Wombaticus Rex » 18 Apr 2020 21:15 wrote:
Agree x Disagree is a pretty weak paradigm for uncertain times.
But, it's worth considering that "herd immunity" isn't an option with this.
That's essentially a bet that this is a naturally occurring, "zoonotic" coronavirus, right? That just happened to emerge within a few miles of the only Level 4 lab in China. Which just happened to be working on coronavirus variants since they opened. To me, that seems like a coin toss right now. I am also a fucking idiot, though, so factor that detail into all of my wagers.
No, its origin really doesn't matter as to that question, herd immunity is the goal with all novel contagions and natural herd immunity is best when mortality rates are low as they are with this virus. There are studies published over the last couple of weeks suggesting in terms of mortality it is no worse than a bad flu season, even Nature had to admit that the numbers coming back from Santa Clara look promising. This isn't Ebola gone wild, it isn't the black plague.
The "second wave" comes when we all go outside again, we aren't getting rid of it by staying inside, we're just prolonging the infection rate.
Scientifically, the tide turned this week, but we're seeing even more draconian control measures being pushed and a shitload of propaganda this weekend as if things are worse. That is a hint that this pandemic, however it arose, is being used as an op to move towards more overt authoritarianism, (and a host of other projects and tests).
What no one who is panicked over the virus seems to be considering is the predictable, inevitable death toll of economic collapse, delayed medical treatment for cancer and other conditions, and long term isolation. The UN estimated the economic shutdown would cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands of children across the globe. Who's talking about them?