Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

[Belligerent Savant]

The study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20042291v1

This makes more sense of the pattern in the data that shows the percentage of tests performed that yield a positive result appears fairly static (~15% - certainly true in the US and UK).

UK similar at ~14%, apparently Germany 6 - 7% (machine translation).

Does anyone know the criteria for testing in the US? In the UK, it's 'requiring admission to hospital' plus symptoms (those not deemed in need of hospital treatment are 'not prioritised'). Reports of shortages of testing kits would seem to indicate that only those in the higher priority groups are being tested.

So, does this mean that around 120,766 people have been admitted to hospital displaying ILI symptoms (since we started testing for covid-19) of which 103,687 (~86%) tested 'negative'? Quite how many - or what percentage - of those non-corvid ILI sufferers succumbed to the 'old man's friend' we don't yet know. But previous years offer a clue.

But that number looks outrageously high to me.

Historic figures on the number of people admitted to hospital (inc non-ICU/HDU) for ILIs isn't readily available (as not all data is collected, it would seem), but we can get an idea from the 'Rate of Admissions per 100,000 in the Trust catchment area' - which looks to have peaked at around '10' (0.01%) in early 2018. Crudely extrapolate that out for a population of 66 million and we get 6600 hospital admissions for Influenza per week (this would be the peak of a bad year, 26,400 deaths).

If we take this 'crisis' to have started in the UK on 1st Feb (first case reported on Jan 31st) - a mere 8 weeks ago - and crudely divide that number of non-corvid ILI hospitalised people (103,687) we get a figure just shy of 13,000 per week (every week, for 8 weeks).

Can anyone point out where I've gone wrong, or does it look like there are an insanely high number of non-Covid19 ILI cases occurring?

Good points raised here.

I've read somewhere - and will need to dig further to corroborate - that the testing being performed is not for CoVID-19 specifically, but for any Coronavirus, which would of course cause the 'infected' numbers to balloon considerably relative to CoVID-19 cases specifically.

Re: death counts: has a chart been generated comparing death count totals -- across all causes -- in 2019 for a given city (such as London or NYC) to death count totals in 2020 for the same time period?


To what extent are we dealing with flawed data, or data manipulated to support narratives that may not reflect actual circumstances? (Malleable nature of statistics rearing its ugly head again).

[alloneword]

If the testing being performed is for *any* corona virus (I'm struggling to believe that it is), that would be an extremely interesting thing - I've read various data/studies (mainly Scotland) from previous years that suggested ~15% of all the ILI admissions had *a* corona virus.

Please share the results of your digging...

As for 'all causes' mortality data, I think I have some at 'Country' level, but not 'city' level AFAIAA. Will look later.

[Nordic]

Not sure this will post but I’m trying it.

[alloneword]

^^ That's the most reliable C-19 numbers I've seen yet, Nordic.

~

That Scottish (2005 to 2013) data I referred to above was from this (Dec '19) study: 'Virus–virus interactions impact the population dynamics of influenza and the common cold', specifically table S5 in this. Figures in the 7 - 15% range are also echoed throughout the UK annual reports.

Still not looked at the 'all causes' data, but I did find a table of ILI (Influenza-like illness) mortality for the US as a whole for the end of 2013 up to the latest available, and tacked the available 'Covid-19 attributed' US mortality data onto the end...



I think I calculated it peaking at over 7000 per week for a bit, with the total ILI mortality over a year being (at worst) in the region of 200,000.

The main problem in doing any comparison is that the more recent the data, the less reliable it becomes (see the tail-off above). For all the lurid headlines, I'm struggling to get good recent data on any of this... wanky interactive graphs are one thing, but nice, clean csv tables are not easy to find. Please let me know if you find any.

On the subject of data:

International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents - SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data (19 March 2020).

Highlights

• Comparison of incidence and mortality rates of four common coronaviruses circulating in France with those of SARS-COV-2 in OECD countries.
• As of 2 March 2020, 90 307 patients had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 worldwide, with 3086 deaths (mortality rate 3.4%).
• As of 2 March 2020, among OECD countries, 7476 patients had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with 96 deaths (mortality rate 1.3%)
• As of 2 March 2020, in France, 191 people had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, with three deaths (mortality rate 1.6%).
• In OECD countries. the mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 (1.3%) is not significantly different from that for common coronaviruses identified at the study hospital in France (0.8%; P=0.11).
• The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus from China, is spreading around the world, causing a huge reaction despite its current low incidence outside China and the Far East. Four common coronaviruses are in current circulation and cause millions of cases worldwide. This article compares the incidence and mortality rates of these four common coronaviruses with those of SARS-COV-2 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. It is concluded that the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.

To that I can add my own anecdote:

A family member (in NE France) had 'a bit of a cold' a couple of weeks ago, was tested and found to be 'positive for Covid-19', so admitted to hospital. After 4 days, feeling fine, he checked himself out (against the strong advice of Doctors) and went home. He says that if that had happened this week, he would have had no choice but to remain in hospital for at least 28 days.

So when we hear about 'people hospitalised by Covid-19', we need to be aware that it includes people who have only mild symptoms, or are completely asymptomatic.

[MacCruiskeen]

BelSav and a1w, sorry to interrupt your conversation (the data looks very telling) but I don't know where else to post this news with every other thread under lockdown.

Palermo, Sicily is experiencing its first outbreaks of looting. People are forbidden to work, are running out if money and getting hungry and angry under the ongoing lockdown (Italians know fascism when they see it.)

Greenland has banned the sale of alcohol to prevent domestic violence.

I think (stefano? can you confirm?) South Africa has now banned the sale of both booze & tobacco, which must be great news for all those nicotine- or alcohol-dependent people already suffering severe stress in cramped homes under lockdown.

edit: typos

[identity]

Greenland has banned the sale of alcohol to prevent domestic violence.

I think (norton? can you confirm?) South Africa has now banned the sale if both booze +tobacco, which must be great news for the nicotine or alcohol-addicted already suffering severe stress in cramped homes under lockdown.

Meanwhile, alcohol sales at government liquor stores are up 40% here in the last couple of weeks!

[identity]

reuben-huva.jpg

A 99-year-old West Vancouver man who tested positive for COVID-19 has recovered completely and is back to his "cheerful old self," his daughter says.

Reuben Huva, who lives in Hollyburn House retirement home, started developing minor symptoms earlier this month, Linda Horspool said.
He was tired, not eating well and had a slight cough, so staff initially thought her father had a cold, she said. On March 11, she got a call saying he'd tested positive for COVID-19.

"We were probably seeing what was dad's death sentence," recalled Horspool, a retired doctor. "I didn't really think a 99-year-old in a wheelchair could possibly survive it, to be honest."

Huva has dementia and was not completely aware of what was going on, Horspool said. Confined to his room, he asked what all the fuss was about. Horspool was able to visit him wearing a mask, gloves and gown. She tried to explain to him that he had the flu, but he told her he felt fine. Other family members were able to see him and communicate through his closed window.

After a few days, his symptoms resolved and he was back to being his "cheerful old self," Horspool said. He tested negative for the virus and was declared recovered on March 25, she said

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/99-year-old-man-covid-recovers-1.5513820

[MacCruiskeen]

You know what's really instructive, and actually really terrifying to me right now? The kinds of media-driven figments so many (not all) educated people -- nice people, liberal people, even otherwise good and brave and intelligent people -- are currently choosing to focus on and desperately believe. And then the kinds of real things they are currently so furiously desperate to ignore and bury.

The working class (not all) know better. They know when they are being bullshitted and bamboozled by the media and the smoothtalking experts. They know when they are hungry and angry. They know when they are alive and well.

Talk to the supermarket workers, wherever you are. They live in their bodies and with other bodies. This makes them healthy and sane and unafraid, and so they can teach us something worth learning. Because we are all going to have to learn a lot, at least while we're still permitted to (and especially after that).

Recommended reading in case I actually get suspended or even banned here: Primo Levi and Victor Klemperer on the rise of fascism and the polite and evasive terror they experienced as professional men of the academic/managerial class. Also Klemperer on language.

Goodnight, all.

[Belligerent Savant]

BelSav and a1w, sorry to interrupt your conversation (the data looks very telling) but I don't know where else to post this news with every other thread under lockdown.

No interruption at all - your posting is on-topic to this thread, Mac - thanks for sharing it here.

I have family in both Northern (Milan) and Southern (Naples) Italy, and am also keeping track on activities there, both via direct interaction with local family members and various news outlets.

So far, no one in my extended family has fallen ill, thankfully. They also tend to scrutinize events as they unfold in the media, rightfully so.

[MacCruiskeen]

Good luck to you and your family, BelSav. I also have friends in Naples and have worked and travelled in Italy many times, mainly in the south.

Israeli Forces Demolish Emergency Coronavirus Clinic for Palestinians
March 28, 2020

https://www.palestinechronicle.com/isra ... tinians/it

[MacCruiskeen]

India:

Criticism has mounted over the lack of planning ahead of the coronavirus shutdown, which was introduced with less than four hours' notice.

Many of India's 1.3 billion citizens have been left jobless and hungry.

Tens of thousands of migrant labourers have been forced to walk hundreds of kilometres to their native villages.

In his weekly radio address PM Narendra Modi apologised for the impact of the strict stay-at-home measures.

But he said there was "no other way" to stop the rapid spread of the virus.

[...]

"Possibly many would be angry at me for being locked in their homes.

"I understand your troubles but there was no other way to wage war against coronavirus... It is a battle of life and death and we have to win it."


People are banned from leaving their homes for three weeks under the "total lockdown" measures announced on Tuesday. All non-essential businesses have been closed and almost all public gatherings are banned.

It has sparked an exodus from major cities such as Delhi, where thousands of migrant workers are setting out on long journeys back to their home villages after transport was stopped.

One worker died on Saturday after he attempted to walk a 168 mile (270km) journey back home, a police officials told Reuters news agency.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52081396

[MacCruiskeen]

UK:

It could be six months before life in the UK returns to "normal", England's deputy chief medical officer has said.

Speaking at the government's daily coronavirus briefing, Dr Jenny Harries added: "This is not to say we would be in complete lockdown for six months."

Nor, NB, is it to say we (sic) would not.

But, she continued, the UK had to be "responsible" in its actions and reduce social distancing measures "gradually".

It comes as the number of people in the UK to have died with coronavirus reached 1,228.

Among those to have died with the virus is Amged El-Hawrani, a 55-year-old doctor and ear, nose and throat trainer at Queen's Hospital Burton.

[...]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52084517

"with"

[alloneword]

Re: death counts: has a chart been generated comparing death count totals -- across all causes -- in 2019 for a given city (such as London or NYC) to death count totals in 2020 for the same time period?

For England and Wales, we do have weekly figures for 'all cause' deaths on a national and 'region of usual residence' level, broken down by age, gender and - interestingly - if the 'underlying cause' was 'respiratory disease'.

The datasets are published (in .xls format) here.

The data tends to lag by a couple of weeks, which presents a difficulty when it comes to using it to counter lurid fear-porn in the media.

There are also weekly 'All-Cause Mortality Surveillance' reports published here, which (unsurprisingly) currently state that 'no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death was observed overall' for week 12, 2020.

I'll do a plot tomorrow of all cause / respiratory / covid-19 from week 1 - hopefully, with clean data and good sources, I can keep it updated as things develop.

To get the UK figures, I've resorted to taking snapshots of the cumulative figures on the .gov site - but this is clunky, so if anyone comes across a decent table or csv, please share it.

~

@Mac - You're not interrupting anything.

I'm well aware that playing numberwang with death statistics isn't everyone's cup of tea, so would be more than happy to take this strand of discussion into 'data and research' if others felt it appropriate?

I do think a separate thread solely for the discussion/dissection of the fear-porn propaganda might be useful, though.

[JackRiddler]

This is the right place for it, and for discussing/contesting/debating/revising.

[Belligerent Savant]

.

With respect to death tallies compared to prior years: aggressive self/imposed-quarantine measures in 2020 will likely cause overall deaths to decrease markedly compared to prior years (less people driving, less accidents, etc.), somewhat ironically.

Tough to find a useful baseline given the (thus far) anomalous circumstances relative to other periods in the modern (last ~30yrs) era.

I remain curious as to what these CoV tests are actually identifying (coronvirus vs. Covid-19 specifically). The only reference i found so far is unreliable as it cites an 'anonymous' healthcare practitioner.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/manufactu ... 19/5707781

The following is from a medical forum. The writer, who is a widely respected professional scientist in the US, prefers to stay anonymous, because presenting any narrative different than the official one can cause you a lot of stress in the toxic environment caused by the scam which surrounds COVID-19 these days. – Julian Rose

***

I work in the healthcare field. Here’s the problem, we are testing people for any strain of a Coronavirus. Not specifically for COVID-19. There are no reliable tests for a specific COVID-19 virus. There are no reliable agencies or media outlets for reporting numbers of actual COVID-19 virus cases. This needs to be addressed first and foremost. Every action and reaction to COVID-19 is based on totally flawed data and we simply can not make accurate assessments.

This is why you’re hearing that most people with COVID-19 are showing nothing more than cold/flu like symptoms. That’s because most Coronavirus strains are nothing more than cold/flu like symptoms. The few actual novel Coronavirus cases do have some worse respiratory responses, but still have a very promising recovery rate, especially for those without prior issues.

The ‘gold standard’ in testing for COVID-19 is laboratory isolated/purified coronavirus particles free from any contaminants and particles that look like viruses but are not, that have been proven to be the cause of the syndrome known as COVID-19 and obtained by using proper viral isolation methods and controls (not the PCR that is currently being used or Serology /antibody tests which do not detect virus as such). PCR basically takes a sample of your cells and amplifies any DNA to look for ‘viral sequences’, i.e. bits of non-human DNA that seem to match parts of a known viral genome.

The problem is the test is known not to work.

It uses ‘amplification’ which means taking a very very tiny amount of DNA and growing it exponentially until it can be analyzed. Obviously any minute contaminations in the sample will also be amplified leading to potentially gross errors of discovery.

Additionally, it’s only looking for partial viral sequences, not whole genomes, so identifying a single pathogen is next to impossible even if you ignore the other issues.

...

...coronavirus are incredibly common. A large percentage of the world human population will have covi DNA in them in small quantities even if they are perfectly well or sick with some other pathogen.

Do you see where this is going yet? If you want to create a totally false panic about a totally false pandemic – pick a coronavirus.

They are incredibly common and there’s tons of them. A very high percentage of people who have become sick by other means (flu, bacterial pneumonia, anything) will have a positive PCR test for covi even if you’re doing them properly and ruling out contamination, simply because covis are so common.

There are hundreds of thousands of flu and pneumonia victims in hospitals throughout the world at any one time.

(/Excerpts)