How Bad Is Global Warming?

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Re:

Postby Elihu » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:07 am

wintler2 wrote:The Insurance Council of Australia has officially declared three natural disasters so far for 2013 (the Tasmanian bush fires, New South Wales bush fires, and cyclone Oswald).

And lets not forget Ozs hottest day EVER, 7 Jan 2012
Image or that for the first time ever, the continent recorded five consecutive days with an average temperature exceeding 39 degrees; each of the first six days of 2013 were amongst the 20 hottest days on record.


so what you're saying is, that you would like to see a reduction in hydrocarbon combustion so this or a nearby heatmap will become the north bookend to the record books? how cool would you like to see it? is there a normal range? how much will hydrocarbon combustion need to be reduced in order to achieve the desired mean temperature? will co2 need to be maintained at a certain level to prevent cooling? how do you propose to reduce hydrocarbon combustion? taxation of consumers? will hydrocarbons combusted by governments (civil servants and militaries discharging their duties) be taxed or exempt? will the kitty go into the general fund? what is the lead time or sliding scale between reduced combustion and aggregate response of the climate? are we talking years, decades, or centuries?
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Re: Re:

Postby wintler2 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:23 am

Elihu wrote:so what you're saying is, that you would like to see a reduction in hydrocarbon combustion so this or a nearby heatmap will become the north bookend to the record books? how cool would you like to see it? is there a normal range? how much will hydrocarbon combustion need to be reduced in order to achieve the desired mean temperature? will co2 need to be maintained at a certain level to prevent cooling? how do you propose to reduce hydrocarbon combustion? taxation of consumers? will hydrocarbons combusted by governments (civil servants and militaries discharging their duties) be taxed or exempt? will the kitty go into the general fund? what is the lead time or sliding scale between reduced combustion and aggregate response of the climate? are we talking years, decades, or centuries?

I'd love to discuss the numerous misapprehensions and canards in your text Elihu, but this thread has a real problem staying on topic, so i wont, here. Feel free to start a thread asking those same questions; if u should do so, can i suggest a new line for each question, and maybe a little background/links/info on what you think yourself, and why.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Elihu » Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:20 pm

I'd love to discuss the numerous misapprehensions and canards in your text Elihu, but this thread has a real problem staying on topic, so i wont, here.

failure to stay on topic is not surprising: "Warming: how Baaad is it? it's bad my friend" here's another record high. here's another record low. another hurricane, another blizzard, another drought and another flood. but it's all "warming". okay fine, i will abandon this thread of anecdotes which you apparently intend to continue in order to win acceptance of your cause. i get your point. personally i don't need any more appeals to "the sky is falling!" maybe it is, i don't know.
Feel free to start a thread asking those same questions; if u should do so, can i suggest a new line for each question, and maybe a little background/links/info on what you think yourself, and why.

i think the issue is political, not scientific. and yours is political too because you have already settled on an interpretation of the science. so what i would like to see is a roll-out of your program. since you claim to base it on science, i would assume that each of your prescriptions will effectively address a part of the scientific equation? and as a climatologist, are you also therefore a qualified social scientist since now you will be performing experiments of which the behavior of millions of people will be basic inputs? from a practical standpoint, i begin to see the necessity of "conversion of belief" instead of direct legislative injunction. does the issue of quality control (the compliance level) concern you at all since it bears directly on the outcome of the experiment?

this is an ambitious undertaking. once you sell the idea you've got alot of work to do my friend. i just think it would be prudent for you to go ahead and get started on all that. and since everything is above board i would assume you would have no problem publicizing the details? in addition to all the other burdens, you have the integrity of the scientific method to think about.

so yeah, archive this and time permitting we'll move from a sales-pitch thread to a program delivery and implementation thread. that is going to be interesting. looking forward to it....
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby brainpanhandler » Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:56 pm

Why won't you start a new thread?
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Elihu » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:17 pm

Feel free to start a thread asking those same questions; if u should do so, can i suggest a new line for each question, and maybe a little background/links/info on what you think yourself, and why.
some granted premises might deal a coup-de-grace to the argumentum ad nauseum on this thread. here: Humans emit co2. Co2 traps heat. Trapped heat is causing sudden dramatic climate change. Sudden dramatic climate change will cause a mass death event. Said event is eminent. humans must expeditiously reduce their co2 emmissions.

there you go. i'll grant you every scientific claim you care to make. how you gonna do it? just sketch us some broad strokes. or haven't you thought in great detail about it?

Why won't you start a new thread?
you really think that's necessary? you make it sound as if the high priest is ill prepared to lead the converted.

i mean surely the plans of the proponents must be eminently reasonable and intimately coincide with the requirements of the scientific argument they have so carefully elucidated? right? is that asking too much? or is it insubordinate?
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby brainpanhandler » Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:51 pm

Elihu wrote:
I wrote:Why won't you start a new thread?
you really think that's necessary?


Necessary? Maybe not in my opinion, but apparently Wintler would prefer you start another thread and that seems like a good idea to me and I would think it would to you as well since you seem to want to discuss proposed solutions specifically as opposed to discussing the evidence that agw is real at all or not. They are substantially different subjects. Since you didn't answer my question (not a good start) and I am of the opinion it is strange you don't see on the face of it the utility and value of creating a seperate thread to discuss proposed solutions I'll ask my question again: Why won't you start a new thread?

you make it sound as if the high priest is ill prepared to lead the converted.


Somehow I suspect you're not really "converted" and I might change some of what you think you are ceding to:

Humans emit co2. Along with a lot of other GHGs, though Co2 is the main culprit. check

Co2 traps heat. GHGs trap heat. Check

Trapped heat is causing sudden dramatic climate change. Rising global temperatures are causing climate change faster than the biosphere or possibly us are able to adapt to. Check

Sudden dramatic climate change will cause a mass death event.

Most likely, Check.

Said event is eminent. Probably within the next 50 to 100 years without any change in emissions of anthropogenic GHGs there will be catastrophic effects on the biosphere. Check.

humans must expeditiously reduce their co2 emmissions.Humans are way late in reducing their GHG emissions and must immediately take drastic steps to radically reduce them if there is any hope of staving off the worst effects of global warming. And Check.

there you go. i'll grant you every scientific claim you care to make.


Ah, the sweet sound of the "converted".

You see, you'll have to forgive us but usually we are stuck just trying to get denialists to agree that AGW is real, let alone what to do about it. Priests have such an easier time of it. When was the last time a priest had to prove anything in the sacred texts with scientific rigor?

i mean surely the plans of the proponents must be eminently reasonable and intimately coincide with the requirements of the scientific argument they have so carefully elucidated?


Obviously not all of the plans of the proponents are eminently reasonable. The "proponents" (I guess you mean the agw faithful) have all sorts of agendas. There's money to be made on many of the "solutions" and there will be graft and corruption and distortions and lies and waste of taxpayers money, etc that goes along with any "solutions" devised and implemented by the current system we have, ie... capitalists owning the political levers. Even the best plans of action can be hijacked and corrupted.

There are no reasonable plans that reduce human produced GHGs fast enough that do not entail a radical restructuring of civilization, imo. Our economic systems and our political systems have to change, drastically. And our consumption habits in first world and developing countries have to change, drastically.

imo the trillions of dollars worth of recoverable hydrocarbons still in the earth will not be left there. We will dig it/pump it out and burn it. And so really it doesn't matter how many wind turbines we build or how many solar panels we make or whether we remove the subsidies to the fossil fuel industry and shift them to alternative energy technologies. None of that matters in terms of preventing the worst effects of human induced accelerated global warming without keeping those trillions of hydrocarbons where they are. Unless you want to start considering geoengineering. But that's a differernt question.

So if you are asking me how to make that happen (keep it in the ground), I don't have an answer. But just because I don't see a way to stop it doesn't mean I can't point it out and protest it. But that's me. Others are more optimistic I suppose. You might get a better answer from them.

right? is that asking too much? or is it insubordinate?


Insubordination? I assume you are adressing myself and wintler. As you can see neither of us are mods and even if we were I think you have been here long enough to realize that there is very little that is outside the bounds of allowable speech here and certainly asking for proposed solutions to AGW is well within those bounds. Since I assume you know this I get the impression that you are suggesting either I or wintler are bossy and overbearing and believe we are entitled to order others around as to what they can or cannot discuss. I take umbrage at that insinuation. Please refrain in the future.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby wintler2 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:08 pm

Elihu, thanks for the character assassination and endless putting words in my mouth, but i'm uninclined to play your fool. I'm sure if you are sincerely interested in efforts to slow anthropogenic global warming then you'll gather your strength into a mighty effort and start a thread on it.

personally i don't need any more appeals to "the sky is falling!" maybe it is, i don't know.


That mode of denial is exactly why i want to keep this thread on topic.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Elihu » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:08 pm

Obviously not all of the plans of the proponents are eminently reasonable. The "proponents" (I guess you mean the agw faithful) have all sorts of agendas. There's money to be made on many of the "solutions" and there will be graft and corruption and distortions and lies and waste of taxpayers money, etc that goes along with any "solutions" devised and implemented by the current system we have, ie... capitalists owning the political levers. Even the best plans of action can be hijacked and corrupted.

There are no reasonable plans that reduce human produced GHGs fast enough that do not entail a radical restructuring of civilization, imo.
so you have no plan. other than something good for goodness' sake even as it further enriches the cronies, does the opposite to the peeps and fails to affect the climate. all sunshine that future. if you want a revolution just say so. no shame in that.

Insubordination? I assume you are adressing myself and wintler. A..... I get the impression that you are suggesting either I or wintler are bossy and overbearing and believe we are entitled to order others around as to what they can or cannot discuss. I take umbrage at that insinuation. Please refrain in the future.
oh you take umbrage? the two of you are occupying a reality so informed by science that you feel justified in referring to other people as the equivalent of "flat earthers" and yet you can't even sketch in elementary terms what it would take to solve this problem. go ahead, free-form it. pretend for a moment that the capitalist cronies can't stand in your way. i think you should be able to do that or your scientific enlightenment might be called into question. applying the denier label makes me wonder. inquisitions do that not science.

I'm sure if you are sincerely interested in efforts to slow anthropogenic global warming then you'll gather your strength into a mighty effort and start a thread on it.
point taken. i will certainly need your input.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Elihu » Thu Jan 31, 2013 6:25 pm

since you seem to want to discuss proposed solutions specifically as opposed to discussing the evidence that agw is real at all or not. They are substantially different subjects.


is that so? how is that possible? this has got to be the entire crux of the matter. you biotans remain over on the arguing and conversion side while us deniers are wondering what it is you've got up your sleeve lol! if your science can't be unified with practical application then you are either boobs or con men. imho. cheers...
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby DrEvil » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:00 pm

It's not a matter of fixing it. It's too late for that. It's a matter of containing the damage to something we (hopefully) can handle.
If you want ideas for how, I'm sure google can help you, but here's a few:

1. Stop releasing CO2 and other crap into our atmosphere.
2. Look into carbon capture technologies.
3. Look into geo-engineering (In case things really go bat-shit).
4. Increased funding and research for alternative power sources. Wind, water, sun, kinetic, fusion, deep burn fission (If nothing else it can be used to dispose of nuclear waste), LENR, Thorium reactors, better batteries, better electric cars that drive themselves, space based mirrors.
5. Tax oil through the roof. Pay people to exchange their gas-guzzler for an electric car.
6. Dismantle the capitalist system and move towards a sustainable, non-growth scenario (yes - I'm talking about Agenda21. OMG!!).
7. Kill all cows and replace them with lab-grown meat (Or - gasp! - vegetables).
8. Plant trees. Stop deforestation.
9. Change people's perceptions. Driving a gasoline powered car should be frowned upon and reserved for enthusiasts on closed tracks, or situations where a dispensation is in order (kinda like guns really).

That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure I could find more. Feel free to add to it.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby wintler2 » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:15 pm

Elihu wrote:.. yet you can't even sketch in elementary terms what it would take to solve this problem. ..


Yet BPH already provided a policy list in response to your hostile invitation, on this very page, and you're too busy vomiting up your received wisdom to even acknowledge it.

If you manage to get over your emotional attachment to culture war cliches and ask nicely, on another thread, i'd gladly discuss it with you. Until then..

Get lost, troll.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby brainpanhandler » Thu Jan 31, 2013 7:53 pm

elihu wrote:if you want a revolution just say so


I thought I more or less did. I don't see the point of sketching out rough plans to fix the climate when you could easily research them yourself and no doubt have, I would presume. Besides which as I said nothing less than a massive paradigm shift has to take place in an historically unprecendented span of time. And even then it just doesn't matter if the trillions in fossil fuels in the ground don't stay there. And I don't believe they will.

I'm sorry I can't be cheerier or play your game anymore. If you start a new thread maybe I'll have something to say there. The problems are systemic. The solutions can't be sketched out on a cocktail napkin with a jumbo crayon.
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Elihu » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:27 pm

Yet BPH already provided a policy list in response to your hostile invitation, on this very page, and you're too busy vomiting up your received wisdom to even acknowledge it.


hostile? policy list? dude you're a scientist. i'm asking you to break it down in btu's, tonnage, time spans and temp readings. asking quantitative questions is received wisdom?

man, the previous three posts really hit home with the difference in perspective we share. you spare no jot or tittle in quantitative data supporting your point that humanity is at a self induced precipice. but data departs at that point. it's no longer relevant. it's a belief conversion at that point. it's as if, stepping through that door, the old priorities of human society are sundered by the pathos of the existential question before us. those whose third eye has yet to open on these matters are obstacles and objects of pity. especially when, out of stultified prejudice and ignorance, they inquire about data or a plan or who's going to pay for it. such pithy details. all actions by the converted are to and for the divine. a blank check if you will from here on out. faith. trust.

i'm taking it all in. just stop beating me with the science club please, if you ever hope to win a convert. i'm trying to decide if you're the Apostle Paul or shall we say, someone less scrupulous...
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby DrEvil » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:45 pm

Elihu wrote:i'm taking it all in. just stop beating me with the science club please, if you ever hope to win a convert.


Are you seriously saying that to convert you to our cause, we need to stop using facts and evidence to support our arguments?

Are you for real?
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Re: How Bad Is Global Warming?

Postby Elihu » Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:57 pm

Are you seriously saying that to convert you to our cause, we need to stop using facts and evidence to support our arguments?

Are you for real?


no, i am asking you to discontinue the scientific front-end. i've heard all that before. it's when i decided to inquire about the scientific back-end and found out that it's all woo back there. i'm absorbing the religious implications. i feel like a 33rd degree-er about to graduate.
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