Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Belligerent Savant » Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:17 am

.

This has all the makings of the Black Swan event some have been waiting for and/or hoping to stave off*.

(*at least as long as contagion/spread expands. Once it stabilizes -- the apex is passed -- supply chains, or at least the more critical ones, will return to some sense of normalcy. But that may not happen for another ~month or two, and until then, it'll be sheer Panic At The Disco mode.)


https://visalist.io/emergency/coronavir ... VS9zuPo4n8


And this:

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/t ... rus-cases/
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:35 pm

A lot to go through but I'm working, so briefly -

BNO does great work, in a Zero Hedge way, but note that their "dashboard" is downstream from the Johns Hopkins dashboard. Either way, just a matter of which interface you prefer.

If you want to get a sense of what's coming, everywhere, check out the curve on the South Korea reports. Once governments start testing in earnest, they start getting "hockey stick" charts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro ... 8_February

Also recommend this Lancet piece that dropped at the end of January and has aged well:
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

Napkin notes from a long discussion last night:
California is monitoring 8400 people, 33 positive, 800+ repatriated to Travis AFB, 12 confirmed cases there
Chicago is monitoring "hundreds," no reliable statements, 70 tested to date, only 2 positive, both Chinas
Missouri is monitoring 20 people
Indiana is monitoring 26
Texas has zero confirmed cases in the gen pop but there is a quarantine at Lackland AFB, at least 8 confirmed cases there
Pennsylvania is mum on monitoring and reports no cases, not believable
Washington (state) was home to the first case in the US and is monitoring 355
Arizona has one case (Jan. 26th) and no statements on surveillance
Virginia is monitoring 8 cases
Wisconsin is monitoring 14 cases, one confirmed as of Feb. 6th
Mass has just one confirmed case since Feb. 1st, monitoring 231 cases, 34 in Boston
Georgia is monitoring "over 200" - note that ATL has the world's single largest international airport by volume

CDC claims 3600 tests have been run, total, as of yesterday
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Belligerent Savant » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:44 pm

.

In my corporate inbox today.


To: All US-based Employees
Please note: employee updates have been issued to countries in EMEA and APAC based on local conditions

The health and safety of all our employees continues to be our top priority. Since Coronavirus is continually dominating news cycles and has been spreading rapidly throughout Europe and the Middle East, we are providing further guidance and information.

Since January 30, 2020, the total number of cases globally has now reached more than 80,000. While the majority of cases are in China, more new cases continue to be reported globally. There are a number of confirmed cases in the United States, with statistics adjusted daily.

We encourage everyone to familiarise yourself with and take preventive actions that have been suggested to help prevent the spread of the virus, including:
o Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.
o Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
o Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
o Stay home when you are sick. Please utilize your sick leave if needed – we want you to take care of yourself and your family.
o Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
o Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
o If you travelled on a business or personal trip to China, please alert your manager and determine a go forward plan that may include staying home or working from home for at least 14 days upon your return.

Up to date information and resources regarding the Coronavirus can be found at:
o https://www.cdc.gov/Coronavirus
o https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
o https://www.who.int/
o Government Measures Relating to Coronavirus

This is a rapidly evolving situation and guidance on travel and self-quarantine is subject to change at short notice. If you plan to travel for business in the near future, please inform the Global Mobility team by emailing [X]. [X] will refer you to the relevant travel advice, albeit it is your responsibility to check this. If you have any personal travel plans in the near future, we strongly suggest you check for the latest travel information. It is also recommended that employees check their IT equipment is correctly configured to allow for remote working, should that be deemed necessary on short notice.

There are a myriad of travel restrictions stemming from host governments as multiple countries and localities seek to prevent further spread of the virus, Mayer Brown's COVID-19 Global Travel Restrictions by Country, provides a summary of the latest travel restrictions. In addition, we have created a travel information and advisory site on our [X] intranet at: [intranet site].

We will continue to provide updates periodically. Thank you for all you do every day.

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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Elvis » Fri Feb 28, 2020 5:49 pm

I'm supposed to schedule a followup visit to a lung doctor, but a pulmonary clinic seems like the most likely place to catch the damn virus. It's only for a checkup, I think I'll wait. Am I being a nervous nellie?
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:53 pm

Elvis » Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:49 pm wrote:I'm supposed to schedule a followup visit to a lung doctor, but a pulmonary clinic seems like the most likely place to catch the damn virus. It's only for a checkup, I think I'll wait. Am I being a nervous nellie?


As both a doctor and an attorney -- absolutely fucking not. Hospitals are not the place to be right now.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby DrEvil » Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:27 pm

^^Yup. An eye specialist at Norway's largest hospital just tested positive, and he's had contact with over a hundred patients the last week. Didn't help that he got the first symptoms on Tuesday after returning from northern Italy, and still went to work. Probably the same mindset that made the woman who infected half her congregation in South Korea refuse the test twice. It was just a cold, until it wasn't.

And of course the charlatans and grifters are starting to come out of the woodwork. If you donate 2020 kroner to a popular (popular as in it's the only one in the country, thank God) christian TV channel then God will protect your children from the virus. I'm expecting to see an influx of natural and/or homeopathic remedies start flooding the market too, along with the usual anti-vaxxer bullshit when a vaccine is ready.

Things will get a lot worse before they get better. Our amazing capacity for greed, denial and delusional thinking will ensure that.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby identity » Sat Feb 29, 2020 4:08 am

Authoritarian Vaxxer or Pro-Choice?

(Coronavirus-related) CDC Fear-based Talking Points


youtube.com/watch?v=mclJppuskQ
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby identity » Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:31 am

Ice Age Farmer's latest video (his earlier videos on CV, food shortages, etc. are also worth watching):

COVID-19: How Far Will It Go?


youtube.com/watch?v=qPGvWHf6iW4
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby DrEvil » Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:20 pm

identity » Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:31 pm wrote:Ice Age Farmer's latest video (his earlier videos on CV, food shortages, etc. are also worth watching):

COVID-19: How Far Will It Go?


youtube.com/watch?v=qPGvWHf6iW4


Well, that was one of the dumbest things I've seen in a while. Everything he looks at he looks at in the most paranoid way possible, and for good measure he tacks on a couple of points on the Event 201 recommendations that aren't actually in the recommendations. Not surprising, coming from an idiot who thinks we're heading into an ice age. And of course Trump is a good guy, defending America from the evil globalists who will punish America because he says the virus isn't a problem there.

And wtf was up with the Star of David-ish thing appearing at random in the middle of the video? Was that just a symbol I'm not familiar with or a thinly disguised "It's the Jews!" message?

Btw: the other video isn't playing for me.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:09 pm

This is an excellent roundup of vetted resources (collated by an evo-bio nerd from Michigan State):
https://telliamedrevisited.wordpress.co ... -outbreak/

It also includes a rundown summarizing Neil Ferguson's briefing (Imperial College London). To wit:

The large number of cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship shows how easily the virus spreads.

The number of cases in Wuhan (city) and Hubei (province) appears to be plateauing, as predicted given the stringent quarantine imposed weeks ago.

It’s hard to know what’s happening elsewhere in China because they only test people with travel history to Wuhan and Hubei, which would miss community transmissions and thus under-estimate the extent of the outbreak elsewhere.

There are anecdotal reports of surges in pneumonia cases in other cities in China, consistent with under-testing and under-reporting of the new coronavirus.

Regarding the severity of this disease, it’s difficult to say in part because different surveillance methods pick up different categories of severity.

In China, only the most severe cases are routinely tested for the virus. Ferguson’s team estimates that about 18% of the severe cases in the Wuhan epicenter may die.

That does not mean, however, that 18% of the people infected die because many have mild or even no symptoms, and they are not tested. Ferguson’s team estimates that only about 5% of infected people are actually tested in Wuhan. So combining this fraction with the severe cases, one would estimate an overall mortality rate across all infections (mild and severe) of roughly 1%.

Another comparison group includes the ~300 cases of international travelers, where there have been 2 deaths (as of the time of this interview). However, there is a delay of ~3 weeks between diagnosis and death in the severe cases, and so that fraction needs to be adjusted to account for this delay. When accounting for this delay, Ferguson estimates that the mortality rate will eventually prove to be between 2% and 5% in this group. Once again, however, these cases are focused on travelers who already showed observable signs of illness when they entered a country, so this rate will also be higher than for other infections.

To adjust for this bias in detection as a function of severity, one needs to estimate the fraction of all travelers from the affected areas who are infected. To estimate this infection prevalence, Ferguson uses data obtained from the evacuation flights, where travelers who returned to their home countries were systematically quarantined and tested for the coronavirus, whether or not they showed symptoms. From these data, Ferguson estimates there were 3 to 4 times more infections than discovered when screening travelers. This means two things. First, the mortality rate estimated from travelers who show symptoms is once again too high by several fold, If all infections were taken into account, the overall death rate is something on the order of 1%. Second, it means that many countries probably have SARS-Cov-2 transmissions occurring undetected in some communities.

Given all of the statistical noise in the data, Ferguson says that the uncertainty around these estimates of 1% mortality is about 4-fold in each direction. So bottom line, he thinks the true mortality rate lies between about 0.25% (1 in 400) and 4% (1 in 25).

The lower value would be similar to the pandemic influenza years of 1957 and 1968, while the high end would be more comparable to the 1918 pandemic.


The potential scope of the pandemic in terms of how many people will be infected is also difficult to predict. Going from past experience with influenza pandemics, Ferguson suggests that roughly half of the population might be infected in the first year, when one includes both those people who become ill and those with mild or no symptoms.

Despite these uncertainties, Ferguson explains that such numbers are valuable for countries and their health-care systems to formulate appropriate plans to deal with this “serious threat.”


If you're into videos, here's a good talk with him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g7Qpvhh5m4

He makes the disturbing point that his lab currently assumes "every time we detect a death, there's probably a thousand undetected cases behind that death."

Finally, while I am a venomous critic of the Jimmy Wales Project and the UK intelligence controllers, Wiki remains an excellent resource on many fronts, especially when you're not dealing with subjects the NWO has a vested interest in obfuscating. Their main page about the 2019-20 Coronavirus Outbreak has been an excellent resource, and far more accurate than any of the .gov resources currently available, too.

Their rundown of the 1918 Outbreak was also superb. You need to have a solid grasp of the basics in order to parse the tsunami of bullshit and sensationalism that's incoming. Take the time to learn the boring stuff.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Sat Feb 29, 2020 7:48 pm

This is a couple days old, but I believe it belongs on this thread:

U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says

By
Lena H. Sun and
Yasmeen Abutaleb
Feb. 27, 2020 at 1:18 p.m. PST

Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen workers to receive the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, without proper training for infection control or appropriate protective gear, according to a whistleblower complaint.

The workers did not show symptoms of infection and were not tested for the virus, according to lawyers for the whistleblower, a senior HHS official based in Washington who oversees workers at the Administration for Children and Families, a unit within HHS.

The whistleblower is seeking federal protection, alleging she was unfairly and improperly reassigned after raising concerns about the safety of these workers to HHS officials, including those within the office of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. She was told Feb. 19 that if she does not accept the new position in 15 days, which is March 5, she would be terminated.


The whistleblower has decades of experience in the field, received two HHS department awards from Azar last year and has received the highest performance evaluations, her lawyers said.

The complaint was filed Wednesday with the Office of the Special Counsel, an independent federal watchdog agency. The whistleblower’s lawyers provided a copy of a redacted 24-page complaint to The Washington Post. A spokesman for the Office of the Special Counsel confirmed that it has received the complaint and assigned the case.

The complaint alleges HHS staffers were “improperly deployed” and were “not properly trained or equipped to operate in a public health emergency situation.” The complaint also alleges the workers were potentially exposed to coronavirus because appropriate steps were not taken to protect them and staffers were not trained in wearing personal protective equipment, even though they had face-to-face contact with returning passengers. The workers were in contact with passengers in an airplane hangar where evacuees were received and on two other occasions: when they helped distribute keys for room assignments and hand out colored ribbons for identification purposes.

In some instances, the teams were working alongside personnel from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in “full gown, gloves and hazmat attire,” the complaint said.
“We take all whistleblower complaints very seriously and are providing the complainant all appropriate protections under the Whistleblower Protection Act. We are evaluating the complaint and have nothing further to add at this time,” HHS spokeswoman Caitlin Oakley said.

The whistleblower, in her complaint, states that “appropriate steps were not taken to quarantine, monitor, or test [the workers] during their deployment and upon their return home.” The repatriated Americans were among those evacuated from Wuhan and quarantined on military bases in California and Texas because they were considered at high risk for contracting the flu-like illness.

About 14 personnel from the Administration for Children and Families, or ACF, were sent to March Air Force base in Riverside County, Calif., and another team of about 13 ACF personnel were sent to Travis Air Force in Solano County, Calif., according to the complaint and the whistleblower’s lawyer, Ari Wilkenfeld. In Solano County this week, the first U.S. patient was confirmed to be infected with coronavirus who did not travel to a region where it is spreading or have known contact with someone diagnosed with the disease.

Several people within HHS voiced objections to sending the ACF personnel to receive passengers, according to a person familiar with the conversations, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

A second person familiar with the situation said the workers were not tested for coronavirus because none of them met the criteria, which was restricted at that time to people with symptoms and either a recent trip to China or close contact with a person confirmed to be infected with covid19. If the workers had exhibited symptoms, appropriate protocol would have been followed.

The deployments took place Jan. 28 to 31, around the time when the first planeload of evacuees arrived at March, and Feb. 2 to Feb. 7, during the time when additional flights were arriving at Travis. The planes each carried about 200 Americans who were repatriated from Wuhan.

After their deployments, the workers returned to their normal duties, some taking commercial airline flights to return to their offices around the country, the lawyers said.

“Our client was concerned that ACF staff — who were potentially exposed to the coronavirus — were allowed to leave quarantined areas and return to their communities, where they may have spread the coronavirus to others,” said Lauren Naylor, one of the whistleblower’s lawyers.

The whistleblower is also seeking assistance from the office of Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), a member of the House Ways and Means committee and vice chair of the House Oversight Committee, according to a Gomez spokesman.

During a hearing Thursday, Gomez asked Azar whether any employees from ACF could have been sent to help with the repatriation of Americans from Wuhan without any training in emergency response. Azar replied that some ACF employees were involved.

Asked what sort of health and safety training the personnel received and whether any of them were exposed to high-risk evacuees from China, Azar said: “They never should have been without P.P.E,” referring to personal protective equipment.

Asked whether any protocols may have been broken, given the urgency on the ground, Azar replied urgency was never a reason for breaking safety protocols.
“I don’t believe that has taken place,” Azar said said, adding that health and safety protocols “should always be followed.” He said he did not personally know the names of the team, but other department officials did. Pressed by Gomez what the department would do if untrained employees were exposed to the virus, Azar said: “I’d want to know the full facts, and we’d take appropriate remedial efforts.”

The whistleblower said she received an email Jan. 25 about a potential deployment within ACF to support repatriation of the evacuated Americans, according to her lawyer. She initially supported the efforts because they had the “appearance that this was within ACF’s scope,” Naylor said. But later, she discovered the teams were dispatched without her knowledge by other senior officials at HHS. It was part of the agency’s “all-hands-on-deck” mission, Naylor said, but it broke agency protocol about what kinds of employees should respond to health emergencies. The whistleblower said she later found out about the deployment when she heard directly from some employees and other senior officials at HHS.

Some workers expressed concern about the lack of protective gear to the ACF team leader on the ground. That person joined ACF in September and had “no training or experience in any federal emergency management, public health emergency response, or safety or operational protocols to run the mission,” the complaint states.

ACF personnel typically deal with supporting people recovering from natural disasters, such as floods and fires, and helping victims apply for temporary assistance, all of which are under the category of human services, the whistleblower’s lawyers said. HHS officials broke established protocols for emergency support by sending ACF workers to a health emergency for which they have no training, Naylor said. ACF, which has about 1,300 employees, has been criticized in recent years because of its role in sheltering and taking custody of migrant children who crossed the U.S.-Mexico border and were separated from family members by the Department of Homeland Security.

The workers’ concerns about potential exposure to coronavirus were not addressed, the whistleblower’s lawyers said.

“She was involuntarily assigned to a position in a subject matter where she has no expertise,” Wilkenfeld, her lawyer, said in an interview Thursday. The agency said the reason for the reassignment was “necessary to meet the needs of the department,” according to a memo she received. “If I did not accept involuntary reassignment, I would be terminated from federal service through adverse personnel action,” according to her complaint.

Amy Goldstein contributed to this report


A few paragraphs stood out to me. Bolding added:

The complaint alleges HHS staffers were “improperly deployed” and were “not properly trained or equipped to operate in a public health emergency situation.” The complaint also alleges the workers were potentially exposed to coronavirus because appropriate steps were not taken to protect them and staffers were not trained in wearing personal protective equipment, even though they had face-to-face contact with returning passengers. The workers were in contact with passengers in an airplane hangar where evacuees were received and on two other occasions: when they helped distribute keys for room assignments and hand out colored ribbons for identification purposes.


I believe this is the epicenter of the "community-spread transmissions" going on in California, corroborated by this paragraph:

About 14 personnel from the Administration for Children and Families, or ACF, were sent to March Air Force base in Riverside County, Calif., and another team of about 13 ACF personnel were sent to Travis Air Force in Solano County, Calif., according to the complaint and the whistleblower’s lawyer, Ari Wilkenfeld. In Solano County this week, the first U.S. patient was confirmed to be infected with coronavirus who did not travel to a region where it is spreading or have known contact with someone diagnosed with the disease.


Sooo…lethal incompetence? Or a sinister plot to sicken the Left Coast? I'm leaning toward the former with this paragraph:

The whistleblower, in her complaint, states that “appropriate steps were not taken to quarantine, monitor, or test [the workers] during their deployment and upon their return home.” The repatriated Americans were among those evacuated from Wuhan and quarantined on military bases in California and Texas because they were considered at high risk for contracting the flu-like illness.


Poisoning Bush Country couldn't possibly be part of a sinister plot. Then again:

The whistleblower said she received an email Jan. 25 about a potential deployment within ACF to support repatriation of the evacuated Americans, according to her lawyer. She initially supported the efforts because they had the “appearance that this was within ACF’s scope,” Naylor said. But later, she discovered the teams were dispatched without her knowledge by other senior officials at HHS. It was part of the agency’s “all-hands-on-deck” mission, Naylor said, but it broke agency protocol about what kinds of employees should respond to health emergencies. The whistleblower said she later found out about the deployment when she heard directly from some employees and other senior officials at HHS.

Some workers expressed concern about the lack of protective gear to the ACF team leader on the ground. That person joined ACF in September and had “no training or experience in any federal emergency management, public health emergency response, or safety or operational protocols to run the mission,” the complaint states.


Whatever happened to those lethally incompetent bureaucrats Spike Bowman and Mike Feghali? :shrug:

All snarkiness aside, this was the scariest sentence in the article to me:

After their deployments, the workers returned to their normal duties, some taking commercial airline flights to return to their offices around the country, the lawyers said.


I wonder if one of those workers was from Oregon?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8B5rH6YCVI

Here's what I don't understand: why are privacy concerns outweighing the public need to know every single damn place an infected person visited during the incubation period the way they did last year whenever someone was infected with the fucking measles?! Isn't COVID-19 transmissible during the incubation period when symptoms aren't visible?
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby stillrobertpaulsen » Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:00 pm

Wombaticus Rex » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:12 am wrote:
Wombaticus Rex » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:09 pm wrote:Interestingly, it's looking like one of the major vectors for a lot of international seeding isn't Wuhan in the Hubei province, but Wenzhou, over in the Zhejiang province. Why is Italy having an outbreak? 90% of their Chinese population are textile workers from Wenzou. (Really.) Why is Iran having an outbreak? There's actually a high speed freight rail line running from nearby Wiwu to Tehran. (Really.) Nothing conclusive, but interesting.


Based on the diaspora distribution from Wenzhou: expect cases in Spain, France, and the Netherlands Industrial Complex. They're already there.


I'd like to join the other posters on this thread in praising your phenomenal contributions, Wombaticus Rex, but with a caveat: your prescience is terrifying:

6:24 AM: France confirms 19 new cases as officials declare epidemic inevitable

PARIS — France confirmed 19 additional cases of coronavirus late Friday, bringing the national total to 57. Health officials warned that an epidemic was now imminent.

“We are preparing for an epidemic,” French Health Minister Olivier Véran said. He added that “we are now moving to stage two. The virus is circulating in our country and we must stop its spread.”

Twenty additional cases had been confirmed in France late Thursday; the new 19 cases were diagnosed in the 24 hours since then.

Authorities on Saturday were still struggling to identify the initial source of an outbreak in the Oise region north of Paris, with particular attention being paid to links between the Creil military base in that region and the nearby Charles de Gaulle international airport, one of the busiest passenger airports in Europe.

On Friday, France’s Le Monde newspaper, citing airport security officials, reported that one airport worker who lives in the Val d’Oise region had tested positive for the virus.
The rapidly growing numbers of coronavirus cases come at a time of general malaise among public health workers in France. Earlier this year, hundreds of hospital department heads resigned over complaints about insufficient resources and staffing.

“We are facing an epidemic that will affect the whole system and will very quickly impose a reorganization of care,” Xavier Lescure, an infectious disease specialist at Bichat hospital, one of the three designated coronavirus treatment hospitals in the Paris region, told Le Monde.

By: James McAuley
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Sat Feb 29, 2020 8:43 pm

stillrobertpaulsen » Sat Feb 29, 2020 6:48 pm wrote:Here's what I don't understand: why are privacy concerns outweighing the public need to know every single damn place an infected person visited during the incubation period the way they did last year whenever someone was infected with the fucking measles?! Isn't COVID-19 transmissible during the incubation period when symptoms aren't visible?


Part of the problem is simply that we're not Singapore, you know? The United States of America is not a serious country anymore. Even on the CDC level, influenza surveillance is a matter of limited sampling being plugged into models to extrapolate a bounded estimate.

CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.


So now that it's time for not just more granular surveillance, but 1:1 tracking, well, nobody has a system for that in place. (Much like how nobody had a system in place to train, brief and protect those HHS employees.)

I'm equally frustrated by the US response: every concert, campaign rally and sporting event from here to June needs to be fucking cancelled, because we have community transmission now. We have seeded cases now. We low-symptom and asymptomatic carriers walking around now. Pence's Task Force clown show is in a tough spot -- they don't want to cause panic, but they also don't believe that containment is possible. Between the two, this is why I've suspected since January that they're just going to let this fire burn.

That's why we saw the public messaging shift from talking up containment and talking down the threat, to simply discussing mitigation and spit-balling reassuring soundbites about nCoV infecting half the adults currently alive on planet Earth.

People are taking far more solace than they should from the fact that China's infection curve is slowing down. Even considering that China lies about everything and they're catering to the irrational (but inevitable!) demands of Xi, I do believe them on that front. They're not making up the fact that it's levelling off, because after all, they put hundreds of millions of human beings under martial law for weeks. This is the point I feel a lot of people are missing, because very few other countries are going to take that step until it's far too late to make much difference. There are too many political and economic concessions, and not enough sovereign control.

Decades after Samuel Huntington's infamous essay, we've finally come to a true "Crisis of Democracy." Democracy can't adapt to problems like this because there is simply no room to negotiate consensus on this. You need to take immediate, shitty, painful steps, or just admit that you're not going to seriously deal with the problem and start looking for exit plans.

I suspect that's very much where US govt is at. (I don't think it would have been any different under Hillary, either, there just would have been more diversity on the task force and the press conferences.)

Anyways, my cynicism aside, the numbers out of Wuhan are shockingly bad, considering they are heavily supressed and under-reported, and especially in light of the fact that we can expect them to be even worse in future hot zones. And there are hundreds if not thousands of those -- the Wuhan outbreak seeded the world, something the Lancet team identified early. (Link is here.) Completely sober, informed professionals were estimating 100k cases in the Hubei province at the end of January.

And that tracks with what we're seeing, now, in Iran, Italy, Japan and most especially those beautiful lunatics in the Republic of Korea, who are doing the world a tremendous favor by reporting on their problems honestly. And their numbers are scary as all hell.

I believe that the United States has just begun -- like, the end of this past week -- just begun getting serious about testing at scale and identifying cases. And the first week of March is going to put people into pure panic mode. The speed of the reports and numbers involved will be too much for people to cope with. And I don't reckon our current administration, which is basically a Cold War, really has the discipline and competence to suppress that. (Although the press conference today was surprisingly good.)

Really, our best bet is banking on seasonal variability, and that's currently a total unknown. Cheers!
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:08 am

Some interesting points from Peter Piot (background) on the position that WHO is in with China:

Via: https://www.ft.com/content/de0a7c9e-56f ... 0f971febbc

What’s the worst-case scenario with coronavirus, I ask. “That we’ll have a pandemic,” he replies. “I think it will get much worse in China. And here we will see more and more transmission. That’s my gut feeling. But how big it’s going to be, I honestly don’t know.”

He praises the role of the World Health Organization, which he says is nimbler under Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, an Ethiopian and its first African director. Dr Tedros has been criticised for going easy on China, which suppressed information in the early stages of the outbreak. “The dilemma is he could have his five minutes of fame by bashing China. But what happens afterwards? You need to work with them,” he says, scooping up some juicy borlotti beans.

“It’s a fine line. I learnt this the hard way,” he says, referring to 2002 when UNAids, the organisation he ran from 1995 to 2008, issued the so-called “Titanic Peril” report, which argued that China had many more cases of HIV than it was admitting. “It’s the only time that my then boss, Kofi Annan, called me on a Sunday afternoon. He said, ‘Peter, you’re a brave man, but nobody has ever won against the People’s Republic of China.’”

Piot gritted his teeth and publicly apologised. Still, he remembers a meeting a few years later with Wen Jiabao, then premier, in the Hall of the Purple Light in Zhongnanhai, the communist party’s inner sanctum.

“Wen asked me, ‘What’s the situation, what should we do?’ And I thought, you have 10 seconds to think. Am I going to be diplomatic or am I going to say the truth? He must have seen it. He said, ‘Forget who I am. Forget that we’re the Communist party. Tell me what you think and I’ll see what I can do.’ Piot advised Beijing to be more open about the problem and to work with people who were vulnerable, including drug addicts and sex workers, rather than jailing them. China’s policy changed decisively after that encounter.


Insightful but, of course, hardly encouraging.
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Wombaticus Rex
 
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Elvis » Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:31 am

stillrobertpaulsen wrote:Whatever happened to those lethally incompetent bureaucrats Spike Bowman and Mike Feghali?


viewtopic.php?f=8&t=35408&p=643547&hilit=spike+bowman#p643547

8)
“The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.” ― Joan Robinson
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