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Economists May Be Underestimating How Fast the Robots Are Coming
Economists may be underestimating the impact on labor markets of increasing automation and the rise of artificial intelligence, according to a post published on the Bank of England’s staff blog on Wednesday.
“The potential for simultaneous and rapid disruption, coupled with the breadth of human functions that AI might replicate, may have profound implications for labor markets,” BOE regional agents Mauricio Armellini and Tim Pike wrote in the Bank Underground post. “Economists should seriously consider the possibility that millions of people may be at risk of unemployment, should these technologies be widely adopted.”
Robots and intelligent machines threaten to replace workers in industries from finance to retail to haulage, with BOE Chief Economist Andrew Haldane estimating in 2015 that 15 million British jobs and 80 million in the U.S. could be lost to automation. Past periods of technological upheaval, such as the industrial revolution, may not be a useful guide as the pace of change was slower, giving society longer to mitigate the potential consequences of increasing job displacement and inequality, according to Armellini and Pike.
“Economists looking at previous industrial revolutions observe that none of these risks have transpired,” they wrote. “However, this possibly underestimates the very different nature of the technological advances currently in progress, in terms of their much broader industrial and occupational applications and their speed of diffusion.”
“It would be a mistake, therefore, to dismiss the risks associated with these new technologies too lightly,” they said.
dada » Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:51 pm wrote:Perhaps I have an idiosyncratic view of the the staus-quo, keeping-up-with-the-Jonses society that surrounds me? It seems to me that the education system, the class system, the consumer-entertainment system, the carrot-chasing dream system, are already designed to enslave, from cradle to grave. People have learned to love their slavery, will defend it vehemently, even call it freedom. From wage-slave to salaryman or woman, from petty thief to hedge fund manager. Journalist, tenured professor. Tech guru, President.
We're looking at it differently. Two types of slavery. Forced servitude, and slavery to power. If you buy into the narrative of power, you become enslaved. It's really that simple.
I don't buy into it. I work many hours a week at low-paying jobs. I live and function on the pyramid. Does that make me a slave to it? Of course not. I'm not a broken ego in a bag of skin, all alone in a big indifferent machiniverse. That's just part of the narrative of power. I've got my own narrative.
minime » Thu Mar 02, 2017 9:39 pm wrote:
What kind of soup in your narrative?
Luther Blissett wrote:It certainly doesn't have to be that way. It can be people-powered, especially since we can't expect the ruling class to just hand it over. I expect it to be much more like weekends, the 8-hour workday, the end of child labor, or workplace safety — only won through hard-fought organization and activism. History bears this out much more than the dystopian version.
Not to say we don't have to be careful - existing power structures, and probably capitalism itself, both need to be beaten in parallel to the current oppressive system of income inequality (which is what universal basic income is about). Have a little more imagination.
Besides, we can't stop automation. We can't stop even nonroutine cognitive work from being automated. What is your answer to it?
dada wrote: the education system, the class system, the consumer-entertainment system, the carrot-chasing dream system, are already designed to enslave, from cradle to grave. People have learned to love their slavery, will defend it vehemently, even call it freedom.
Elvis wrote:
It's up to "us" and nobody else.
minime » Thu Mar 02, 2017 11:08 pm wrote:You would have others eat pumpkin soup because chicken soup makes you sick?
Iamwhomiam » Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:52 pm wrote:Oh, but you have indeed bought into it, dada, though you might not feel you have. The system has you just where it wants to keep you.
dada » Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:12 pm wrote:Iamwhomiam » Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:52 pm wrote:Oh, but you have indeed bought into it, dada, though you might not feel you have. The system has you just where it wants to keep you.
Perhaps, perhaps.
There's power, and then there's power. The system is just a rigormortized social corpse permeating everything. My power grows with each passing day. Deep beneath the shallow surface. Surrounding it from outside. Like a shadow over everything.
Here on the shallow surface, we're typing to each other. I try to say what can't be said. Trace around it. Implicate. I barely pay attention, it's automatic. I'm intentionally directing my attention on my breathing. Giving kitty some pets and scratches.
I don't fight what I know I am. Grandfather Time's grandfather. Stars flicker on and off like fireflies. Goddesses and Orishas are born with the planet, gone in less than ten billion years. The blink of an eye. Yet am I alone? Nope. I am, as they say, another yourself.
The system? Baby-games.
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