rigorousintuition.ca

Sweejack, nice intermission. Probably deserves it own thread. I remember researching this as best as I could in the pre-internet days and discovering the shoot down was not what the Reagun-auts said it was.

Of interest from StratFor. My apologies if this has already been posted.

Russia's Interest in Litvinenko
By George Friedman


The recent death of a former Russian intelligence agent, Alexander Litvinenko, apparently after being poisoned with polonium-210, raises three interesting questions. First: Was he poisoned by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), the successor to the KGB? Second: If so, what were they trying to achieve? Third: Why were they using polonium-210, instead of other poisons the KGB used in the past? In short, the question is, what in the world is going on?

Litvinenko would seem to have cut a traditional figure in Russian and Soviet history, at least on the surface. The first part of his life was spent as a functionary of the state. Then, for reasons that are not altogether clear, he became an exile and a strident critic of the state he had served. He published two books that made explosive allegations about the FSB and President Vladimir Putin, and he recently had been investigating the shooting death of a Russian journalist, Anna Politkovskaya, who also was a critic of the Putin government. Clearly, he was intent on stirring up trouble for Moscow.

Russian and Soviet tradition on this is clear: Turncoats like Litvinenko must be dealt with, for two reasons. First, they represent an ongoing embarrassment to the state. And second, if they are permitted to continue with their criticisms, they will encourage other dissidents -- making it appear that, having once worked for the FSB, you can settle safely in a city like London and hurl thunderbolts at the Motherland with impunity. The state must demonstrate that this will not be permitted to happen, that turncoats will be dealt with no matter what the circumstances.

The death of Litvinenko, then, certainly makes sense from a political perspective. But it is the perspective of the old Soviet Union -- not of the new Russia that many believed was being born, slowly and painfully, with economic opening some 15 years ago. This does not mean, however, that the killing would not serve a purpose for the Russian administration, in the current geopolitical context.

For years, we have been forecasting and following the transformation of Russia under Vladimir Putin. Putin became president of Russia to reverse the catastrophe of the Yeltsin years. Under communism, Russia led an empire that was relatively poor but enormously powerful in the international system. After the fall of Communism, Russia lost its empire, stopped being enormously powerful, and became even poorer than before. Though Westerners celebrated the fall of communism and the Soviet Union, these turned out to be, for most Russians, a catastrophe with few mitigating tradeoffs.

Obviously, the new Russia was of enormous benefit to a small class of entrepreneur, led by what became known as the oligarchs. These men appeared to be the cutting edge of capitalism in Russia. They were nothing of the sort. They were simply people who knew how to game the chaos of the fall of communism, figuring out how to reverse Soviet expropriation with private expropriation. The ability to turn state property into their own property represented free enterprise only to the most superficial or cynical viewers.

The West was filled with both in the 1990s. Many academics and journalists saw the process going on in Russia as the painful birth of a new liberal democracy. Western financial interests saw it as a tremendous opportunity to tap into the enormous value of a collapsing empire. The critical thing is that the creation of value, the justification of capitalism, was not what was going on. Rather, the expropriation of existing value was the name of the game. Bankers loved it, analysts misunderstood it, and the Russians were crushed by it.

It was this kind of chaos into which Putin stepped when he became president, and which he has slowly, inexorably, been bringing to heel for several years. This is the context in which Litvinenko's death -- which, admittedly, raises many questions -- must be understood.

The Andropov Doctrine

Let's go back to Yuri Andropov, who was the legendary head of the KGB in the 1970s and early 1980s and the man who first realized that the Soviet Union was in massive trouble. Alone of all institutions in the world, the KGB had the clearest idea of the condition of the Soviet Union. Andropov realized in the early 1980s that the Soviet economy was failing and that, with economic failure, it would collapse. Andropov knew that the exploitation of Western innovation had always been vital to the Soviet economy. The KGB had been tasked with economic and technical espionage in the West. Rather than developing their own technology, in many instances, the Soviets innovated by stealing Western technology via the KGB, essentially using the KGB as an R&D system. Andropov understood just how badly the Soviet Union needed this innovation and how inefficient the Soviet kleptocracy was.

Andropov engineered a new concept. If the Soviet Union was to survive, it had to forge a new relationship with the West. The regime needed not only Western technology, but also Western-style management systems and, above all, Western capital. Andropov realized clearly that so long as the Soviet Union was perceived as a geopolitical threat to the West and, particularly, to the United States, this transfer was not going to take place. Therefore, the Soviet Union had to shift its global strategy and stop threatening Western geopolitical interests.

The Andropov doctrine argued that the Soviet Union could not survive if it did not end, or at least mitigate, the Cold War. Furthermore, if it was to entice Western investment and utilize that investment efficiently, it needed to do two things. First, there had to be a restructuring of the Soviet economy (perestroika). Second, the Soviet system had to be opened to accept innovation (glasnost). Andropov's dream for the Soviet Union never really took hold during his lifetime, as he died several months after becoming the Soviet leader. He was replaced by a non-entity, Konstantin Chernenko, who also died after a short time in office. And then there was Mikhail Gorbachev, who came to embody the KGB's strategy.

Gorbachev was clearly perceived by the West as a reformer, which he certainly was. But less clear to the West was what his motives for reform were. He was in favor of glasnost and perestroika, but not because he rejected the Soviet system. Rather, Gorbachev embraced these because, like the KGB, he was desperately trying to save the system. Gorbachev pursued the core vision of Yuri Andropov -- and by the time he took over, he was the last hope for that vision. His task was to end the Cold War and trade geopolitical concessions for economic relations with the West.

It was a well-thought-out policy, but it was ultimately a desperate one -- and it failed. In conceding Central Europe, allowing it to break away without Soviet resistance, Gorbachev lost control of the entire empire, and it collapsed. At that point, the economic restructuring went out of control, and openness became the cover for chaos -- with the rising oligarchs and others looting the state for personal gain. But one thing remained: the KGB, both as an institution and as a group of individuals, continued to operate.

Saving the System: A Motive for Murder?

As a young KGB operative, Vladimir Putin was a follower of Andropov. Like Andropov, was committed to the restructuring of the Soviet Union in order to save it. He was a foot soldier in that process.

Putin and his FSB faction realized in the late 1990s that, however lucrative the economic opening process may have been for some, the net effect on Russia was catastrophic. Unlike the oligarchs themselves, many of whom were indifferent to the fate of Russia, Putin understood that the path they were on would only lead to another revolution -- even more catastrophic than the first. Outside of Moscow and Petersburg, there was hunger and desperation. The conditions for disaster were all there.

Putin also realized that Russia had not reaped the sought-after payoff with its loss of prestige and power in the world. Russia had traded geopolitics but had not gotten sufficient benefits in return. This was driven home during the Kosovo crisis, when the United States treated fundamental Russian interests in the Balkans with indifference and contempt. It was clear by then to Putin that Boris Yeltsin had to go. Go he did, with Putin taking over.

Putin is a creation of Andropov. In his bones, he believes in the need for a close economic relationship with the West. But his motives are not those of the oligarchs, and certainly not those of the West. His goal, like that of the KGB, is the preservation and reconstruction of the Russian state. For Putin, perestroika and glasnost were tactical necessities that caused a strategic disaster. He came into office with the intention of reversing that disaster. He continued to believe in the need for openness and restructuring, but only as a means toward the end of Russian power, not as an end in itself.

For Putin, the only solution to Russian chaos was the reassertion of Russian value. The state was the center of Russian society, and the intelligence apparatus was the center of the Russian state. Thus, Putin embarked on a new, slowly implemented policy. First, bring the oligarchs under control; don't necessarily destroy them, but compel them to work in parallel with the state. Second, increase Moscow's control over the outlying regions. Third, recreate a Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union. Fourth, use the intelligence services internally to achieve these ends and externally to reassert Russian global authority.

None of these goals could be accomplished if a former intelligence officer could betray the organs of the state and sit in London hurling insults at Putin, the FSB and the Russian state. For a KGB man trained by Andropov, this would show how far Russia had fallen. Something would have to be done about it. Litvinenko's death, seen from this standpoint, was a necessary and inevitable step if Putin's new strategy to save the Russian state is to have meaning.

Anomaly

That, at least, is the logic. It makes sense that Litvinenko would have been killed by the FSB. But there is an oddity: The KGB/FSB have tended to use poison mostly in cases where they wanted someone dead, but wanted to leave it unclear how he died and who had killed him. Poison traditionally has been used when someone wants to leave a corpse in a way that would not incur an autopsy or, if a normal autopsy is conducted, the real cause of death would not be discovered (as the poisons used would rapidly degrade or leave the body). When the KGB/FSB wanted someone dead, and wanted the world to know why he had been killed -- or by whom -- they would use two bullets to the brain. A professional hit leaves no ambiguity.

The use of polonium-210 in this case, then, is very odd. First, it took a long time to kill Litvinenko -- giving him plenty of time to give interviews to the press and level charges against the Kremlin. Second, there was no way to rationalize his death as a heart attack or brain aneurysm. Radiation poisoning doesn't look like anything but what it is. Third, polonium-210 is not widely available. It is not something that you pick up at your local pharmacy. The average homicidal maniac would not be able to get hold of it or use it.

So, we have a poisoning, and no mistake but that it was deliberate. Litvinenko was killed slowly, leaving him plenty of time to confirm that he thought that Putin did it. And the poison would be very difficult to obtain by anyone other than a state agency. Whether it was delivered from Russia -- something the Russians have denied -- or stolen and deployed in Britain, this is not something to be tried at home, kids. So, there was a killing, designed to look like what it was -- a sophisticated hit.

This certainly raises questions among conspiracy theorists and others. The linkage back to the Russian state appears so direct that some might argue it points to other actors or factions that are out to stir up trouble for Putin, rather than to Putin himself. Others might say that Litvinenko was killed slowly, yet with an obvious poisoning signature, so that he in effect could help to broadcast the Kremlin's message -- and cause other dissidents to think seriously about their actions.

We know only what everyone else knows about this case, and we are working deductively. For all we know, Litvinenko had a very angry former girlfriend who worked in a nuclear lab. But while that's possible, one cannot dismiss the fact that his death -- in so public a manner -- fits in directly with the logic of today's Russia and the interests of Vladimir Putin and his group. It is not that we know or necessarily believe Putin personally ordered a killing, but we do know that in the vast apparatus of the FSB, giving such an order would not have been contrary to the current inclinations of the leadership.

And whatever the public's impression of the case might be, the KGB/FSB has not suddenly returned to the scene. In fact, it never left. Putin has been getting the system back under control for these past years. The free-for-all over economic matters has been ended, and Putin has been restructuring the Russian economy for several years to increase state control, without totally reversing openness. This process, however, requires the existence of a highly disciplined FSB -- and that is not compatible with someone like a Litvinenko, publicly criticizing the Kremlin from London. Litvinenko's death would certainly make that point very clear.

That Mario Scaramella is interesting:

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid ... 1787322006

'Italian who dined with the former KGB spy may yet share his fate'
STEPHEN MCGINTY

HE IS an enigma. An Italian academic at a university that refuses to confirm his status. A suspected gun runner. A victim of the Russian state or an secret extension of its iron fist? Questions swirled around the smartly dressed figure of Mario Scaramella last night as it was revealed he was carrying traces of polonium 210 in a "significant" quantity.

The Italian who dined with Alexander Litvinenko on the day the former KGB spy fell ill with radioactive poisoning was taken to University College Hospital London yesterday. Last night doctors confirmed he had been contaminated, though with far less of the substance than the dead Russian.

Consultant Keith Patterson said: "Tests have detected polonium 210 in Mr Scaramella's body but at a considerably lower level than Mr Litvinenko. He is currently well and shows no symptoms of radiation poisoning. He is receiving further tests over the weekend."

The revelation that Mr Scaramella's body contained a level which, experts said, was far above that expected on those exposed by social contact with Mr Litvinenko, indicates that he could have been a target of a second political assassination - "My son has been poisoned," claimed his father, Amedeo Scaramella, from Naples, last night.

But the difference in dosages between the two men may be a sign the academic was involved in a poisoning attempt in some other unexplained way.

What has become clear is that Winston Churchill's famous description of Russia as "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma" could equally well describe Mr Scaramella.

When Mr Litvinenko became ill, Mr Scaramella came forward to explain how he had met the former KGB officer at the Itsu sushi bar in London to discuss a hit-list of Russian critics, mentioning Mr Litvinenko. They had first met when Mr Scaramella brought Mr Litvinenko to Italy in 2004 to testify to the Mitrokhin Commission, set up in 2001 to investigate KGB activities in Italy during and after the Cold War.

Mr Scaramella later told Italian authorities that Mr Litvinenko told him of an arms shipment coming to Italy, to be used in assassination attempts against him and Senator Paolo Guzzanti, who was chairing the commission.

Yesterday the Italian newspaper La Repubblica claimed the academic was under investigation for smuggling weapons between the former Soviet Union and Italy. It detailed how police in his home town, Naples, had been looking into the consulting work Mr Scaramella had carried out with Mr Guzzanti while working on the Mitrokhin Commission.

The newspaper alleged that police became suspicious as Mr Scaramella was said to have "detailed information", down to the route of the truck carrying the weapons.

It claimed police intercepted conversations with Mr Litvinenko discussing arms shipments from the former Soviet Union. They also intercepted conversations with another Russian secret service defector Euvgenij Limarev - the source of the e-mail hit-list shown to Mr Litvinenko.

La Repubblica claimed that magistrates asked Italian intelligence whether Mr Scaramella was working for them and were told he was not - though they could not be sure he was not working for another department. The article quoted sources who believed Mr Scaramella and his organisation, the Environmental Crime Prevention Programme, were CIA funded.

Mr Scaramella's lawyer says he has been told of no investigation and that he is happy to co-operate with magistrates.

What is known is that information on Mr Scaramella is difficult to come by. When Naples University - where he has been said to be based - has refused to say whether he works there.

In a 2004 interview with La Repubblica, he said he was a security expert trained in England, France and Belgium, was 36 and had two children.

He also said he had held a post at San Jose University in the United States and had been recruited by the CIA to go to Colombia to research links between Russian spies and drug trafficking.

On 13 March, 2004, while he was a consultant for the inquiry into alleged links between the KGB and the leftist Italian militants the Red Brigades, he was caught in gunfire between police and Mafia.

Information about the Environmental Crime Prevention Programme, which Mr Scaramella is said to head, is also scarce.

Nick Pisa, the first British journalist to interview Mr Scaramella following the Litvinenko poisoning, said: "The one thing I could not shake from my mind was how he spoke English with a slight Russian accent - being of southern Italian background myself I can recognise a Neapolitan accent and Professor Scaramella had no trace of one when he spoke English.

"His mannerisms were not like those of a typical southern Italian - there was very little hand waving and excitable chatter.

"Two days later, he held his now infamous press conference in Rome where he shattered illusions of James Bond style espionage by revealing he had eaten at Pizza Hut before meeting Litvinenko. Again this to me seemed strange - a true Neapolitan would never dream of having pizza anywhere but Naples, let alone set foot in Pizza Hut.

There are lots of things that just don't add up.

It crossed my mind he may be a fantasist who likes to talk the talk, but now I'm not so sure. My firm belief is that he is a spy, but who for, exactly, is the question."

Yet a bright light was shone on the relationship between Mr Scaramella and Mr Litvinenko, who was quoted in a previously unpublished interview as saying that he believed the professor threatened to have his brother evicted from Italy in order to secure his testimony before the commission.

He described how Mr Scaramella had paid for his flight and hotel expenses to give evidence.

Mr Litvinenko said: "We arranged that I would come to Italy in February 2004. Then around that time something unexplainable happened. I have a brother called Maxim who has lived in Italy for four years. A month before I was due to arrive Maxim called me in a desperate state.

"The police no longer recognised his education visa and were going to expel him and send him back to Russia, which meant certain death. I asked Mario for help. He said not to worry and that [prime minister Silvio] Berlusconi had taken a personal interest in my information and that it would be sorted out and Maxim had nothing to worry about.

"I gave the commission all the help they wanted and Maxim was given political asylum. Maxim told me Mario had gone to the police station in Rimini and spoken to the police. I'm certain the whole thing was done to convince me to co-operate.''

Now it is Mr Scaramella who is co-operating with Scotland Yard, which, according to a close friend of the professor, is housing him in a castle. Mr Scaramella is said to have commented: "They are treating me like the Prince of Wales."

They are also treating him like a potential key to the case. The question many people will be asking is whether he is a victim or a possible perpetrator.

Tests show traces of radiation on Litvinenko's wife
THE wife of ex-Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko has tested positive for traces of polonium-210 following the former intelligence officer's death, friends and officials said yesterday.

Marina Litvinenko had shown no ill effects after she was confirmed as having shown traces of the radioactive substance, the former spy's friend, Alex Goldfarb, said.

"She is very slightly contaminated," Mr Goldfarb said. "There are no dangerous levels, no treatment, no hospitalisation."

Pat Troop, chief executive of the Britain's Health Protection Agency, said earlier that the member of the family who had tested positively - who had not yet been named as his wife - had been exposed to a "very small" long-term health risk

"This adult family member received a tiny fraction of the lethal dose received by Mr Litvinenko himself," Ms Troop said.

Mr Litvinenko's wife and his father, Walter, kept a vigil at his hospital bedside in the days before he died.

So far 2,655 people have contacted NHS Direct fearing that they may have been in contact with the substance. A total of 356 have been asked to provide a urine sample for analysis.

But this figure could rise further as police trace Mario Scaramella's movements in the UK - revealing more sites that would have to be examined by scientists for alpha radiation.

Meanwhile, the post-mortem examination on Mr Litvinenko was completed yesterday at the Royal London Hospital. Those present wore protective clothing to avoid contamination.

Funeral service for murdered spy


About 50 friends and family members are attending the funeral service of Russian ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko.

His wife and son were among mourners at Highgate Cemetery in north London. This followed prayers at a London mosque.

The former KGB agent's death on 23 November, in London, has been linked to the radioactive isotope polonium-210.

Russian prosecutors are investigating what they are treating as the murder of Mr Litvinenko and the attempted murder of his associate Dmitry Kovtun.

Radiation concerns

The mourners, including Mr Litvinenko's father, Walter, joined Muslims for midday prayers at the Central London mosque in Regent's Park, where a funeral reading was given.

Chechen separatist Akhmed Zakayev, who was a friend of Mr Litvinenko, was also in attendance, along with exiled Russian billionaire Boris Berezovsky and filmmaker Andrei Nekrasov.

Mosque representative Ghayasuddin Siddiqui said Mr Litvinenko's body could not be brought to the mosque.

Mr Zakayev had said earlier this week the body would not be taken to the mosque because of concerns about the radiation it contained.

Mr Litvinenko's coffin, a dark-stained Jacobean oak Garratt casket, was being laid to rest in what was expected to be a non-denominational service.

Poisoning

Mr Kovtun met Mr Litvinenko at the Millennium Hotel in Grosvenor Square, London on 1 November. Hours later Mr Litvinenko fell ill.

A statement from the prosecutor's office said checks had established Mr Litvinenko died as a result of poisoning from a radioactive substance.

It said Mr Kovtun had suffered an illness connected to poisoning by a radioactive substance.

Mr Kovtun is reported to have been interviewed by British police in Moscow.

In another development British authorities played down the risk to health after small traces of a radioactive substance were found at the British embassy in Moscow following a precautionary check.

Officials said the levels of radiation found would not pose a risk to public health.




Hotel workers test positive

In London, Scotland Yard confirmed it was treating Mr Litvinenko's death as murder.

"It is important to stress that we have reached no conclusions as to the means employed, the motive or the identity of those who might be responsible for Mr Litvinenko's death," a statement said.

The British embassy announced on 4 December it would test one of its rooms as a precaution, after former KGB bodyguard Andrei Lugovoi visited the building to deny any involvement in the poisoning of Mr Litvinenko, 43.

Mr Lugovoi and Mr Kovtun reportedly met Mr Litvinenko at the Millennium Hotel. Mr Lugovoi is also expected to be interviewed in Moscow.

Restrictions

Russian officials are expected to conduct the interview but British detectives will be in attendance.

Nine Metropolitan police officers are currently in Moscow but have had restrictions placed on their investigations into Mr Litvinenko's death by the authorities.

Russia's chief prosecutor, Yuri Chaika, said British officers could not arrest Russian citizens and suspects would not be extradited to Britain.

Tests have been carried out at a number of venues Mr Litvinenko visited in London on that day.

Earlier, Mario Scaramella, the Italian academic who also met Mr Litvinenko on 1 November - at a sushi bar - was discharged from hospital in London.

Mr Scaramella was under observation after testing positive for polonium-210.

Friends believe Mr Litvinenko was poisoned because of his criticisms of the Russian government, but the Kremlin has dismissed suggestions it was involved in any way as "sheer nonsense".


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6216202.stm


ON Monday the cops were testing the Mosque for radioactivity, same as other sites in London.

No news as yet as to the results. But US Ambassador Tuttle is nextdoor neighbor on the other side of the road. Maybe they'll test his place too.

isachar wrote:Sweejack, nice intermission. Probably deserves it own thread. I remember researching this as best as I could in the pre-internet days and discovering the shoot down was not what the Reagun-auts said it was.

http://rigorousintuition.ca/board/viewtopic.php?t=9746

http://www.russiaprofile.org/politics/2 ... 6/4718.wbp

The point is that Russia’s democratic development is a kind of test case, an artificial laboratory experiment. And as with any experiment of this kind, you never know how it will turn out.

Relatively recently, a well-known American journalist—the same woman, in fact, who famously asked “Who is Mr. Putin?”—told me about a frank conversation she had with Vladislav Surkov at the very beginning of the Putin administration. The gist of it was as follows: First we will establish the “power vertical,” and then we will, of our own accord and under our own control, start to expand the limits of pluralism, and gradually create a responsible opposition to ourselves.

In essence, everything that has happened to the political system over the last decade fits into this strategy. Broadly speaking, first NTV television—whose show Kukly made fun of presidents Yeltsin and Putin—was appropriated, and then a Kremlin-friendly political expert was appointed to host an analytical program using puppets, including one of the president, who is mocked, sometimes mercilessly. In other words, on one hand the president is a genuine target for irony and comedy, but on the other, everything is under control.

Or, again, first they created a party of power, United Russia, headed by the speaker of the State Duma, and later undertook the formation—“for balance”—of another, headed by the speaker of the Federation Council. And everything turns out kind of rational and logical: Both are guaranteed places in parliament, so here is your normal, stable, Western-style two-party system, in which the parties appear to compete for power, while in fact there are no fundamental differences between them.

... I have always asked myself—how else could we do it?

... As a result, the laboratory experiment goes its own way, while citizens increasingly prefer to deal with their problems not using representative bodies but by means of direct action, be they pensioners, drivers, milkmen, or residents of Kondopoga.

In conditions of a crisis of trust in democratic institutions, it is not important how many parties we have or the percentage of the vote they need to get into the Duma. What is important is to work so that citizens see democracy as an effective instrument to solve their problems, and not just a game being played by the bosses.

Well, good luck.

===============
Surkov again, in Der Spiegel:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/spi ... 36,00.html

Surkov: When the Soviet Union was dissolved, most of us didn't even have the feeling that the country was falling apart. We thought we would continue with our lives as in the past, but as good neighbors. Of course, we also believed that the West loved us and would help us, and that we'd be living like the Europeans in ten years. But everything turned out to be more complicated.

SPIEGEL: Because the West didn't love you after all?

Surkov: No. The West doesn't have to love us. In fact, we should ask ourselves more often why people are so suspicious of us. After all, the West isn't a charity organization. How have we been perceived for centuries? As a huge, warlike realm ruled by despots -- first by the czars and then Bolsheviks. Why should anyone have loved us? If we want to be accepted, we have to do something in return. And it's an art that we have yet to master.

... Surkov: Our average bureaucrat has an archaic understanding of the technology of power. He imagines it as a vertical line with a telephone at the top and a telephone at the bottom, and that's how the country is governed.

... Surkov: Those were not revolutions. The revolutions in those countries took place in the nineties, as in Russia, and they brought about fundamental changes in social structures. Since then, they have had market economies, multiparty systems, free elections and freedom of the press.

SPIEGEL: Then let's call them uprisings against the ruling system. Does this worry you?

Surkov: ... We realize, of course, that these events have made an impression on many local politicians in Russia -- and on various foreign non-governmental organizations that would like to see the scenario repeated in Russia. We understand this. By now there are even technologies for overthrowing governments and schools where one can learn the trade, so to speak.

This is Yegor Gaidar's poisoning experience in his own words. While the conclusions he draws are opinion and possibly motivated by extenuating circumstances, I would think they have more merit than most.

I was poisoned and Russia’s political enemies were surely behind it

By Yegor Gaidar

Published: December 6 2006 19:35 | Last updated: December 6 2006 19:35

On November 24, I found myself involved in a succession of events that resembled a political thriller. A lot has been written about what happened. International television provided detailed coverage of these events. I had not thought that global fame would find me in such an unusual way. I deliberately refused to give interviews. Nevertheless, I am compelled to tell what happened.

Public opinion reserves a degree of humour for those who have survived attempted murder. The nature of this phenomenon is not clear to me. Having been in this situation myself, I found nothing funny about it. But the logic of public consciousness is a fact of life. One has to reckon with it. I will try to keep my sense of humour while telling what happened.

ADVERTISEMENT

On November 21, I felt exhausted. Over the previous three weeks, several difficult business trips added to my usual workload. I considered cancelling my trip to Ireland and resting. However, Ireland is a wonderful country, which I love. And the trip was easy: a university research conference and presentation of my book Death of the Empire: Lessons for Modern Russia was one of its subjects. I decided I would not cancel the trip.

Next morning, after my arrival in Dublin, I was walking with a conference organiser, foreign literature library director Yekaterina Geniyeva, when I decided that I had made the right decision. Spending two days with smart and nice people in a lovely old Irish university is both a rest and a pleasure.

Before the conference opening, I had breakfast in the university canteen. I had a fruit salad and asked for a cup of tea. Then I went to the conference hall. About 10 minutes after the session started I realised that I was unable to hear anything. My only thought was how to get back to my hotel room and lie down. I apologised to my colleagues who were presenting the next session, said I felt unwell and had to go back upstairs. Ms Geniyeva looked at me perplexed; 40 minutes earlier we had been having a cheerful chat while walking along university lawns. She probably decided that I was not interested in the subject.

After I got back to my room, I had to close my eyes immediately. The sensation was similar to being under general anaesthesia. You can see and understand things, but it is hard to open your eyes. Reaching for a ringing telephone takes too much effort. I assumed this dusky state was a result of fatigue. I decided that I needed to deliver my lectures and return to Moscow immediately.

I forced myself to deliver my presentation on Russian migration policy at 2.30pm. As soon as I finished my speech, my eyes began to close, fatigue took over and I returned to my room as quickly as I could.

The phone call that apparently saved my life came at 5.10pm. A representative of the organisers reminded me that my book presentation was in five minutes. Would I be taking part? I considered saying no. Had I done so, and had I been alone in my room 15 minutes later, my chances of survival would have been zero. But I had come to Ireland to make a presentation on my book; I would not let some minor ailment get in the way. I stood up, went downstairs and began to speak.

Ten minutes into my speech, I realised I could not continue talking. I apologised to the audience and walked towards the exit. After I crossed the threshold of the conference hall, I collapsed in the university hallway.

I can remember very little about the events of the following several hours. Those who tended to me as I lay on the floor found me bleeding from the nose, with blood and vomit flowing from my mouth. I was pale, unconscious. It appeared as though I was dying.

Within 30 minutes, I started to come around. I tried unsuccessfully to raise my head. An ambulance arrived and I was loaded in to it. All I could do was open and close my eyes and I watched with intense interest the recording of my own cardiogram. The cardiogram is a chart and charts are what I work with. Apparently, professional interest prevails even when the nervous system is damaged.

Once in the hospital, as soon as I regained the ability to think, my own hypothesis was simple: fatigue, combined with maladies often found with men in their 50s: increased sugar level, blood pressure. But my test results bemused the doctors. My heart was working like a clock; blood pressure was high, but only slightly higher than the norm; the same for sugar levels. Meanwhile, the patient was clearly in an extremely grave condition. A stroke was a possibility. I could still not move my hands or feet. But the ability to control my body came back quickly in the following hours. By 7 o’clock the next morning, not only could I stand up from my bed, but I could take a shower and shave. I am not a doctor, but I knew that stroke states are different. It must have been something else.

At 8am, a few hours after I stopped feeling like an inanimate object, I could move, think, make decisions and implement them just as I could 24 hours before. Despite the protests of the Irish doctors, I said that I wanted to leave the hospital immediately. They told me that they had no right to forbid me. But they explained that my case puzzled them. A comparison of test results and my state of health during the late hours of November 24 and early the next day did not tally in any way. They told me that I needed a thorough examination and in-depth analysis. I thanked them for their help and explained that it was easier to take this analysis in Russia, where the doctors had been supervising me for many years and knew my medical history. I arranged a transfer to the Russian embassy, then took a flight to Moscow.

I am not a doctor and realise the limits of unprofessional judgments. Nevertheless, when your life is at stake, it is hard to avoid attempting to understand what happened. My heart, brain, blood pressure, sugar level were either good or without abnormalities. Despite this, I suffered several hours of unconsciousness or semiconsciousness, an inability to control my body, and heavy bleeding from my nose and throat. One of the possible explanations that an unprofessional mind inevitably comes up with in such a situation is poisoning. I remember my state before breakfast very well. It was excellent. Half an hour later it was awful. However, this is an unprofessional view. I suppose that there are pathologies known to medicine that can cause such developments.

Straight from Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport, I headed for the clinic where they have known me for many years. Despite the fact that I landed late at night on a Sunday, the chief doctor convened specialists. I told them what happened and asked them to consider all scenarios that could explain these phenomena. By Monday morning, he had the results of the tests on his desk. One month before the Irish incident I had had a thorough medical check-up. Now we could compare the old and the current pictures. The doctor was unable to explain such large-scale and systemic changes in the body in terms of anything related to intoxication, within the possible range of illnesses known to medicine, nor any of their most exotic combinations. For reasons of professional ethics he could not use the word “poisoning”. A particular poisonous substance should be determined in order to do that. This is impossible 60 hours after the accident, especially if we are talking about secret toxic substances, the information on which is unavailable to open medical science. But we understand each other well. One may blame anybody, even the aliens. If we stay within the framework of common sense, it is poisoning we think of.

When the thought that this could be a result of somebody’s wilful actions crossed my mind for the first time on the afternoon of November 25, I started thinking about who could have orchestrated it. Who would gain from it? I do not have any property to speak of. Neither do I have a profitable metal or oil company, so there is nothing to take away. So, if this was attempted murder, politics was behind it. I have participated in Russian politics for many years now and I know quite a bit about it. I know its main figures well. By then I realised that my survival was a miracle. The fast rate of recuperation showed that the attempt did not aim at mutilation or injury, but murder. Who of the Russian political circle needed my death on the 24th of November 2006, in Dublin? I rejected the idea of complicity of the Russian leadership almost immediately. After the death of Alexander Litvinenko on November 23 in London, another violent death of a famous Russian on the following day is the last thing that the Russian authorities would want. In case of an explosion or skirmish in Moscow, one would think about radical nationalistic thugs first of all. But Dublin? Poisoning? This is obviously not their style.

Most likely that means that some obvious or hidden adversaries of the Russian authorities stand behind the scenes of this event, those who are interested in further radical deterioration of relations between Russia and the west. Within several hours, comparing the dates of events that took place during the past six weeks, I formulated a rather logical and consistent hypothesis on the reasons behind this. The world view regains its intrinsic logic and ceases resembling a Kafkaesque nightmare. Still, it does not look any more enjoyable. Well, as they say in Russia, as long as we are alive, we might even be happy some day, but that is a different story.

The writer, former prime minister of the Russian Federation, is director of the Institute for the Economy in Transition. Translation by Veronica Malytska

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006

URL: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/aacc818a-855b-1 ... e2340.html

He went to a Russian hospital, I assume that means he felt relatively safe in Russia so I think he believes what he says in that regard.

As an experienced politician I would think that poisoning would be the FIRST thing on my mind!

Reports say he first felt sick in Bulgaria.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20061209/56697552.html

Traces of radiation linked to Litvinenko case found in Germany - 1

BERLIN/MOSCOW, December 9 (RIA Novosti) - Police in the German city of Hamburg on Saturday reported finding traces of radiation in places visited by a key witness in the murder case of former Russian intelligence agent Alexander Litvinenko.

Massive radiation checks are being carried out in Britain, Russia, and Germany as part of an international investigation into the murder of Litvinenko, who died in London November 23 of poisoning caused by radioactive substance polonium 210. He defected to the UK several years ago, and was known as a staunch critic of President Vladimir Putin.

No radiation has been detected in Russian spy-turned-businessman Dmitry Kovtun's Hamburg apartment, but his ex-wife's flat in the suburb of Pinneberg has proved contaminated.

Kovtun, who met with Litvinenko in London shortly before the exiled spy was taken to hospital and diagnosed with poisoning, is now reported to have been hospitalized with similar symptoms. His lawyer, however, has dismissed the reports about Kovtun's illness.

British detectives currently in Moscow for their probe into Litvinenko's murder spoke with Kovtun through Russian counterparts earlier this week. But they have still been unable to question Andrei Lugovoy, another key witness in the case, who went to see the defected spy in London together with Kovtun.

The Sunday Times December 10, 2006


Kremlin wants to quiz oligarch in exile in London
Mark Franchetti and Jon Ungoed-Thomas


RUSSIAN prosecutors investigating the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko, the former spy, want to travel to London to question a billionaire Russian exile and a Chechen associate.

The move is likely to further strain relations between Russia and Britain, which have been undermined by allegations that the FSB, the former KGB, might be involved in the killing. Russian authorities are also suspected of disrupting the BBC Russian service’s coverage of the murder.



The Russian investigators’ targets are Boris Berezovsky, a billionaire businessman who employed Litvinenko and is a long-standing critic of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and Akhmed Zakayev, a Chechen exile the Russians have wanted to extradite on terrorism charges, which he denies.

“There is no doubt that we will demand to question Berezovsky and Zakayev,” said a source close to the Moscow inquiry. “They both knew Litvinenko and could hold vital information.”

Russian investigators are likely to want to question Berezovsky about his links to Andrei Lugovoi, a key witness and possible suspect. Lugovoi had previously worked for Berezovsky, and it is understood the oligarch was considering employing him as a security adviser.

Zakayev was a close friend of Litvinenko. He accused the Moscow authorities of launching a black propaganda campaign over the former spy’s murder. “One [Moscow] version is that Mr Berezovsky killed Litvinenko because it was in his interests. It’s an absurd allegation,” he said.

The Home Office has refused previous requests from Moscow for the extradition of Berezovsky and Zakayev. The Moscow intervention will be viewed by critics of the regime as a crude tactic to divert attention from the Kremlin.

The threat of a diplomatic row between London and Moscow comes amid developments in the investigation. These include:

Traces of polonium are reported to have been found in a cup and a dishwasher at the Millennium hotel in Mayfair, where Litvinenko had a meeting on the day he is believed to have been poisoned.
Police in Hamburg, Germany, yesterday found radiation in apartments linked to Dmitry Kovtun, one of the three businessmen who met Litvinenko at the Millennium hotel on November 1. A German civilian jet was also tested for contamination.
Moscow authorities have been accused of a misinformation campaign after it was reported that Kovtun had slipped into a coma on Friday. Kovtun denied the report this weekend in a telephone conversation with The Sunday Times.
Mikhail Trepashkin, who is detained in Russia and who had warned Litvinenko his life was in danger, has been moved to a high-security jail. He will not be allowed to speak with British investigators.
New tests indicate that Mario Scaramella, one of Litvinenko’s associates, is free of polonium contamination, despite being initially told he had been given 10 times the lethal dose.

Litvinenko’s friends believe he was assassinated by his former employer, the FSB. They are compiling files on previous cases that they now believe may be linked to polonium, including the deaths of two Chechen leaders in prison and that of one of Putin’s former bodyguards who died of “an unexplained illness”. The Kremlin has said it is “complete nonsense” to link these deaths to polonium.



Speculation about the possible role of the Kremlin has angered Russian authorities. It was reported yesterday that the Russians were suspected of disrupting the BBC’s Russian service FM broadcast in Moscow and St Petersburg at the height of the coverage of the Litvinenko poisoning.

There is also suspicion that the Kremlin might be orchestrating a campaign to discredit Litvinenko. It emerged yesterday that Julia Svetlichnaya, a Russian academic who suggested the former spy might be involved in a blackmail plot, is believed to have been previously employed as a communications manager for a state-owned Russian company.

There are also reports that the Russian authorities are suspected of orchestrating a campaign of harassment against Tony Brenton, Britain’s ambassador in Moscow. Brenton has been targeted by Nashi, a nationalist youth movement linked to the Kremlin, since he gave a speech to the Russian opposition in July.

While Tony Blair is anxious that relations with Moscow do not suffer irreversible damage in the affair, Russian dissidents insist he adopts a tougher line. Vladimir Bukovsky, the leading Russian dissident in London, said: “We expect the British government to respond properly. Instead, we hear that our so-called prime minister told his colleagues that the priority is to retain good and friendly relations with Russia.

“What is this? A licence to kill? An open invitation to come and murder anyone Russia wishes as long as we have positive relations. Prime minister, you are wrong. Your prime duty as prime minister is to defend the citizens of this country and its sovereignty.”

British detectives in Moscow were still waiting to interview Lugovoi yesterday. He was due to be interviewed on Tuesday, but has not yet been made available by the Russian authorities .

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 88,00.html

Spies sent 'to seize cash from Yukos exiles'
Daniel McGrory and Tony Halpin



In his last investigation before he was murdered, Alexander Litvinenko claimed to have uncovered a plan by the Russian Federal Security Service to claw back millions of pounds from wealthy Russians who fled to London and other Western capitals.

Most of the exiled executives are said to have worked for Yukos, the $10 billion energy giant seized by the Kremlin. Litvinenko had visited some of the alleged targets to warn them that the Russian intelligence services planned to intimidate them and their families to recover millions of dollars.



He also claimed to have discovered the amount of money that those on the list were expected to hand over, and that teams of Russian agents were being sent abroad to track them down.

Most of those on the list already knew the danger they faced: a number of former Yukos officials have been murdered or jailed or have disappeared in recent years.

Stephen Curtis, the British managing director of a company that had been the main shareholder in Yukos, died in a helicopter crash close to his palatial home in Dorset in March 2004. He died a fortnight after he went to Scotland Yard saying that he had received death threats. He told detectives that he feared that a hit team had been sent from Moscow to assassinate him.

Yuri Chaika, the Russian prosecutor-general, who has taken over the investigation into the Litvinenko affair, has been conducting a fresh inquiry in Moscow into the Yukos affair. Official approaches that President Putin has made in the past three years to Whitehall and other Western governments has, however, failed to persaude them to send back a single person on the Kremlin’s wanted list.

Mr Chaika announced this week that he was extending his Yukos investigation until March, although Russian officials do not expect governments such as Britain to change their minds. Mr Chaika might now use the Litvinenko affair as an excuse to send prosecutors to London to seek access to exiled Russian millionaires.

At least a dozen former Yukos personnel have been given asylum in Britain, including a former vice-president, Alexander Temerko, and senior figures such as Dmitry Maruyev and Natalia Chernyshova, whom the Russians have charged with fraud. All deny any wrongdoing. Three attempts by the authorities in Moscow to have the 12 sent back to Russia were blocked by the English courts.

Litvinenko claimed in his dossier that the FSB decided to take matters into its own hands to recover billions of dollars through a covert campaign of intimidation, dirty tricks and murder. He flew to Israel in secret weeks before he was murdered to meet Leonid Nevzlin, one of the most wanted of the targets.

Mr Nevzlin was second in command at Yukos and the business partner of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who is in a Siberian jail sentenced to nine years for fraud. Litvinenko was too scared to write down all his information and insisted on telling Mr Nevzlin and others in person about FSB plans for them. Mr Nevzlin said that the Litvinenko investigation “shed light on most significant aspects of the Yukos affair”. He has now passed the dossier to Scotland Yard, believing that Litvinenko’s delving into the Yukos connection was a reason his enemies at the Kremlin wanted him silenced.

Detectives investigating his poisoning last week questioned as a witness another former KGB officer, Yuri Shvets, who knew Litvinenko and was aware of his dealings with Yukos. There are some who have questioned Litvinenko’s motive for getting involved in the Yukos affair. Friends such as Alex Goldfarb said that the former KGB spy, who was given British citizenship last month, wanted to illustrate how the Kremlin was sending hit teams abroad to deal with its enemies.

A London-based academic, Julia Svetlichnaja, claims that Litivineko confided in her that his plan was to blackmail some of those on the FSB target list. Ms Svetlichnaja, 33, who is writing a book on the Chechen conflict, said that she received more than 100 e-mails from the dissident.

Litvinenko knew Curtis, whose job it was to set up this impenetrable network of accounts for Yukos executives that stretched from Mauritius to the Dutch Antilles.An the inquest into his death, his wife said Mr Curtis had received threatening letters and had told relatives that if anything “untoward” happened to him “it will not be an accident”. The jury ruled that the crash was an accident.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 77,00.html

Stephen Curtis, the British managing director of a company that had been the main shareholder in Yukos,

http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/355 ... yukos.html

Documents of Group MENATEP, the company controlling 61 per cent of Yukos shares, say that in case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky's death or non-ability 50 per cent of the Group shares that are currently in trust ownership may only go to one of the co-owners of a Gibraltar company who have been earlier appointed by Mr. Khodorkovsky himself. It is not clear if this may be Leonid Nevzlin who has escaped to Israel or somebody else. One thing is for sure is that Lord Jacob Rothschild, the prominent international financier, the head of Britain's Rothschild Family is on the list of those who are to have control over the Yukos assets. The British Family is known for its seriousness and solidity.

http://pundita.blogspot.com/2005/12/dea ... urtis.html

The death of Stephen Curtis

... Witnesses heard the helicopter's rotor cut out and pilot Mr Radford reported an unspecified problem to air traffic control. It exploded into flames 29 seconds later. ...

On November 3, 2005 the inquest jury returned a verdict of accidental death, saying the crash was probably caused by the pilot becoming disoriented in bad weather.

Stephen Curtis was a lawyer who set up a breathtakingly vast and complex web of shell companies that became Group Menatep, the parent company of Yukos Oil, Russia's most valuable oil company. The shell game allowed Mikhail Khordokovsky and his cohorts to rob the Russian people of billions of dollars.

Stephen Curtis knew enough to put Khordokovsky away for life. When Khordokovsky was arrested in Russia in 2004 on tax evasion and fraud charges he saw that Curtis was appointed managing director of Group Menatep, the parent company of Yukos. But the criminal investigation had spread outside Russia. Swiss auditors looking at possible money laundering or tax evasion attempts raided two Yukos companies and seized their assets.

In the effort to avoid prosecution Stephen Curtis offered to sing to Britain's National Criminal Intelligence Service. He only managed to meet with NCIS twice before he was killed.

Eric Jenkins, Mr Curtis's uncle, told the inquest that his nephew said he was receiving threatening phone calls and was under surveillance. Mr Jenkins said that two weeks before his death Mr Curtis had said that if anything happened to him, it would not be an accident.

Although there was no evidence of sabotage from the Air Accident Investigation Branch (AAIB) ... the father of the pilot, Dennis Radford, said he thought the possibility of sabotage had not been fully investigated by the AAIB.

Also, as a sidebar, I never followed this up.

http://homepage.mac.com/kaaawa/iblog/C1 ... index.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/s ... 59,00.html

Radiation Linked to Contact of Ex-Spy

Monday December 11, 2006 7:31 AM


AP Photo FRA106

By SIMONE UTLER

Associated Press Writer

HAMBURG, Germany (AP) - Traces of the rare radioactive substance polonium-210 were found at a German apartment visited by a contact of fatally poisoned ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko - before the two men met in London, authorities said Sunday.

The polonium traces were found on a couch where Russian businessman Dmitry Kovtun is believed to have slept at his ex-wife's Hamburg apartment the night before he headed to London for a meeting with Litvinenko last month, German investigators said.

Tests on traces of radiation at the apartment ``clearly show that it is polonium-210,'' Gerald Kirchner of the Federal Radiation Protection agency said at a news conference.

Investigators said Kovtun flew to Hamburg from Moscow with Aeroflot on Oct. 28 and departed for London on Nov. 1. That is the day when Kovtun and at least one other Russian met with Litvinenko at London's Millennium Hotel - and when Litvinenko is believed to have fallen ill.

Traces of radiation also were found in the passenger seat of a car that picked Kovtun up from the Hamburg airport, on a document Kovtun brought to Hamburg immigration authorities and at the home of Kovtun's ex-mother-in-law outside Hamburg - all from before the Nov. 1 meeting.

German prosecutors did not say whether they suspect Kovtun might have been involved in Litvinenko's death. But they said they were investigating him on suspicion he may have improperly handled radioactive material.

``At this stage of the investigation, we have sufficient initial cause to believe that he brought the polonium traces to Hamburg outside his body, or that these traces are the result of contact with polonium-210,'' prosecutor Martin Koehnke said.

Officials said that any connection between Kovtun and Litvinenko's death would have to be investigated by British police. British police are treating his death as a murder.

``We still believe that both variants are possible: that he may be a victim, but also that he may have been involved, at least in procuring the polonium,'' Koehnke said.

Litvinenko, an ex-Russian agent who was a fierce Kremlin critic, died Nov. 23 after blaming Russian President Vladimir Putin for the poisoning. The Kremlin has vehemently denied involvement.

Kovtun reportedly is being treated in Moscow for radiation poisoning. Russian authorities have opened a criminal investigation into his poisoning, calling it attempted murder.

Kirchner, the radiation agency official, said it was possible Kovtun could already have been poisoned when he arrived in Hamburg and left behind traces through body fluids such as sweat.

On Saturday, the German plane aboard which Kovtun flew from Hamburg to London tested negative for traces of polonium-210. Investigators raised the possibility that may be because the plane had been cleaned thoroughly.

A security officer for Moscow's Sheremetyevo airport said all Aeroflot planes, including the one which flew to Hamburg on Oct. 28, had been checked for radiation and tested negative. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to the media.

Litvinenko met at the Millennium Hotel in London's Mayfair neighborhood with Kovtun and former Soviet agent Andrei Lugovoi. Another man, security firm head Vyacheslav Sokolenko, has said he was at the hotel but did not participate in the meeting.

Lugovoi has denied that the men were involved in the ex-spy's death.

Meanwhile, Litvinenko's widow said in interviews published Sunday that her late husband's criticism of the Kremlin had antagonized his former secret service colleagues, and contended that Putin had created an atmosphere that ``makes it possible to kill a British person on British soil.''

In her first interviews, Marina Litvinenko said she believed Russian authorities were behind the poisoning of her husband, who sought asylum in Britain in 2000 and obtained citizenship this year. Marina Litvinenko told Sky News in an English-language interview that her husband ``openly went out from system and accused the system of killing people, of kidnap.''

Marina Litvinenko has placed her faith in British investigators but said she does not intend to cooperate with Russian authorities, who plan to come to London to probe her husband's death.

``In Russia, it doesn't matter how many people are killed,'' she said, adding that the life of ``only one person can still be very important in England.''

Also on Sunday, Litvinenko's friend Alex Goldfarb accused Russian authorities of trying to obstruct the British probe by preventing Kovtun and Lugovoi from being questioned.

Lugovoi was supposed to testify after a team of Scotland Yard officers arrived in Moscow on Tuesday. But the interrogation has been postponed several times, although Lugovoi himself has said he is eager to answer questions.

``It's a clumsy effort to cover up the trace, to prevent British investigators from meeting with two key witnesses,'' Goldfarb told The Associated Press.

He added that Lugovoi and Kovtun could be in danger as the authorities ``could try to remove them later.''

``Another crime is unfolding before our eyes - the removal of two key witnesses: Lugovoi and Kovtun,'' he told the AP.

Lugovoi, who is being checked in Russia for radioactive poisoning, said Sunday his condition was ``stable'' and results of his medical checks would be available by the end of the week.

Lugovoi said Kovtun also was in a ``satisfactory'' condition. ``He's not in a coma,'' Lugovoi told the RIA Novosti, denying a report by the Interfax news agency on Thursday.




http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00562.html

Germans Investigate Russian in Poisoning
Radiation Found in Hamburg Predates Meeting With Ex-Agent, Officials Say

By Shannon Smiley and Peter Finn
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, December 11, 2006; Page A13

HAMBURG, Dec. 10 -- German prosecutors said Sunday that they are investigating a Russian businessman for the illegal handling of a radioactive substance in the days after he flew to Germany from Russia and before he left to meet a former Russian internal security agent in London. The development is the strongest indication so far that the plot to poison Alexander Litvinenko in London originated in Moscow.

At a news conference in this port city, German officials said Dmitry Kovtun, who reportedly lies sick in a Moscow hospital, flew to Hamburg from Moscow on Oct. 28 before heading to London on Nov. 1, the day he met Litvinenko at a bar at the Millennium Hotel.

Hamburg's chief prosecutor, Martin Koehnke, said traces of radioactivity found in and around Hamburg and linked to Kovtun's movements before Nov. 1 suggested that he carried the substance to Germany. Koehnke said it was still possible that Kovtun was merely present when polonium-210 was "packaged in Moscow," but German investigators are convinced that he was in contact with the deadly isotope before he met Litvinenko.

"There is probable cause for the initial suspicion that he might have brought the substance with him outside his body to Hamburg, and that he may not only be a victim but could also be a perpetrator," Koehnke said at the news conference in Hamburg police headquarters.

Bolstering that assertion, Thomas Menzel, a police officer leading the investigation, said there is no evidence that Kovtun had returned to Germany after the London meeting with Litvinenko, all but ruling out the possibility, as Kovtun has claimed, that he first came into contact with a radioactive substance at the meeting with Litvinenko.

"We cannot be absolutely sure at the moment, but there has been no evidence to suggest that he returned to Hamburg," Menzel said.

"He is considered to be a suspect," German police said in a statement.

German radiation experts said Sunday that they had confirmed the presence of polonium-210, the substance that killed Litvinenko, at two locations in Germany and were 95 percent certain that traces found at other locations had come from that radioactive isotope. Final tests were needed to confirm its presence at some locations, German officials said. Officials did not specify exactly where the polonium-210 had been found.

Menzel said Kovtun, a Soviet army veteran and business consultant who had lived in Germany for 12 years, flew to Hamburg from Moscow on an Aeroflot flight.

"Aeroflot is not available to us. It is probable that he was already contaminated when he flew on the plane," Menzel said. "We have not received any answers to our questions so far" from Russian authorities.

The Germans have dubbed their investigation "The Third Man," though officials did not explain the reference to the Graham Greene mystery. More than 170 police officers are working on the case, along with members of the federal border police, the federal criminal police and radiation protection officers.

The killing of Litvinenko, which Scotland Yard has classified a murder case, had already led to some deterioration in relations between Britain and Russia, but it now has the potential to impact the wider relationship between the European Union and Russia. Critics of President Vladimir Putin have accused the Kremlin of complicity in the killing, allegations that the Kremlin rejected as absurd amid repeated assertions that the polonium almost certainly did not originate in Russia.

Germans Investigate Russian in Poisoning
The German allegations, however, will throw a fresh spotlight on the Russian investigation of the case. The Russian prosecutor general's office has opened its own inquiry into Litvinenko's death and said it was investigating Kovtun's poisoning as attempted murder.

Attempts to reach Russian officials at the Kremlin and the prosecutor general's office Sunday night were unsuccessful.


The German disclosures indicate that Kovtun was "with the murder weapon before Nov. 1," said Alex Goldfarb, who has been acting as a spokesman for the Litvinenko family in London. But he said Kovtun "had no motive to kill" Litvinenko, so the question remains, "Who hired him and equipped him?"

"It is clear all the tracks lead to Moscow," he said.

Kovtun, 41, first met Litvinenko on Oct. 16 in London, where the two were introduced by another Russian, Andrei Lugovoy, a former KGB agent who attended a military academy with Kovtun in the 1980s. The three discussed possible business deals involving British companies interested in investing in the Russian market, according to a joint interview with Kovtun and Lugovoy on Echo Moskva radio in late November.

Both Litvinenko and Lugovoy at various times had close ties to exiled Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky, a declared enemy of Putin. Lugovoy was head of security for a television channel in Moscow owned by Berezovsky before he fled Russia in 2000 after clashing with Putin. And Litvinenko became a part of Berezovsky's circle in London when he fled Russia after accusing former colleagues in the Federal Security Service, or FSB, of corruption. His allegations had led Russian authorities to press criminal charges against him.

The three Russians met on Nov. 1 at the Millennium Hotel bar in central London. Seven hotel workers have tested positive for exposure to a radioactive substance. An Italian who met separately with Litvinenko the same day has also tested positive for radiation exposure, as has Litvinenko's wife.

Both Kovtun and Lugovoy have denied any involvement in Litvinenko's death.

Laying out a chronology of some of Kovtun's movements, German officials said he landed in Hamburg after flying from Moscow on Oct. 28. He was picked up in a BMW, which has tested positive for radiation, German investigators said.

On Oct. 29, Kovtun spent the night in Haselau, about 16 miles north of Hamburg, at the home of his former mother-in-law. The BMW was found at that location, German officials said, and initial tests detected radiation in the house.

On Oct. 30, Kovtun went to an administrative office for foreigners in Hamburg. Radiation has been detected on his file card, which he signed, German officials said. Neither the employee in the room nor the room itself tested positive. Kovtun has a German residence permit. He was still registered as a Hamburg resident, but police said he had not lived permanently at his listed address in an apartment building on Erzbergerstrasse for a couple of years.

Kovtun told Echo Moskva that he had started working as a business consultant in Moscow and that an enterprise had led to his discussions with Litvinenko.

Kovtun's former wife lives in the same building on Erzbergerstrasse where he was registered. On Oct. 31, Kovtun spent the night on her couch. Police said they found traces of radiation on the couch.

At 6:40 a.m. on Nov. 1, Kovtun took a Germanwings flight from Hamburg to London. The plane was examined yesterday at the Cologne-Bonn airport, but no contamination was detected. Police, explaining that apparent anomaly, said that had Kovtun showered, he might have washed away any trace. They also noted that the plane had been thoroughly cleaned since Kovtun traveled on it.

Finn reported from Moscow. Correspondent Mary Jordan in London contributed to this report.

Just a thought....after such as widespread trail including bars, airplanes, embasssies in Russia, now apartments in Germany, cars, catering staff etc.

?