Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby seemslikeadream » Fri Dec 03, 2010 11:17 am

Wikileaks: U2 spy flights targetting Hizbullah fuels tensions
Leaked US cables come as members of Shia organisation due to be indicted in murder of former prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri

Ian Black
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 2 December 2010 21.07 GMT

The leaked US cables came at a time of heightened tensions in Lebanon as members of Hizbullah face indictment over the murder of Rafiq al-Hariri. Photograph: Ramzi Haidar/AFP/Getty Images
Lebanese politicians and the media have already reacted nervously to the leaked US state department cables, so the further revelation of U2 spy flights targeting Hizbullah will fuel mounting domestic tension.

Beirut has been for weeks expecting trouble over members of the Shia organisation due to be indicted in the 2005 murder of the former prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri, above. Al-Akhbar, a pro-Hizbullah paper, today openly accused western-aligned politicians of being "informers" and collaborators in their dealings with US diplomats, as reported in the Wikileaks cables.

Nadim Shehadi, at London's Chatham House thinktank, called the Guardian's revelations of the secret US Cedar Wind flights from UK bases on Cyprus "sensational", since the cables suggest that they were authorised by the Lebanese ministry of defence alone and not the entire government. Britain's reservations about the spy flights were based in part on this aspect.

Furthermore, most Lebanese would assume that any intelligence gathered by the US on Hizbullah would be passed on to Israel, he added. "In the Lebanese context, that assumption is a certainty. People are already talking about preparations for the next war between Israel and Hizbullah."

Saad al-Hariri, the Lebanese prime minister, has already had to deny reports based on the leaked cables that he urged the United States to "go all the way" in stopping Iran's nuclear programme in August 2006.
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They could still get him out of office.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:54 am

AlicetheKurious wrote: Actually, I'm pretty sure (I'd have to check) that the US was initially behind Syria's military going into Lebanon.


Here's Juan Cole's version of events:

By 1975, the Maronites were no longer the dominant force in Lebanon. Of a 3 million population, the Shi'ites had grown to be 35 percent (and may now be 40 percent), and the Maronites had shrunk to a quarter, and are probably now 20 percent. The Shi'ites were mobilizing both politically and militarily. So, too, were the Palestinians.

The Maronite elite found the newly assertive Muslims of the south intolerable, and a war broke out between the Maronite party-militia the Phalange (modeled on Franco's and Mussolini's Brown Shirts) and the PLO. The war raged through 1975 and into 1976 (I saw some of it with my own eyes). The PLO was supported by the Druze and the Sunnis. They began winning against the Maronites.

The prospect of a PLO-dominated Lebanon scared the Syrians. Yasser Arafat would have been able to provoke battles with Israel at will, into which Syria might be drawn. Hafez al-Assad determined to intervene to stop it. First he sought a green light from the Israelis through Kissinger. He got it.

In the spring of 1976, the Syrians sent 40,000 troops into Lebanon and massacred the Palestinian fighters, saving the Maronites, with Israeli and U.S. approval. Since the Ba'athists in Syria should theoretically have been allies of the Palestinians, it was the damnedest thing. But it was just realpolitik on Assad's part. Syria felt that its national interests were threatened by developments in Lebanon and that it was in mortal danger if it did not occupy its neighbor.


And, from the SF Examiner:

But the clearest example of Syria's restored influence may be Walid Jumblatt. Five years ago, Jumblatt, a well-known Druze politician whose party holds swing votes in Lebanon's coalition government, marched with the pro-democracy March 14 movement against Syria's occupation. He now describes that period as a momentary lapse of sanity.

"I feel much more comfortable now. I'm back to my roots," Jumblatt said in an interview last month.

Jumblatt expresses gratitude that Syria re-established order at the end of the Lebanese civil war and suggests that Syria's military may need to take over the country again if Hezbollah is indicted by an international tribunal investigating the killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri and the country deteriorates into sectarian strife.

"It seems that, well, we cannot govern ourselves by ourselves," Jumblatt said. "Lebanon is not a nation. It's a bunch of tribes."
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sat Dec 04, 2010 4:50 am

The noise is getting louder:

    Al-Qaeda-linked militant group urges Lebanon's Sunnis to rise up against government, Hizbullah
    By Patrick Galey and Agence France Presse (AFP)
    Daily Star staff
    Thursday, December 02, 2010

    BEIRUT:
    A militant group affiliated with Al-Qaeda has urged Lebanon’s Sunni community to rise up against the government and challenge Hizbullah’s armed dominance in the country, a US jihadist monitoring website said Wednesday.

    The call coincided with that of the founder of the Salafi Movement, Dai al-Islam al-Shahhal, who asked Shiite parties to put an end to attempts to weaken Sunni political influence.

    “The Brigades of Abdullah Azzam released a statement from its field commander, Saleh bin Abdullah al-Qaraawi, urging Sunni Muslims in Lebanon to rise up against the government and the alleged de facto ruler, Hizbullah,” SITE Intelligence Group reported.

    Qaraawi was reported as attempting to stoke inter-sectarian tensions, as well as fermenting efforts to undermine the security situation, as maintained by the Lebanese Army. “We call upon you to not deal with the military intelligence and with its checkpoints that are present today in large numbers in your areas,” SITE quoted Qaraawi as saying. He also accused Hizbullah of colluding with the Lebanese Army over security: “Show your refusal of this clear injustice that is upon you, and which – undoubtedly – is done by the authority of Hizbullah.”

    Shahhal, in a Wednesday news conference in the northern city of Tripoli, warned that “means used by certain Shiite political groups are harmful and drag the conflict to an unethical sphere.”

    Qaraawi accused the Lebanese Army of victimizing Sunni residents.

    The group’s latest message comes at a time when fears of sectarian violence is heightened, due in large part to the political deadlock currently gripping Lebanon due to debate over the United Nations-backed probe into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

    Successive politicians have stressed that the kind of violence not seen in Lebanon since May 2008 – when pro-government and opposition gunmen clashed in west Beirut and parts of the Chouf Mountains – will not reappear in the event that anticipated Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) indictments against Hizbullah materialize.

    The Brigades of Abdullah Azzam accused Hizbullah of controlling Lebanese Army intelligence infrastructure which “didn’t defend Sunnis” during May 2008. Qaraawi suggested Hizbullah was gathering weapons in order to “slaughter” Sunni Lebanese.

    The group claims to be active throughout Lebanon and predominately operates in the country’s 14 officially recognized Palestinian refugee camps. In 2009, it took responsibility for a series of rocket attacks on northern Israel in a video, which labeled Hizbullah head Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah “a big imposter.”


    Several Sunni militant groups are known to operate in Lebanon, including Fatah al-Islam, against which the Lebanese Army fought bloody 2007 battles in the northern refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared. The fighting killed hundreds and razed most of the camp’s buildings.

    Dozens of individuals linked with Al-Qaeda-affiliated operations are currently held in Lebanese custody. – With AFP Link

It seems that the Israelis are no longer hopeful that the STL will issue the indictments in time to justify a military attack or crippling sanctions, and are activating Plan B.

No doubt Hizbullah, as usual, is two steps ahead of them.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Thu Dec 09, 2010 8:41 am

Bellemarre has no credible case, but he's under pressure to issue an indictment before December 31.

Someone's come up with a solution that buys time and still beats the December 31st deadline, after which the Tribunal's ruling will no longer provide legal cover for a military attack or economic sanctions against Lebanon:

    No details on indictment for months - registrar
    Tribunal’s $65.7 mln budget allocates funds for trial proceedings ‘toward end’ of 2011

    By Michael Bluhm
    Daily Star staff
    Tuesday, December 07, 2010

    BEIRUT:
    While the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s (STL) prosecutor will submit an indictment to the pretrial judge in the coming weeks, the public will almost certainly not find out any information for several months about the names of the accused or the evidence against them, the tribunal’s chief executive told The Daily Star Monday.

    In unveiling the court’s $65.7 million budget for 2011, acting registrar Herman von Hebel said the budget had allocated funds to hold trial proceedings “toward the end of next year.”

    The looming indictment has sparked ongoing turmoil in Lebanon, as Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has said that he expects the tribunal to charge party members, although he has termed the court an Israeli tool to weaken Hizbullah and called on all Lebanese to boycott the STL. Prime Minister Saad Hariri has continued to express unwavering support for the tribunal, and the clash over the court has scuttled a number of Cabinet meetings and intensified the polarization of the political scene.

    Von Hebel confirmed that prosecutor Daniel Bellemare would file his indictment with the pretrial judge shortly, as von Hebel said he expected the pretrial judge to be working on the indictment in January. However, the public should anticipate that Bellemare will request that the pretrial judge keep the indictment sealed, said tribunal spokesman Crispin Thorold.

    Do not expect to get information about the content of the indictment,” Thorold said.

    In order to avoid speculation, Bellemare will publicly announce the submission of the indictment when he presents it to pretrial judge Daniel Fransen, Bellemare’s office said an email late Sunday.

    Considering the number of steps before the names of those charged and the evidence are revealed, the public should not expect that Bellemare filing the indictment will do anything to clear up the question of who killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, von Hebel said. The acting registrar said the “common expectation” among the Lebanese that Bellemare will unmask Hariri’s assassins in the near future was mistaken.

    “Sometimes I get the impression that the indictment is the final determination of who’s responsible for the killing of Mr. Hariri,” von Hebel said. “An indictment is really only the beginning of a process.”

    Once Fransen has the indictment, he will likely launch proceedings with the court’s appeals chamber so that he can clarify legal issues raised by the indictment, von Hebel said. This intermediary stage is one of the changes introduced last month to the court’s rules on procedure and evidence, in a step designed to speed up the STL’s work, von Hebel said. The content of these consultations should be public, he added.

    Only after Fransen reviews the evidence, indictment and consults the appeals chamber will the pretrial judge decide to confirm all or part of Bellemare’s indictment. “It is only in the first quarter of next year that we may see a decision by the pretrial judge,” von Hebel said. Should the court be able to detain any of those indicted, the phase of disclosure of all evidence between prosecution and defense attorneys would then need to be finished before a trial could begin, the registrar added.

    While the tribunal’s management committee approved the $65.7 million budget last month, some Cabinet ministers from the Hizbullah-led March 8 political alliance have pushed to rescind Lebanon’s pledge to contribute 49 percent of the court’s financing. If Lebanon does not put up its share of the budget for next year, von Hebel said the robust international backing for the court should allow him to raise the funds from other donors.

    I see a strong commitment from the international community to support the tribunal,” he said. The total budget “is not an amount that is completely undoable.” He added that he believed that Lebanon would fulfill its monetary obligations to the tribunal. “We hope and expect the 49 percent to come,” von Hebel said.

    Donors have made pledges for $10-$15 million of the remaining 51 percent of next year’s budget, with the US promising $10 million, France about $2 million and Italy about $800,000, the registrar said. Despite noticing the effects of the economic crisis in his discussions with possible donors, von Hebel said he thought he would succeed in raising all the funding necessary for 2011. “I’m pretty hopeful and pretty optimistic about the potential to [raise] the funding,” he said. “I do recognize a strong political commitment. [Donors] are very keen on seeing a continuation of the tribunal.”

    The STL split the budget into two parts, with $56.9 million earmarked for the tribunal’s functioning regardless of judicial proceedings and $8.8 million dedicated to potential trial activity, von Hebel said. Roughly two-thirds of the budget will go toward personnel costs: the court employs about 325 staff, and the 2011 budget allows for an additional 27 staff members, the registrar added. The other one-third of the budget will pay for STL operations, von Hebel said. The court’s budget for 2010 was $55.3 million.

    Von Hebel, who has served as the acting registrar since March, also said that he had interviewed for the position of registrar; the interview panel should make its recommendation for the position soon to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, he added. Link

Also, the Lebanese government is paralysed because Prime Minister Hariri has refused to convene any Cabinet meeting for weeks, since the Hizbullah-led March 8 group announced that the first item to be discussed during the next Cabinet meeting would be a vote to refer the false-witnesses case to the Judicial Council. The Hariri-led March 14 movement insists that there is no rush to deal with the false-witnesses issue, and it can wait until after the STL has issued its indictment.

Conspiracy? What conspiracy?
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby Ben D » Sun Dec 12, 2010 8:14 pm

'Seven reasons why STL is illegitimate'

Sun Dec 12, 2010 7:1P

A press conference in Lebanon has raised questions about the legitimacy of the US-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

Hariri was killed in a massive car bombing in the Lebanese capital of Beirut on February 14, 2005. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) was set up in May 2007 on an apparent mandate from Beirut to investigate the murder. The tribunal is expected to announce its findings by the end of 2010 amid allegations that it is going to accuse members of the Lebanese resistance movement of Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's Secretary General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah has rejected the allegation, warning that the plot was part of "a dangerous project that is targeting the resistance."

Political analysts have warned that such indictments are meant to sow discord in Lebanon.

The recent conference, which addressed issues surrounding the performance of the tribunal, was attended by Mohammad Raad, the head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, and Dr. Salim Jreissati, a Lebanese judge and former member of the Lebanese Constitutional Council.

The first topic to be discussed at the event was, “Article 52 of the Lebanese Constitution considers the president as the only person with the authority to enter negotiations with the aim of signing agreements between Lebanon and international parties.”

This is while in the case of Hariri's assassination, his successor Prime Minister Fouad Siniora led negotiations authorizing the establishment of the court, which was sent to the cabinet based on a petition signed by members of parliament's majority bloc.

The motion was later endorsed by cabinet ministers an official Lebanese agreement without being put to a vote in parliament.

The conference provided seven reasons why the tribunal was a political court, which had failed to observe the barometers of pursuing justice, contravened the Lebanese Constitution and promoted the interests of international powers instead of Beirut.

1. Unlawful and illegal establishment of the Hariri tribunal, which violates Article 52 of the Lebanese Constitution and failure to obtain parliamentary approval.

2. Failure to observe the principle of confidentiality in preliminary investigations and the selective and political leakage of information and arguments to the news outlets listed below:

The Kuwaiti Al-Siyasa on May 21, 2005 and on March 28, 2009
The French Le Figaro on August 19, 2006
The German Der Spiegel on May 23, 2009
The Saudi Elaph website on July 8, 2009
The French r Le Monde on February 14, 2010
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) on November 23, 2010

3. Requesting the telephone contact data of all Lebanese citizens and their exchanged text messages and failing to limit their request to suspected individuals.

4. Changing and modifying the courts internal regulations in violation of the provisions of its agreement with Lebanon and compelling Lebanon to offer information about individual who were not suspects.

5. Infringement on the country's independence and sovereignty through requesting information that could endanger Lebanon's national security. The interference and activities of the tribunal's investigative committee was of such massive scale over the past five years that any portion of the country's security and political information cannot be kept from alien reach.

In this regard Detlev Mehlis, Serge Brammertz, Daniel Bellemare, who each led the investigation for some time, and the other employees of the court's investigative committee, were from different countries, could have accessed any information about Lebanon.

6. The use of unreliable evidence under the pretext that in acts of terrorist it is impossible to access credible and legal evidence. In this regard, Bellemare told the Lebanese news website NOW Lebanon that evidence alone holds little value but when put together, they form an unquestionable theory.

7. The courts defective performance and the suspicious affiliation of its members to certain foreign intelligence institutions. The court operated on the theory that Syria is the prime suspect in the case and four Lebanese security officials, who had good relations with Syria, were detained for four years and Syrian officials were interrogated.

But suddenly the court changed its stance, targeted other people and another group and released the four detained officers without any explanation.

Why is it the despite Israel's repeated terrorist attacks in Lebanon and its involvement in regional conflict, does the court refuse to lay suspicion on Israel or interrogate its officials?

Aditionally, the court has refused to include Israel in its investigations depute its infiltration of the Lebanese telecommunications network and its direct control over it.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/155201.html

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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby vanlose kid » Sun Dec 19, 2010 1:32 am

WikiLeaks goes backstage in Lebanon's Hariri case
Leaked cables: Special Tribunal for Lebanon sought help from US amid frustrations with Syria, anger at France.


Middle East Online
By Natacha Yazbeck – BEIRUT


US diplomatic cables unveiled by WikiLeaks have exposed backstage manoeuvres surrounding a UN investigation into the murder of Lebanese ex-premier Rafiq Hariri, stoking new controversy around the probe.

The cables, which are among some 4,000 more secret documents on Lebanon expected to be released by the whistleblower website or its affiliates, reveal UN frustrations with both Syria and France over their level of cooperation with the probe.

They also detail repeated appeals from investigators for US assistance and show their deep concern over the detention without charge for four years of four high-ranking Lebanese security officials in connection with Hariri's 2005 assassination.

The new WikiLeaks revelations come as the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), tasked with investigating the massive Beirut bombing that killed Hariri and 22 others, is reportedly poised to indict members of Hezbollah in connection with the murder.

The powerful Shiite militant group, which fought a devastating 2006 war with Israel, has warned any such accusation would have grave repercussions in Lebanon.

According to a series of cables obtained by WikiLeaks and published by Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar on its website, STL prosecutor Daniel Bellemare last year complained to then US ambassador Michele Sison that Syria, initially accused of Hariri's murder, was treating his investigators as "school kids in short pants."

"They provide us with 40,000 pages in Arabic. After we translate them and find nothing of interest, they feign surprise and hand us another 40,000 pages," read a cable dated January 27, 2009.

According to another cable published by the English-language Daily Star newspaper, Bellemare's predecessor, Serge Brammertz, complained in 2006 to then US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, now a deputy secretary of state, that France was withholding its cooperation from the investigation.

Brammertz is quoted as saying that even Syria had been more cooperative than some EU countries.

Both Brammertz and Bellemare voiced concern that the detention of the four Lebanese generals, who were released last year, violated international law.

Bellemare acknowledged that the timing of their release was sensitive and could bolster Hezbollah and its allies in the run-up to a parliamentary election in Lebanon in 2009.

Another leaked cable detailing a request from Bellemare for additional assistance from the United States -- already a major donor to the STL -- made headlines in the Lebanese press.

The prosecutor is quoted as asking Sison for information on Syria and, in a separate cable, requesting that the United States loan his inquiry two analysts whose salaries, along with others, would be paid for by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation.

"Bellemare showed a good understanding of the problems associated with complying ... but his frustration was nonetheless evident: 'You are the key player. If the US doesn't help me, who will?'," read the cable, dated October 2008.


Hezbollah has said the leaks are further proof the United States is manipulating the probe.

"The information leaked on meetings between the prosecutor and the (then) US ambassador confirms what we have always said -- that the US administration is using the court and the investigation committee as a tool to target the resistance," Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah said.

Another cable published by the Daily Star quotes a top security official as saying he believed Hezbollah operative Abdul Majid Ghamloush was linked to Hariri's murder and two subsequent political assassinations.

One figure that features prominently in the US embassy cables is Walid Jumblatt, head of Lebanon's minority Druze community.

"Jumblatt warned that, despite recent progress with the Special Tribunal, Syria would not change its behaviour until the Assad regime truly feels threatened," read a cable dated February 21, 2008, referring to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Jumblatt, once a vociferous critic of Damascus, last year pulled a political volte-face by quitting the pro-Western coalition he helped create in order to move closer to the Hezbollah-led camp supported by Syria and Iran.

His only reaction to the leaks was to say his current position was "real, natural and historic" and to suggest a return to "pigeon carriers or mail on horseback," saying it was "safer".

http://middle-east-online.com/english/?id=42955

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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sun Dec 19, 2010 6:34 am

Interesting, in terms of what's not mentioned:

Another leaked cable detailing a request from Bellemare for additional assistance from the United States -- already a major donor to the STL -- made headlines in the Lebanese press.

The prosecutor is quoted as asking Sison for information on Syria and, in a separate cable, requesting that the United States loan his inquiry two analysts whose salaries, along with others, would be paid for by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation.

"Bellemare showed a good understanding of the problems associated with complying ... but his frustration was nonetheless evident: 'You are the key player. If the US doesn't help me, who will?'," read the cable, dated October 2008.


There have been a number of reports that Bellemare specifically requested the images from both American and Israeli spy satellites covering the time and place of the Hariri assassination, and was refused. It certainly makes sense that Bellemare would indeed make such a request as part of his investigation. Do the Wikileaks cables mention anything about that, or only the two items mentioned above? (i.e. "information on Syria" and "two analysts"?)

In any case, we are left with three questions: If Bellemarre did make such a request, then why did the US and/or Israel refuse to provide these images? If Bellemare did not make such a request, then why the hell not? And, if Bellemare did make such a request and was refused and the cables neglect any reference to it, instead specifying only that Bellemare was interested in Syria, wouldn't that suggest that the cables, if genuine, have been censored to omit this telling reference?

The first two questions cast serious doubt on any remaining credibility of the STL; the third question addresses the probability that Wikileaks was suspiciously selective in its choice of what information to "leak" and what to keep hidden.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Sun Dec 19, 2010 12:43 pm

AlicetheKurious wrote:In any case, we are left with three questions: If Bellemarre did make such a request, then why did the US and/or Israel refuse to provide these images? If Bellemare did not make such a request, then why the hell not? And, if Bellemare did make such a request and was refused and the cables neglect any reference to it, instead specifying only that Bellemare was interested in Syria, wouldn't that suggest that the cables, if genuine, have been censored to omit this telling reference?

The first two questions cast serious doubt on any remaining credibility of the STL; the third question addresses the probability that Wikileaks was suspiciously selective in its choice of what information to "leak" and what to keep hidden.


As usual, you're problem with the cables is that they don't specifically address the issues of you concern, though the unsurprising confirmation of deep US involvement is there. I can think of any number of reasons the cables might'nt feature the information you seek, for instance, data concerning spy satellite penetrations would probably be classified above the "secret " designation, or at least I should hope it would be.

And also as usual, your interesting questions further pique my curiosity about the contents of the indictments. The longer this whole thing goes on, the more curious everyone becomes, and the more difficult it becomes to downplay those indictments, or to dissolve the tribunal entirely. But it appears we 're gonna have to wait another month at least.

Iraq says Lebanon indictment to be delayed

Postponement of step until January linked to new US approach on Iran – foreign minister

By Hussein Dakroub
Daily Star staff
Saturday, December 18, 2010

BEIRUT: An impending draft indictment into the 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which was widely expected to be released this month, will now be postponed until next month in a move linked to a new US approach toward Iran, Iraq’s foreign minister said in remarks published Friday.

The reported postponement of the indictment is apparently linked to a new approach in US policy aimed to defuse political tensions with Iran and other hot spots, including Lebanon, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said.

Zebari spelled out the new US approach following his meeting in New York with Vice President Joe Biden. Zebari attended a UN Security Council meeting Wednesday that ended key international sanctions imposed on Iraq during the Saddam Hussein era over weapons of mass destruction.

Asked to comment on America’s policy toward Iran, Zebari said in an interview with the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, “It [US policy] is heading toward pacification, rather than an escalation or a complication of the situation and relations [with Iran].”

“This is what I have sensed concerning [Iran’s] nuclear issue and the tribunal,” he said, referring to the UN-appointed Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), which is prosecuting suspects in Hariri’s assassination.

“There is currently a tendency toward postponing the release of the indictment due to requests, probably even Lebanese requests,” Zebari said.

However, Zebari noted that any postponement of the indictment would not be indefinite. “Instead of [the indictment] being issued this month, it will probably be issued next month,” he said.

By virtue of it being an “important regional player,” Zebari said Iraq was following up developments of the tribunal. “We are also a party in this equation. We are not absent from US-Iranian relations, [Iran’s] nuclear issue, the situation in Lebanon, the tribunal’s decision or indictment and from relations with Syria,” Zebari added.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sun Dec 19, 2010 2:26 pm

barracuda wrote:I can think of any number of reasons the cables might'nt feature the information you seek, for instance, data concerning spy satellite penetrations would probably be classified above the "secret " designation, or at least I should hope it would be.


That both the US and Israel permanently keep spy satellites over Lebanon, indeed over every country in the region, is common knowledge, has been for decades, and is openly acknowledged by even official sources. If indeed, as has been reported, Bellemare asked the US or Israel or both to provide him with satellite images from the time and place of the Hariri assassination, he would simply be doing the minimum expected in such an investigation and the mere fact that he asked could in no way be considered classified or secret information.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Sun Dec 19, 2010 2:42 pm

barracuda wrote:The longer this whole thing goes on, the more curious everyone becomes, and the more difficult it becomes to downplay those indictments, or to dissolve the tribunal entirely.


Yeah, well, I don't think the US or Israel would have allowed the indictments to be downplayed or the tribunal to be dissolved, regardless. At least now, by the time the tribunal does issue the indictments, especially if they rely on the tainted telecommunications "evidence", it will have been thoroughly exposed and discredited for being the politicized, unprofessional and biased tool that it is. More importantly, the targets of this latest conspiracy will have had time to prepare for what is sure to follow the indictments: yet another in a long line of zionist aggressions against Lebanon.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Sun Dec 19, 2010 10:40 pm

AlicetheKurious wrote:That both the US and Israel permanently keep spy satellites over Lebanon, indeed over every country in the region, is common knowledge...


That is a fair estimate, but satellite intel is usually not such that US space-based reconnaisance might have useful information on the precise spot of Hariri's assassination at that precise moment. Spy satellites are just earth-facing telescopes - they have to be pointed.

And even if common knowledge is correct, that doesn't mean that details regarding the capabilities or limitations of these satellites would be routinely communicated in low-level classified communications such as the cables. Most hard aspects of space-based recon are unknown and undiscussed. I have yet to see in any of the cables information regarding such sensitive security equipment. And I certainly wouldn't expect Israel, of all people, to volunteer any tactical information in what amounts to a public investigation. They won't.

Also, Lebanon prior to 2006 was not necessarily enough of a hot spot to qualify for the level of US satellite recon that might help the inquiry. If that were the case, would you expect that information to be available at a low-level classification? Probably not, but of course I'm just guessing. They don't want people to know when they're not watching.

AlicetheKurious wrote:[At least now, by the time the tribunal does issue the indictments, especially if they rely on the tainted telecommunications "evidence", it will have been thoroughly exposed and discredited for being the politicized, unprofessional and biased tool that it is.


After all this time, I'm very doubtful that they would issue indictments solely on that basis. Something else is afoot.

More importantly, the targets of this latest conspiracy will have had time to prepare for what is sure to follow the indictments: yet another in a long line of zionist aggressions against Lebanon.


I suppose you mean that if Hezbollah is named in the indictment, Israel, in the guise of a US/UN aggression, will be "forced" to use economic sanctions or military means to procure those named to appear before the tribunal. But if Ghamloush is named, then there is bound to be a Syrian aspect to the indictment as well, which I had thought was already mooted. And I have a feeling the Syrians are prepared for a variety of contingencies.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Mon Dec 20, 2010 5:33 am

barracuda wrote:I suppose you mean that if Hezbollah is named in the indictment, Israel, in the guise of a US/UN aggression, will be "forced" to use economic sanctions or military means to procure those named to appear before the tribunal. But if Ghamloush is named, then there is bound to be a Syrian aspect to the indictment as well, which I had thought was already mooted. And I have a feeling the Syrians are prepared for a variety of contingencies.


As you might know by now, I think this whole show is a smokescreen to disguise Israel's true objectives with regard to Lebanon and Syria. In contrast with Iran, where Israel is content to merely cripple and isolate the country and render it unable to support Resistance movements, in order for Israel to realize its longstanding pipeline ambitions and its even more longstanding territorial ambitions in Lebanon, nothing less than total control over both countries will do, preferably via puppet administrators and the establishment of Israel-controlled military bases.

Whether the STL is used to provide a pretext for economic sanctions first, to "soften up" Lebanon, depends on how patient the Israelis are willing to be and to what extent they believe that economic sanctions will help them achieve their goal of eradicating the Lebanese Resistance, which represents the main obstacle to Israel's plans for Lebanon. If I were to venture a guess, I'd say that the current noise about Iran is a fog behind which the Israelis are preparing to yet again attack Lebanon, this time relying almost totally on heavy air bombardment and massive use of US-supplied bunker-busters and minimizing the use of ground troops until after they are sure the Resistance has been destroyed.

I have no doubt that as usual, the Israelis who tend to be blinded by their own wishful thinking and pathological arrogance, will be shocked to discover that all their moves have been anticipated and effective counter-moves already made.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Mon Dec 20, 2010 6:37 am

The Daily Star reports on Wikileaks:

Turning to the issue of international cooperation with investigator’s requests, Brammertz alleged that France – a long-time vocal supporter of the probe into Hariri’s death – had been particularly “flatly non-cooperative.”

“After Brammertz asked this country’s ambassador in Lebanon for access to interview a suspect in that country’s territory [almost certainly a reference to Zuheir Siddiq, the "false witness" who used perjured testimony to implicate Syria -- Alice], the ambassador came back with all kinds of conditions about how the interview would take place, how the testimony could or could not be used, in order to comply with EU standards. Brammertz said, ‘I told him, if you were Syria, I would write in my report that you refused to cooperate with the investigation. He was shocked, of course, but it’s true. I’ve had better cooperation from Syria than some of the EU countries.’”

In an earlier meeting with Feltman on July 6, 2006 – 16 months after Hariri’s death and over a year after the investigation began – Brammertz is said to have advised that there was no legal basis for the four generals’ continued detention.

“Brammertz explained that, if any sort of international legal standards were applied, the four generals would be released immediately. At the same time, however, he acknowledged that doing so would be a political disaster for Lebanon,” a cable on the meeting read.

Brammertz, who succeeded Detlev Mehlis as UNIIIC commissioner, reportedly labeled three now-discredited witnesses – whose testimonies were used in the four generals’ incarceration – as completely unreliable. He suggested Mehlis had overstepped his jurisdiction in advising the four be detained.

“Brammertz said that much of his work, though, is focused on completing three ‘legacy projects,’ final appraisals of the testimony provided by Zuhair Mohammad Siddiq, Hussam Hussam, and ‘X,’ a ‘protected witness located in a Nordic country,’” Feltman’s cable said.

“As he prepared his final evaluation of each witness, Brammertz said he could discount most of the testimony from all three. Maybe 20 percent of Siddiq’s testimony was based on fact, Brammertz suggested, but his credibility as a witness is so low that none of his testimony would stand up in court. He described Hussam also as an unreliable witness, but suggested that he probably does have important information.”

Brammertz also apparently ruled out all of the Syrian government’s involvement in the crime – a startling confession given the relatively early stage of the investigations of the UNIIIC.

“Syria has five different state security apparatuses. I can’t imagine that an order came down from the president and worked its way through all the security services and until they killed Hariri,” Brammertz is quoted as saying. “If anything, you probably had one security service involved, and the order came from on high and, how high, we’ll have to figure out.”

In a separate cable detailing the arguments of Jamil as-Sayyed’s lawyer, the US Embassy advised: “That Brammertz is worried about [Lebanon’s] continued ability to detain the four generals is cause for us to worry as well.”

The cable continued: “Besides having a seismic effect on the political situation here, Sayyed’s release might well have security implications for us as a diplomatic missions. If Sayyed gets out, he is going to be angry and seeking payback, and he is going to see the United States as at least partly responsible for his interrogation by the UNIIIC and his long months in detention.”

Sayyed’s lawyer is said to have submitted a formal complaint to UN investigations, saying that interrogation techniques used by former UNIIIC Chief Investigator Gerhard Lehmann “violate[d] international legal norms.”

A May 2006 meeting with UNIIIC Acting Chief of Investigations Peter Nicholson allegedly raised the issue of US spy images of Lebanon. A cable about discussions with Nicholson supposedly sheds light on the level of US involvement in UNIIIC investigations.

“Nicholson also said he is still interested in seeing overhead imagery of Beirut, Anjar, and the Zabadani base in Syria. The UNIIIC is interested more broadly in Syrian patterns of activity in Beirut, Anjar and Zabadani, and would like to see if the [US] has any more surveillance that could be made available for this purpose.

Ideally, [Nicholson] would like to see as many as 12 overhead shots of Beirut from January 1 to February 20, 2005. He also said he would like to see any available satellite imagery taken over Anjar and Zabadani between July 1, 2004, and December 31, 2005,” one cable said.

“He realized the difficulty of these requests, given the classification levels of satellite imagery, but he would be happy with anything the [US] could provide. Regardless of the date of the imagery – the [US] could even ‘pick a date’ – it could be of use to the UNIIIC, regardless of whether any sign of a white Mitsubishi van turned up
. Specifically, the imagery could help the UNIIIC corroborate certain witness accounts. Particularly in the case of Anjar, the UNIIIC was interested in signs of ‘vehicles stored for operations’ Nicholson said.”

Although no comment is made in the cables by Feltman on Brammertz’s request, the frequent mention of US intelligence operations in Lebanon is likely to further fuel debate over the impartiality of the UN investigations into Hariri’s death, as well as cast aspersions on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) – a court long subjected to allegations of politicization.

In the same meeting, Nicholson reportedly informed Feltman that data from the crime scene was being sent to the United States’ FBI.

“Nicholson provided emboffs [embassy officials] with DNA profiles of suspected Hariri bomber Ahmad Abu Adass and Adass’ family members, as well as DNA analysis of an unidentified “John Doe” found at the February 14 blast site, [officials have] sent these profiles back to FBI headquarters for further analysis,” the cable said.

The cables suggest that Brammertz and his team, in spite of repeated setbacks, had been progressing well with investigations. A recent report by Canadian broadcaster CBC alleged that UNIIIC workers had been disorganized, even incompetent, in their early operations. It reported that information obtained on phone records had been ignored by the UNIIIC until late 2007 – a claim which information in the leaked diplomatic documents refutes.

“[Brammertz] said that the UNIIIC has collected hundreds of phone numbers from the calling records of six Tripoli cell phones associated with the February 14, 2005, assassination of Hariri,” one cable said.

“He also said that the UNIIIC is conducting interviews with members of the ‘Naba cell,’ Sunni militants detained by the ISF (Internal Security Forces) in May. Brammertz said that the detained suspects still have not been formally charged by Lebanese authorities. As a result, they have had no contact with defense attorneys.”

Discussions turned to the 14 other assassinations the UNIIIC was tasked with probing and Brammertz divulged that just three investigators were dealing with those cases.

“Nonetheless, Brammertz said it was obvious, from an analytical if not purely material perspective, that the 14 bombings are linked to the Hariri assassination**. ‘You have enough links,’ Brammertz explained, ‘same modus operandi, same explosives, similar targets.’ Phone numbers that had turned up in the Hariri investigation had turned up in some of the 14 other cases as well. Piles of cigarettes found at the scenes of some of the bombings might provide a link as well, he said,” a cable from the meeting said.

At the end of the meeting, Brammertz is said to have outlined to UN officials UNIIIC’s plan to offer suspected conspirators plea bargains in exchange for conclusive information on Hariri’s killing.

“In his view, the best chance to close the case and bring it to a prosecutable level would be to ‘turn’ a person or persons who could provide or describe the link between those responsible and the crime,” the cable said. “Brammertz’s investigators have scheduled another 150-200 interviews over the next six months, and of these, approximately 30 are with individuals who may have the knowledge that could provide this critical linkage. The difficult part is to convince one or more of those involved to “make a deal” with the [UNIIIC].”

Feltman wrote that Brammertz had even advocated regime change in Lebanon in order to coax suspects into talking. “Brammertz continued that another development that could facilitate witnesses coming forward would be a change in the [Emile] Lahoud presidency,” the cable said. Link


**Interestingly, in the same press conference in which Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah showed footage intercepted from Israeli spy planes that were monitoring Rafiq Hariri prior to his assassination, he also demonstrated that the Israelis were similarly monitoring the movements of the anti-Syrian and pro-American "March 14" members who were assassinated, heightening tensions even more between Lebanon and Syria in the aftermath of the Hariri assassination.
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby AlicetheKurious » Mon Dec 20, 2010 7:01 am

More from the Wikileaks:

HOW THE U.S. CAN HELP
---------------------

¶7. (C) When asked how the USG could best support Lebanon at this juncture, Jumblatt said he was pleased to see the USG's recent public statements on Syria's efforts to build nuclear weapons. Jumblatt half-jokingly said that the U.S. should now send the USS Nimitz to intimidate Syria. Jumblatt also suggested U.S. assistance for Lebanese prisons (in response to recent prison riots in Roumieh). Rizk added that a roadmap would be helpful to lay out how the U.S. can best support the Ministry of Justice (in addition to the ongoing $7 million USAID judicial training program).

¶8. (C) Jumblatt noted that the GOL had yet to receive the $1 billion central bank deposit promised by the Saudis. Minister Tohme opined that the holdup is due to "Saudi culture," and the best way to get the money would be for Prime Minister Foaud Siniora to send his advisor, Mohammed Chatah, to spend four or five days sitting in Riyadh "to move things along.

CONTINUED IMPORTANCE OF UNIIIC
------------------------------

¶9. (C) Jumblatt said the Special Tribunal was "not enough" to intimidate Syria. Rizk chimed in to acknowledge that work on the Special Tribunal was "frightening to Syria until recently." Both agreed that Syrian President Bashar Assad won't care about the Tribunal in a year's time. Rizk repeated his concerns that UNIIIC Commissioner Daniel Bellemare had stated to some that he has no case. Rizk said the U.S. can help by directing Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad to ask the UN SYG to impress upon Bellemare the importance of his role as prosecutor for the Tribunal.

¶10. (C) Rizk pointed out that Bellemare should not be disassociating UNIIIC from the detention of the four generals suspected of involvement in Rafiq Hariri's assassination because the blame then falls squarely on XXXXXXXXXXXX.


Could XXXXXXXXXXXX possibly be Israel?
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Re: Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

Postby barracuda » Wed Dec 22, 2010 4:01 pm

Lebanon PM halts backing of Hariri tribunal amid tensions with Hezbollah

Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri said on Tuesday that Lebanon will ask the United Nations to halt the probe of an international tribunal into the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the pro-Syrian Lebanese newspaper a-Diar reported on Wednesday.

According to the report, Hariri said on Tuesday that he intends on giving up on the findings of the tribunal "for the interests of the country."

Hariri was quoted as saying that the Lebanese government will turn to the UN to "work to stop the activities of the tribunal and to cancel the work protocol between the government and the tribunal."

Moreover, the newspaper quoted Hariri as saying that he will stand by Hezbollah if the group is found guilty by the tribunal, and that Lebanon will not support any of the tribunal's further activities.

"I have already sacrificed a lot, and I cannot sacrifice more," Hariri said.
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