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by alloneword » Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:46 pm
alloneword » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:24 am wrote:alloneword » Sun Apr 26, 2020 9:24 pm wrote:23ABC (Bakersfield & Kern County, California) interview with a Dr. Dan Erickson and Dr Artin Massihi:
Video seems to have been removed by Youtube, so here it is again (with better audio):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndL0uSmKTQU
by alloneword » Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:22 pm
Risk of digital contact tracing ‘outweighs value’
AI and data research institute says there is “urgent need” to assess efficacy of digital contact tracing app
Warns app currently under development by NHS have “significant” limitations and social risks
Calls for new technology advisory group to be set up to work along SAGE
The “significant technical limitations” and “deep social risks” of digital contact tracing currently outweigh its value as part of the coronavirus crisis response, an independent research institute has warned.
The Ada Lovelace Institute has today published a rapid review of the evidence on the technical considerations and societal implications of using technology to transition from the covid-19 crisis.
HSJ revealed last month that NHSX — part of the Department of Health and Social Care — was working on a contact tracing app, and it continues to be pursued by government as part of plans for exiting current lockdown measures.
by alloneword » Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:56 pm
..on this current page, UKAJI will collate a list to be updated at least every forty-eight hours summarising relevant changes to administrative justice prompted by this pandemic
by alloneword » Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:25 pm
Results
The unadjusted prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara County was 1.5% (exact
binomial 95CI 1.11-1.97%), and the population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%).
Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in
Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates
represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-
85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases.
Conclusions
The population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the infection is
much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. Population prevalence estimates
can now be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
Results
The raw prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in our sample was 1.5% (exact binomial 95CI 1.1-
2.0%). Test performance specificity in our data was 99.5% (95CI 99.2-99.7%) and sensitivity was 82.8%
(95CI 76.0-88.4%). The unweighted prevalence adjusted for test performance characteristics was 1.2%
(95CI 0.7-1.8%). After weighting for population demographics of Santa Clara County, the prevalence was
2.8% (95CI 1.3-4.7%), using bootstrap to estimate confidence bounds. These prevalence point estimates
imply that 54,000 (95CI 25,000 to 91,000 using weighted prevalence; 23,000 with 95CI 14,000-35,000
using unweighted prevalence) people were infected in Santa Clara County by early April, many more than
the approximately 1,000 confirmed cases at the time of the survey.
Conclusions
The estimated population prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Santa Clara County implies that the
infection may be much more widespread than indicated by the number of confirmed cases. More studies
are needed to improve precision of prevalence estimates. Locally-derived population prevalence estimates
should be used to calibrate epidemic and mortality projections.
by alloneword » Fri May 01, 2020 9:57 am
Revealed: How government changed the rules to hit 100,000 tests target
By Nick Carding - 1 May 2020
The government has changed the way it is counting the number of covid-19 tests carried out in a bid to hit its target of 100,000 tests per day by the end of April, HSJ can reveal.
Previously, a test would be counted once the sample had been processed in laboratories. But this definition has been changed in the last few days, a senior source told HSJ.
The Department of Health and Social Care is now including tests that have been posted or delivered to people’s homes in its figures. This means tests which are sent to people are counted before the recipient has provided and returned their sample to a laboratory.
HSJ understands that up to 50,000 of the tests that will be reported as having taken place on 30 April will actually represent the mailing or the agreeing to mail a home testing kit.
In the last seven days (23-30 April) the number of tests reported by the government rose from 23,560 to 81,611.
The source told HSJ that work to achieve the 100,000 tests per day had been “manic” and that the health and social care secretary Matt Hancock was “obsessed” with reaching the target. “They are trying every trick in the book,” the source said.
“They had to get the permanent secretary at DHSC (Chris Wormald) to agree to a change in the counting process.
“We’re now counting a home test as tests which have been sent to people’s homes.”
by alloneword » Fri May 01, 2020 10:23 am
..What does this mean in terms of protecting yourself when you breathe in? It seems very much along the lines of wear one if you want to, but don’t expect it to stop you getting the virus from aerosols...
..does wearing a mask protect others if you’re infectious? There’s little direct evidence to say that it does, and quite a lot of straightforward reasoning to suggest it doesn’t.
by alloneword » Fri May 01, 2020 10:44 am
On the Android front, the company has privately released a beta Google Play services update with the exposure notification API and SDK. Select developers can begin testing with Android Studio. Using Play services allows Google to deliver these capabilities to Android 6.0+ devices without requiring a full system update.
Anonymous COVID-19 contact tracing via Bluetooth (not GPS location) will first become available with iOS 13.5 on iPhone. The software isn’t available publicly yet but Apple just released the beta software to developers.
Contact tracing is called “Exposure Notifications” on iPhone and is turned on at the system level by default.
by alloneword » Fri May 01, 2020 11:04 am
Coronavirus patients feared to have been reinfected had returned false positives, says South Korea
Dead virus fragments likely cause of more than 290 people testing positive again for Covid-19, explains committee for emerging disease control
Samuel Lovett
@samueljlovett
1 day ago
Health authorities in South Korea have reported that patients who appeared to have been reinfected with coronavirus had in fact returned false positives.
The development may alleviate scientific concern that humans are unable to develop long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen that causes Covid-19.
In the earlier stages of the pandemic, reports from South Korea, China and Japan claimed that a number of discharged patients had tested positive after recovering, sometimes weeks after being allowed to leave hospital.
But now, a South Korean expert panel has concluded that dead virus fragments were the likely cause of more than 290 people in the country testing positive after recovery for coronavirus.
Oh Myoung-don, who leads the central clinical committee for emerging disease control, said there was little reason to believe these cases had resulted from reinfection or reactivation...
by alloneword » Sat May 02, 2020 2:47 pm
Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.[preprint]
This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.
by alloneword » Sun May 03, 2020 5:54 am
by alloneword » Mon May 04, 2020 6:56 am
If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with COVID-19.
by alloneword » Mon May 04, 2020 12:18 pm
Flagship Nightingale hospital to be mothballed until second peak
By Ben Clover, Rebecca Thomas4 May 2020
London’s covid-19 hospital is to be largely mothballed until a second peak of infections
The facility, the first of its kind in England, will accept no new patients
Temproary facilities in Birmingham and Yorkshire have not treated patients
London’s Nightingale Hospital is to be mothballed until a second peak, after seeing only a fraction of the patients first envisaged.
Staff at the temporary hospital in east London were told this morning that the facility at the Excel conference centre would not be accepting new patients for the time being. HSJ understands there are still some patients in the facility but that it will move into “standby for a second peak”.
Exclusive: ‘Wobbly’ tracing app ‘failed’ clinical safety and cyber security tests
By Jasmine Rapson4 May 2020
Cyber security
The government’s coronavirus contact tracing app has so far failed the tests needed for it to gain approval to be included in the NHS app library, HSJ understands.
[paywalled]
by alloneword » Mon May 04, 2020 12:23 pm
Revealed: Government's coronavirus tracing app failed key tests on cyber security and privacy
Health officials are to launch pilot version of app on Isle of Wight, urging all Britons to sign up when it becomes national
By Laura Donnelly, Health Editor 4 May 2020 • 5:07pm
NHS chiefs have said high take-up of the app is key to saving lives and helping ease the UK out of its coronavirus lockdown
The Government's coronavirus tracing app has so far failed key tests on cyber security and privacy, it has emerged.
Health officials are to launch a pilot version of the app on the Isle of Wight, urging all Britons to sign up when the scheme becomes national.
NHS chiefs said high take-up of the app is key to saving lives and helping ease the UK out of its coronavirus lockdown, but on Monday it emerged that the product has failed all the standards that would allow it to be included in the health service app library.
The "track and trace" app is expected to be rolled out nationally within weeks, with all adults asked to sign up.
The tracker monitors when phones come into close contact, meaning that when a person logs on with symptoms of possible Covid-19, others who have been in close proximity are alerted to watch out for symptoms.
Health chiefs insist the system is anonymous but allows people to be notified when their risk of exposure to the virus has been increased.
Coronavirus podcast newest episode
On Monday, Matthew Gould, the chief executive of NHSX, the technology arm of the health service, said: "The level of impact of the app does depend on the level of uptake.
"So we're going to mount a really serious campaign to make sure that people know that if they do want to carry on saving lives, protecting the NHS and get the country back on its feet, downloading the app is one way that they can do that."
Officials said the centralised nature of the system will allow them to identify coronavirus "hotspots" and find out more about symptoms and the levels of exposure which increase risk of infection.
But the launch was dealt a major blow as it emerged that the app has so far failed the tests needed for it to gain approval for inclusion in the NHS app library.
Any healthcare app needs to meet certain standards before it is kitemarked, but senior NHS sources told Health Service Journal (HSJ) the app had so far failed all the tests required for inclusion, including cyber security, performance and clinical safety.
The HSJ also reported concerts about how users' privacy will be protected once they log that they have coronavirus symptoms and become "traceable", and how this information will be used. Senior figures told the journal it had been hard to asses the app because the Government was "going about it in a kind of a hamfisted way".
They said that because the app keeps changing it had not been fully tested, they and decsribed it as "a bit wobbly".
The app will use Bluetooth technology to register a "contact" when people come within 6ft of each other for at least 15 minutes. If someone develops virus symptoms, they inform the app and an alert is sent to people they have been in close contact with.
On Monday, the deputy chief medical officer, Jonathan Van Tam, said high take-up of the app was crucial to its success, adding: "We do have some uncertainties about how many people will download the app.
"It will be important that a significant proportion of the population downloads the app for it to have the greatest chance of giving us additional 'oomph' in the contact tracing space, which in turn will give us additional room for manoeuvre in terms of other social distancing easements that we can consider in the weeks and months to come."
Health officials insisted concerns about privacy and security have been addressed, and Mr Gould said: "We've put privacy right at the heart of it and the way it works. The app is designed so that you don't have to give it your personal details to use it. It does ask for the first half of your postcode, but only that.
"So you can use it without giving any other personal details at all. It doesn't know who you are. It doesn't know who you've been near. It doesn't know where you've been – rather, what it does is assigns randomised identifiers to its users."
Mr Gould said all the detail stays on the phone until people become symptomatic and get an option to upload their information. Even when individuals upload their details, those who have been in contact with them would not be given the identify of the person who may have exposed them to risk, he stressed.
Professor Van Tam said there was "significant optimism" that high numbers of people would engage with the app. Officials said it has yet to be decided whether children will be included in the national app.
A spokesman for NHSX said the National Data Guardian panel had been consulted on the plans and the data collected by the app would only be used for NHS care, evaluation and research. An independent assurance board involving experts in mobile apps, data governance and clinical safety has also been set up to monitor production of the app.
The spokesman said apps were not normally assessed for the app store during the earlier stages of testing and, although it has been asked to carry out early assessments already, further reviews would take place after the piloting.
by alloneword » Mon May 04, 2020 2:54 pm
Abstract
The COVID-19 epidemic is believed to have started in late January 2020 in France. We report here a case of a patient hospitalized in December 2019 in our intensive care, of our hospital in the north of Paris, for hemoptysis with no etiological diagnosis and for which RT-PCR was performed retrospectively on the stored respiratory sample which confirmed the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection. Based on this result, it appears that the COVID-19 epidemic started much earlier.
by alloneword » Mon May 04, 2020 6:53 pm
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