Who Killed Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?

[semper occultus]

Maybe I'm turning a little Lebanese.

hmmm..the lyrics would still work

[barracuda]

Hence the need to postpone.

Right, because Erdogan, bin Khalifa and (especially) al- Assad have no interest in what goes down here. They're probably meeting to discuss baking tips.

[AlicetheKurious]

Maybe I'm turning a little Lebanese.

Beware of the dreaded "Robert Fisk" disease. Seriously.

[barracuda]

I doubt there's much danger that I'll become an Islamic fundamentalist.

This is interesting, from Mideast Wire (subscription required):

Al-Akhbar Lebanon, Lebanon

“Junblatt: Sa’d al-Hariri accepted the Saudi-Syrian settlement”

On January 17, the pro-parliamentary minority daily Al-Akhbar carried the following report: “Yesterday evening, Walid Junblatt decided to “spill the beans” that he had been keen on keeping secret from his closest of allies. [Junblatt declared] that Sa’d al-Hariri had accepted the Syrian-Saudi settlement…

“”The decision of the ministers to resign was a political mistake.” This is how the Head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Junblatt, begins to say that Sa’d al-Hariri is the best for the post of PM. Here, the man indicates that the March 14 forces wanted to elect an alternative for Speaker Nabih Birri in 2005, but he refused because Birri was the representative of the Shi’i sect. “Let them appoint Omar Karami, and Sa’d al-Hariri will turn into the only leader for the Sunnis.”

“This point of view that Junblatt holds concurs with a theory adopted by a number of the former opposition figures, and that implies that selecting a PM other than Sa’d al-Hariri will turn the man into an oppressed leader, which will generate a [movement of] solidarity with him. This has started to be used by Ahmad al-Hariri, the Secretary General of the Future Movement, through his calls with the allies of his political movement, and the persons affiliated to it in the Lebanese regions.

“Persons close to Junblatt are saying that he was feeling relaxed yesterday, especially since his Damascus meeting last Saturday with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was a successful one. On this point, Junblatt says that his meeting with Al-Assad “was excellent. We went over several issues and we stressed on the importance of the Syrian-Saudi initiative.” He also described the meeting with Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah as being excellent as well. When asked about the initiative that he carries, he refuses this nomenclature, and says that he is working on applying the clauses of the Syrian-Saudi initiative “especially that it holds clear and important clauses.”

“Here, Walid Junblatt shows surprise when asked about Al-Hariri’s stand concerning this initiative, especially since he had refused it in New York. Junblatt says: “Sa’d al-Hariri had accepted the settlement.” He also indicates that the speech of Nasrallah yesterday was very positive and that the separation of the tracks of the cabinet [formation] and the indictment “opens a major horizon for the consolidation of the Syrian-Saudi initiative.”

“Junblatt, who had met with Speaker Nabih Birri on several instances in the past few days as well as meeting with Prime Minister Sa’d al-Hariri, adds that “he is working for a middle ground solution and for the formation of a cabinet based on this initiative.” He adds: “I support the settlement and the dialogue rather than the provocation…” Junblatt refuses to go through the calculations that this team or that are talking about, concerning the MPs of his bloc, despite all that is being said about Junblatt’s commitment, in front of Al-Assad, to a specific number of MPs in the event that the agreement with Al-Hariri concerning the clauses of the Syrian-Saudi initiative reaches a blocked wall.

“The sources are saying that the number of the MPs is five, while other sources say it is eight. Other sources still say it is six or seven. And according to one of the affiliated persons to Al-Mukhtara’s leader, eight MPs who belong to the Democratic Meeting, including him of course, will commit to Junblatt’s decision…

“Junblatt also commented on the statement of the Head of the Change and Reform Bloc, MP Michel Aoun, during his press conference yesterday – where [Aoun] had directed an advice at the “socialist” leader – by saying: “We accept the advice of General Aoun. However, we hope that we will not return to the lessons of the Liberation war and the Abolition war [both of which were launched by Aoun against the Syrians and the Lebanese Forces respectively] and their costs on the country.”

“The sure thing is that Junblatt’s latest moves…stem from an old caution and concern that Al-Mukhtara’s leader has concerning a Sunni-Shi’i clash or at least a strong Sunni-Shi’i tension. A funny Druze person tells: “Michel Aoun is sitting in Rabiyeh under the protection of Hezbollah. And Samir Geagea is sitting on the top of a hill under the protection of the Future Movement; while we are sitting in Choueifat, and Bshamoun, and Aramoun, and other places, between the Sunni and Shi’i jaws. If any one of them moves, then we will get hurt.”

“Therefore, Junblatt sets off on his political moves by announcing the need to maintain the connection between the Lebanese people. He reiterates that this connection has never been severed during the days of the civil war. This statement means, according to the socialist leader, that he is still working based on the fact that a one-sided government will automatically lead to a clash and that the Druze sect will pay the price… In this context, Junblatt indicates that Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, had previously told him about his concern about a one-sided cabinet.

“In addition, some with ill intentions indicate that Junblatt cannot overcome Al-Hariri because he will be faced by a real problem, and that is the upcoming parliamentary elections “because any bloc facing Al-Mukhtara’s leader, will lead to him losing his parliamentary seat…”

[barracuda]

Warning, Saudi source here (I believe Al Arabiya is partly owned by the Hariri Group):

Hariri tribunal to indict Iran, Hezbollah: reports

Tehran to possibly liquidate Nasrallah : ex-Iran president

French media reported Sunday that the International Lebanon Tribunal will charge Iran and Hezbollah with the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri while former Iranian president Abol Hassan Bani Sadr said Iran is expected to liquidate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah when the report comes out.

The Islamic Revolution, an Iranian opposition newspaper known for its close ties to former Iranian president Abol Hassan Bani Sadr published an article about a French radio report stating that General Qassem Suleimani, head of the Iran's Quds Brigade, affiliated to the elite Revolutionary Guards ordered the late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh to carry out the assassination of Hariri in 2005.

Mughniyeh was killed in 2008 in the Syrian capital Damascus and both Iran and Hezbollah accused the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad of assasinating him.

According to the French report, the assassination of Hariri was assigned to both Mughniyeh and one of his relatives called Mustafa Badr al-Din and the operation was carried out through full coordination between Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards.

Iran, Hezbollah indictment

Former Iranian president Bani Sadr said that according to his sources, both Iran and Hezbollah will be indicted and that explains why Hezbollah has been pressuring Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri to discredit the findings of the special tribunal.

“Saad al-Hariri has been facing so much pressure to stop the tribunal’s investigations, yet he insisted it should resume its work,” Bani Sadr told AlArabiya.net from his exile in the French capital Paris.

Bani Sadr added that he also heard that Hezbollah threatened to stage a coup in Lebanon in case the party is charged with assassinating Hariri.

Bani Sadr learned from his sources that in case Iran is indicted in one way or another and the interests of the regime are jeopardized, there are plans to liquidate Hassan Nasrallah.

Khamenei’s involvement

When asked about reports by Amercian network Fox News stating that the tribunal is likely to indict Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, Bani Sadr said he does not trust Fox news but pointed out the gravity of such an accusation.

“To indict a top official like Khamenei is unprecedented. Iranian officials were indicted before in the Mykonos affair when a Kurdish opposition figures was assassinated, yet they were not of the same rank as Khamenei.”

When asked if Iran’s involvement in Hariri’s assassination implies a direct order from Khamenei and if Khamenei is likely to be involved, Bani Sadr replied that the supreme leader has a history of ordering the assassination of opposition figures.

“According to reliable sources, Khamenei gave his personal approval on the assassination of writers and journalists who opposed the regime. This applies to all political assassinations in Iran.”

Bani Sadr recounted a story he heard from a source close to Khamenei which this source had told the supreme leader that it might not have been necessary to assassinate Iranian writer Dariush Forouhar and his wife.

“To this, Khamenei replied that only someone in his own position could understand the necessity of such an action.”

Bani Sadr stressed that it is not possible that for cricial decisions to be taken by Iranian officials without the knowledge of the supreme leader.

“It is impossible for Iran to play a role in any local, regional, or international issue without the approval of Ayatollah Khamenei. He has the last word in Iran,” he concluded.

[barracuda]

Just for a moment, I'd like to re-examine the post I made on November the 25th, regarding the possible Hezbollah responses to the indictments predicted by Stratfor:

Hezbollah’s plan also calls for all opposition Cabinet members to resign, causing the government to collapse while Hezbollah sows chaos in the streets. The organization would then negotiate with the prime minister, telling him that if he does not denounce the STL then Hezbollah will form a parallel government.

Okay, no chaos in the streets, but otherwise that one's done. Then there was this:

According to the report, should its members face indictments from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) on the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, Hezbollah would seize Beirut within 24 hours. The group would hold its ground for three days or a week at the most while pressuring the Lebanese government and the STL to scrap the tribunal altogether on the grounds that Israel (according to Hezbollah) was behind the al-Hariri murder. Should Hezbollah run into trouble, according to the plan, it would be able to call on the Amal Movement and Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) for help. Though there is little doubt that Hezbollah is rehearsing such plans, the organization’s intensified threats of a Beirut takeover are more likely posturing tactics than a sign of an imminent Hezbollah coup.

...which may be playing out as well:

At around 7AM, groups of young men mysteriously gathered at key intersections and neighborhoods across the Lebanese capital and then disbanded one hour later. Local broadcaster MTV developed an interesting graphic for the story:



After listing each neighborhood where the young men gathered, it then connected the dots to form a rather intimidating net cast over nearly half the city:



According to news reports, members of the opposition such as Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called the gatherings "spontaneous" outbursts of protest against the government, but on today's talk shows, pro-government politicians sarcastically questioned the possible spontaneity of multiple gatherings around the city at 7AM. MTV also said some of the men appeared to be holding walkie talkies.

If accurately reported, the scenario is hauntingly familiar to late 2006, when Hezbollah and its allies marshaled young men equipped with walkie talkies around the prime minister's offices, who, accompanied by tens of thousands of anti-government protestors, easily overwhelmed security forces in the area. The army, fearing a split among its ranks, remained neutral and basically stood and watched for 17 months as boys ruled the streets of the capital.

So perhaps it's possible that occasionally an "organization with deep CIA and other US Intelligence ties, founded and run by a Jewish-American" can be right about some things. But then, so can a stopped clock, I guess.

Also in the news today...

The United Nations tribunal investigating the killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, may seek the help of Interpol to make arrests when its indictment is completed.

“Once we have a confirmed indictment and there is a person or persons named in that indictment as accused, there will be an arrest warrant,” Herman von Hebel, the tribunal’s registrar, said in a phone interview today from Liedschendam, the Netherlands, where the court is based. “We may seek the assistance of Interpol in tracking where persons are and to see whether if we can get them arrested and transferred to the tribunal.”

That's pretty funny, especially if the indictment happens to name Ayatollah Khamenei! And, what next? - they're going to try him in absentia? Absurdity abounds.

[AlicetheKurious]

Warning, Saudi source here (I believe Al Arabiya is partly owned by the Hariri Group):

Tehran to possibly liquidate Nasrallah : ex-Iran president

Fascinating. I've already filed it away.

[barracuda]

Well of course the "liquidation of Nasrallah" part is just wishful thinking. I was more interested in the trial balloon of indictees.

Besides, you filed the Stratfor report in a similar way, I recall, and it turned out to have some useful information, so little by little I'm learning to be wary of that odd filing system of yours.

[AlicetheKurious]

Well of course the "liquidation of Nasrallah" part is just wishful thinking. I was more interested in the trial balloon of indictees.

Besides, you filed the Stratfor report in a similar way, I recall, and it turned out to have some useful information, so little by little I'm learning to be wary of that odd filing system of yours.

You should be wary of sources that provide "some useful information" as bait, mixed with the toxic disinfo that they are propagating.

[barracuda]

Ah! Yes, that's the way of the world, though, isn't it? I'd follow that dictum whether I'm listening to Hariri or Nasrallah, the Israelis or Iranians, or really, just about anyone. Everybody's got an axe to grind, it seems.

[barracuda]

Alright, I'm updating here to try and keep the various strings of this story in place for my own understanding. Here's my take, a brief recap, and how things seem to be playing out at the moment...

The Saudi-Syrian compromise was pretty much in place, but for the negotiation of the details of concessions to be made on each side of the compromise. Nasrallah explained very clearly what his terms were for the deal:

(a) withdraw the Lebanese judges from the STL;

(b) stop Lebanese financing of the STL;

(c) canceling the cooperation agreement between the Lebanese government and the STL.

And according to Jumblatt, Saad Hariri had agreed to these terms, but wanted some concessions from Hezbollah in exchange. What these concessions were is unclear at this point, but they probably had to do with political support of his return as PM, and a degree of disarming within Beruit.

Saad Hariri must have received encouragement from the Americans during his visit with Obama that he needed to hold the line on these concessions, and apparently he did.

However, once Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare submitted the indictments to the Pre-Trial Judge Daniel Fransen on Monday, all bets were off for Hezbollah. The terms of any compromise were voided because Hezbollah needed Hariri to denounce the STL before the indictments were submitted. Once those terms became void, Hezbollah made it clear that they would explicitly refuse to accept Saad Hariri as PM under any circumstances. This put Jumblatt in the position of swinging the votes needed to control the process of the creation of the new government, and he dropped out of March 14, probably in fear of his life, political and otherwise. But without Jumblatt's bloc of votes, neither side has enough to form a government, and at this point even the cohesiveness of his bloc seems to be crumbling.

(One thing certain about Lebanese politics is that political figures get killed with alarming regularity, and it ain't always the Israelis doing the killing.)

So now Hezbollah must find a Sunni for the PM position who they can support, as the Lebanese constitution requires the PM to be a Sunni. So far they seem to be looking at Omar Karami, but his participation is by no means assured, as any Sunni who aligns himself with Hezbollah will probably be seen as a betrayer of his religious kin, as well as standing against Hariri and against finding the assassin of Rafik, as the first chore of any Hezbollah-selected PM will be to denounce the STL along the lines of Nasrallah's three demands. Karami is pro-Syrian, and it seems understood that any March 8 nomination for PM will be a tacit reintroduction of Syria into direct control of Lebanon, or the end of the Cedar Revolution as it was originally constituted.

Saad Hariri gave a speech yesterday in which he rather deftly threw the whole mess back on March 8. He refused to step down from contesting the PM post. He allowed that he will accept any outcome of the consultations by the Lebanese president. And he made it clear that any violence associated with the change of government would not be coming from his side.

Conclusions?

Astonishingly, Saad Hariri comes out of this in good shape anyway you cut it. He may yet be able to return as PM depending upon the votes. But even if he loses the PM position, he is still hugely supported by the Sunni population as his father's son, as the seeker of justice, as the former heir to the revolution. He can always come back in a few years and try again. And the STL will proceed no matter.

More importantly, he has thrown the ball in Nasrallah's court. March 8 may be forced to form a government, a task that Hezbollah probably views with a great degree of trepidation. Although they have been in defacto control of the country in a military sense since 2008, and probably since 2006, this is quite different. How will Israel react? What effect will international sanctions cause, once the STL is fully denounced?

And once the indictments are announced, Hezbollah will be kneecapped by the suspicions which they have helped engender through their endless insistance that the STL must be disqualified. They will be viewed by a huge chunk of the population not as just the murderers of Rafik Hariri, but as a destructive force in Lebnanon generally. They will be scapegoated. In their favor is the general consensus that the STL is an American project, with American aims, and America (plus Israel) is hated by everyone in the region.

It's probably in Nasrallah's best interests to seek to maintain the Lebanese government in a prolonged state of disequilibrium for as long as possible. No government means no official response to the STL. In such a stalemate, only Lebanon loses. In the meantime, travel advisories are up, people are converting their pounds to dollars and withdrawing their money from the banks in advance of the violence which seems sure to come.

[AlicetheKurious]

Neat analysis, barracuda, though based on a highly selective reading of (some of) the facts.

The terms of any compromise were voided because Hezbollah needed Hariri to denounce the STL before the indictments were submitted. Once those terms became void, Hezbollah made it clear that they would explicitly refuse to accept Saad Hariri as PM under any circumstances.[/url]

Not quite. The negotiations were going well, according to both sides' explicit statements at the time, INCLUDING Hariri, UNTIL King Abdullah was forced to travel to the US for medical treatment, where Saad Hariri visited him and where a meeting took place with Hillary Clinton. Suddenly, with no warning, Hariri announced that the negotiations were off. According to Hassan Nasrallah, the Saudi king later explained in a telephone call to Nabih Berri that they had no choice, due to "pressures".

What Nasrallah specifically said was that in the face of such clear-cut evidence, the opposition could not accept for Lebanon a prime minister who was not capable of making decisions on his own, but who took his orders from officials of a foreign state. He also made it clear that the opposition had been willing to work with Hariri for the sake of Lebanon, but that in order to do that, they had been forced to keep silent about a number of issues, including the Hariri camp's refusal to answer any questions or to conduct an investigation into $11 billion that have disappeared from the Lebanese treasury and other matters that they found it difficult to swallow. With Hariri's abrupt announcement that the talks were over, they saw no need to deal with him ever again.

This put Jumblatt in the position of swinging the votes needed to control the process of the creation of the new government, and he dropped out of March 14, probably in fear of his life, political and otherwise. But without Jumblatt's bloc of votes, neither side has enough to form a government, and at this point even the cohesiveness of his bloc seems to be crumbling.

Wrong. Jumblatt dropped out of March 14 all the way back in the summer of 2009, and thus dealt a crippling blow to the so-called "Cedar Revolution" which by that time had been widely exposed as orchestrated by the US. Jumblatt has a finely-tuned sense of which way the wind is blowing: as early as the summer of 2009, he was able to gauge that the American/Israelis and their stooges in Lebanon were blowing it and he switched sides accordingly. It took just over a year longer for Hariri to shake his supporters to the core with his own apology to the Syrians for accusing them of his father's assassination. So much for both the "Cedar Revolution" and the March 14 alliance, which now relies almost totally on American and other foreign support for its continued existence. As for Jumblatt, he's already announced that he "will stand by Syria and the Resistance at this critical and complex phase."

(One thing certain about Lebanese politics is that political figures get killed with alarming regularity, and it ain't always the Israelis doing the killing.)

Oh, but it so often is! In fact, based on sheer numbers of dead and mutilated, the Israelis (not to mention their partners and agents) would win hands down against anybody else, by far. Also, instead of non-existent threats against Jumblatt when he was with March 14, the opposition's choice of prime minister, Omar Karami, has to contend with the all-too-real and unambiguous threats from the true terrorists in Lebanon, especially since he cannot have forgotten what happened to his older brother and former Lebanese Prime Minister Rashid in 1987.

So now Hezbollah must find a Sunni for the PM position who they can support, as the Lebanese constitution requires the PM to be a Sunni. So far they seem to be looking at Omar Karami, but his participation is by no means assured, as any Sunni who aligns himself with Hezbollah will probably be seen as a betrayer of his religious kin, as well as standing against Hariri and against finding the assassin of Rafik, as the first chore of any Hezbollah-selected PM will be to denounce the STL along the lines of Nasrallah's three demands. Karami is pro-Syrian, and it seems understood that any March 8 nomination for PM will be a tacit reintroduction of Syria into direct control of Lebanon, or the end of the Cedar Revolution as it was originally constituted.

The "Cedar Revolution", aka "Gucci Revolution" or Soros revolution or whatever you want to call it, is already a walking corpse, since it has been exposed as a cynical charade that exploited the trauma of the Hariri assassination and the genuine resentment on the part of Lebanese for Syria's heavy-handed interference in Lebanon's political affairs. Those who represent it, the "March 14" camp, have been forced to rely almost entirely on appeals to sectarian loyalty and on reckless sectarian incitement in order to shore up their rapidly disintegrating base. It is Hariri and the March 14 who are enforcing the sickening logic that you acknowledge when you say "any Sunni who aligns himself with Hezbollah will probably be seen as a betrayer of his religious kin" -- this is precisely the kind of toxic rationale that the opposition is united to defeat. As for the STL, with all the information now available, it is simply not sane to view it as anything resembling a genuine, objective investigation into who really assassinated Rafik Hariri.

Saad Hariri gave a speech yesterday in which he rather deftly threw the whole mess back on March 8. He refused to step down from contesting the PM post. He allowed that he will accept any outcome of the consultations by the Lebanese president. And he made it clear that any violence associated with the change of government would not be coming from his side.

Conclusions?

Astonishingly, Saad Hariri comes out of this in good shape anyway you cut it. He may yet be able to return as PM depending upon the votes. But even if he loses the PM position, he is still hugely supported by the Sunni population as his father's son, as the seeker of justice, as the former heir to the revolution. He can always come back in a few years and try again. And the STL will proceed no matter.

First, Saad Hariri can hardly read a speech let alone write one, a subject that has prompted a great deal of bitter hilarity within Lebanon and outside it.

Second, he is a Saudi citizen whose primary residence is in Saudi Arabia, and who spends far more time jetting around the world in luxury than in Lebanon itself, and has not even made the pretense of an attempt to address the urgent economic, political and other, infrastructural issues that matter to most Lebanese. His utter lack of scruple and sense of responsibility was perfectly illustrated by his willingness to paralyse the government for weeks simply because he wanted to avoid the opposition's demand that the evidence against perjurers who had lied to incriminate innocent people be turned over to the judiciary. Imagine.

Third, his father was no national hero: you're mistaking Arabic courtesy that requires speaking well of the dead for a reflection of the truth that everybody knows, even if it's considered inappropriate to talk about. Rafik used his position as prime minister to conspire with the Syrians for decades to bleed Lebanon dry, launching exorbitantly expensive projects that benefited only his cronies, for which his own banks provided loans at high interest rates, saddling Lebanon with enormous debts that it can't begin to repay. (Fouad Siniora, Lebanon's previous prime minister, was employed by Rafik Hariri as CEO of his financial empire that included those same banks that gorged themselves on Lebanon's public treasury). Unlike his dad, however, Saad has neither the intelligence nor the political acumen nor the negotiating skills that made his father a man of substance, if not a man of conscience. Saad in no way earned, but inherited his status as the leading Sunni politician in Lebanon; his political career was tossed to him ready-made by the same explosion that killed his father.

Fourth, his status in the international arena is SOLELY due to his backing by the same country that supplies Israel with the arms and legal and political cover that have allowed it to repeatedly invade Lebanon and murder tens of thousands of Lebanese and that even today boasts about its plan to bomb Lebanon's civilian infrastructure. Even within the United States, the roster of his "fans" consists of some of the most rabid zionists embedded in American diplomatic and government circles. In my book, that makes him a traitor to his country.

Fifth, as has become glaringly obvious, Saad is a tool and has no capacity to make any independent decisions; his actions and choices are dictated to him by his American zionist handlers.

Sixth, Saad has done nothing for Lebanon, or for its people, whether before or after becoming prime minister.

All these factors make him, at best, totally unfit to be prime minister of Lebanon.

The contrast couldn't be greater with the opposition, specifically Hizbullah, on every one of these points (even though Hizbullah does NOT want to rule Lebanon, only to be allowed to defend it, even at great cost to themselves.)

On one side, you have a spoiled billionaire playboy who is backed by some of the most predatory regimes on earth, who has never lifted a finger to defend Lebanon's sovereignty from outside aggression nor evinced any interest in the struggles of ordinary Lebanese, who watched the 2006 Israeli assault against Lebanon on tv from some luxury suite in Europe and has done NOTHING to help the Lebanese people rebuild their lives or pick up the pieces (other than send his father's employee Siniora to beg for more billions in loans from West, much of which have disappeared without a trace on Hariri's watch, although they added significantly to Lebanon's already bloated foreign debt). You have a politician who deliberately exploits and exacerbates sectarian divisions because he has no legitimacy on any other basis, no record of achievements, no other appeal to loyalty.

On the other side, you have Hizbullah, Lebanon's national resistance movement, made up of ordinary men and women who have made enormous sacrifices to defend their country, led by a man with no wealth and no palaces, but whose power is rooted in the respect and admiration that he inspires among people above sectarian and even national boundaries. Unlike Hariri and his "March 14" fellow rich, he does not cynically use clerics who defame their opponents as religious "infidels" or conversely rely on class-warfare to portray their fellow citizens as an uncouth rabble who wouldn't know their Gucci from their Versace. Instead, he speaks of Lebanese as one people, whose responsibility it is to come together to defend their nation and to invest its resources wisely to build it up for all its citizens.

He doesn't just talk the talk, he walks the walk. Like so many in Lebanon's national resistance, Hassan Nasrallah's own first-born son died fighting bravely alongside other ordinary Lebanese struggling to free Lebanon from Israeli occupation, which is why so many poor Lebanese call him "Abu Hadi" ("father of Hadi") to show that they have not forgotten this one of the many sacrifices he has made for Lebanon's sake. The resistance, led by Hizbullah, has used its resources and the donations from other countries, not to set up luxury hotels and shopping malls and line their own leaders' pockets through corrupt and destructive secret deals, as so many in March 14 have done, but to open schools and hospitals and rebuild destroyed neighborhoods for the benefit of Lebanese people of all sects and religions, and to arm and train and equip a guerrilla resistance that has managed to do what all the Arab armies combined were unable to do: force Israel to withdraw unconditionally from land it had occupied. Not once, but twice.

It must be fun to sit wherever you sit, and issue your blithe pronouncements and judgments about matters which must be slightly less real to you than the latest episode of whatever show you like on tv. How would you know about what "a large chunk of the population" in Lebanon feels or how it views Hezbullah, or the reality of the threat represented by the STL and the forces behind it against the country where they live and have their homes and families? Still less what Hizbullah "would view with a great degree of trepidation?" Now you can read the minds of Lebanon's resistance leaders because you read one or two English-language blogs mostly written by Hariri supporters? Can you acknowledge that you bring to your analysis only a very, very superficial understanding of the situation and the people involved and the lives and futures that hang in the balance?

This reminds me of the old joke about a guy crawling around underneath a street lamp. A passerby asks him what he's doing, and he says he's dropped a contact lens and is looking for it. The passerby asks him if he's sure he was standing right there when it fell, and the guy answers, "No, I was standing near those bushes over there." The passerby asks him why he's looking under the streetlamp, if he dropped the lens near the bushes, and the guy answers, "Because the light's better over here."

[barracuda]

Can you acknowledge that you bring to your analysis only a very, very superficial understanding of the situation and the people involved and the lives and futures that hang in the balance?

You don't have to be that way, Alice - I acknowledge that unreservedly. I primarily posted my take above in order to draw you out of the woodwork and hear your opinion, with the complete understanding that my own view is woefully inadequate. My interest in the situation in Lebanon comes from my belief in the centrality of their political moment to wider events throughout the region and the world that will undoubtably affect us all as they unfold, as well as my sympathy for the residents of the place. I don't watch tv, but I do to a real extent rely upon your perspective.

[AlicetheKurious]

Oh, I get it, you're trying to confuse me by going all reasonable and humble on me.

( )

[AlicetheKurious]

Hahahahahahahahaha

Mikati for Premiership
BEIRUT | AFP / iloubnan.info - January 24, 2011
Following the statement of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, a new candidacy for premiership was announced, late Sunday evening.



Former prime minister Najib Mikati announced his candidacy in the fierce battle between rival parties in Lebanon as to who should head the country's next government. Mikati, a telecoms tycoon, said in a statement lissued by his media office that he was coming forward as a consensual candidate and would cooperate with all parties with a view to bringing the country out of its deep political crisis.

Mikati called in his statement for “solidarity among all Lebanese to bring the country out of this crisis.”

"I don't view my candidacy as a challenge to anyone but rather as an opportunity to restore contacts among (rival) leaders," his statement said.

But members of caretaker Prime Minister Saad Hariri's coalition said they viewed Mikati's candidacy as "treason" given that he was elected to parliament as a member of Hariri's coalition.

"This is treason, he is back-stabbing Hariri," MP Oqab Sakr told Lebanese radio.

Mikati's announcement came hours before President Michel Sleiman was to launch consultations with parliamentary groups Monday on appointing a new premier after the powerful Hezbollah brought down Hariri's unity government earlier this month.

The Western-backed Hariri has been locked in a months-long standoff with Hezbollah, backed by Syria and Iran, over a UN probe into the 2005 assassination of ex-premier Rafiq Hariri, Saad's father.

Mikati served as premier for three months in 2005 after Syria was forced to withdraw its troops from Lebanon following Hariri's assassination. Link