Iran reaching out to US on post-Assad set-up? - ME1 and ME1386Date 2011-12-13 16:02:19
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Reva's note - this is extremely interesting, especially the bolded part
below. DOes Iran really think it can convince the US to collaborate with
them on regime change in SYria in such a way that will end up in Iran's
favor? the whole point of the US focusing in on Syria is to contain Iran
in the first place. This sounds like the Iranians are getting to be in an
increasingly desperate position. Always be wary of source bias, but why
would a HZ source want to spread info on the weakness of the Syrian regime
and the lack of options for Iran? I do believe the part about Iran
preferring a palace coup over the Turkish strategy of building up an
opposition via FSA.
SOURCE: ME1 and ME1386
ATTRIBUTION: STRATFOR source
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: ME1 and member of Hamas politburo
PUBLICATION: Yes - worth a tactical analysis
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B-C
ITEM CREDIBILITY: B-C
SPECIAL HANDLING: Alpha
SOURCE HANDLER: Reva
Marhaba Reva,
I strongly believe that Asad's regime will fall in 2012. The conventional
wisdom that Asad will survive, because both Iran and Israel view him with
favor, is a thing of the past. The situation in Syria has reached the
point of no return. It is true than nine months of demonstrations have not
brought down the regime but, by the same token, regime brutality and heavy
handedness have not quelled the uprising. If anything, the level of
hostilities and army defections is on the rise.
The breaking point will come when the military establishment realizes that
Asad must go. There are signs that the military establishment is beginning
to disintegrate. I talked to [ME1386] and he told me that Alawite officers
and enlisted men are beginning to join the ranks of the FSA. This
represents a major development. Alawite officers are divided since many of
them are unhappy about the use of excessive force against Sunni
protesters. Alawite officers are aware that Asad is trying to find an
asylum for himself and his family should his regime become unslavageable.
This is upsetting many Alawites who are coming to realize that Asad will
abandon them. If so, they reason that it would be suicidal to continue to
win the wrath of the Sunnis. Walid al-Muallim offered to resign but Asad
turned down his request. This is a clear indicator that many of Asad's men
are realizing that they are putting a vain fight against the burgeoning
uprising.
The Iranians are weighing in the situation in Syria very carefully. One
must read beyond the public statements of the Iranians, especially
ayatollah Khamenei. Both Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have concluded that
Asad's regime cannot be rescued. It is perfectly understood that the
regime in Damascus will fall along lines similar to the Libyan model.
There will have to be a coup in Damascus, be it a military or political
one.
One must not dismiss the pragmatism of Khamenei. Iran appears to be
willing to use its influence in Syria to stage a coup, provided that it is
able to ensure that the new leadership will continue to pursue excellent
relations with Tehran. The Iranians have approached the Americans on this.
In the past, Iran collaborated with the U.S. on the ouster of Saddam
Hussein and Iran won big in Iraq. The Iranians would not mind working
again on ousting Asad if they can secure good results in Syria. Syria's
contiguity to Iraq allows Iran to play a direct role in the affairs of
Damascus.
The Iranians feel they need to act on Syria soon because the Turks have
their own plans for Syria and are not coordinating with the Iranians. He
says the Turks are moving slowly but systematically. Iran does not want to
allow Turkey to take over Syria. Whereas the Turks are coordinating with
the Brotherhood and the FSA, the Iranians prefer a palace coup in damascus
in order to maintain their ties with Asad's successors. What is delaying
action in Syria is the fact that the U.S. has not yet decided on the shape
of the post-Asad political system. Nevertheless, he insists that Asad's
regime will fall, although the future of Syria after the regime change
remains nebulous.