Arctic Updates

[Cosmic Cowbell]

It's important to understand that we're coming off one of the coldest winters in the northern hemisphere, most likely attributed to a 50 year low in the arctic oscillation pattern. Ignore the white (snow or ice covered land masses) as it means nothing here wrt Sea Ice Extents, which is the purpose of the graphics.

There's a fairly cool (heh) animation covering 1976 through the present found on the main page of the site.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... 8-2006.mov

[Ben D]

It's important to understand that we're coming off one of the coldest winters in the northern hemisphere, most likely attributed to a 50 year low in the arctic oscillation pattern. Ignore the white (snow or ice covered land masses) as it means nothing here wrt Sea Ice Extents, which is the purpose of the graphics.

Yes Cosmic Cowbell, the ice and snow covered land extent present now does show what a cold and long winter it was in the northern hemisphere this year, it must have been quite a mild and short winter in 1980.

However to the Sea Ice Extents, though the 2010 and 1980 extents for this time of the year is nearly the same (1980 appears to just pip 2010), you will note that on average the concentration of the sea ice extent appears greater now than in 1980.

Anyway in any event it good news to see increased Arctic ice extent and good for the polar bears too.

[Cosmic Cowbell]

It's important to understand that we're coming off one of the coldest winters in the northern hemisphere, most likely attributed to a 50 year low in the arctic oscillation pattern. Ignore the white (snow or ice covered land masses) as it means nothing here wrt Sea Ice Extents, which is the purpose of the graphics.

Yes Cosmic Cowbell, the ice and snow covered land extent present now does show what a cold and long winter it was in the northern hemisphere this year, it must have been quite a mild and short winter in 1980.

However to the Sea Ice Extents, though the 2010 and 1980 extents for this time of the year is nearly the same (1980 appears to just pip 2010), you will note that on average the concentration of the sea ice extent appears greater now than in 1980.

Anyway in any event it good news to see increased Arctic ice extent and good for the polar bears too.

Not necessarily. If we are only close or even to, in 2010, the Sea Ice extents of the 80's after an anomalous 50 year low in the Arctic oscillation patterns, one has to wonder what the comparison would be like had it NOT occurred. As for Polar Bears, it's in late summer that one has to look for enough ice to sustain their hunting patterns/habits. One also has to consider the quality of the ice re: the animation I posted a link to above...

"The 40Mb animation at the left shows the 2007 dramatic loss of multiyear sea ice throughout the year. Multiyear sea ice is older and generally thicker ice - sea ice that has survived at least one melt season (shown in brighter white). "



It would be wise for some to take a longer view in order to grok the problem. That said, the posting of this resource is appreciated.

[wintler2]

Arctic sea ice extent may be larger than in some recent years, but the ice is thinner and younger, melts sooner into summer, wont support polar bears or walrus or sleds, etc.

..The late date of the maximum extent, though of special interest this year, is unlikely to have an impact on summer ice extent. The ice that formed late in the season is thin, and will melt quickly when temperatures rise.
Scientists often use ice age data as a way to infer ice thickness—one of the most important factors influencing end-of-summer ice extent. Although the Arctic has much less thick, multiyear ice than it did during the 1980s and 1990s, this winter has seen some replenishment: the Arctic lost less ice the past two summers compared to 2007, and the strong negative Arctic Oscillation this winter prevented as much ice from moving out of the Arctic. The larger amount of multiyear ice could help more ice to survive the summer melt season. However, this replenishment consists primarily of younger, two- to three-year-old multiyear ice; the oldest, and thickest multiyear ice has continued to decline. Although thickness plays an important role in ice melt, summer ice conditions will also depend strongly on weather patterns through the melt season. ..
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

or
Arctic Literally On Thin Ice, According To New Satellite Data

or
Older Arctic Sea Ice Replaced By Young, Thin Ice

I guess you can't believe anything from NewsCorp (megacorp propaganda warning)

[norton ash]

Yes, the whole northern hemisphere's been extra-cold this year! Bollocks.

Warmest, driest winter in Canadian record books, Environment Canada says

Canwest News Service March 10, 2010

From the balmy Arctic and snowless Western fields to the open water of the St. Lawrence, this winter has been the warmest and driest in Canadian record books, Environment Canada says. Winter 2009/10 was 4C above normal, making it the warmest since nationwide records were first kept in 1948, Environment Canada scientists say. It was also the driest winter on the 63-year record, with precipitation 22% below normal nationally, and down 60% in parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario. "It is truly a remarkable situation," David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, told Canwest News yesterday. Records have been shattered from "coast to coast to coast," he said. While much of Asia, Europe and the United States shivered through freak winter storms, Canada was left on the sidelines, Mr. Phillips said.

[Cosmic Cowbell]

Hope this helps...

Frozen In France? Thank The Arctic Oscillation



Clearing snow in Scotland. Andrew Milligan/AP
Enlarge Andrew Milligan/Press Association via AP

The prolonged Arctic blast is now the worst cold spell seen in Scotland for almost 50 years, according to the country's first minister.
Clearing snow in Scotland.

The prolonged Arctic blast is now the worst cold spell seen in Scotland for almost 50 years, according to the country's first minister.

January 16, 2010

This winter, many Brits have been shivering through their coldest cold snap in 30 years. Beijing's residents witnessed their city's biggest one-day snowfall in nearly 60 years. And on a flight from Dallas to Washington, D.C., an All Things Considered producer encountered a headwind strong enough to delay his plane. That's uncommon, because the wind usually blows the other direction. So what's behind all this unusual weather? According to Mark Serreze, it's the Arctic Oscillation.

Serreze is the director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder. He tells host Guy Raz that the Arctic Oscillation is basically "just a honking big weather pattern. And it's rather unpredictable." In more scientific terms, the Arctic Oscillation refers to shifts in atmospheric pressure over the Arctic and the middle latitudes of the earth. In its positive phase, atmospheric pressure decreases over the Arctic and increases over the mid-latitudes. In the Arctic Oscillation's negative phase, it's just the reverse. Pressures are relatively high over the Arctic and relatively low over the mid-latitudes.

In December, the Arctic Oscillation went into extreme negative mode — more negative than it's been since at least 1950. Serreze says that has affected weather all over the Northern Hemisphere.
"At the very same time that we've seen these areas in the middle latitudes with sub-zero temperatures and big snow storms, the Arctic has been much, much warmer than normal." Ten to fifteen degrees warmer in some places. According to Serreze, the shift in the Arctic Oscillation has nothing to do with climate change and everything to do with the vagaries of weather. At the same time, he says, the chances of going so negative are exceedingly small.

"It would be like if you had a deck of cards and you told someone, 'Well, I'm going to pull the ace of spades out of here.'" And you actually did it, right? Well, having us going through this extreme negative mode is even more rare than something like that." Serreze says he can't yet predict the effect of balmier Arctic temperatures on that region's ice melt. He notes that when the Arctic is warm, less ice grows in the winter. On the other hand, he says, the wind patterns associated with the Arctic Oscillation's negative phase actually keep ice in the Arctic, rather than transporting it to the North Atlantic, where it would melt.

Though the situation will become clearer this spring, Serreze fears that the result of these competing effects will still be bad for the region. He says the extent of Arctic sea ice is already a million square kilometers below normal. (note: This was in January- ~C)

http://ww.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122649916

Bottom line, you really can't compare the Arctic events (or imagery) of 1979/80 with the Arctic events of 2009/10, due to this anomaly in the AO.

[Ben D]

It would be wise for some to take a longer view in order to grok the problem. That said, the posting of this resource is appreciated.

Thank you CC, and agree with your comment about taking the longer view, that's exactly what my position is,..the waters have become very muddied at this present time.

Re your comment,."Bottom line, you really can't compare the Arctic events (or imagery) of 1979/80 with the Arctic events of 2009/10, due to this anomaly in the AO.".
Actually the 1980 - 2010 pair of images just happened to be the setting when I went to the site and was posted merely as an example. Yes, though I can't claim any deep understanding of the OA, it seems clear that it is connected with the colder than recent and extended winter. The question that arises in my mind what caused the anomaly,..oh so much to learn and so little time!

[Ben D]

Oh and talking about muddy waters, the incessant claims and counter claims keep coming and it seems clear that pure objective science is not the basis of everyone's agenda.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100423/158714403.html

Arctic research may be threatened by global cooling - scientist

Research for mineral resources in the Arctic may be hampered by a global trend towards colder weather rather than global warming, a Russian scientist said on Friday.
Prof. Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) said the cold snap began in 1998 and the temperatures are predicted to return to the lows of the 1950s-1960s and reach their peak in 15 years.

Despite the predictions of global warming, which has been the greatest economic and political challenge, most parts of the world have recently seen widespread low temperatures and extremely heavy snowfalls.

"Now all the components of the climate system are entering the negative phase. Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose the pot," Pokrovsky said at a conference on marine research in the Polar regions.

The scientist explains the possible climate miscalculation by the fact that most meteorological stations in the United States are located in urban areas which are affected by the city's microclimate where the temperature is usually higher. "We do not know everything that happens. The climate system is extremely complicated and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is not the highest authority," Pokrovsky said.

The scientist has warned, however, that global cooling could jeopardize the race of world powers for the largely unexplored mineral resources in the Arctic, which has recently intensified. "The northern marine passage will freeze and it will be impossible to pass through it without icebreakers," Pokrovsky said. "I think the development of the shelf will face large problems," he added.

[Ben D]

Yes, the whole northern hemisphere's been extra-cold this year! Bollocks.

Thank you norton ash, I really wasn't aware that the Canadian winter generally was much warmer than average this year. I can understand why you seemed surprised at the image showing such extensive snow and ice extent in the northern hemisphere. It appears Canada generally (and no doubt some other places) were anomalies to the general northern hemisphere picture of an overall colder and longer winter compared to recent ones.

[wintler2]

Oh and talking about muddy waters, the incessant claims and counter claims keep coming and it seems clear that pure objective science is not the basis of everyone's agenda.

Quack quack quack.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100423/158714403.html

Arctic research may be threatened by global cooling - scientist

Research for mineral resources in the Arctic may be hampered by a global trend towards colder weather rather than global warming, a Russian scientist said on Friday.
Prof. Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO) said the cold snap began in 1998 and the temperatures are predicted to return to the lows of the 1950s-1960s and reach their peak in 15 years.
..

The guy is on drugs, or put up to it. The Arctic has been observed to warm faster than the rest of the planet for the last 15 years, not cooling as he claims.

Arctic-wide annual averaged surface air temperature anomalies (60°–90°N) based on land stations north of 60°N relative to the 1961–90 mean. From the CRUTEM 3v dataset, (available online at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/. Note this curve does not include ship observations.

If BenD has evidence otherwise perhaps he could present it.

[Hammer of Los]

A combative style of debate helps nobody. I would like to thank everyone here for their valuable contributions, especially wintler2, who always provides me with a lot of information.

The problem is, we should go see who this Prof. Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory really is. Is he legitimate, or is he "on drugs or put up to it?" Come on, someone go do the leg work. I'm busy with the laundry. Is his main contention that the data is unreliable because of local urban microclimates at or near the temp. stations?

http://www.climate-development.org/atroccoli/nato_arw/arw_book/Climate_Energy_Book_Troccoli_CH19_Pokrovsky.pdf

There's a million google references to him, but all over the identical UPI story, which is, perhaps not surprisingly, spreading like wildfire. UPI is helping the Russians to combat global warming apologists? That's very interesting.

About UPI

Since 1907, United Press International (UPI) has been a leading provider of critical information to media outlets, businesses, governments and researchers worldwide. UPI is a global operation with offices in Beirut, Hong Kong, London, Santiago, Seoul and Tokyo. Our headquarters is located in downtown Washington, DC, surrounded by major international policy-making governmental and non-governmental organizations.

Online News Products

UPI offers a wide range of products in both news brief and analysis formats. Our three “Premium” news channels include Emerging Threats, Energy Resources, and Security Industry.

UPI are very international. They cater to european countries, n. and s. america, and the middle and far east. They do give the appearance of some independence. They cartainly have an interesting choice of topics for their three "premium" online news services.

Aren't I allowed to be a little sceptical of catastrophism though? Haven't you people ever seen "The Power of Nightmares?" All I ever got off the internet was catastrophism;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophism

Why no mention of climate catastrophism on that page though? I mean, we are warned constantly about catastrophic climate change. I guess they don't want to associate it with Velikovsky or Planet X.



Looking for quotes of climate change catastrophe, I found the marvellous http://www.greenlivingpedia.org, apparently they are "a free resource for sharing information on green living, now and for the future." Sounds nice. They have a very good list of climate change quotes (http://www.greenlivingpedia.org/Climate_change_quotes), and the sources of those quotes are possibly even more interesting, Al Gore, Barack Obama, The Dalai Lama, Dr Jay Zwally of NASA, Bill Clinton, Prince Charles, Ban ki Moon, Sir Nicholas Stern (from wiki; "Stern is the son of the late Bert Stern and Marion Stern and nephew of Donald Swann—half of the Flanders and Swann partnership. Richard Stern, former Vice-President, World Bank, and Brian E Stern, former Vice-President Xerox Corporation, are his brothers. He was the Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank from 2000 to 2003."), and yes, that man again, Rupert Murdoch, who is quoted as saying ""Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats." That's why the page showed up when I googled "catastrophic climate change." Funny how that works. Synchronicity? At any rate, I wouldn't buy anything any of those particular individuals are selling.

I find it somewhat puzzling though, that the Spectator has gone all climate sceptic. Very puzzling, actually. It's them spooky Lawsons. I really don't like the way climate scepticism is being associated with conservatism. It feels all wrong. Probably some sort of double bind op, I'm guessing. I'm hoping that if climate change catastrophism starts to unravel a little, it doesn't somehow end up proving advantageous to the conservatives, or the polluting industries. I think they are keeping their options open. Oh, and by the way, I'm not a climate change sceptic, I'm a climate change agnostic. Actually, I'm rather interested in the subject. Personally, I feel subjectively that the sun's rays feel warmer on my skin now, than they did decades ago, probably due to the erosion of the ozone layer, I'm not sure.

I don't have a pony in this race really. It's just kinda fascinating, you know? Repeat after me, the NWO are the good guys. I apologise in advance if I have offended anyone in posting this entirely speculative, non-partisan, account of my researches. I have no answers, only questions, you see. Please don't troll me. Thank you.

ps Don't you just love open source intel?

[compared2what?]

A combative style of debate helps nobody. I would like to thank everyone here for their valuable contributions, especially wintler2, who always provides me with a lot of information.

The problem is, we should go see who this Prof. Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory really is. Is he legitimate, or is he "on drugs or put up to it?" Come on, someone go do the leg work. I'm busy with the laundry. Is his main contention that the data is unreliable because of local urban microclimates at or near the temp. stations?

http://www.climate-development.org/atroccoli/nato_arw/arw_book/Climate_Energy_Book_Troccoli_CH19_Pokrovsky.pdf

There's a million google references to him, but all over the identical UPI story, which is, perhaps not surprisingly, spreading like wildfire. UPI is helping the Russians to combat global warming apologists? That's very interesting.

About UPI

Since 1907, United Press International (UPI) has been a leading provider of critical information to media outlets, businesses, governments and researchers worldwide. UPI is a global operation with offices in Beirut, Hong Kong, London, Santiago, Seoul and Tokyo. Our headquarters is located in downtown Washington, DC, surrounded by major international policy-making governmental and non-governmental organizations.

Online News Products

UPI offers a wide range of products in both news brief and analysis formats. Our three “Premium” news channels include Emerging Threats, Energy Resources, and Security Industry.

UPI are very international. They cater to european countries, n. and s. america, and the middle and far east. They do give the appearance of some independence. They cartainly have an interesting choice of topics for their three "premium" online news services.

Another point of information that's really kind of key wrt to the reliability of the source in this case is that UPI is a part of the Moonie media empire.

Aren't I allowed to be a little sceptical of catastrophism though? Haven't you people ever seen "The Power of Nightmares?" All I ever got off the internet was catastrophism;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophism

Why no mention of climate catastrophism on that page though? I mean, we are warned constantly about catastrophic climate change. I guess they don't want to associate it with Velikovsky or Planet X.



Looking for quotes of climate change catastrophe, I found the marvellous http://www.greenlivingpedia.org, apparently they are "a free resource for sharing information on green living, now and for the future." Sounds nice. They have a very good list of climate change quotes (http://www.greenlivingpedia.org/Climate_change_quotes), and the sources of those quotes are possibly even more interesting, Al Gore, Barack Obama, The Dalai Lama, Dr Jay Zwally of NASA, Bill Clinton, Prince Charles, Ban ki Moon, Sir Nicholas Stern (from wiki; "Stern is the son of the late Bert Stern and Marion Stern and nephew of Donald Swann—half of the Flanders and Swann partnership. Richard Stern, former Vice-President, World Bank, and Brian E Stern, former Vice-President Xerox Corporation, are his brothers. He was the Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank from 2000 to 2003."), and yes, that man again, Rupert Murdoch, who is quoted as saying ""Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats." That's why the page showed up when I googled "catastrophic climate change." Funny how that works. Synchronicity? At any rate, I wouldn't buy anything any of those particular individuals are selling.

I find it somewhat puzzling though, that the Spectator has gone all climate sceptic. Very puzzling, actually. It's them spooky Lawsons. I really don't like the way climate scepticism is being associated with conservatism. It feels all wrong. Probably some sort of double bind op, I'm guessing. I'm hoping that if climate change catastrophism starts to unravel a little, it doesn't somehow end up proving advantageous to the conservatives, or the polluting industries. I think they are keeping their options open. Oh, and by the way, I'm not a climate change sceptic, I'm a climate change agnostic. Actually, I'm rather interested in the subject. Personally, I feel subjectively that the sun's rays feel warmer on my skin now, than they did decades ago, probably due to the erosion of the ozone layer, I'm not sure.

I don't have a pony in this race really. It's just kinda fascinating, you know? Repeat after me, the NWO are the good guys. I apologise in advance if I have offended anyone in posting this entirely speculative, non-partisan, account of my researches. I have no answers, only questions, you see. Please don't troll me. Thank you.

ps Don't you just love open source intel?

Speaking for myself, yes.

[Hammer of Los]

Another point of information that's really kind of key wrt to the reliability of the source in this case is that UPI is a part of the Moonie media empire.

Thank you very much for the valuable information.

In 2000, UPI was purchased by News World Communications, a media company owned by Sun Myung Moon's Unification Church.

Well, there you go.

And UPI do indeed have good words to say about that anti communist cult leader, arch capitalist and Bush associate;

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/International/2009/10/14/Rev-Moon-performs-50th-mass-marriage/UPI-60261255525208/

Ok, that's the source dirtied. What can we dig up on the Russian scientist? Is he really legit, or a bit dodgy?

[Ben D]

You posted last years data Wintler2, so here is an Arctic Update. You will be pleased to note that 2nd and beyond year old ice has increased.

[Iamwhomiam]

Yeah, just like in 98. I think your on to something Ben. Great researching that. Gives me the chills just thinking about it, how about you?