Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby stickdog99 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:41 pm

AND THE WORLD MAY NEVER KNOW

California's chief utility regulator said the state may never determine whether PG&E Corp.'s electrical equipment played a role in igniting the deadly blazes earlier this month.

The wildfires, which have killed at least 42 people and destroyed thousands of structures across California's iconic wine country, may have also burned the evidence necessary to find out what caused them, Michael Picker, chairman of the state's Public Utilities Commission, said in an interview Wednesday.

"We still don't know whether the fires caused pole or line damage or the poles caused the fires," Picker said while attending a symposium organized by grid manager California Independent System Operator Corp. in Sacramento. "They may never sort it out."
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby stickdog99 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:48 pm

http://www.marinij.com/article/NO/20171 ... /171029951

For the better part of a decade, California’s utilities have helped to stall the state’s effort to map where their power lines present the highest risk for wildfires, an initiative that critics say could have forced Pacific Gas and Electric Co. to strengthen power poles and bolster maintenance efforts before this month’s deadly North Bay fires.

State officials began working to tighten regulations on utilities and create the detailed maps after wind-toppled electrical lines in 2007 ignited catastrophic fires that killed 17 people in the San Diego area. But nearly 10 years later, the state Public Utilities Commission — which initiated the process — still hasn’t finished the map, let alone adopted strict new regulations.

A review of the mapping project by the Bay Area News Group shows that utilities have repeatedly asked to slow down the effort and argued as recently as July that, as PG&E put it, certain proposed regulations would “add unnecessary costs to construction and maintenance projects in rural areas.”

On Oct. 6, two days before the start of the deadliest outbreak of wildfires in California history, two administrative law judges assigned to oversee the project granted yet another delay at the request of PG&E and other utilities.


The timing of that 74-day deadline extension and the decade of seemingly endless debate about the maps has outraged lawmakers who have been pushing regulators for years to speed up a project designed to prevent catastrophic fires like the ones in Wine Country that killed at least 42 people and destroyed more than 5,000 homes and businesses.

“The sad part is the future didn’t arrive before these fires,” said state Sen. Jerry Hill, D-Redwood City, a longtime critic of PG&E and the PUC. “It’s an outrageous example of negligence by a regulatory agency.”

...

In October 2016, PG&E complained to a judge that the PUC’s plans to complete the map by March of this year was “too aggressive.” And in July, the utility called a proposed regulation to increase the wind speed that power poles must sustain “arbitrary.”

The Bay Area News Group revealed last week that within the first 90 minutes of the fires in Sonoma and Napa counties, firefighters received reports of at least 10 blown transformers or downed power lines at the same time they were called out to battle 19 structure and vegetation fires.

PG&E has acknowledged that some of its lines and poles went down that first night of the fires, citing drought-ravaged trees and what it insisted was a “historic wind event.” But this news organization found that the winds when the fires were first reported were roughly half the speed that power poles and lines are required by law to withstand.

...

Although investigators have not determined yet how the Sonoma and Napa county fires started, the likely ignition points occurred in areas determined to have “elevated” and “extreme” risks of devastating wildfires caused by fallen electrical wires, according to Dave Sapsis, the Cal Fire official who is now leading an independent team of climatology, statistics, fire and engineering experts to create a groundbreaking new methodology for determining fire risks from utilities’ infrastructure. The team is using a supercomputer to crunch weather, topography and engineering data to find the state’s power line wildfire vulnerabilities.

“It looks like our existing map-based methodology was corroborated,” Sapsis said.

Santa Rosa is surrounded by “elevated” and in some pockets “extreme” risk areas for wildfires ignited by utility wires, according to the most recent drafts of the PUC’s fire-risk maps. The Adobe and Nuns fires have burned on top of or directly adjacent to areas of extreme risk.

That means if the maps had been finalized, PG&E may have been required to follow more stringent vegetation clearing requirements, tree trimming and inspection guidelines in Wine Country.

...

This year, after a March 31 deadline came and went, PG&E, Southern California Edison Co. and PacifiCorp complained that the intention to highlight vulnerable power infrastructure on the final map “could present public safety and security issues.”

In July, PG&E also fought a number of regulatory proposals. The company, for example, said it didn’t want to have to comply with any new wildfire regulations within a proposed six-month deadline — and preferred a year to get up to speed.

PG&E also argued that beefing up oversight of overloaded power poles, which often have phone and cable lines weighing them down, was a better proposed regulation than increasing the ability of the poles to sustain greater winds. The utility claimed there was no evidence that wildfires had been caused by poles not being able to withstand high winds.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby stickdog99 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:49 pm

http://www.fresnobee.com/opinion/editor ... 55266.html

There’s the question, for instance, of where the fire hazard zones actually are now. Coffey Park, for example, was supposed to be relatively safe.

Fire hazard maps drawn in the early 2000s by state fire officials placed it outside the “very severe” hazard zone to the east, nearer the rural mountains and wildlands. As a result, the development didn’t have to comply with the stringent regulations that apply to buildings in riskier fire zones.

In theory, any fire would have to jump the 101 Freeway to reach the manicured grid of tidy tract houses. And yet when the wind kicked up and Tubbs Fire blew in, its sheer force was such that the development was deluged with a sideways rain of flaming embers.

“These fires were burning with a ferocity I haven’t seen in 31 years,” CalFire spokeswoman Janet Upton, who grew up in Sonoma County, told an editorial board member. “The flames were sheeting across the ground like floodwater.”

Max Moritz, a fire specialist at the University of California Cooperative Extension, compared the Tubbs Fire to the Santa Ana wind-driven wildfires that regularly rip down the canyons into Southern California suburbs, with the added twist of bigger, denser Northern California vegetation, dried like mega-kindling.

Such fires have not been the norm in cooler, damper NorCal, but the occurrence of such a monster here this year “forces us to consider that this kind of fire could happen in lots of places,” Moritz said. That means not only recalculating risk, but remapping for vulnerabilities such as the age of the housing stock, the types of vegetation, and the state of the roads and communications in case of evacuations.

And it will necessarily mean rethinking building codes and insurance in parts of the state that once seemed safer, an expensive proposition. Great swaths of Northern California might have to learn to live like homeowners in fire-prone Malibu.

Which is another takeaway: preparation. One of the most effective ways to protect a neighborhood from wildfire is brush clearance and landscaping to give firefighters a “defensible space.”

Forcing homeowners to comply with vegetation management regulations isn’t easy, even in high-risk areas, but the state and municipalities may need to tighten such regulations. Last week, the Oakland lethal catastrophe, up to a third of private properties and about half of public properties were out of compliance with clearance regulations, with redwoods dangling over rooftops and shrubbery overgrowing Firesafe Council, a nonprofit working to reduce risk in the Oakland Hills, did an eye-opening compliance spot-check in the area devastated by a deadly fire 26 years ago this weekend. Despite scars from that the grounds of private schools.

Running through these early insights is the question of climate change, and how that should determine development. Almost 40 million people inhabit California, and their presence alone is a fire hazard in a widening share of this state.

Homes with unscreened chimneys and shake shingled roofs and yards shaded with tall juniper trees and fragrant eucalyptus are bombs waiting to go off in the event of a wildfire. Not to mention the 4.2 million or so power poles that bring phone, cable and electricity to Californians.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby PufPuf93 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:02 pm

The recent winds in northern California are rare but not without precedent.

The Columbus Day storm of 1962 is unmatched for coastal northern California. Large tracks of original growth timber blew down, other forests slid down the mountains then or in the Christmas Flood of 1964 that magnified the impact. If one has an eye for that sort of thing (like some sort of professional), one can still see the pattern of the havoc cause by the 1962 Columbus Day storm on the landscape where I live within the National Forest. The havoc from the 1964 Christmas Flood is even more evident.

The Columbus Day storm was different in that it was a wet storm. There were recorded wind speeds of between 70 mph and 170 mph.

>>The Columbus Day Storm of 1962 (also known as the Big Blow,[2] and originally as Typhoon Freda) was a Pacific Northwest windstorm, that struck the West Coast of Canada and the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States on October 12, 1962. It is considered the benchmark of extratropical wind storms. The storm ranks among the most intense to strike the region since at least 1948, likely since the January 9, 1880 "Great Gale" and snowstorm. The storm is a contender for the title of most powerful extratropical cyclone recorded in the U.S. in the 20th century; with respect to wind velocity, it is unmatched by the March 1993 "Storm of the Century" and the "1991 Halloween Nor’easter" ("The Perfect Storm"). The system brought strong winds to the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada, and was linked to 46 fatalities in the northwest and Northern California resulting from heavy rains and mudslides.<<

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_ ... rm_of_1962

>>The Christmas flood of 1964 was a major flood in the Pacific Northwest and some of Northern California between December 18, 1964, and January 7, 1965, spanning the Christmas holiday.[1] Considered a 100-year flood,[2] it was the worst flood in recorded history on nearly every major stream and river in coastal Northern California and one of the worst to affect the Willamette River in Oregon. It also affected parts of southwest Washington, Idaho, and Nevada.[1][3] In Oregon, 17 or 18 people died as a result of the disaster, and it caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.[3] The flooding on the Willamette covered 152,789 acres (61,831.5 ha).[4] The National Weather Service rated the flood as the fifth most destructive weather event in Oregon in the 20th century.[5] California Governor Pat Brown was quoted as saying that a flood of similar proportions could "happen only once in 1,000 years," and it was often referred to later as the Thousand Year Flood.[1] The flood killed 19 people, heavily damaged or completely devastated at least 10 towns, destroyed all or portions of more than 20 major highway and county bridges, carried away millions of board feet of lumber and logs from mill sites, devastated thousands of acres of agricultural land, killed 4,000 head of livestock, and caused $100 million in damage in Humboldt County, California, alone.[6][7]<<

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_flood_of_1964

The coastal mountains of northwest California have near daily strong winds (10 mph to 20 mph or more and gusty) in the River canyons during the hot months, the fire months of the year.
Last edited by PufPuf93 on Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby PufPuf93 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 6:15 pm

The effort to improve the performance of PG&E dates back farther than suggested in the article. PG&E was fined many millions of dollars for the Tehama fire of the early 1990s, which I believe was the first major (and warranted) prosecution of that type.

I think the problems are only going to get worse but maybe future fires can be mitigated in impact. There needs to be a rethinking of power transmission infrastructure. There needs to be a strategic re-set of vegetation to a more fire resistant vegetation structure where fire is more frequent but of less intensity.

One thing that most folks fail to recall is that the National Forests had more than twice as much fire suppression infrastructure and personnel up until the early 1990s when the commercial timber sale program was mostly curtailed on the National Forests. Fire pre-suppression has almost ceased. The other thing that is forgotten that there were controlled burns, shaded fuel breaks, non-commercial thinning of young forests, reforestation of historic burns, and so on that were not part of commercial timber sales but were funded by the commercial timber program. By no means am I saying to go back to the past. But there are items that politically are conveniently forgotten.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby PufPuf93 » Sun Oct 22, 2017 11:53 pm

PufPuf93 » Sat Oct 21, 2017 1:41 pm wrote:Two personal anecdotes about PG&E and right away clearing.

In 2003 I worked for a short time for the Yurok Tribe. One of the projects was to put PG&E lines and Verizon lines from just below Weitchpec and down to Johnsons on the east side of the Klamath and across the Martin's Ferry Bridge and down Tully Creek Road on the west side of the Klamath, this is an area of the Yurok Reservation that until that construction had no power nor phone service. . My 2nd day of work contractors already hired by the Tribe began clearing the ROW for the power and phone lines. Within hours Caltrans threatened an injunction (warranted) and the project stopped temporarily to work out issues. Obviously there were problems with the project. One was that the Tribe had not yet secured contracts with PG&E (and Verizon) to install the poles and build the power and telephone lines but had gone ahead with the clearing because of a budget issue (as in use or lose the Federal grant).

I got to learn about the specifications for PG&E power line ROW clearing (and hope and expect that they have been modified). The PG&E boiler plate contract specifications for width of the ROW clearing was based solely on the height of the poles. Factors such as size and potential size of adjacent trees, slope, and soils were not directly considered. The line was being installed in an area of very large trees, on steep slopes, on soils subject to slides, and an area of very heavy rainfall. Like I say I hope and expect such specs have been revised. Edit to add for correctness: OInly parts of the trunk line are the metal towers, most of the line and the more accessible line is still wood poles.

Where I live farther up the Klamath Canyon the electricity goes out frequently because of weather, slides, trees, and occasional equipment failures. Also this is an area of extremely low population. Going upriver PG&E power goes +/- 13 miles to north of Somes Bar then there is a dead zone of about 30 miles until south of Happy Camp. Pacific Power and Light serve Happy Camp and north, dipping out of OR. I have an integrated propane generator for outages that can last for days and are a fact of life here, Not only is the country rugged but this is the farthermost corner of PG&E service and last to be fixed regards priority.

I have talked to several other old timers here and also a friend from 2 hours away in Trinity county and I broached the idea that we had more outages that lasted longer than in the past. They all agreed. The highway has two lanes and is considered narrow and curvy but nothing like it was until straightened and widened in late 60s and early 70's. The drop off into the River is often 100s of feet. The power poles followed closely along the original highway. There were not telephones until 1973. There is a microwave relay near a mountain top that beams telephone signals to a receiver in the small valley and nearby environs (me) and there are maybe 300 local phones on the system. The telephone are very robust and I have only experienced two outages(granted I have lived here less than 1/2 the time since phones came): (1) Maybe 10 years ago a forest fire burned through the receiver on the mountain top, (2) Back in the 70s someone stole a rubber tired log loader off a logging job in the middle of the night and drove to the village and attacked the cinderblock building with the valley receiver on top. Then they parked the log loader nearby in one of my friend's driveways and left it with the engine running. Jeff was roused out of bed by authorities who initially blamed him after he already was sleep distracted by all the racket.

Back to the topic of PG&E lines; when the highway was widened PG&E installed large metal towers for the trunk line. The spans from tower to tower were much larger than from pole to pole and, while ROW is wider, it also no longer follows the highway and is on some very gnarly terrain that is harder to maintain and less stable than the highway prism. The power goes out more frequently and outages are longer because of more dynamic geology and trees in the newer power line location. Also sometimes a problem is identified and fixed only to find out there were other problems not yet identified. Damage is harder and takes more time to fix and locate because access often requires a helicopter and in all cases is more complicated than parking next to poles on the highway. Probably it would have been cheaper for PG&E to string the line along the new highway location and outages would occur less often and repairs not take as long. Burying service has been considered but is cost prohibited because of the few customers but also because the soils slide as a fact of being. The highway requires near constant repair.


Oops I meant to edit and quoted. There are some minor changes.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby seemslikeadream » Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:51 am

Breitbart Made Up False Story That Immigrant Started Deadly Sonoma Wildfires, Sheriff's Office Says
"This is completely false, bad, wrong information that Breitbart started and is being put out into the public," a Sonoma County sheriff's spokesman said.

Originally posted on October 18, 2017, at 7:50 p.m.
Updated on October 19, 2017, at 6:35 p.m.
Brianna Sacks

BuzzFeed News Reporter
Talal Ansari

Image
Justin Sullivan / Getty Images
In the aftermath of the catastrophic wildfires that killed at least 42 people and left thousands of Northern California homes and businesses in rubble and ruins, right-wing media outlets reported that an undocumented immigrant was arrested in connection to the fires.

Only problem: The reports are false.

“There is a story out there that he’s the arsonist in these fires,” Sonoma County Sheriff Rob Giordano said at a press conference Tuesday. “That’s not the case. There’s no indication he’s related to these fires at all. ... I wanted to kill that speculation right now, so we didn’t have things running too far out of control.”

The rumors flared after officials arrested a 29-year-old man in Maxwell Farms Regional Park last weekend. Jesus Fabian Gonzalez, a homeless man "known to deputies," had started a fire to keep warm, Giordano said Tuesday. Gonzalez, who frequented the park, was seen "walking away from a small fire" on Sunday afternoon carrying a fire extinguisher and lighter, the sheriff said.

Law enforcement "asked him if he started the fire, and he said he started the fire to warm himself up,” Giordano said, noting that the fire was so small that a deputy had extinguished most of it before firefighters arrived.

Gonzalez is currently being held in Sonoma County jail on a $100,000 bond, and there is no evidence linking him to the dozens of wind-fueled fires that erupted last Sunday, torching nearly 200,000 acres across the region.

The cause of the wildfires, which are still burning across multiple counties, is still under investigation.

On Monday, the Santa Rosa Press Democrat published a story about the arrest. Then Breitbart, the right-wing website run by President Trump's former chief strategist Steve Bannon, picked up on the story.

Breitbart then reported that the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency (ICE) had issued a detainer request for Gonzalez and claimed, without any evidence, that he was arrested on suspicion of arson in the massive wildfires.
Image
Breitbart
While many in the region are still clamoring for answers about how the raging wildfires — now the deadliest in California history — were ignited, many people began sharing the story on social media, fueling the false report.

"An illegal alien has been arrested for arson after a fire destroyed much of Santa Rosa..."
Image
Facebook
"The Santa Rosa fire was not started by climate, it was Arson by an illegal alien, in a sanctuary city," one user tweeted to President Trump.
Image
Twitter
The report ricocheted across right-wing media outlets, including InfoWars and the Drudge Report, which shared Breitbart's unsubstantiated claims.

infowars.com

Twitter: @DRUDGE_REPORT
"Jesus Fabian Gonzalez is now sitting in the Sonoma County Jail on suspicion of arson for being at least one of those responsible for the rash of fires that have devastated California this month killing at least 40," wrote American News 24/7.
Image
American News 24/7
Since the fires began, officials have been continuously reassuring the community that ICE agents would not be targeting undocumented immigrants who sought refuge at official shelters. Dozens chose to camp at beaches, sleep in cars, or stay in churches, schools, and other pop-up shelters to avoid encountering any federal agents.

Sgt. Spencer Crum, spokesperson for the Sonoma County Sheriff’s Office, said officials are working to counter the false report that Gonzalez was behind the fires, calling it "the first really crazy" rumor they've had to contend with.

"This is completely false, bad, wrong information that Breitbart started and is being put out into the public in a very strong way," Crum told BuzzFeed News on Thursday. A Breitbart reporter, he said, called the department only to inquire about Gonzalez's race and if ICE had placed a detainer on him.

"After they published that story we started getting a lot of calls," he added. "There is no indication Mr. Gonzalez is connected to the wildfires. None. Breitbart made that up themselves."

A statement released on Wednesday from Thomas Homan, ICE's acting director, accused Sonoma County of being a "non-cooperative jurisdiction" that "has left their community vulnerable to dangerous individuals and preventable crimes."
Image
ICE
Homan's statement goes on to claim that the agency was never notified of Gonzalez' four releases from Sonoma County jail, and that the county's "non-cooperation policies" allow "criminals who would otherwise be deported will be released and left free to reoffend as they please."

"The residents of Sonoma County, and the state of California, deserve better than policies that expose them to avoidable dangers," Homan wrote.

In a scathing rebuttal, the Sonoma County sheriff called ICE's statements "inaccurate," "inflammatory," and "damaging" to the office's relationship with residents.

In addition to recounting and rebutting ICE's narrative regarding Gonzalez, Sheriff Giordano wrote that there is "no indication that Gonzalez had anything to do with these fires and it appears highly unlikely."

"ICE attacked the Sheriff’s Office in the midst of the largest natural disaster this county has ever experienced," Giordano wrote. "I hope to end this senseless public confrontation with these facts so that I may focus on the fire recovery."

Undocumented Immigrants Were Afraid To Use California Wildfire Shelters, So They Slept On Beaches
https://www.buzzfeed.com/briannasacks/u ... .foK8rx9y9
Mazars and Deutsche Bank could have ended this nightmare before it started.
They could still get him out of office.
But instead, they want mass death.
Don’t forget that.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby stickdog99 » Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:19 pm

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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby Sounder » Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:31 am

You know you are doing good stickdog99 when the background noise is reduced to crickets. :yay
All these things will continue as long as coercion remains a central element of our mentality.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby PufPuf93 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:00 pm



This guy is a trip. Good stuff.

Can't agree about DEW though.

I predict there will be parties that make huge amount of money and twist everything they can to that end. Most other folks impacted will have lost their homes and lifestyles.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby Sounder » Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:50 pm

This guy is a trip. Good stuff.


It is always good to see certifiable freaks that do well in normal world.

Can't agree about DEW though.


There is no need at this point for firm conclusions, still the possibility seems prudent to consider.

Anybody care to take a stab at those blue flashes?

Planning people are not always nice people.
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Re: Wild theory about Santa Rosa wildfires

Postby PufPuf93 » Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:58 pm

Sounder » Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:50 am wrote:
This guy is a trip. Good stuff.


It is always good to see certifiable freaks that do well in normal world.

Can't agree about DEW though.


There is no need at this point for firm conclusions, still the possibility seems prudent to consider.

Anybody care to take a stab at those blue flashes?

Planning people are not always nice people.


Agree about the "certifiable freaks", some have called me eccentric. :starz:

I already explained about the trees burning from the inside. Standing trees and even green crowned trees, some that will die and some won't are left after wildfires. A live tree is about 50% water and does not burn as readily or with same heat given off as dry wood. In the forests a fire may burn through on the ground clearing out the understory and deadfall, this happ0ened much more in nature before modern human came to dominate the landscape, plus the fires occurred more often so less intensity. The trees in the urban setting lack the "fuel ladder, and heavy fuel so most of the impact is from heat radiated from burning structures and other improvements and not directly adjacent. Some of the green trees will still die because what kills them is heat cooking the cambium layer between protective bark and the green sapwood.

The structure and car fires and the intensity remind me of war time fore bombing. Fires create their own weather and turbulence. I have seen wild fires create their own thunderheads and rain where there had not been a cloud in sight.

The fellow in the video did not see the blue flashes but heard talk of them and saw pictures on the internet (I liked how he referred to the internet for speculation).

Can someone post blue light pictures or better video? Maybe something that cannot be explain but also could be combustion of pockets of fuel that burns bluish and maybe explodes?

I expect there will be all sorts of efforts by some to profit from other's disaster. It is not necessarily the professional "planners" but pressure on them from their political bosses and business people. Outside vultures are without doubt circling and making plan for the spoils and what needs to be done for access and profit.
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