It will be nice once my life is back to normal, I'm going spend a few evenings sipping coffee in the kitchen and just catching up. Some jumbled notes in the meantime:
Per our convo about this peaking during the summer, Ralph "Blackface" Northam has taken the unusual step of communicating honestly and directly with his citizens instead of doing an endless rollout of false hope. Perhaps that is because he knows his demographic is, by nature, considerably better informed than the usual low-information voters? Note that Maryland did the same...
Virginia governor issues stay-at-home order
Virginia residents will live under a stay-at-home order until mid-June as the region around Washington DC moved towards a lockdown on Monday.
Ralph Northam, the Democratic governor of Virginia, ordered the state's residents to stay at home "except in extremely limited circumstances" until June 10. Other states have generally issued orders that are scheduled to end in April.
The order on Monday followed a similar announcement by Larry Hogan, the Republican governor of Maryland. Both states border Washington DC and are home to many US federal workers who live in the Virginia and Maryland suburbs that surround the capital.
Next up, an issue that's been occupying my cranium when I need to be sleeping is
price wars & economic competition. The need for emergency staff will be met according to
ability to pay, so red zones full of Wall Street bankers and SV programmers will fare considerably better than, say, New Orleans could ever hope to. We haven't seen a lot of this get reported on in public yet -- but we will see this discussed much more overtly next week, most likely thanks to paid activist venues like Nation Institute or ProPublica.
Race for ventilators pushing up prices, says New York governor
US states, the federal government and private hospitals are all competing against one another to buy scarce medical supplies from China and driving up prices, according to Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York.
"We're creating a situation where you literally have hundreds of entities looking to buy the same exact materials, basically from the same place, which is China, ironically enough," Mr Cuomo said on Monday. "And we're fighting among ourselves."
Early attempts to quantify public sentiment indicate
strong panic fundamentals, so don't expect that VIX to calm down anytime soon. People are indeed clamoring for more action, and that sentiment will turn to anger and despair as they come to appreciate how little their governments can really do to protect them. As I've said for far too long in this thread, the social contract is on fire and the long-term consequences here are ... well, fascinating. I don't have high hopes for the human species standing up and shedding their chains, but things will be turbulent, everywhere, for the rest of the decade.
Exclusive: People across globe want further government action
People across the world want further intervention from their governments to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a survey of 32,631 in 45 countries.
Some 43 per cent thought their government was doing too little in response to the crisis.
By contrast only 12 per cent thought there had been too much state intervention in their country, according to the survey by Dalia Research.
Countries where citizens thought the state was not sufficiently interventionist included Thailand (79 per cent), Chile (76 per cent), Spain (66 per cent), France (64 per cent) and Japan (64 per cent).
Only a small minority of people in any country thought their country was doing too much, although a handful of countries were above average in that respect. Countries where a relatively high proportion of people thought governments were doing too much included Saudi Arabia (34 per cent), Malaysia (26 per cent), Egypt (25 per cent) and the US (19 per cent).
As a cynical side note, this is why both progressives and libertarians are so stymied in democracies, whether direct, representative or kayfabe:
nobody wants what you're selling. People, by and large, don't want to think about governance, they just want to be reassured they're safe. They're about to be taught, firsthand, that they're not. A golden moment for political opportunists of all stripes.
Speaking of the education to come: in my immediate, IRL social circle, people are still very much reeling from Trump's Press Conference of Death, which finally put some numbers to the deluge.
Donald Trump told Americans to be prepared for a "very painful, very very painful two weeks" as doctors on the White House's coronavirus task force unveiled models that showed fatalities in the US could reach 240,000 even in the best-case scenario.
Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, medical experts who have led the task force, said that even with "full mitigation", the US was likely to see 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, with fatalities reaching an apex in about two weeks and then extending well into June.
Both Dr Fauci and Dr Birx said they hoped that the total would be lower, noting that the current projections are based on data gathered from the hardest-hit states like New York and New Jersey as well as the course the disease ran in Italy.
Perhaps most important, Fauci conceded during the course of that press conference that taking sweeping steps earlier could have reduced those projected numbers. His only other choice was to tell an obvious lie, but there's been so much of that lately I cannot help but feel the tiny man deserves some big credit for that one.
The other two big overall trends:
1) Everyone's "country XYZ did it right" and "why isn't country XYZ being affected?" narratives fell apart this week and will continue to crumble for the rest of the month. Like I've already said far too often here, "news" is for discrete events, not ongoing complex phenomena. So the notion that a global coronavirus pandemic is unfolding at different paces in different places, on timelines that are weeks and often even months apart, well, that just doesn't compute in the world of daily deadlines and NARRATIVES NOW, Inc. Remember when Canada was a model of sensible response? When Mexico was fine and the US was the
real "shithole country," ha ha ha? Remember when Sweden and Germany were bafflingly unaffected? Remember two days ago, when California's smart, savvy tech culture was keeping their numbers down?
All of that bullshit was bullshit. The problem we're facing is implacable and far more patient than we are.
2) There is going to be an international scramble for attention, sympathy, resources and money in the weeks to come. It will fall upon increasingly deaf ears. Countries with poor infrastructure and a low capacity to source their own food are simply fucked. Nobody is going to be in a position to bail them out -- in a meaningful sense, at scale. There will always be symbolic gestures for the sake of PR, but crates of stale, leftover PPE will not be enough for any of these developing economies to mitigate what's coming.
The scale of what is happening in NYC is horrifying, especially because it is full of laid off journalists and citizen reporters will phone cameras. But at least they've got money and hospitals and a robust first responder system. So, pray for Lagos, especially since that's about all you can really do for them.