Top Climate Scientist: Copenhagen Must Fail, Slams CapnTrade

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Gouda
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Post by Gouda »

June 2008:

Living on the Ice Shelf - Humanity's Meltdown
By Mike Davis

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/174949/ ... next_epoch

1. Farewell to the Holocene

Our world, our old world that we have inhabited for the last 12,000 years, has ended, even if no newspaper in North America or Europe has yet printed its scientific obituary.

This new age, they explain, is defined both by the heating trend (whose closest analogue may be the catastrophe known as the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum, 56 million years ago) and by the radical instability expected of future environments. In somber prose, they warn that "the combination of extinctions, global species migrations and the widespread replacement of natural vegetation with agricultural monocultures is producing a distinctive contemporary biostratigraphic signal. These effects are permanent, as future evolution will take place from surviving (and frequently anthropogenically relocated) stocks." Evolution itself, in other words, has been forced into a new trajectory.

(…)

Even while higher energy prices are pushing SUVs towards extinction and attracting more venture capital to renewable energy, they are also opening the Pandora's box of the crudest of crude oil production from Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan heavy oil. As one British scientist has warned, the very last thing we should wish for (under the false slogan of "energy independence") is new frontiers in hydrocarbon production that advance "humankind's ability to accelerate global warming" and slow the urgent transition to "non-carbon or closed-carbon energy cycles."

(…)

Moreover there are disturbing signs that energy companies and utilities are reneging on their public commitments to the development of carbon-capture and alternative energy technologies. The Bush administration's "marquee demonstration project," FutureGen, was scrapped this year after the coal industry refused to pay its share of the public-private "partnership"; similarly, most U.S. private-sector carbon-sequestration initiatives have recently been cancelled. In the United Kingdom, meanwhile, Shell has just pulled out of the world's largest wind-energy project, the London Array. Despite heroic levels of advertising, energy corporations, like pharmaceutical companies, prefer to overgraze the commons, while letting taxes, not profits, pay for whatever urgent, long-overdue research is actually undertaken.

On the other hand, the spoils from high energy prices continue to gush into real estate, skyscrapers, and financial assets. Whether or not we are actually at the summit of Hubbert's Peak -- that peak oil moment -- whether or not the oil-price bubble finally bursts, what we are probably witnessing is the largest transfer of wealth in modern history.

(…)

Dubai, which has little oil income of its own, has become the regional financial hub for this vast pool of wealth, with ambitions to eventually compete with Wall Street and the City of London. During the first oil shock in the 1970s, much of OPEC's surplus was recycled through military purchases in the United States and Europe, or parked in foreign banks to become the "subprime" loans that eventually devastated Latin America. In the wake of the attacks of 9/11, the Gulf states became far more cautious about entrusting their wealth to countries, like the United States, governed by religious fanatics. This time around, they are using "sovereign wealth funds" to achieve a more active ownership in foreign financial institutions, while investing fabulous amounts of oil revenue to transform Arabia's sands into hyperbolic cities, shopping paradises, and private islands for British rock stars and Russian gangsters.

Two years ago, when oil prices were less than half of the current level, The Financial Times estimated that planned new construction in Saudi Arabia and the emirates already exceeded $1 trillion dollars. Today, it may be closer to $1.5 trillion, considerably more than the total value of world trade in agricultural products. Most of the Gulf city-states are building hallucinatory skylines -- and, among them, Dubai is the unquestionable superstar. In a little more than a decade, it has erected 500 skyscrapers, and currently leases one-quarter of all the high-rise cranes in the world.

This super-charged Gulf boom, which celebrity architect Rem Koolhaas claims is "reconfiguring the world," has led Dubai developers to proclaim the advent of a "supreme lifestyle" represented by seven-star hotels, private islands, and J-class yachts. Not surprisingly, then, the United Arab Emirates and its neighbors have the biggest per capita ecological footprints on the planet. Meanwhile, the rightful owners of Arab oil wealth, the masses crammed into the angry tenements of Baghdad, Cairo, Amman, and Khartoum, have little more to show for it than a trickle-down of oil-field jobs and Saudi-subsidized madrassas. While guests enjoy the $5,000 per night rooms in Burj Al-Arab, Dubai's celebrated sail-shaped hotel, working-class Cairenes riot in the streets over the unaffordable price of bread.

4. Can Markets Enfranchise the Poor?

Emissions optimists, of course, will smile at all the gloom-and-doom and evoke the coming miracle of carbon trading. What they discount is the real possibility that a sprawling carbon-offset market may emerge, just as predicted, yet produce only minimal improvement in the global carbon balance sheet, as long as there is no mechanism for enforcing real net reductions in fossil fuel use.

In popular discussions of emissions-rights trading systems, it is common to mistake the smokestacks for the trees. For example, the wealthy oil enclave of Abu Dhabi (like Dubai, a partner in the United Arab Emirates) brags that it has planted more than 130 million trees -- each of which does its duty in absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, this artificial forest in the desert also consumes huge quantities of irrigation water produced, or recycled, from expensive desalination plants. The trees may allow Sheik Ahmed bin Zayed to wear a halo at international meetings, but the rude fact is that they are an energy-intensive beauty strip, like most of so-called green capitalism.
And, while we're at it, let's just ask: What if the buying and selling of carbon credits and pollution offsets fails to turn down the thermostat? What exactly will motivate governments and global industries then to join hands in a crusade to reduce emissions through regulation and taxation?

Kyoto-type climate diplomacy assumes that all the major actors, once they have accepted the science in the IPCC reports, will recognize an overriding common interest in gaining control over the runaway greenhouse effect. But global warming is not War of the Worlds, where invading Martians are dedicated to annihilating all of humanity without distinction. Climate change, instead, will initially produce dramatically unequal impacts across regions and social classes. It will reinforce, not diminish, geopolitical inequality and conflict.

As the United Nations Development Program emphasized in its report last year, global warming is above all a threat to the poor and the unborn, the "two constituencies with little or no political voice." Coordinated global action on their behalf thus presupposes either their revolutionary empowerment (a scenario not considered by the IPCC) or the transmutation of the self-interest of rich countries and classes into an enlightened "solidarity" without precedent in history. From a rational-actor perspective, the latter outcome only seems realistic if it can be shown that privileged groups possess no preferential "exit" option, that internationalist public opinion drives policymaking in key countries, and that greenhouse gas mitigation could be achieved without major sacrifices in upscale Northern Hemispheric standards of living -- none of which seems highly likely.

And what if growing environmental and social turbulence, instead of galvanizing heroic innovation and international cooperation, simply drive elite publics into even more frenzied attempts to wall themselves off from the rest of humanity? Global mitigation, in this unexplored but not improbable scenario, would be tacitly abandoned (as, to some extent, it already has been) in favor of accelerated investment in selective adaptation for Earth's first-class passengers. We're talking here of the prospect of creating green and gated oases of permanent affluence on an otherwise stricken planet.

5. The North's Ecological Debt

The real question is this: Will rich counties ever mobilize the political will and economic resources to actually achieve IPCC targets or, for that matter, to help poorer countries adapt to the inevitable, already "committed" quotient of warming now working its way toward us through the slow circulation of the world ocean?

To be more vivid: Will the electorates of the wealthy nations shed their current bigotry and walled borders to admit refugees from predicted epicenters of drought and desertification like the Maghreb, Mexico, Ethiopia, and Pakistan? Will Americans, the most miserly people when measured by per capita foreign aid, be willing to tax themselves to help relocate the millions likely to be flooded out of densely settled, mega-delta regions like Bangladesh?

Market-oriented optimists, once again, will point to carbon offset programs like the Clean Development Mechanism which, they claim, will allow green capital to flow to the Third World. Most of the Third World, however, probably prefers for the First World to acknowledge the environmental mess it has created and take responsibility for cleaning it up. They rightly rail against the notion that the greatest burden of adjustment to the Anthropocene epoch should fall on those who have contributed least to carbon emissions and drawn the slightest benefits from 200 years of industrialization.

(…)

In light of such studies, the current ruthless competition between energy and food markets, amplified by international speculation in commodities and agricultural land, is only a modest portent of the chaos that could soon grow exponentially from the convergence of resource depletion, intractable inequality, and climate change.

The real danger is that human solidarity itself, like a West Antarctic ice shelf, will suddenly fracture and shatter into a thousand shards.
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Post by Jeff »

Copenhagen climate summit in disarray after 'Danish text' leak

Developing countries react furiously to leaked draft agreement that would hand more power to rich nations, sideline the UN's negotiating role and abandon the Kyoto protocol


John Vidal in Copenhagen
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 December 2009 14.09 GMT

The UN Copenhagen climate talks are in disarray today after developing countries reacted furiously to leaked documents that show world leaders will next week be asked to sign an agreement that hands more power to rich countries and sidelines the UN's role in all future climate change negotiations.

The document is also being interpreted by developing countries as setting unequal limits on per capita carbon emissions for developed and developing countries in 2050; meaning that people in rich countries would be permitted to emit nearly twice as much under the proposals.

The so-called Danish text, a secret draft agreement worked on by a group of individuals known as "the circle of commitment" – but understood to include the UK, US and Denmark – has only been shown to a handful of countries since it was finalised this week.

The agreement, leaked to the Guardian, is a departure from the Kyoto protocol's principle that rich nations, which have emitted the bulk of the CO2, should take on firm and binding commitments to reduce greenhouse gases, while poorer nations were not compelled to act. The draft hands effective control of climate change finance to the World Bank; would abandon the Kyoto protocol – the only legally binding treaty that the world has on emissions reductions; and would make any money to help poor countries adapt to climate change dependent on them taking a range of actions.

The document was described last night by one senior diplomat as "a very dangerous document for developing countries. It is a fundamental reworking of the UN balance of obligations. It is to be superimposed without discussion on the talks".

A confidential analysis of the text by developing countries also seen by the Guardian shows deep unease over details of the text. In particular, it is understood to:

• Force developing countries to agree to specific emission cuts and measures that were not part of the original UN agreement;

• Divide poor countries further by creating a new category of developing countries called "the most vulnerable";

• Weaken the UN's role in handling climate finance;

• Not allow poor countries to emit more than 1.44 tonnes of carbon per person by 2050, while allowing rich countries to emit 2.67 tonnes.

Developing countries that have seen the text are understood to be furious that it is being promoted by rich countries without their knowledge and without discussion in the negotiations.

"It is being done in secret. Clearly the intention is to get [Barack] Obama and the leaders of other rich countries to muscle it through when they arrive next week. It effectively is the end of the UN process," said one diplomat, who asked to remain nameless.

Antonio Hill, climate policy adviser for Oxfam International, said: "This is only a draft but it highlights the risk that when the big countries come together, the small ones get hurting. On every count the emission cuts need to be scaled up. It allows too many loopholes and does not suggest anything like the 40% cuts that science is saying is needed."

Hill continued: "It proposes a green fund to be run by a board but the big risk is that it will run by the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility [a partnership of 10 agencies including the World Bank and the UN Environment Programme] and not the UN. That would be a step backwards, and it tries to put constraints on developing countries when none were negotiated in earlier UN climate talks."

The text was intended by Denmark and rich countries to be a working framework, which would be adapted by countries over the next week. It is particularly inflammatory because it sidelines the UN negotiating process and suggests that rich countries are desperate for world leaders to have a text to work from when they arrive next week.

Few numbers or figures are included in the text because these would be filled in later by world leaders. However, it seeks to hold temperature rises to 2C and mentions the sum of $10bn a year to help poor countries adapt to climate change from 2012-15.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... anish-text
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Post by Sounder »

Thanks Gouda for pointing that out.


http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/12/ ... swaps.html
Woman Who Invented Credit Default Swaps is One of the Key Architects of Carbon Derivatives, Which Would Be at the Very CENTER of Cap and Trade

It seems that the best way to distract from past scams is to push new scams. And the good folk remain one step behind because they don’t understand that the number one rule of the con is getting your confidence. You give the confidence to securitize a dream and the con-man takes the money. Then he offloads the dream, at a discount, to some Mobbed up bank that fails and claims more taxpayer money, because, well who wants to stop adding insult to injury when there is so much money to be made out of it?

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/12/ ... trade.html

It will be great when content becomes more important than ideology. So we might conjure up something better than this dull fog of partisan bantering.
All these things will continue as long as coercion remains a central element of our mentality.
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Post by 8bitagent »

@Jeff's telegraph news posting:

Isn't that the basis for the Alex Jones belief that "global warming is a scam to bring in global government and rule by the elite?" Or is it more than climate change is real, but once again the elite have found a way to use it for their own gain?
tazmic wrote:"The UN Copenhagen climate talks are in disarray today after developing countries reacted furiously to leaked documents that show world leaders will next week be asked to sign an agreement that hands more power to rich countries and sidelines the UN's role in all future climate change negotiations."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... anish-text

"The draft hands effective control of climate change finance to the World Bank; would abandon the Kyoto protocol – the only legally binding treaty that the world has on emissions reductions; and would make any money to help poor countries adapt to climate change dependent on them taking a range of actions."

That's quite a coup.
Is this true? That this is the ultimate aim of Copenhagen? If so, the
level of manipulation and propaganda from all sides is more complex than imagined.
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Post by Jeff »

Naomi Klein kick-starts the activism at Copenhagen with call for disobedience

The Copenhagen deal may turn into the worst kind of disaster capitalism, Naomi Klein said last night. In her speech to Klimaforum09, the "people's summit" she told the thousand or so campaigners and activists that this was a chance to carry on building the new convergence, the movement of movements that began "all those years ago in Seattle, fighting against the privatisation of life itself". Here was an opportunity to "continue the conversation that was so rudely interrupted by 9/11".

"Down the road at the Bella Centre [where delegates are meeting] there is the worst case of disaster capitalism that we have ever witnessed. We know that what is being proposed in the Bella Centre doesn't even come close to the deal that is needed. We know the paltry emissions cuts that Obama has proposed; they're insulting. We're the ones who created this crisis... on the basic historical principle of polluters pays, we should pay."

...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/b ... n-activism
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Post by 8bitagent »

Jeff wrote:Naomi Klein kick-starts the activism at Copenhagen with call for disobedience

The Copenhagen deal may turn into the worst kind of disaster capitalism, Naomi Klein said last night. In her speech to Klimaforum09, the "people's summit" she told the thousand or so campaigners and activists that this was a chance to carry on building the new convergence, the movement of movements that began "all those years ago in Seattle, fighting against the privatisation of life itself". Here was an opportunity to "continue the conversation that was so rudely interrupted by 9/11".

"Down the road at the Bella Centre [where delegates are meeting] there is the worst case of disaster capitalism that we have ever witnessed. We know that what is being proposed in the Bella Centre doesn't even come close to the deal that is needed. We know the paltry emissions cuts that Obama has proposed; they're insulting. We're the ones who created this crisis... on the basic historical principle of polluters pays, we should pay."

...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/b ... n-activism
Strange to see an alliance of sorts between the left wing anti government activist types(Naomi Klein), the right wing anti government activists(Alex Jones) and then the Fox News/Beck/Rush/climate deniers.
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Post by Jeff »

8bitagent wrote: Strange to see an alliance of sorts between the left wing anti government activist types(Naomi Klein), the right wing anti government activists(Alex Jones) and then the Fox News/Beck/Rush/climate deniers.
But it's only the vaguest impression of an alliance - the difference between saying the diagnosis is a sham and the remedy is a fraud - though that's never stopped Jones from misrepresenting wisdom in support of his foolishness.

Also, I wouldn't call Klein anti-government. She's anti-capitalist, and governments can, on rare occasion and in far away places, be very helpful to that end.
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Post by 23 »

Jeff wrote:
8bitagent wrote: Strange to see an alliance of sorts between the left wing anti government activist types(Naomi Klein), the right wing anti government activists(Alex Jones) and then the Fox News/Beck/Rush/climate deniers.
But it's only the vaguest impression of an alliance - the difference between saying the diagnosis is a sham and the remedy is a fraud - though that's never stopped Jones from misrepresenting wisdom in support of his foolishness.

Also, I wouldn't call Klein anti-government. She's anti-capitalist, and governments can, on rare occasion and in far away places, be very helpful to that end.
I don't agree.

I DO see an alliance.

An alliance against coercive authoritarianism.

Otherwise referred to as fascism in some circles.

Or the incestuous relationship between an overly intrusive centralized government...

and corporations.

I certainly do see a growing alliance against coercive authoritarianism.

And I've been waiting for one to form for years.
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Post by American Dream »

I honestly can't imagine Naomi Klein directly teaming up with either Alex Jones or Glen Beck.

In a million years...
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Post by lightningBugout »

23 wrote:
Jeff wrote:
8bitagent wrote: Strange to see an alliance of sorts between the left wing anti government activist types(Naomi Klein), the right wing anti government activists(Alex Jones) and then the Fox News/Beck/Rush/climate deniers.
But it's only the vaguest impression of an alliance - the difference between saying the diagnosis is a sham and the remedy is a fraud - though that's never stopped Jones from misrepresenting wisdom in support of his foolishness.

Also, I wouldn't call Klein anti-government. She's anti-capitalist, and governments can, on rare occasion and in far away places, be very helpful to that end.
I don't agree.

I DO see an alliance.

An alliance against coercive authoritarianism.

Otherwise referred to as fascism in some circles.

Or the incestuous relationship between an overly intrusive centralized government...

and corporations.

I certainly do see a growing alliance against coercive authoritarianism.

And I've been waiting for one to form for years.
Alex Jones is not part of any meaningful alliance against capitalism, fascism or authoritarianism. He is simply his own little media conglomerate. It's like shark week everyday, only the theme is "them" and what "they" are doing now. He's leading an army of fools who selectively filter the news, essentializing every single story down its real meaning - that "they" are just about to impose martial law and put us in FEMA camps. Which is nice because it means AJ is a great spokesperson for all those "buy gold" and "get your seeds now" advertisements. Funny how that works.

Collectively parsing manufactured realities to discover avenues of resistance is a beautiful thing. But its not what AJ is about.

Not to mention, he runs ads on Rush Limbaugh for fuck's sake.

I think he's a fascist.
"What's robbing a bank compared with founding a bank?" Bertolt Brecht
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Post by 23 »

lightningBugout wrote:I think he's a fascist.
So I guess this means that the guests who come on his show...

http://www.alexjonespodcasts.com/Guests/ ...

are supporters of facism then.

That, or they're blind to his fascist views.

Poor Ralp Nader, Cindy Sheehan, Naomi Wolf, Ron Paul, Greg Palast, Ray McGovern, John Taylor Gatto, et al.

Either they're blind to AJ's fascism or they're supporters of it.

Glad you can see what they don't, though.

There's hope for us yet.
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Post by barracuda »

23 wrote:Either they're blind to AJ's fascism or they're supporters of it.
There's no third way? Perhaps they recognise that his audience share their concerns to some degree, and have chosen to attempt to voice their message through a flawed mechanism rather than none at all. Or for some other entirely different reason.
The most dangerous traps are the ones you set for yourself. - [i]Phillip Marlowe[/i]
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Post by 23 »

I strongly doubt that... if the examples of intelligent guests that I cited thought that AJ was a fascist... they would come on his show for any reason.

But I suspect that they don't. Nor have I read or heard them mention any semblance of an opinion that he is.

I trust their judgement before I would someone who views him as a fascist.

barracuda wrote:
23 wrote:Either they're blind to AJ's fascism or they're supporters of it.
There's no third way? Perhaps they recognise that his audience share their concerns to some degree, and have chosen to attempt to voice their message through a flawed mechanism rather than none at all. Or for some other entirely different reason.
"Once you label me, you negate me." — Soren Kierkegaard
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Post by lightningBugout »

Alex Jones On Homosexuals, for example.....
Alex Jones wrote:"I don't like that your culture doesn't produce children, so you gotta come rob ours. See you're like, oh, just let me have my rights, and do what I want in my own bedroom. Go ahead, I'm not obsessed with that, I'm not hung up on that, like all the fake Republican leaders who are all constantly caught in bathrooms and trying to bugger children. I'm not obsessed and hung up on it.

"But I do know that almost every family court judge I've studied in the country that seizes kids is a lesbian or a gay man, and they feed the kids to the child protection system that then give them to gay and lesbian families, and I'm telling you, your headhunting of children is bad news and very very wicked, and you know what? You're committing a crime and you need to face up to the fact that you don't reproduce, so decide that you're not going to have children."
"What's robbing a bank compared with founding a bank?" Bertolt Brecht
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