I don't know about you guys, but I really don't think there's any way out of this.
Moderators: Elvis, DrVolin, Jeff
by 82_28 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:57 pm
by stillrobertpaulsen » Tue Dec 19, 2017 8:03 pm
82_28 » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:57 pm wrote:
I don't know about you guys, but I really don't think there's any way out of this.
by SonicG » Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:47 pm
We are sleepwalking toward war with North Korea
The risk of nuclear war is real. And it’s growing.
The reality of war with North Korea is almost too terrifying to imagine.
Experts say the North’s artillery could kill tens of thousands of civilians in Seoul, South Korea’s densely populated capital, within the first hours of a conflict. A protracted fight would lead to destruction on the Korean Peninsula on a scale unheard of since the Korean War in the 1950s, with millions of deaths on both sides.
The North’s nuclear missiles could easily reach Tokyo; most major American cities are also within their range. Imagine a nuclear strike on New York City — hundreds of thousands of Americans dead or irradiated in a catastrophe that would dwarf 9/11 by multiple orders of magnitude — and you start to understand what’s at risk here.
But here’s the genuinely scary thing. Numerous conversations with US policymakers, former US government officials, and experts all point to one disturbing conclusion: Far from being unthinkable, a war with North Korea is becoming more likely by the day.
“We are far closer to actual conflict over North Korea than the American people realize,” says Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), an Iraq War veteran and Purple Heart recipient. “Everything we’re doing shows a military that, in my personal opinion, has turned the corner ... the president is likely to make this decision [to attack], and we need to be ready.”
North Korea’s escalating behavior — most notably its recent 2017 tests of powerful nuclear bombs and intercontinental ballistic missiles — has prompted an extremely aggressive response from President Trump. He has threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea, and to respond to its missile tests with “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” He has tweeted that negotiations with the North have made “fools of US negotiators," that the secretary of state was “wasting his time” trying to talk North Korea, and that “only one thing will work” when it comes to fixing the North Korea standoff — seemingly implying a willingness to use force.
There are two reasons to take all of this saber rattling seriously. First, the president might mean what he says: There’s a real chance that he and some of his top advisers truly believe Kim Jong Un’s recent behavior proves that he can’t be deterred and that launching a military strike against now, before the North’s nuclear program gets any stronger, is the least bad option.
....
https://www.vox.com/world/2017/12/18/16 ... -korea-war
by Karmamatterz » Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:08 pm
by SonicG » Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:32 am
by SonicG » Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:34 am
This Is the Problem With President Trump's National Security Strategy
By IAN BREMMER December 19, 2017
President Trump made quite a show on Monday of heralding the release of his administration’s new National Security Strategy. It’s an impressive document, one that offers a serious roadmap to protect the homeland, promote American prosperity, secure peace through strength, and extend U.S. influence globally. Trump used the occasion to tout what he considers his most impressive accomplishments and to make clear that this document reflects not only his administration’s ambitions but his personal plans, as well. A few problems:
One, if, as the strategy document asserts, the president wants to promote U.S. values and expand U.S. influence around the world, he’s going to need help. U.S. rivals are stronger than they used to be, and U.S. influence has diminished as the Cold War recedes into history. To pressure North Korea, press China on trade, beat back challenges from Russia, exert more influence in the Middle East and battle terrorism, he’s going to need allies. The Middle East is only becoming more combustible. ISIS is defeated in Iraq and Syria, but its fighters are returning home and posing new threats, and the group’s influence continues in cyberspace. These are not battles that should be fought without friends.
When President Trump walked away from the Transpacific Partnership, an enormous trade deal that includes many of China’s neighbors, earlier this year, he passed on an opportunity to strengthen ties with Asian partners. By allowing NATO members to question his commitment to the Atlantic Alliance, he encouraged them to hedge their bets on Washington by improving relations with Beijing. By walking away from the Paris Climate Accord, he allowed China’s President Xi Jinping to claim the high ground on global environmental activism. (It’s noteworthy that this new document doesn’t mention climate change as a threat to U.S. national security.) The president doesn’t seem to see the need for allies.
Two, the first time the president tweets something that appears to contradict the new strategy, how should the world understand the contradiction? Does Trump believe his own strategy? How does the principle of “America First” square with plans to promote democracy in other countries? How much will the administration expect taxpayers to invest in the democracy promotion project? The strategy doesn’t answer these questions, and the distance between Trump’s rhetoric and some of the more high-minded, values-based principles in the document obscure more than they reveal. In fact, the speech Trump used to introduce the document had plenty of contradictions of its own. He would have done better to simply release the strategy.
Three, leaders lead by example. Everyone in the world can see that the United States has become a bitterly divided country, and that there is no longer any pretense that “politics stops at the water’s edge.” There is as much petty partisan bickering over foreign policy as over domestic policy. In that sense, the Cold War era is well and truly finished. Add the president’s indifference to rule of law in the United States, and there is little chance that the governments and citizens of other countries will welcome Washington’s advice on how to build a healthy democracy.
U.S. influence around the world weakened during the Obama years. The pace has quickened under President Trump. Nothing in the new National Security Strategy will change that, because actions still speak louder than words. The problem is not the message but the messenger.
http://time.com/5071547/donald-trump-na ... trategy-2/
by stillrobertpaulsen » Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:23 pm
Trump says privately that a terror attack could save him and GOP from 2018 election bloodbath: report
David Ferguson
17 Jan 2018 at 09:35 ET
Donald Trump stands for the national anthem (screen grab)
Faced with the likelihood of a “blue tsunami” in the 2018 midterm elections, President Donald Trump is holding out hope that terrorists will attack the country, reported the Washington Post on Wednesday.
“In private conversations,” said the Post, “Trump has told advisers that he doesn’t think the 2018 election has to be as bad as others are predicting. He has referenced the 2002 midterms, when George W. Bush and Republicans fared better after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, these people said.”
Matthew Yglesias at Vox.com wrote, “(T)his is a frightening line of thought for an incumbent president and his team to be entertaining.”
“(I)f the president and his top staff are not so concerned with democracy but purely political power, that’s a terrifying proposition,” said Yglesias.
If Trump believes that a terror attack will be a boon to his political fortunes, asked Vox, “How hard is he really working to keep the country safe?”
by seemslikeadream » Sun Mar 04, 2018 11:47 am
seemslikeadream » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:04 pm wrote:
The $1bn hostage deal that enraged Qatar’s Gulf rivals
Doha reportedly paid al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win release of royal hunting party
Saudi Arabia moves to tame upstart Qatar
Members of Iran-backed militia Kata’eb Hizbollah, which kidnapped the Qataris in 2015, on parade in Baghdad © Reuters
6 HOURS AGO by: Erika Solomon in Beirut
Qatar paid up to $1bn to release members of the Gulf state’s royal family who were kidnapped in Iraq while on a hunting trip, according to people involved in the hostage deal — one of the triggers behind Gulf states’ dramatic decision to cut ties with Doha.
Commanders of militant groups and government officials in the region told the Financial Times that Doha spent the money in a transaction that secured the release of 26 members of a Qatari falconry party in southern Iraq and about 50 militants captured by jihadis in Syria. By their telling, Qatar paid off two of the most frequently blacklisted forces of the Middle East in one fell swoop: an al-Qaeda affiliate fighting in Syria and Iranian security officials.
The deal, which was concluded in April, heightened concerns among Qatar’s neighbours about the small gas-rich state’s role in a region plagued by conflict and bitter rivalries. And on Monday, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain took the extraordinary step of cutting off diplomatic ties and transport links to Qatar, alleging the country fuels extremism and terrorism.
“The ransom payments are the straw that broke the camel’s back,” said one Gulf observer.
Doha denies it backs terrorist groups and dismissed the blockade by its neighbours as “founded on allegations that have no basis in fact”. It said it could not immediately respond to a request for comment on the hostage deal. But a person close to the Qatari government acknowledged that “payments” were made. The person was unaware of the amounts or where the money went.
Qatar, a US ally that hosts an American military base, has long drawn the ire of its neighbours, who consider Doha an irritating regional maverick. The world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas, it has used its immense wealth to court relations from London to Washington and Tokyo.
But critics accuse it of seeking to punch above its weight diplomatically, meddling in regional affairs and using the Arabic channel of Al Jazeera, the satellite television network it set up, as a propaganda tool.
Doha has a history of reaching out to all kinds of controversial groups, from rebels in Sudan’s Darfur region to the Taliban in Afghanistan and Hamas in Gaza. Qatar touts itself as a neutral player that can act as an intermediary in regional conflicts. But its critics, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, allege it also uses such interventions to play both sides and fund radical Islamist groups, most recently in Libya and Syria. And to Doha’s critics, the hostage deal was further evidence of that role.
Doha’s alleged support for terrorism pits vital US allies in Middle East against each other
“If you want to know how Qatar funds jihadis, look no further than the hostage deal,” said a Syrian opposition figure who has worked with an al-Qaeda mediator on hostage swaps in Syria. “And this isn’t the first — it is one of a series since the beginning of the war.”
The Financial Times spoke to people involved on both sides of the hostage swap deal, including two government officials in the region, three Iraqi Shia militia leaders and two Syrian opposition figures.
Around $700m was paid both to Iranian figures and the regional Shia militias they support, according to regional government officials. They added that $200m to $300m went to Islamist groups in Syria, most of that to Tahrir al-Sham, a group with links to al-Qaeda.
Those who spoke to the FT said the deal highlighted how Qatar has allegedly used hostage payments to bankroll jihadis in Syria. But to its Gulf neighbours, the biggest issue is likely to be the fact that Doha could have paid off their main regional rival, Iran, which they accuse of fuelling conflicts in the Arab world.
This particular saga began when an Iranian-backed Iraqi Shia militia, known as Kata’eb Hizbollah, kidnapped the Qataris in December 2015. Three Iraqi militia leaders say the hostages were held in Iran.
Kata’eb Hizbollah is an Iraqi group but it is seen as having links with Iran’s main regional proxy, Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant group. The latter is helping Iran back Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, in his country’s six-year conflict.
Two regional diplomats said they believed one of the Iraqi group’s motives for the kidnapping was to give Hizbollah and Iran leverage to negotiate the release of Shia fighters kidnapped by the radical Sunni group Tahrir al-Sham in Syria.
Tahrir al-Sham, in previous iterations, was an al-Qaeda branch. It claims it has broken the connection, but the international community still views it as an affiliate.
The hostage transaction was also linked to a separate agreement to facilitate the evacuation of four towns in Syria, two surrounded by jihadi forces and two besieged by Shia militias, say Syrian rebels and diplomats.
One western diplomat said the arrangement provided Qatar the “cover” to finance the hostage deal. “Iran and Qatar had long been looking for a cover to do this [hostage] deal, and they finally found it,” he said.
According to two opposition figures with close contact with the groups paid, Qatar used the evacuation arrangement to pay $120m-$140m to Tahrir al-Sham. Another $80m, they said, went to the Islamist group Ahrar al-Sham.
“The Qataris pay anyone and everyone, to what end? They have only brought about our ruin,” said a Syrian rebel commander, who gave details of the payments but asked not to be identified.
A regional Arab official said the total paid to jihadi groups was closer to $300m.
Foreign fighters pour into Syria to bolster Assad regime
Shia from Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and beyond join sectarian conflict
“So, if you add that up to the other $700m they paid to Iran and its proxies, that means Qatar actually spent about a billion dollars on this crazy deal,” he said.
The Iraqi Shia militia commanders in Iraq, all from hardline Iranian-backed groups, said that, to their knowledge, Iran had obtained around $400m after giving them a payment they would not disclose. They agreed to share some details because they were unhappy about their share of the payment.
“They [the Iranians] took the lion’s share,” said a member of one of the Iranian-backed Shia militias in Iraq. “That’s caused some of us to be frustrated, because that was not the deal.”
“The hostage deal was perhaps a miscalculation,” said Gerd Nonneman, professor of international relations at Georgetown University in Qatar. “This would have been done in good faith in order to return hostages — there would have been no intention to funnel money to Iran.”
Another confusing chapter of the deal is that Haidar al-Abadi, the Iraqi prime minister, said in April his government had seized hundreds of millions of dollars, which Iraqi officials said arrived on Qatari planes “illegally”. It is not clear if this is money is part of the sums mentioned above or an additional amount.
“The money all came in suitcases. Can you imagine this?” said one senior official.
https://www.ft.com/content/dd033082-49e ... 3e61754ec6Jared Kushner relationship ➡️U.A.E. ambassador in Washington, Yousef al-Otaiba➡️Foundation for Defense of Democracies (Adelson & Netanyahu):Jay McKenzie @JamesFourM 10h10 hours ago
More
Replying to @JamesFourM @ellyn_gesell and 3 others
The leaks show Qatar is involved with terrorist organizations. Adelson's research institute was aware & trying to deflect blame onto UAE.Why? Only 3 weeks ago Trump lavished praise on Qatar in part because of their work with Saudi Arabia to "combat terror."
Rudy Giuliani’s Conflicts Of Interest Would Place Donald Trump In A Bind
The GOP nominee vilified Hillary Clinton for her ties to Qatar. The former New York City mayor has his own, though.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/ru ... 8a014aa83d
Trump Russia Dossier Decoded: Yes, There Really Was A Massive Oil Deal
https://thesternfacts.com/trump-russia- ... 3370349b67
seemslikeadream » Thu Jun 15, 2017 6:58 am wrote:seemslikeadream » Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:12 am wrote:This is the real story behind the economic crisis unfolding in Qatar
Only Shakespeare’s plays could come close to describing such treachery – the comedies, of course
Robert Fisk @indyvoices 5 hours ago
Doha, Qatar. The nation is now embroiled in a diplomatic and economic crisis – but what part is Saudi Arabia playing in stoking that crisis? Reuters
The Qatar crisis proves two things: the continued infantilisation of the Arab states, and the total collapse of the Sunni Muslim unity supposedly created by Donald Trump’s preposterous attendance at the Saudi Muslim summit two weeks ago.
After promising to fight to the death against Shia Iranian “terror”, Saudi Arabia and its closest chums have now ganged up on one of the wealthiest of their neighbours, Qatar, for being a fountainhead of “terror”. Only Shakespeare’s plays could come close to describing such treachery. Shakespeare’s comedies, of course.
For, truly, there is something vastly fantastical about this charade. Qatar’s citizens have certainly contributed to Isis. But so have Saudi Arabia’s citizens. No Qataris flew the 9/11 planes into New York and Washington. All but four of the 19 killers were Saudi. Bin Laden was not a Qatari. He was a Saudi. But Bin Laden favoured Qatar’s al-Jazeera channel with his personal broadcasts, and it was al-Jazeera who tried to give spurious morality to the al-Qaeda/Jabhat al-Nusrah desperadoes of Syria by allowing their leader hours of free airtime to explain what a moderate, peace-loving group they all were.
Saudi Arabia cuts ties with Qatar over terror links
First, let’s just get rid of the hysterically funny bits of this story. I see that Yemen is breaking air links with Qatar. Quite a shock for the poor Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, since Yemen – under constant bombardment by his former Saudi and Emirati chums – doesn’t have a single serviceable airliner left with which to create, let alone break, an air link.
The Maldives have also broken relations with Qatar. Be sure this has nothing to do with the recent promise of a Saudi five-year loan facility of $300m to the Maldives, the proposal of a Saudi property company to invest $100m in a family resort in the Maldives and a promise by Saudi Islamic scholars to spend $100,000 on 10 “world class” mosques in the Maldives. And let us not mention the rather large number of Isis and other Islamist cultists who arrived to fight for Isis in Iraq and Syria from – well, the Maldives.
Now the Qatari emir hasn’t enough troops to defend his little country should the Saudis decide to request him to ask their army to enter Qatar to restore stability – as the Saudis persuaded the King of Bahrain to do back in 2011. But Sheikh Tamim no doubt hopes that the massive US military air base in Qatar will deter such Saudi generosity. When I asked his father, Sheikh Hamad (later uncharitably deposed by Tamim) why he didn’t kick the Americans out of Qatar, he replied: “Because if I did, my Arab brothers would invade me.”
Like father, like son, I suppose. God Bless America.
All this started – so we are supposed to believe – with an alleged hacking of the Qatar News Agency, which produced some uncomplimentary but distressingly truthful remarks by Qatar’s emir about the need to maintain a relationship with Iran.
Qatar denied the veracity of the story. The Saudis decided it was true and broadcast the contents on their own normally staid (and immensely boring) state television network. The upstart emir, so went the message, had gone too far this time. The Saudis decided policy in the Gulf, not miniscule Qatar. Wasn’t that what Donald Trump’s visit proved?
But the Saudis had other problems to worry about. Kuwait, far from cutting relations with Qatar, is now acting as a peacemaker between Qatar and the Saudis and Emiratis. The emirate of Dubai is quite close to Iran and has tens of thousands of Iranian expatriates, and is hardly following Abu Dhabi’s example of anti-Qatari wrath. Oman was even staging joint naval manoeuvres with Iran a couple of months ago. Pakistan long ago declined to send its army to help the Saudis in Yemen because the Saudis asked for only Sunni soldiers and no Shia soldiers; the Pakistani army was understandably outraged to realise that Saudi Arabia was trying to sectarianise its military personnel. Pakistan’s former army commander, General Raheel Sharif, is rumoured to be about to resign as head of the Saudi-sponsored Muslim alliance to fight “terror”.
President-Field Marshal al-Sissi of Egypt has been roaring against Qatar for its support of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood – and Qatar does indeed support the now banned group which Sissi is falsely claiming to be part of Isis – but significantly Egypt too, though the recipient of Saudi millions, does not intend to supply its own troops to bolster the Saudis in its catastrophic Yemen war. Besides, Sissi needs his Egyptian soldiers at home to fight off Isis attacks and maintain, along with Israel, the siege of the Palestinian Gaza Strip.
But if we look a bit further down the road, it’s not difficult to see what really worries the Saudis. For Qatar also maintains quiet links with the Assad regime. It helped secure the release of Syrian Christian nuns in Jabhat al-Nusrah hands and has helped release Lebanese soldiers from Isis hands in western Syria. When the nuns emerged from captivity, they thanked both Bashar al-Assad and Qatar. And there are growing suspicions in the Gulf that Qatar has much larger ambitions: to fund the rebuilding of post-war Syria. Even if Assad remained as president, Syria’s debt to Qatar would place the nation under Qatari economic control.
And this would give tiny Qatar two golden rewards. It would give it a land empire to match its al-Jazeera media empire. And it would extend its largesse to the Syrian territories which many oil companies would like to use as a pipeline route from the Gulf to Europe via Turkey or via tankers from the Syrian port of Lattakia. For Europeans, such a route would reduce the chances of Russian oil blackmail, and make sea-going oil routes less vulnerable if vessels did not have to move through the Gulf of Hormuz.
So rich pickings for Qatar – or for Saudi Arabia, of course, if the assumptions on US power of the two emirs, Hamad and Tamim, prove worthless. A Saudi military force in Qatar would allow Riyadh to gobble up all the liquid gas in the emirate. But surely the peace-loving “anti-terror” Saudis – let’s forget the head-chopping for a moment – would never contemplate such a fate for an Arab brother.
So let’s hope that for the moment, the routes of Qatar Airways are the only parts of the Qatari body politic to get chopped off.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/qat ... 78616.htmlQatar to Sign Deal for U.S. F-15s, Sources Say as Gulf Crisis Continues
by Anthony Capaccio
June 14, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/arti ... -continuesseemslikeadream » Thu Jun 08, 2017 6:18 am wrote:What’s Happening in the Persian Gulf
by Derek Davison
Early Monday morning, five Arab states—Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen—along with the Maldives, broke all diplomatic and physical ties with the Persian Gulf emirate of Qatar. All six countries say they are withdrawing their diplomats from Qatar within 48 hours and expect Qatari diplomats to reciprocate within the same time frame, and other Qatari nationals in those countries have two weeks to leave. Those countries have also cut all land, sea, and air contact with Qatar—meaning, among other things, that Qatar’s land border with Saudi Arabia is now closed, airlines from those six countries will no longer fly into Qatar, and Qatar Airways flights have been barred from their airspace.
In its official statement explaining this move, Riyadh noted Qatar’s “grave violations” against Saudi Arabia and Bahrain:
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has taken this decisive decision as a result of grave violations being committed by the authorities in Doha over the past years in secret and public aiming at dividing internal Saudi ranks, instigating against the State, infringing on its sovereignty, adopting various terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at destabilising the region including the Muslim Brotherhood Group, Daesh (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda, promoting the ethics and plans of these groups through its media permanently, supporting the activities of Iranian-backed terrorist groups in the governorate of Qatif of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Kingdom of Bahrain, financing, adopting and sheltering extremists who seek to undermine the stability and unity of the homeland at home and abroad, and using the media that seek to fuel the strife internally; and it was clear to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia the support and backing from the authorities in Doha for coup Al-Houthi militias even after the announcement of the Coalition to Support the Legitimacy in Yemen.
The Kingdom has also taken this decision in solidarity with the Kingdom of Bahrain being subjected to terrorist campaigns and operations supported by the authorities in Doha.
The statement offered no evidence in support of these charges, only one of which (Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood) is well documented. The charge that Doha has been aiding Houthi militants in Yemen is particularly interesting given that Qatari soldiers have been participating in, and reportedly suffering on behalf of, the Saudi-led, anti-Houthi military coalition. In response, Qatar’s government declared that there was “no legitimate justification” for this move and argued that it was an effort to “impose guardianship” on Qatar and thus was a “violation of its sovereignty.”
This is a fast-developing story, but certain core elements of it appear to have taken shape.
A History of Shaky Relations
Saudi Arabia and Qatar have had a love-hate relationship for over two decades—a fact acknowledged in Monday’s statement from Riyadh: “Since 1995, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its brothers have made strenuous and continued efforts to urge the authorities in Doha to abide by its commitments and agreements.” The Saudis didn’t select that date at random. In 1995, the former Emir of Qatar, Hamad b. Khalifa Al Thani, overthrew his father, Khalifa b. Hamad Al Thani, in a bloodless coup. Sheikh Hamad abdicated in 2013 in favor of his son, Tamim, who is the current Qatari ruler. Hamad’s decision to maintain friendly relations with Israel (Qatar broke off those relations over the 2009 Gaza War) was a source of tension with the Saudis. For several years the two countries also disputed the precise location of their land border, before finally reaching an agreement on its location in 2008. Monday’s events come out of this years-long tension.
The immediate cause of the diplomatic break can be traced back to the 2011 Arab Spring. Unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which quickly opposed any revolutionary movements that threatened established Arab autocracies, Qatar decided to bet on the revolutionaries and used some of its vast fossil-fuel wealth to support them. In particular, Sheikh Hamad decided to throw its weight behind Muslim Brotherhood movements in Egypt, Libya, and elsewhere, building off of his long-standing support for Brotherhood branches around the Arab world, including Hamas. This represented a radical shift from Hamad’s previous “no problems” foreign policy, which presumably reflected Hamad’s desire to increase Qatar’s prominence on the geopolitical stage commensurate with its financial clout. Under Hamad, and then Tamim, Qatar has adopted a number of foreign policies that have at times, placed it at odds with its fellow Gulf states:
Qatar was an early supporter of Egypt’s Arab Spring uprising and the elected Muslim Brotherhood-led government that succeeded former dictator Hosni Mubarak. Doha pumped an estimated $10 billion into Mohamed Morsi’s government and lined up deals to sell natural gas to Egypt and help rebuild the Suez Canal. In contrast, Riyadh, which loathes the Muslim Brotherhood, has poured at least $12 billion into Egyptian coffers since the military coup that overthrew Morsi and brought Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to power in 2013. Qatar’s support for Morsi explains why the Saudis initiated this boycott and why Egypt joined it.
Qatar supported the now-defunct General National Congress in Libya. The Islamist GNC, based in Tripoli was one of two competing governments, alongside the House of Representatives based in Tobruk, that contested control of Libya after the Arab Spring-driven fall of Muammar Gaddafi. It has since been driven mostly out of the picture by the country’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord, also based in Tripoli. The UAE, in contrast, supported and continues to support the secularist Tobruk government (which has also announced that it has broken off ties with Qatar, but since it’s not a recognized government the impact of that decision is minimal). For a time the two Gulf states were effectively fighting a proxy war in Libya that helped destabilize that country and contributed to tensions in the Gulf.
Qatar has also played an active role supporting and arming Syrian rebel groups, including—allegedly—extremist groups like the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front (also known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and even the Islamic State (ISIS or IS). It’s possible that this has contributed to inter-Gulf tensions. But as the Saudis have allegedly been supporting these same rebel groups it’s hard to see what the problem would have been. However, in April, Qatar was reportedly behind a negotiated settlement to evacuate four besieged Syrian towns, a deal Doha reportedly reached through negotiations with Iran. Qatar’s cordial relationship with Iran, in addition to its support for the Muslim Brotherhood, is one of Riyadh’s chief grievances.
Qatar has also long supported Hamas, whose biggest foreign patron has consistently been Iran. And with the Saudis coming together with Israel over their shared hostility toward Iran, Riyadh would certainly not have viewed that support for Hamas favorably.
There’s one other elephant in this room, which is Qatar’s support of the Al Jazeera network. The Saudis and Emiratis in particular have long criticized the news channel for promoting Muslim Brotherhood voices and for criticizing the policies of other Gulf states. After announcing the diplomatic cut off on Monday, Riyadh shut down Al Jazeera’s local offices.
This is not the first time these tensions have come to a boiling point. In March 2014, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE cut diplomatic ties with Qatar over Doha’s support for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. They did not sever land, sea, and air contacts with Qatar, but it did take eight months for relations to finally be restored. More recently, the Saudis and Emiratis objected to alleged remarks given by Sheikh Tamim at a commencement ceremony, in which the Qatari Emir was said to have spoken favorably of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas while denigrating Saudi and American foreign policy. Although the Qatar News Agency reported this speech, the Qataris insist that QNA was hacked and that the speech never took place. Nonetheless, both Saudi and Emirati state media have reported on the speech and expressed anger over its contents, apparently refusing to believe Qatar’s hacking explanation.
The Washington Factor
Monday’s diplomatic crisis also has roots in President Donald Trump’s recent visit to Riyadh. During his trip, Trump fully embraced the Saudis’ anti-Iran, anti-political Islamist view of the region, and that support has emboldened the Saudis to take a harder line against Arab states that deviate from their foreign policy aims:
“You have a shift in the balance of power in the Gulf now because of the new presidency: Trump is strongly opposed to political Islam and Iran,” said Jean-Marc Rickli, head of global risk and resilience at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy.
“He is totally aligned with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, who also want no compromise with either Iran or the political Islam promoted by the Muslim Brotherhood.”
The Trump administration has had little to say about the dispute apart from calling for dialogue and offering to mediate between the Saudis and Qataris. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that this diplomatic rupture shouldn’t have “any significant impact” on U.S. counter-terrorism efforts, but it’s difficult to know how he can determine that at this point. The centerpiece of Trump’s Riyadh visit was supposed to be the creation of a broad coalition of Islamic states working together to combat extremism and terrorism. That coalition is already falling apart a scant two weeks after Trump’s trip. The U.S. military said Monday that it has no plans to change its posture in Qatar, where the al-Udeid air base is one of U.S. Central Command’s primary forward operating bases.
Additionally, it’s hard to avoid connecting Monday’s events with revelations over the weekend about the hacking of Yousef al-Otaiba’s personal email. Emails leaked to The Intercept and Huffington Post show that Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the U.S., who was once profiled by Huffington for his “extraordinary influence” in Washington, has been lobbying the Trump administration to break America’s long-standing alliance with Qatar. From Huffington’s report on the leak:
In private correspondence, Otaiba ? an extremely powerful figure in Washington, D.C., who is reportedly in “in almost constant phone and email contact,” with Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s adviser and son-in-law ? is seen pushing for the U.S. to close down its military base in Qatar and otherwise poking at issues that could drive a wedge between the U.S. and that Arab nation. He also says that his country’s de facto ruler is supportive of a wave of anti-Qatar criticism in the U.S. that the Gulf state last month called a smear campaign and that has prompted behind-the-scenes alarm inside the U.S. government.
The leaked emails also suggest that Otaiba has had a close, ongoing relationship with the pro-Israel think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), including collaboration on anti-Qatar policymaking:
The emails detail the proposed agenda of an upcoming meeting between FDD and UAE government officials that is scheduled for June 11-14. Dubowitz and Hannah are listed as attending, as well as Jonathan Schanzer, FDD vice president for research. UAE officials requested for meetings include Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince who commands the armed forces.
The agenda includes extensive discussion between the two on Qatar. They are scheduled to discuss, for instance, “Al Jazeera as an instrument of regional instability.” (Al Jazeera is based in Qatar.)
On Monday afternoon, Buzzfeed’s Borzhou Daragahi tweeted that “two separate sources” had told him that Monday’s diplomatic moves were “driven by” that upcoming FDD/UAE conference. Given FDD’s staunchly pro-Israel orientation and Qatar’s ties to Hamas, this collaboration over mutual antipathy toward Doha is unsurprising.
What Happens Now
As noted above, the last time a diplomatic rupture with Qatar occurred it took eight months to repair relations. But this rupture seems more serious—for one thing, more countries are involved, and for another the countries in question have also cut off all physical contact with Qatar in addition to diplomatic contact. In the near term, it may be difficult for the Qataris to move around, to export their natural gas, and even to obtain food, since much of Qatar’s imported food comes overland via the Saudi border. Indeed, there are already stories of people making runs on Qatari grocery stores.
In the longer term, it will be difficult for the Saudis and others to completely isolate Qatar internationally. The Qataris have good relations with several international and regional powers, including the U.S., but also Russia, the European Union, and Turkey, with which it has a defense agreement. And if things really get rough, Doha has a diplomatic “nuclear option,” which is to place itself under Iranian protection. Tehran has already called for a peaceful resolution to the dispute and has offered to send food to Qatar if needed. Qatar’s enormous fossil fuel wealth is another factor that would make it hard to isolate the emirate for very long. It’s already not clear whether any other nations will join the six that have already severed ties with Qatar. It’s doubtful that even the two remaining Gulf Cooperation Council members, Kuwait and Oman, will join in.
The ultimate Saudi goal here is as yet unknown. Riyadh may want Qatar to sever its relations with Iran altogether and/or take tangible steps to divest itself of any ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. It may want Qatar to shut down Al Jazeera. Or it may want something more drastic. Last week, Salman al-Ansari, president of the Saudi American Public Relation Affairs Committee in Washington, seemed to warn Sheikh Tamim via Twitter that he could wind up like ousted Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi over Qatar’s relations with Iran and the Saudis.
And, again, the official Saudi statement and its mention of “1995” as the year Riyadh’s troubles with Doha began was not random. The Saudis are quite clearly identifying Qatar’s current emir and his predecessor as the problem, and there’s an unsubtle message there for others in Qatar who might be interested in finding a solution. The Saudis allegedly attempted to interfere in Qatari dynastic politics once before. In 1996, there was an attempt to place Khalifa b. Hamad Al Thani back on the Qatari throne allegedly with some level of Saudi and Emirati support. It could be that Riyadh is attempting once more to engineer a political change in Doha.
Photo: Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar
http://lobelog.com/whats-happening-in-the-persian-gulf/Qatar-Gulf Crisis: Geoeconomic Implications
by Jim Lobe
In light of the fast-moving events in the Gulf over the past couple of days, LobeLog interviewed Sara Vakhshouri, a Gulf expert who specializes in the region’s energy markets. A long-time contributor to LobeLog, Vakhshouri is president of SVB Energy International, a Washington-based strategic energy consulting firm that provides critical advice on the global energy market to private companies, governments, think tanks, investment banks, and media organizations.
Jim Lobe: You indicated in a tweet on Tuesday that Iran stands to gain a lot from the Saudi-led actions against Qatar. In what ways is it likely that Iran can or will take advantage of this turn of events?
Sara Vakhshouri: Even though historically there have been differences and disagreements between Qatar and Saudi Arabia particularly with regard to their foreign policy and approach toward the conflicted areas in the region, the current diplomatic rift between Saudi Arabia and Qatar is unprecedented. Any rift between the GCC members weakens the Arab nations particularly Saudi Arabia’s policy and approach toward/against Iran.
The current conflict between Saudi and Qatar also drags other Arab countries in to this game; UAE, Egypt and Bahrain have supported the Qatari isolation. This again weakens the ties between the Arab nations and GCC members, which again reduces the influence and effectiveness of GCC policies, especially those against Iran.
While I don’t think that Iran sees this as an opportunity to poke or provoke Saudi Arabia, the current situation creates a strategic opportunity for Iran to weaken the ties among GCC members and to have an impact on Saudi Arab alliances against Iran and Iran’s interest in the region.
The current situation could also offers economic profits for Iran. Saudi Arabia revoked Qatar Airways license to fly over or land in Saudi Arabia. Iranian officials estimate that this could increase Qatar Airways’ use of Iranian airspace up to 20%, which means higher air transit income for Iran. In addition, the 40% of Qatar’s food supplies that come from Saudi Arabia could be replaced by Iran. It’s the closest and most available logistic partner Qatar could chose for supplying its immediate needs.
JL: But is there some risk undertaken by Qatar if it does move closer or become more dependent on Iran as a result of this crisis?
SV: Even though there has been a close relation between Qatar and Iran and, on the other side, historical disagreement with Saudi and its Arab allies, most of Qatar’s strategic depth is located alongside the Saudi Arabia and UAE borders. Also, the historical, cultural, economic, trade and energy ties between Qatar and other GCC members make it hard to imagine that the current status quo would last long. With the help of other Arab nations this conflict would most likely be resolved soon. Qataris realize that the price of choosing Iran could well be the loss if its Arab neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia. The largest US military base in Middle East is located in Qatar. By getting very close to Iran and directly defying Saudi Arabia, Qatar will damage its relation with US especially under the Trump administration.
This mostly looks like a strong message from Saudi Arabia to anyone who wants to have close ties with and benefit from its relation with the Kingdom. The Saudi government has invested significantly in its relations and alliances with different Arab and non-Arab countries. Qatar’s isolation is a strong message that any country that chooses to go against Saudi interests in the region will pay a heavy price—the complete disconnect from any relations or any commercial and political ties with Saudi and its Arab allies.
The current Saudi attitude is very much like the US approach toward those countries that are threatening its national interest. It seems that the new leadership in Saudi Arabia has put an end to one-sided investments in its relations with other countries and is very keen to make sure they receive a return on every dime they invest outside their borders. The kingdom’s new approach to pursuing its national interest is to form and invest in alliances and determine whether their allies comply with their conditions.
In this case, even though they support Saudi policy, the UAE and Egypt are heavily reliant on gas imports from Qatar. Yet, they are still backing Saudi Arabia in isolating Qatar. One-third of Egyptian LNG imports used to meet the country’s electricity demands, for example, is imported from Qatar.
JL: What geo-economic implications are there to this crisis, particularly with respect to the regional and global energy perspective?
SV: We do not expect that Qatar’s LNG supply to non-Arab consumers will be interrupted, but the change of trade flow and replacement of natural gas exports to UAE could have an impact on LNG prices. UAE imports about 1.8 billion cubic feet/day of gas from Qatar via the Dolphin pipeline. This is a significant volume. Even though there is no shortage of supplies in the LNG market, which is bearish at the moment, replacing the amount that Qatar supplies with non-Qatari LNG could have an impact on global prices.
Egypt’s story is different, even though this country is heavily dependent on its LNG imports from Qatar. Egypt has no direct deals with Qatar, as traders like Glencore, Vitol, and Trafigura not only deliver the Qatari LNG to Egypt but also have legal ownership of the cargo from the time it is onloaded at Qatar’s port until its delivery. These traders can also replace Qatar’s LNG with non-Qatari LNG in deliveries to Egypt, if necessary.
JL: Given the fact that Iran and Qatar share a hugely productive gas field, Tehran presumably considers Qatar’s fate much more important to its national interest than Bahrain, for example. Do you think that Tehran would react more aggressively if the Saudis actually intervene militarily or support a coup in Qatar in order to make it much more responsive to Saudi interests?
SV: Iran and Qatar have historically had good relations even though Iranian officials on many occasions complained that Qatar is extracting more natural gas from their shared gas field. At the same time, however, Iran knows very well that it suffers technical disadvantages in exploiting its side of the field (South Pars) and that exploration and development of the Qatari side began decades before and are thus far more advanced. It is thus entirely understandable for Qatar to be way ahead of Iran in total extraction of natural gas from this reservoir. At the same time, Qatar is not alone among the GCC nations in maintaining good relations with Iran. Kuwait and Oman have also enjoyed generally good ties with Tehran. In some cases, they either supported Iran’s policies or, in any event, didn’t oppose them.
Obviously, if there is any Saudi intervention or pro-Saudi coup in Qatar, it is not hard to imagine that Iran would react immediately either directly or indirectly through its proxy groups. Moreover, today’s twin Islamic State attacks against Iran’s parliament and the late Leader’s shrine in Tehran — two key and well-guarded targets that may been chosen precisely to undermine confidence in the regime’s ability to maintain security — could possibly radicalize Iran’s discourse and approach toward what it perceives as extremism and any threat to its domestic security and broader national interest in the region, especially regarding Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. That possibility takes on added force given last month’s declaration by Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman that effectively closed the door to any possibility of negotiations or dialogue with Iran. “We are a primary target for the Iranian regime,” he was quoted as saying. “We won’t wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia. Instead, we’ll work so that the battle is for them in Iran.”
Given the context, it’s not difficult to imagine that Iran will take extreme measures both internally and externally to secure its borders and fight against the Islamic State and whoever it believes are its supporters. We must wait and see.
http://lobelog.com/qatar-gulf-crisis-ge ... lications/
MSNBC reporting White House sources says Trump "may not have known" the US has troops based in Qatar.seemslikeadream » Tue Jun 06, 2017 5:38 pm wrote:FIRST ON CNN: US suspects Russian hackers planted fake news behind Qatar crisis
Shimon Prokupecz
By Evan Perez and Shimon Prokupecz, CNN
Updated 6:34 PM ET, Tue June 6, 2017
Sources: Russia planted fake Qatar crisis news
Washington (CNN)US investigators believe Russian hackers breached Qatar's state news agency and planted a fake news report that contributed to a crisis among the US' closest Gulf allies, according to US officials briefed on the investigation.
The FBI recently sent a team of investigators to Doha to help the Qatari government investigate the alleged hacking incident, Qatari and US government officials say.
Intelligence gathered by the US security agencies indicates that Russian hackers were behind the intrusion first reported by the Qatari government two weeks ago, US officials say. Qatar hosts one of the largest US military bases in the region.
The alleged involvement of Russian hackers intensifies concerns by US intelligence and law enforcement agencies that Russia continues to try some of the same cyber-hacking measures on US allies that intelligence agencies believe it used to meddle in the 2016 elections.
US officials say the Russian goal appears to be to cause rifts among the US and its allies. In recent months, suspected Russian cyber activities, including the use of fake news stories, have turned up amid elections in France, Germany and other countries.
It's not yet clear whether the US has tracked the hackers in the Qatar incident to Russian criminal organizations or to the Russian security services blamed for the US election hacks. One official noted that based on past intelligence, "not much happens in that country without the blessing of the government."
The FBI and CIA declined to comment. A spokeswoman for the Qatari embassy in Washington said the investigation is ongoing and its results would be released publicly soon.
The Qatari government has said a May 23 news report on its Qatar News Agency attributed false remarks to the nation's ruler that appeared friendly to Iran and Israel and questioned whether President Donald Trump would last in office.
Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani told CNN the FBI has confirmed the hack and the planting of fake news.
"Whatever has been thrown as an accusation is all based on misinformation and we think that the entire crisis being based on misinformation," the foreign minister told CNN's Becky Anderson. "Because it was started based on fabricated news, being wedged and being inserted in our national news agency which was hacked and proved by the FBI."
Sheikh Saif Bin Ahmed Al-Thani, director of the Qatari Government Communications Office, confirmed that Qatar's Ministry of Interior is working with the FBI and the United Kingdom's National Crime Agency on the ongoing hacking investigation of the Qatar News Agency.
"The Ministry of Interior will reveal the findings of the investigation when completed," he told CNN.
Partly in reaction to the false news report, Qatar's neighbors, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have cut off economic and political ties, causing a broader crisis.
The report came at a time of escalating tension over accusations Qatar was financing terrorism.
On Tuesday, Trump tweeted criticism of Qatar that mirrors that of the Saudis and others in the region who have long objected to Qatar's foreign policy. He did not address the false news report.
"So good to see the Saudi Arabia visit with the King and 50 countries already paying off," Trump said in a series of tweets. "They said they would take a hard line on funding extremism, and all reference was pointing to Qatar. Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!"
In his tweet, Trump voiced support for the regional blockade of Qatar and cited Qatar's funding of terrorist groups. The Qataris have rejected the terror-funding accusations.
Hours after Trump's tweets, the US State Department said Qatar had made progress on stemming the funding of terrorists but that there was more work to be done.
US and European authorities have complained for years about funding for extremists from Saudi Arabia and other nations in the Gulf region. Fifteen of the 19 9/11 hijackers were Saudi citizens.
Last year during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Obama administration officials raised the issue of Saudi funding to build mosques in Europe and Africa that are helping to spread an ultra-conservative strain of Islam.
US intelligence has long been concerned with what they say is the Russian government's ability to plant fake news in otherwise credible streams, according to US officials.
That concern has surfaced in recent months in congressional briefings by former FBI Director James Comey.
Comey told lawmakers that one reason he decided to bypass his Justice Department bosses in announcing no charges in the probe of Hillary Clinton's private email server was the concern about an apparent fake piece of Russian intelligence. The intelligence suggested the Russians had an email that indicated former Attorney General Loretta Lynch had assured Democrats she wouldn't let the Clinton probe lead to charges.
The FBI came to believe the email was fake, but still feared the Russians could release it to undermine the Justice Department's role in the probe.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/06/politics/ ... index.html
seemslikeadream » Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:51 am wrote:Kushners’ China Deal Flop Was Part of Much Bigger Hunt for Cash
666 FIFTH AVE. FLOOR PLANS
SOURCE: NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE
By David Kocieniewski and Caleb Melby
August 31, 2017
Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and top adviser, wakes up each morning to a growing problem that will not go away. His family’s real estate business, Kushner Cos., owes hundreds of millions of dollars on a 41-story office building on Fifth Avenue. It has failed to secure foreign investors, despite an extensive search, and its resources are more limited than generally understood. As a result, the company faces significant challenges.
Over the past two years, executives and family members have sought substantial overseas investment from previously undisclosed places: South Korea’s sovereign-wealth fund, France’s richest man, Israeli banks and insurance companies, and exploratory talks with a Saudi developer, according to former and current executives. These were in addition to previously reported attempts to raise money in China and Qatar.
JARED KUSHNER
PHOTOGRAPHER: ANDREW HARRER / BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
The family, once one of the largest landlords on the East Coast, sold thousands of apartments to finance its purchase of the tower in 2007 and has borrowed extensively for other purchases. They are walking away from a Brooklyn hotel once considered central to their plans for an office hub. From other properties, they are extracting cash, including tens of millions in borrowed funds from the recently acquired former New York Times building. What’s more, their partner in the Fifth Avenue building, Vornado Realty Trust, headed by Steve Roth, has stood aside, allowing the Kushners to pursue financing on their own.
Kushner Cos. says it will prevail. Laurent Morali, the president, said the company has a variety of contingency plans for the building and its broader portfolio will allow it to sustain any setback. He said he is encouraged by the interest of several potential investors, but declined to name them.
“Reports that portray it as a distressed situation are just not accurate for the building or for the company,” Morali said in an interview on the 15th floor of the building, 666 Fifth Avenue.
But there are challenges all around. The mortgage on their tower is due in 18 months. This has led to concerns that Kushner could use—or has perhaps already used—his official position to prop up the family business despite having divested to close relatives his ownership in many projects to conform with government ethics requirements. Federal investigators are examining Kushner’s finances and business dealings, along with those of other Trump associates, as they probe possible collusion between the Kremlin and the Trump campaign. Kushner has already testified twice before closed congressional committees and denies mixing family business with his official role.
This article, which describes new details of the company’s troubled finances and its overseas fundraising efforts, is based on a review of thousands of pages of financial documents and interviews with more than two dozen executives, business partners, real estate agents, deal participants and analysts. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deals. Some feared legal reprisals or other retaliation from one of the country’s most powerful families.
The portrait that emerges is that of a real estate company established by a pair of penniless Holocaust survivors, its extraordinary expansion by their children, the rise of a grandson to a top White House role and a big bet that has complicated its financial future.
It was 2006—the height of the real-estate market boom—when Kushner Cos. agreed to buy 666 Fifth Avenue for $1.8 billion, then a record for a Manhattan building. All of it was borrowed except for $50 million. The company still holds half of a $1.2 billion mortgage, on which it hasn’t paid a cent. The full amount is due in February 2019.
The strain has become increasingly evident across their holdings. One person familiar with the company’s finances describes the tower, with its low ceilings and outdated floor plan, as the Jenga puzzle piece that could set the empire teetering.
666 FIFTH AVE.
PHOTOGRAPHER: VICTOR J. BLUE / BLOOMBERG
The family’s idea of how to salvage its investment requires razing the building to the ground and constructing an 80-story tower with greatly expanded retail areas and high-end condominiums. No short- or medium-term return can be expected from such an aggressive approach. Even a return over the long run would be speculative, though Morali describes the plan as “ambitious and creative.” That narrows the pool of investors to those interested in something other than profit. Real estate experts say this almost certainly precludes U.S. companies. More likely: a foreign firm looking to get capital out of its country or seeking a trophy Manhattan property.
Before Trump began his rise to the presidency and the 36-year-old Kushner became his senior adviser, 666 Fifth Avenue struggled to attract serious offers. Meetings the Kushners requested were often rejected. After Trump’s nomination, billions of dollars in Asian and Middle Eastern money came under discussion. Two potential deals that made it to advanced stages, with China’sAnbang Insurance Group and a top Qatari sheikh, fell apart.
JARED KUSHNER SITTING WITH OTHER SENIOR WHITE HOUSE STAFF
PHOTOGRAPHER: ANDREW HARRER / BLOOMBERG
The new status meant the Kushners’ calls were more readily answered—but they came with additional scrutiny, not only of the Kushners but also of the investors. Since January, the company has ceased entering into business relationships with sovereign entities, Morali said. Federal investigators want to know if the Fifth Avenue building’s finances came up in a post-election meeting Kushner had with the head of Russia’s state-controlled development bank.
The Kushners have reason to look far afield. Even after selling big sections of 666 Fifth in 2011, they have increased their own vulnerability by borrowing more money for other deals, people close to the company say. After a refinancing, the deed to 666 Fifth sits in an escrow account, ready to be seized by lenders in a default, an action indicating their trust has grown thin. The mortgage will become even more of a burden after a scheduled jump in interest rates in December. Under some dire circumstances, guarantees in the refinancing agreement could even give lenders the ability to go after the family’s other assets—many of which are also underpinned by debt.
Towering Debt
Debt payments have almost always eclipsed net income at 666 Fifth Avenue. A two-year respite followed a hard-fought loan refinancing deal.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0
20
40
60
$80
M
Debt payments
Net operating income
DATA COMPILED BY BLOOMBERG FROM LENDERS ON 666 FIFTH AVENUE
While 666 Fifth Avenue has been a drain, Kushner Cos. has continued to make big moves across New York City, and company officials say those assets insulate the business. It has expanded its footprint by $1 billion, including the Times building and properties formerly owned by the Jehovah’s Witnesses, according to data firm Real Capital Analytics. Morali, sitting in a conference room below a painting of the company’s founders—Jared Kushner’s grandparents—says even a worst-case scenario at 666 Fifth would do minor damage to the company, because “it’s just one small piece of the portfolio.”
But after selling 18,000 mid-Atlantic apartments in 2007, the Kushners only partially own a substantial number of the company’s assets. In many cases, Kushner Cos. has partnered with well-capitalized firms that want to invest in real estate and seek out experienced locals for deals. These include the Israeli firm Gaia Investment Corp. as well as Oaktree Capital Management, the Los Angeles-based asset manager, and Stonehage Fleming, a London firm that invests money on behalf of 250 wealthy families primarily from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
As a privately held business, Kushners Cos. doesn’t generally have to disclose how ownership breaks down between it and its partners, and Morali declined to provide details. But there are clues. One Brooklyn development site purchased in 2014 for about $75 million and heralded by the real estate press as “Jared Kushner’s big Gowanus project”—so-named for the canal it abuts—is in fact barely owned by the Kushners at all. SL Green Realty Corp., their partner in the endeavor, owns 95 percent of it, according to a regulatory filing. The remaining 5 percent is split between the Kushners, and LIVWRK, another developer. Elsewhere in Brooklyn, where the Kushners partnered with RFR Realty to purchase buildings owned by the Jehovah’s Witnesses, they own about half of the project’s equity.
It’s here where the Kushners have scaled back. Among the six buildings the partnership purchased for $375 million in 2013 is a 30-story hotel at 90 Sands Street scheduled to be turned over to the Kushner group later this year. Kushner Cos. is now exiting the partnership and selling its stake to RFR, Morali said. Leaving the property means narrowing its role in a planned tech-centric Brooklyn office hub—its most ambitious project since purchasing 666 Fifth.
Kushner Cos. New York Area Properties
666 FIFTH AVE.
229 W 43RD ST.
1 JOURNAL SQUARE
TRUMP BAY STREET
55 PROSPECT ST.
117 ADAMS ST.
81 PROSPECT ST.
77 SANDS ST.
90 SANDS ST.
175 PEARL ST.
DATA: REAL CAPITAL ANALYTICS
The Kushners are also extracting cash from properties in which they do own significant stakes. Six floors of the former New York Times building, which they purchased for $295 million in 2015, now have $370 million of debt against them, loan documents show. Of that amount, at least $59 million was used to return cash to the Kushners.
Across the Hudson River at Trump Bay Street, a luxury residential building in Jersey City, the family plans to take out $50 million, Bloomberg previously reported. Efforts over the summer to obtain a $250 million mortgage for the property struggled in the face of controversy around their use of an investment-for-visa program. Now the company has found a lender, Morali says, declining to name the firm.
Central to the fate of 666 Fifth yet noticeably absent from the gyrations around it, is Steve Roth, Vornado’s chairman and chief executive officer, whose firm owns almost half the building’s offices and most of its stores following a 2011 refinancing. When an analyst asked Roth about 666 Fifth in an August earnings call, he demurred, saying the issue was being debated. Two spokesmen for Roth declined to comment for this article.
In 2014, at a meeting in his 57th Street headquarters with Jared Kushner and his father, Charles Kushner, as well as others wrestling with how to save the investment, Roth argued against the Kushners’ extravagant renovation plans, saying, “It would be worth a lot more if it was just dirt,” according to two people who were there.
STEVE ROTH
PHOTOGRAPHER: MISHA FRIEDMAN / BLOOMBERG
Roth is famous for his unsentimental patience. In an April letter to investors concerning a recent dip in demand for retail property, he described an opportunity to “feed on the carnage” for those with ample capital at their disposal—a chance to profit from the overleveraged and underprepared.
That’s what Roth saw when his firm came to Kushner’s rescue in 2011, according to three people familiar with his thinking at the time. For $80 million and the assumption of half the debt, Vornado put itself in the best position to become 666 Fifth’s sole owner in the event of a restructuring or worse.
This may help to explain why Vornado has allowed Kushner Cos. to shoulder the burden of hunting for potential partners and lenders, according to four people. Another reason: Roth’s concern about his own legacy. Now in his mid-70s, having exited retirement only after his handpicked successor left Vornado, he has little desire to gamble his career on a family and a property with uncertain futures, the people said.
Morali said Vornado and Kushner Cos. are equal partners in the tower and will jointly decide its fate.
Gold on Fifth Avenue
Leasing and selling the building’s stores on the world’s most valuable shopping strip helped the Kushners dig themselves out of a deep hole.
① The original tenants ② Kushners partner with Carlyle Group ③ The first buyouts ④ Hollister and Uniqlo move in ⑤ Space sold to Zara ⑥ Kushners sell last stake
DATA: BLOOMBERG REPORTING
The troubles caused by 666 Fifth have their origins in the overheated moment of its purchase. On Thanksgiving of 2006, Charlie Kushner made clear he wanted all employees in the office the next day. Tishman Speyer Properties, a real estate company with a New York pedigree his own company lacked, was looking to sell an office tower in midtown Manhattan, and Kushner wanted it. Tishman was demanding that the deal be done fast. The financing had to be put together by Sunday.
In retrospect, it would be difficult to imagine a worse time for the Kushners to have entered Manhattan real estate. Pension funds, insurers and other blue-chip firms wanted in on a market that many believed would climb forever, and landlords were loath to sell. The combination of new demand and limited supply created frenzy over each transaction, doubling prices.
Buying High
Shortly after Kushner Cos. bought 666 Fifth, rental rates dropped precipitously.
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
%
Year-over-year change
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Kushner agrees to buy 666 Fifth Avenue
DATA: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
The Kushners didn’t have much cash on hand, weren’t in the habit of taking out 10-figure mortgages and weren’t very well known, so they needed an aggressive offer. Charlie Kushner’s dealmakers couldn’t get the numbers to add up, but he didn’t care. “I buy it, you make it work,” he told his accountants, according to a participant in the meeting.
A kingmaker in New Jersey Democratic politics, Kushner had been out of prison just three months for making illegal campaign contributions and, in a bizarre episode that the tabloids couldn’t get enough of, hiring a prostitute to entrap his brother-in-law. He wanted a prestige Manhattan property to mark a fresh start for the family business, which would now be led, if mostly in appearance, by his eldest child, Jared Kushner, who frequently consulted his father. Charlie had recently been turned down for towers including the Seagram Building. He saw securing Tishman’s property as a way to plant his flag.
Over the weekend, the Kushners and their partners worked out a deal in which they would put down $50 million—a pittance. Barclays Bank Plc and UBS Group AG funded $1.75 billion of the purchase, $535 million of it in short-term, high-interest loans. The terms were demanding, bordering on untenable. Nevertheless, after the deal closed in January 2007, the group celebrated with a party at one of the most expensive restaurants in New York, Per Se. Everyone there was given a pair of silver cufflinks fashioned in the embossed look of the building’s exterior.
High-stakes business mixed with politics and unwelcome publicity isn’t new to Jared Kushner. It characterized his initiation into the family firm. He was 23, just out of Harvard, when he was thrust into its leadership after his father went to prison.
CHARLES KUSHNER WITH HIS WIFE SERYL (LEFT) AND ATTORNEY BENJAMIN BRAFMAN (RIGHT)
PHOTOGRAPHER: RICK MAIMAN / BLOOMBERG
Charlie and his three siblings had inherited a small real estate company from their parents, and under Charlie’s leadership, Kushner Cos. flourished. Over two decades, Charlie amassed about 25,000 middle- and working-class apartments, making him one of New Jersey’s largest landlords. Plain but lucrative, these massive suburban complexes threw off enough cash to fuel his political ambitions. As a major donor to the national Democratic Party, Charlie received visits from President Bill Clinton; he was also the single biggest financial backer of former New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey, who appointed him to the board of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
But Charlie used company money for his political donations, and his siblings didn’t care for it, leading to the infamous lawsuit and prosecution. Then-U.S. Attorney Chris Christie began a grand jury investigation.
The arrest and its coverage made Jared’s entry into the company hierarchy a crucible and strengthened his already fierce attachment to his father. During Charlie Kushner’s 14-month incarceration in an Alabama penitentiary, Jared flew down every Sunday. For years, he carried a wallet his dad had made him in the prison workshop. While his father was behind bars, Jared bought the New York Observer newspaper as a platform to reach the Manhattan elite and began pushing for the company to leave New Jersey behind. He ultimately set his sights on 666 Fifth.
At 1.5 million square feet, the 1950s building ranks nowhere near the largest of New York skyscrapers. Its low ceilings and closely built columns give it a dark, closed-off feel—anathema in the era of light-filled open-plan offices.
“If that building was beginning to look obsolete at the time of purchase, it is totally obsolete now,” says Jesse Keenan, a Harvard lecturer on architecture who wrote a 2013 report on the building for Kushner Cos. He notes that Manhattan is in the midst of its largest office-construction boom since the 1980s. The most prestigious occupants—hedge funds, private equity and law firms—are moving west to new buildings, shifting the center of gravity away from the Kushners.
666 FIFTH AVE.
PHOTOGRAPHER: VICTOR J. BLUE / BLOOMBERG
As the building’s fate became increasingly bleak, the family, rather than forfeit, decided to go big. Their plan was to raze the structure and replace it with a glimmering Zaha Hadid-designed tower of massive proportions. The scale of the plan stirred the imagination, but the costs were astronomical because they involved repurchasing the property rights they’d sold to keep the original building afloat. That alone would require more than $1 billion. The elaborate renderings of the reconfigured building promised a kind of Time Warner Center on steroids: more than 80 stories with five levels of retail, a hotel and record-breaking expensive luxury condos on top.
For all its inspiring visuals, investors who reviewed the early version of the Kushners’ pitch book noticed a conspicuous omission: numbers. The company circulated a revised pitch, complete with financials, and the scale of the debt and risk involved were jarring. With a $4 billion construction loan and a business model that assumed the condos would sell at the aggressive price of $9,000 per square foot, it was similar to the leap of faith the Kushners had taken by overpaying for the original building a decade earlier, just before the boom went bust. A simple downturn in high-end New York real estate and the colossal new building would be in a hole of titanic proportions.
One early stop on the Kushners’ tour: Israel. Familiar with the country from their involvement in Jewish business ventures and philanthropy, they were able to partner with companies including Harel Insurance, Bank Leumi and Bank Hapoalim BM on various New York properties. But none invested in 666 Fifth.
Richard Goettlich, whom Charlie Kushner met in prison and hired, used his contacts to find others, former company employees say. In 2012, he approached Gaia, a firm connected to one of Israel’s wealthiest families, the Steinmetzes, whose fortune is derived from African diamonds. Gaia partnered with Kushner on a number of New York City buildings but not 666 Fifth. Goettlich didn’t respond to several requests for comment.
A pitch was made to Bernard Arnault, France’s richest man and the CEO of luxury-goods maker LVMH, to see if he might buy into the project’s multi-floor mall. He passed as well. A spokesman for Arnault declined to comment.
As 2015 drew to a close, there were no serious offers, and many in the company figured the plans were all but dead. Then Donald Trump began his meteoric political rise, and Jared Kushner was right on his coattails. Discussions heated up. Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani, the Qatari businessman who had once run that nation’s sovereign-wealth fund, had earlier declined to even take a meeting with the Kushner Cos. executives, according to people familiar with the talks. In 2016, Al Thani agreed to invest $500 million from the private fund he runs, contingent on investment from others, which failed to materialize.
JARED KUSHNER AND DONALD TRUMP
PHOTOGRAPHER: OLIVIER DOULIERY / BLOOMBERG
Also in 2016, Charlie and Jared met in New York with executives from the government-controlled South Korean sovereign fund asking for an investment in 666 Fifth. The Korea Investment Corporation didn’t invest, people familiar with the talks said.
The Kushners opened discussions with Anbang, the Chinese insurance giant with such close ties to the ruling party that the federal government has forbidden it from buying near a U.S. military base. During months of talks—before and after the election—Jared Kushner negotiated a proposal for Anbang to put billions into the building and allow the family firm to take away $400 million in cash. After details of that plan were made public in March, Anbang walked away amid a crackdown on foreign investments by Chinese regulators.
Representatives of Kushners Cos. also discussed the project with an executive working for Fawaz Alhokair, a Saudi billionaire whose company has vast holdings in shopping malls, hotels and real estate overseas. Alhokair made a splash in the U.S. when he paid $87.7 million for a Park Avenue penthouse. Alhokair’s company considered a possible investment in late 2015, according to Simon Marshall, who was CEO of Alhokair until this year.
Marshall said he analyzed the retail portion of the proposal. The building’s financial viability relied on a plan to construct five levels of luxury shopping at the base of a gleaming new tower. Marshall, who had overseen Alhokair’s retail operations around the world, said he found the projections to be more than the New York luxury-retail market would bear.
“The numbers just didn’t work,” Marshall said in a telephone interview, adding that politics played no role in the decision not to invest. The proposal remained on the table into late 2016, he said, as Trump continued on his path to the White House. Fawaz Alhokair didn’t respond to calls and emails for comment; Kushner Cos. also declined comment.
Staying in the Red
A decade of debts and deals
Equity Loan Short-term, high-interest loan Hope loan
JAN 2007
The Kushners buy 666 Fifth for $1.8B, mostly with debt. Of that, $535M was in short-term, high interest loans.
JULY 2008
Kushner Cos. sells 49 percent of the retail spaces to Carlyle Group LP and Crown Acquisitions for $525M, and refinances the short-term debt.
MARCH 2011
The Kushner group sells one retail unit to Zara-owner Inditex SA for $324M.
2011
Vornado agrees to buy a 49.5 percent stake in the tower’s office spaces and adds $80 million of new equity. Kushner Cos. adds $30M. A portion of the principle loan—$115M—becomes a “hope note,” considered unlikely to be repaid.
JULY 2012
Vornado agrees to buy remaining retail space from Kushner and Carlyle for $707M.
Even after all of these deals, the Kushners still haven’t touched the $1.1B principle.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$1.80B▼TOTAL
$50M▼DOWN PAYMENT
$1.215B▲
PRINCIPLE LOAN
$335M▲
MEZZANINE LOAN BARCLAYS & UBS
$200M▲
MEZZANINE LOAN BARCLAYS & UBS
$50M▼DOWN PAYMENT
$1.215B▲
PRINCIPLE LOAN
$325M▲
LOAN FROM BARCLAYS
$135M▲
LOAN FROM SL GREEN
$50M▼DOWN PAYMENT
$1.215B▲
PRINCIPLE LOAN
$325M▲
LOAN FROM BARCLAYS
$135M▼LOAN FROM SL GREEN
$160M▼EQUITY
$1.1B▲
PRINCIPLE LOAN
$115M▼HOPE LOAN
$160M▼EQUITY
$1.1B▲
PRINCIPLE LOAN
$115M▼HOPE LOAN
$1.1B▲
PRINCIPLE LOAN
Federal investigators know that Kushner met with then-Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak in Trump Tower last December and later met with Sergey Gorkov, head of the Kremlin-controlled VEB bank in two meetings that he didn’t, at first, disclose publicly or on his application for his national-security clearance. After those meetings became public, Kushner and the White House said the contacts were made in his role as a Trump adviser and didn’t involve discussion of his family business. But VEB and a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin described the meetings quite differently, noted Adam Schiff of California, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. They said that Kushner was there in his capacity as head of his family’s real estate business. Investigators say they are studying those accounts with keen interest.
“I think it is part of a pattern of outreach to Russian financial interests, which are essentially Vladimir Putin and his oligarch circle, by Trump family members,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, a Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. “The financial dealings are important because we know that the Russian playbook is to engage and compromise foreign leaders.” He added, “Whether this meeting and contact are significant remains to be understood.” —With assistance from Billy House and Steven T. Dennis.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017 ... -for-cash/
emptywheel
I'm betting Glenn will be proven right on this tweet but I hope he's wrong...Glenn Greenwald
If Mueller's probe now includes how Gulf State money buys influence & policy in DC, it will expose the hidden underbelly of how Washington has worked forever. It will also produce some awkward silence from certain DC think tanks which normally cheer every new Mueller article.
HOW JARED KUSHNER IS DISMANTLING A FAMILY EMPIRE
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/09 ... e-observer
by seemslikeadream » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:57 am
Caroline O.
Mueller's focus on UAE adviser George Nader "could also prompt an examination of how money from multiple countries has flowed through and influenced Washington during the Trump era."
Mueller’s Focus on Adviser to U.A.E. Indicates Broader Inquiry
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/03/us/p ... d=tw-share
George Nader "reinvented himself as an adviser to the de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, and last year was a frequent visitor to President Trump’s White House."
Mueller's team interviewed him in recent weeks re. his potential influence on Trump admin policymaking.
1/
Nader "developed close ties to national security officials" during the Bush admin.
Erik Prince (Betsy DeVos' brother in law) hired Nader to help Blackwater (now called Academi) generate business deals in Iraq.
2/
Hey remember when the United Arab Emirates arranged a secret meeting in January between Erik Prince and a Putin ally as part of an apparent effort to establish a Trump-Putin back channel?
3/
https://www.washingtonpost.com
"[T]he UAE agreed to broker the meeting [w/ Erik Prince] in part to explore whether Russia could be persuaded to curtail its relationship with Iran, including in Syria, a Trump admin objective that would be likely to require major concessions to Moscow on US sanctions."
4/
"The Seychelles meeting came after separate private discussions in New York involving high-ranking representatives of Trump with both Moscow and the United Arab Emirates."
5/
Oh well look who was making "frequent trips to the White House during the early months of the Trump administration, meeting with Stephen K. Bannon and Jared Kushner to discuss American policy towards the Persian Gulf States..."
George Nader.
6/
Hey remember when Kushner, Bannon & Flynn secretly met w/ Jordan's King while Flynn was pushing a for-profit deal to partner w/Russia to put nuclear plants in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and 3 other Gulf countries?
7/
Trump Advisers Secretly Met With Jordan’s King While One Was Pushing A Huge Nuclear Power Deal
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jasonleopold/t ... gp54D6eoKa
As @SpyTalker reported in June, Flynn's plans to build nuclear plants in the Gulf would involve... compensating Russia for curtailing its relationship with Iran.
How convenient.
8/
http://www.newsweek.com/2017/06/23/flyn ... 23396.html …
I wonder if any of this could explain why the crown prince of the United Arab Emirates "forgot" to tell the US government he was coming to meet with Flynn, Kushner, and Bannon during the transition period (late 2016)?
9/
https://www.cnn.com/2017/09/13/politics ... index.html …
Just gonna set this here...
Oh, and there's this: SCL Analytics, the parent company of Cambridge Analytica, was hired to "wage a global social media campaign urging a boycott of Qatar."
The same boycott that Jared Kushner reportedly backed.
10/Caroline O. added,
Oh, and there's this: SCL Analytics, the parent company of Cambridge Analytica, was hired to "wage a global social media campaign urging a boycott of Qatar."
The same boycott that Jared Kushner reportedly backed.
https://www.politico.com/tipsheets/poli ... ion-222775 …
Oct. 2017: "SCL Analytics, the parent company of Cambridge Analytica, registered with the Justice Department as a foreign agent working on behalf of the National Media Council of the United Arab Emirates."
11/
https://www.politico.com/tipsheets/poli ... ion-222775 …
Dec '17: "Trump admin is considering a proposal by Blackwater founder Erik Prince, a retired CIA officer, & Oliver North (Iran-Contra scandal) to provide CIA Dir Pompeo & the WH w/ a global, private spy network that would circumvent US intel agencies"
12/
TRUMP WHITE HOUSE WEIGHING PLANS FOR PRIVATE SPIES TO COUNTER “DEEP STATE” ENEMIES
https://theintercept.com/2017/12/04/tru ... e-enemies/
Oh look who else was interested in private security and intelligence operations: George Nader and his friend/business associate Elliott Broidy.
Imagine that.
13/
https://twitter.com/RVAwonk/status/970129292456755200
by JackRiddler » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:35 am
by JackRiddler » Fri Sep 28, 2018 11:40 pm
by liminalOyster » Sat Sep 29, 2018 2:04 pm
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 41 guests
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Site design by Likely Arts based on "Deluxe" by Artodia.
