Closer to Mars

[Belligerent Savant]

.

.
Re: Bitcoin. Don't look now, but it's currently on an upswing, pushing $12k per coin as a hedge against growing volatility and corresponding lack of faith/trust in FIAT currency (see the recent rise in value of precious metals - same sentiment). The last high point of Bitcoin was about $20k back in 2017. Let's see if it touches it again, if at all, before we scoff. Money's being made as we type.

What you or I think of precious metals or Bitcoin as a legit store of value/exchange is irrelevant. It's all about consensus perception and confidence in a given currency.

Yes, and what I've noticed is that these dire predictions of imminent, systemic dollar collapse all come from two libertarian-leaning fraternities: the gold bugs and the Bitcoin nuts. The cherished dream of both groups is that the dollar spectacularly fail and be replaced by—gold!—no, Bitcoin!—no, gold!—no, Bitcoin! You can watch them snipe at each other on Twitter, I find it amusing. I don't see serious economists or policymakers of any stripe predicting such a catastrophic currency failure. (WEF talk of a "reset" is vague and I could find no reference to replacing the USD or really anything to do with currency.)

Also: we shouldn't assume a move to digital currency isn't part of longer-term plans. Far easier to control transactions.

There's a proposed instrument called "Central Bank Digital Currency" (CBDC) that would preserve the anonymity of paper cash along with the ease of electronic payments. Don't ask me how it works but I think it involves something like blockchain, and according to all the researchers, it would work as claimed.

The other day I heard a great simile: a monetary instrument (e.g. the dollar) is like a Mr. Potatohead; you can add features at will, but it's still fundamentally a Mr. Potatohead.

there'll never be money on Mars... because humans will never establish there.

Have you previously talked about the reasons why? You see no colonies, outposts or settlements of any kind?

But back to Mars. I've a suggestion for the face of the Martian $100 bill:

He looks upset!

Indeed, there are certain groups (of a 'libertarian' slant) that push it as an 'imminent' demise, but there are others in the field of finance that simply assess based on investment opportunity, near/long-term.

It may not be 'imminent', but that doesn't mean it won't happen at some point, perhaps in 'phases'.

As you point out, the dollar may turn 'digital' while still being called a 'dollar'; Bitcoin may be more of a 'transition' instrument, a 'beta' test, to help achieve eventual large-scale acceptance of a cashless system.

My reasons for doubting humans on Mars are largely based on observation. When have we last visited the Moon (if at all, at least as depicted to the masses)?
If/when humans step foot on the Moon again in our lifetimes, i'll reconsider the prospect of Mars. It's been over 40yrs and counting.

(If i'm to get a bit fanciful here, i'd say we've succeeded far more as a species in simulating reality since the 70s than in actually traversing humans through space. We may be about 5 yrs away from a time when it'll become exceedingly difficult for the average human to tell the difference between an actual Moon landing vs a simulated one. On the other hand, the ubiquity of the internet -- easier access to information, regardless of signal/noise ratio, and related potential for 'data leakage', limited hangout or not -- may pose more of a challenge to keep such fakery under wraps for too long).

We'll see how the next ~10 yrs transpire on these fronts.
I may well be shown to have foolish thoughts on this, which is fine -- wouldn't be the first time

[DrEvil]

^^For all intents and purposes I already live in a cashless society. I honestly can't remember the last time I used cash for anything, and I think that's true for the majority of people. Even bake sales and things like that are now mostly cashless. People just use their phones. Businesses are still legally obligated to accept cash though, and if we ever go truly cashless there is a strong drive for the availability of anonymous digital cash in the form of cash cards or similar, which would really just be a plastic version of paper money. There would be a log somewhere of you buying a $100 card, same as there being a log of you withdrawing $100 from an ATM. You could still track each individual card, but people will come up with solutions to circumvent that (example: swap bowls. Some location has a bowl full of cash cards, and anyone can just grab one at random and leave one of the same value. Lo-fi version of cryptocurrency tumblers) or just switch to cryptocurrency for the nefarious stuff.

As long as there's room for anonymous transactions I can't say I have much of a problem with it. I haven't paid cash for hashish in twenty years, and I haven't been caught yet.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

Bottom line is that cash allows for the option of not being tracked/readily logged. Yes, of course many no longer use cash day-to-day, but what I'm referring to are the larger implications of a society where cash is NO LONGER AN OPTION, AT ALL. And not so much the implications to someone like you or me, but to commerce, larger transactions, businesses more broadly --- as well as the other end of the spectrum: the struggling classes, the "undocumented" workers, those that rely on CASH and don't have/can't get bank accounts or lines of credit, etc. -- and the more overt control mechanisms that a cashless society would provide to controlling entities.

[We may need to add this sub-topic to another thread... doesn't really apply to Mars, at least not directly]

[lucky]

.....It's not the anonymity of taking away the cash option that worries me as much as, as I said somewhere else, when your 'cash' is just ones and zeros it's not just under your control ; In your pocket it will stay unless you A. decide to spend it or B. It's taken by force. When it's in the ether it could be deleted as easy as a keystroke - real control for tptb or some other agency.

[Belligerent Savant]

^^^^^

That's precisely one of the control mechanisms alluded in my prior response.


Back to the topic of Mars (though I do think the last few posts would be well-placed in one of our 'currency' threads):

Mark your calendars! According to this NASA "chief scientist" (surely an authority on these matters), it's only a matter of time before a human steps foot on Mars.

Humans will "absolutely" be on Mars in the future, NASA chief scientist Jim Green told USA TODAY. And the first person to go is likely living today, he said.

After the "building blocks of life" were discovered on the Red Planet, life on Mars and living on Mars seems to be less like a scene from the movie The Martian and more like a reality.

"Now, we see Mars is an even better location for having past life," Green said. "It’s just getting better and better."

Mars is more Earth-like than any other planet in the solar system, making it an attractive second option for the human race. There's also a natural beauty on the planet: a grand canyon that measures nearly the entire width of the U.S. and a volcano the size of Arizona.

...

The plan is to send someone to the planet by 2040. But that's dependent on quite a few factors.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 690476002/


2040, folks. Don't know about you, but I've other concerns about the state of affairs on Earth in 2040 that have little bearing on whether or not we end up on Mars.

(How about the upsell on Mars' 'natural beauty'? A grand canyon... and a volcano! Start planning your investment in a parcel of Martian land.)

[Iamwhomiam]

When governments dump tons of gold on the market the goldbugs will be in tears watching the value of their $1500 ounces plummet to $35.

If the internet goes down, good luck cashing in on your bitcoin holdings. Same is true regarding plastic should it replace cash.

We should be creating our own local currencies for our local markets, as well as creating an alternate replacement for the post office and mail delivery in our local regions. Mars is a very expensive toy for scientists to play with.

[DrEvil]

^^^^^

That's precisely one of the control mechanisms alluded in my prior response.


Back to the topic of Mars (though I do think the last few posts would be well-placed in one of our 'currency' threads):

Mark your calendars! According to this NASA "chief scientist" (surely an authority on these matters), it's only a matter of time before a human steps foot on Mars.

Humans will "absolutely" be on Mars in the future, NASA chief scientist Jim Green told USA TODAY. And the first person to go is likely living today, he said.

After the "building blocks of life" were discovered on the Red Planet, life on Mars and living on Mars seems to be less like a scene from the movie The Martian and more like a reality.

"Now, we see Mars is an even better location for having past life," Green said. "It’s just getting better and better."

Mars is more Earth-like than any other planet in the solar system, making it an attractive second option for the human race. There's also a natural beauty on the planet: a grand canyon that measures nearly the entire width of the U.S. and a volcano the size of Arizona.

...

The plan is to send someone to the planet by 2040. But that's dependent on quite a few factors.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 690476002/


2040, folks. Don't know about you, but I've other concerns about the state of affairs on Earth in 2040 that have little bearing on whether or not we end up on Mars.

(How about the upsell on Mars' 'natural beauty'? A grand canyon... and a volcano! Start planning your investment in a parcel of Martian land.)

Why not both? Go to Mars and take care of our own planet? Literally the best of both worlds. Fix our own but have a backup for the long term.

Staying put on Earth when there is so much to explore out there just seems so depressing to me. It's like living in a small house surrounded by amazing nature and never going out to explore it.

NASA will never get there first though. It will be either a private entity or China. NASA has their priorities rearranged every four or eight years. God knows what their official goal will be in 2040. Go to the Moon, no wait, Mars, no wait, an asteroid, no wait, the Moon. They way things are going they'll be launching an expedition to the hollow Earth by then, or to conclusively prove that the Earth is flat.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

Ha..

I admire your faith in our space salesmen.
(Musk in particular... i'd be amused if my take on him turns out wrong)

[DrEvil]

I don't really get this skepticism towards Musk's intentions. He's been completely upfront about his goals all along, and everything he does is geared towards going to Mars: rockets, batteries, solar panels, tunnel-boring machines and satellites.

I still haven't seen a good explanation for what he's really up to if it isn't going to Mars.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

Musk, to me, is an actor, a 'front-facing' presentation, operating on behalf of aims shielded from view.

He's not alone in that regard. There are a number of avatars out there, performing.



The below bits of info should be viewed as breadcrumbs; publicly available information.

Lobbying Activity

SpaceX Lobbying

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., more commonly known as SpaceX, is an aerospace manufacturing firm started in 2002 by Musk in Hawthorne, California, and he is the firm’s chief executive officer.

Since 2004, SpaceX has grown in contributions to congressional candidates. In 2004, the firm spent $25,000 in individual donations to Congressional Democrats and Republicans. In 2016, SpaceX spent $372,989 in donations to Congressional Republicans and Democrats (overwhelmingly to incumbents) as well as their respective political action committees. [18]

SpaceX has also lobbied the 114th and 115th Congresses on ten pieces of legislation, mostly related to Department of Defense appropriations bills, Department of Homeland Security funding, and the American Space Commerce Free Enterprise Act of 2017. [19]
Subsidies

Elon Musk’s enterprises have received roughly $5 billion in subsidies from federal, state, and municipal governments since 2015. Tax credits, grants, tax breaks, factory construction, discounted loans, and environmental credits are among the types of incentives Musk’s companies have collected.[20]

Tesla

Under certain subsidies programs, customers were eligible to earn a $7,500 federal income tax credit for purchasing electric car. Customers purchasing electric cars in the state of California could earn an additional $2,500 rebate. [21] By 2015, Tesla buyers claimed an estimated $284 million in these subsidies. After the 2009 financial crisis, Tesla received a tax-payer funded loan of $465 million from the U.S. Department of Energy, which it used to build an electric car factory. [22] The federal government did not acquire stakes in Tesla Motors in exchange for the stimulus package.

Tesla’s $5 billion Nevada-based battery plant was supported by about $1.3 billion in state government subsidies, with sales tax, property tax, and business tax all waived for 10 or 20 years.[23] To afford this budget expenditure, the state of Nevada eliminated a tax break for insurance companies. According to the Zero Emission Vehicle Regulation, auto companies must earn a certain number of credits by manufacturing and selling zero-emission vehicles. California’s cap and tax program allows Tesla to sell their vehicle credits to other auto companies that do not meet their mandated credit quotas. Tesla has earned over $517 million by selling these environmental credits to competitors.[24]

SpaceX

Space X received about $20 million in subsidies from the state of Texas to build a launch facility. The company also signed $5.5 billion worth of government contracts with NASA and the United States Air Force. The State of New York spent $750 million for a Solar City solar panel factory in Buffalo. Solar City claims to have received $497.5 million in direct grants from the U.S. Treasury Department. [25]

https://www.influencewatch.org/person/elon-musk/

[DrEvil]

But who is he fronting and why? Where do the breadcrumbs lead you?

[Belligerent Savant]

.

See the added content above. I wouldn't say it's "who" -- there are numerous entities involved in such ventures -- but there is more to the story of Musk, and the factors involved in his activities, than the front-facing narrative that he's a wealthy man with an interest in Space Travel and Electric Cars.

Not too dissimilar to certain influential/top-level politicians. Are we to believe they're fully autonomous, acting fully on their own agency?

[DrEvil]

No, but do you have any evidence that Musk is being dishonest about his plans, or is it just a gut feeling? Looks to me like he's just grabbing all the cash he can to help fund his plans. Going to Mars isn't cheap.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

Haven't dedicated earnest time into gathering evidence (though I also don't have access to much info beyond whatever's available on the interwebs), but as spare time allows, I may update this space with added context -- others here are welcome to do the same.

It's largely my gut, for now at least. And my gut is prone to eccentric proclamations... right now, in fact, it's clamoring for a peanut-and-apple butter sandwich on toasted multigrain bread. It must be sated.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

When governments dump tons of gold on the market the goldbugs will be in tears watching the value of their $1500 ounces plummet to $35.

If the internet goes down, good luck cashing in on your bitcoin holdings. Same is true regarding plastic should it replace cash.

We should be creating our own local currencies for our local markets, as well as creating an alternate replacement for the post office and mail delivery in our local regions. Mars is a very expensive toy for scientists to play with.

I missed this earlier.

"When governments dump tons of gold on the market" -- when do you anticipate that would happen? Are there any indicators that it will happen anytime soon, if ever? I note there is speculation that govts may sell their Gold stores, particularly given current circumstances, but this remains a speculative take. Anything is possible in these times, however.

"If the internet goes down" -- and would that impact only Bitcoin? Also, for how long? Are you suggesting that the internet would go down 'forever'? Because even if it goes down for an entire week, for example, nothing happens to the Bitcoin. It will remain where it is, to be accessible once the 'internet' is up and running again. The Bitcoin market would drop, surely, but it wouldn't be the first time, and it wouldn't be surprising to see it push back up again in time.

Now, if you're implying the internet would go down FOREVER, such a scenario would impact currencies (and businesses) broadly in our already largely cashless society. Commerce and markets would collapse. Eventually to be built anew, of course, but fortunes and livelihoods would be lost across the board, regardless of Bitcoin ownership.