12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby anothershamus » Fri Apr 01, 2011 12:53 am

From Ty full text and bonus video over here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wal-ma ... -inflation

Wal-Mart US CEO To America: "Prepare For Serious Inflation"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/31/2011 12:32 -0400


To those who think that buying food in the corner deli is becoming a luxury, we have five words: you ain't seen nuthin' yet. U.S. consumers face "serious" inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. operations warned Wednesday talking to USA Today. And if Wal-Mart which is at the very bottom of commoditized consumer retail, and at the very peak of avoiding reexporting of US inflation by way of China is concerned, it may be time to panic, or at least cancel those plane tickets to Zimbabwe, which is soon coming to us.
)'(
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby compared2what? » Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:40 am

freemason9 wrote:food prices and energy prices are highly volatile and are not normally considered as reliable measures of inflation.

per economic definition, we are not in an inflationary environment.

yes, some prices are higher; that, however, is not the definition of inflation


Thank you. I agree with you.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby compared2what? » Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:41 am

Nordic wrote:C2W, what are you SMOKING?

You're actually looking at the CPI for signs of inflation? Do you actually keep yourself informed about what's going on in the world?

I mean, c'mon.

Food prices have hit higher prices since the disastrous level of 2008.

I shouldn't even have to link this for you.

But here, just today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/wal-ma ... -inflation


I do actually keep myself informed about what's going on in the world. And I noted back around when Obama was elected that all the corporate oligarchs started shrieking about how we had to prepare for serious inflation, by which they meant:

"OMG, deficit spending must be cut for no very clear reason that we can explain! Get rid of social security!"

Times are hard. Very, very hard. And it's my opinion that economically, they're going to be getting much, much worse -- although that's just my opinion, not a prediction.

I'm sorry that you don't like the Consumer Price Index. If you want, I can link to one of the other ones. But whether you look at Producer Price Index numbers, or Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index numbers, or real GDP numbers, or unemployment numbers, or any set of numbers you care to name that can be indexed and used as a measure of inflation, you'll see the exact same thing everywhere:

Overall, the economy is flat and inflation is minimal.

But in reality, the middle class is disappearing and we're headed back to a pre-Great-Society, pre-New-Deal, pre-basically-World-War-One three-tiered economy, with (a) few robber barons; (b) a modestly sized but highly competitive pool of professional/managerial class; and (c) teeming masses and masses of people who probably won't have any better longterm prospects than they can find at some point on the continuum between economically insecure and desperately impoverished.

That's been happening slowly but noticeably for the last decade-and-a-half or so, it was just concealed by two nearly back-to-back bubbles (dot.com and real estate). Apart from those (and before them, too, actually) people have been having a harder and harder time making a living roughly since Reagan left office.

That's partly because Reagan set up the economy to die a slow and lingering death via stuff like deregulation, and defunding public education, and making it the new universally accepted common wisdom that raising taxes is always an unalloyed evil, and so on and so forth. And it's partly because pretty much every successive administration (w/ the arguable exception of the Bush Sr. presidency, go figure) has been fully on-board with the exact same enriching-the-rich/destroying-the-foundations-of-social-equity agenda ever since.

Clinton contributed NAFTA and got rid of welfare, for example. And apart from consolidating and expanding on his predecessor's legacy, by this point, Obama appears to be absolutely determined to deal some kind of lethal blow to Social Security and health care/Medicare, come hell or high water. But he actually started to show signs of that in his first State of the Union, IIRC. (I think I even may have commented on it in passing in a post at the time, by saying that it seemed striking to me that he didn't mention protecting SS or Medicare or something like that.)

Anyway. If you want to see what's going on with your own eyes in a little more detail, this here link will take you to one of those Google graphification thingies we all enjoy so much, which you can twiddle around with to see rates of growth (or non-growth) in the trends they use to calculate real GDP -- compensation of employees, personal income per capita, disposable income, taxes and subsidies, and [blah, blah, blah].

It only goes up to 2008, but things haven't changed all that much since then, they've just continued to rot slowly.

Let me know if I've overlooked some particular inflationary measure that's meaningful to you, and I'll try to find it for you. I do know that corporate profits had been up for a number of consecutive quarters, last time I looked, fwiw. Because that's not in the figures I linked to at all, at least per se.

You might want to get caught up on this subject.


I keep an eye on it.

Also, "worthless gold?" It's fiat currency that's worthless. Gold has always been money and always will be.


I said "worthless gold and silver coins," not "worthless gold." And I didn't mean it literally. They actually have negative worth, once you subtract what you paid for them from what the pawnbroker would pay you for the meltdown value.

I don't know if that applies to the gold and silver coin vendors that the NIA is pushing, I should add. I'll go check and report back to you after I have.

It does apply to the one Glenn Beck pushes, though. There's a nice infographic about those with additional links here. But it's a pretty common scam, they're not the only ones.

Let's just agree to disagree.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby compared2what? » Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:46 am

I guess I should have said explicitly:

THERE ARE TERRIBLE THINGS HAPPENING TO THE ECONOMY, BUT HYPER-INFLATION ISN'T ONE OF THEM RIGHT NOW.

THE GUY FROM WAL*MART AND HIS ILK ARE RUNNING AROUND SAYING THAT BECAUSE THEY WANT TO INDUCE A PANIC THAT WILL ENABLE THEM TO GUT WHAT'S LEFT OF THE SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

IT'S ANOTHER PLAY FROM THE SAME KOCH BROTHERS GAME WE'VE JUST BEEN SEEING IN WISCONSIN, BASICALLY.

OR, IN ONLY THREE SHORT WORDS:

IT'S A PSI-OP.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby barracuda » Fri Apr 01, 2011 1:58 am

Some real warning signs of hyperinflation:

    - All your close friends are billionaires.

    - You paid off your mortgage yesterday, but now you're saddled with a 30 year ARM for a stick of butter.

    - You bought a new car with canned goods and your last decent leather jacket.

    - Those four huge boxes in the kids' room that you have to walk around everyday contain their last week's allowance.

    - The money you got from the ATM has an engraved portrait of Rand Paul on the recto.

    - Most of your daily expenses must be paid for with packs of cigarettes.

    - "Fungible" has replaced "fresh" as a descriptive term applicable to baked goods.

Call me with the hyperinflation talk when some of these symptoms appear on the horizon. Until then, it's the same song the same folks have been singing ever since Lehman Brothers folded because they ran out of money.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby compared2what? » Fri Apr 01, 2011 2:09 am

I can't wait for someone to tell me I'm too verbose for having known that what's happening to the economy isn't inflation and thinking that it was an important distinction to make.

Sigh.

Just for the record, the reason I think that is that the mega-rich are relying on there being enough people who neither know nor care why "inflation" and "massive economic depression" aren't interchangeable phrases for them to be kept too distracted by their fears of what isn't happening to notice what is in time to do anything about it.

IOW: I'm not bickering because I'm an unpleasant person. I'm just trying to prevent as much apocalypse as I can.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby compared2what? » Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:19 am

I just checked the first ten gold and silver picks listed at the NIA site, then lost the post with all the painstakingly linked and quoted information in it.

But long story short:

* Seven of them (actually including Goldline, Glenn Beck's only remaining advertiser!; see link above) are super-hard-selling bullion coin dealers that are chasing people all over the internet from 1,001 domain names so that they can -- somewhat paradoxically -- tell them what a FABULOUS AND CAN'T-MISS investment bullion coins are, after which some of those people file bitter complaints with the FTC and/or the Better Business Bureau about all kinds of things.

* Two of them are exactly like the above, except that they have no outstanding complaints against them that showed up on a simple search.

* One of them's a silver mining company in Mexico, which actually looks like a good investment. However, they're destroying land that's belonged to indigenous peoples since (who knows when?), including its most sacred site.


Is that enough?

I certainly hope so.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby Nordic » Fri Apr 01, 2011 4:24 am

Jesus christ, you call any of that rigorous? Just because certain scamsters are selling gold means that gold is worthless?

That's like saying sex has no value because some people are rapists. Makes no fucking sense whatsoever.

And the only reason "inflation" seems "flat" to you is because the housing bubble collapsed, and continues to collapse, thereby offsetting to a great degree the very real INFLATION that is going on around us. Do you actually buy any food? Gas? Housing? Anything other than flatscreen TV's and residential real estate??

Aren't you aware that the government has spent the last 30 years tweaking how they figure inflation? Ever since the 70's, when we had the last real bout of it? Because they don't want people to actually KNOW that the value of their money is declining, and rapidly? You might want to look into that. I don't care if you're talking about the PPI, the CPI, it doesn't fucking matter, those are government numbers using government formulas, and they're all bogus.

I'm just stupefied that we're even having this conversation. I feel like I'm back at Dailykos or something.

Sheesh.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby barracuda » Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:46 am

Nordic wrote:Jesus christ, you call any of that rigorous? Just because certain scamsters are selling gold means that gold is worthless?

That's like saying sex has no value because some people are rapists. Makes no fucking sense whatsoever.


That's the second time you've deliberately mischaracterised c2w's statements regarding the value of gold coins. It's basically a troll move.

I'm just stupefied that we're even having this conversation. I feel like I'm back at Dailykos or something.


I feel like I'm reading someone who thinks Zerohedge is a social justice website.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby justdrew » Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:55 am

the thing about gold is, is the absence of a prevailing social order, how would value be established? and how would someone just taking it be prevented?

I'd rather have a working farm and solar installation than gold. tangible assets doesn't have to mean gold/silver. (not that I'm going to be getting either) Or a horse. or a good bow, a fishing system. etc...

there is some modest inflation, but most of the things going up are price controlled by the SAME voices now warning about inflation. If not price controlled, then influenced, as by commodity speculation. which needs to be outlawed and enforced.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby norton ash » Fri Apr 01, 2011 11:39 am

the thing about gold is, is the absence of a prevailing social order, how would value be established? and how would someone just taking it be prevented?


1) Beans, rice, spam, vitamins, shelter. Number of folks who support each other.
2) Hiding it, dogs, perimeter security, locks, guns, negotiation.

In the absence of a prevailing social order, fuck the Krugerands.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby seemslikeadream » Fri Apr 01, 2011 11:42 am

^^^^^^^^

Eat the rich

Spam in a can
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby justdrew » Fri Apr 01, 2011 11:49 am

seemslikeadream wrote:^^^^^^^^

Eat the rich

Spam in a can


eh, you can have my share. they're all gristle.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby seemslikeadream » Fri Apr 01, 2011 12:03 pm

justdrew wrote:
seemslikeadream wrote:^^^^^^^^

Eat the rich

Spam in a can


eh, you can have my share. they're all gristle.




eat as in

consume [kənˈsjuːm]
vb

to use up; expend my car consumes little oil
to destroy or be destroyed by burning, decomposition, etc. fire consumed the forest
to waste or squander the time consumed on that project was excessive
to waste away
[from Latin consūmere to devour, from com- (intensive) + sūmere to take up, from emere to take, purchase]
Last edited by seemslikeadream on Fri Apr 01, 2011 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 12 Warning Signs of U.S. Hyperinflation

Postby anothershamus » Fri Apr 01, 2011 12:03 pm

compared2what? wrote:I just checked the first ten gold and silver picks listed at the NIA site, then lost the post with all the painstakingly linked and quoted information in it.

But long story short:

* Seven of them (actually including Goldline, Glenn Beck's only remaining advertiser!; see link above) are super-hard-selling bullion coin dealers that are chasing people all over the internet from 1,001 domain names so that they can -- somewhat paradoxically -- tell them what a FABULOUS AND CAN'T-MISS investment bullion coins are, after which some of those people file bitter complaints with the FTC and/or the Better Business Bureau about all kinds of things.

* Two of them are exactly like the above, except that they have no outstanding complaints against them that showed up on a simple search.

* One of them's a silver mining company in Mexico, which actually looks like a good investment. However, they're destroying land that's belonged to indigenous peoples since (who knows when?), including its most sacred site.


Is that enough?

I certainly hope so.


First off, anything to do with Glen Beck is going to be a rip off!
If you bought 'numismatic' coins, (coins with a collector value on top of their metal value)
you can only sell at the same price, to another collector. Glen Beck's company is offering to buy those 'collector coins' for a fraction of their metal value, thus the rip-off. A reputable metal dealer or jeweler, will offer just a couple of dollars off spot and sell for a couple of dollars off spot, and they may or may not deal with 'collector coin value'. Buyer and seller beware.

If you look at bullion gold and silver,
at their 2002 levels, around $300, and around $4, respectively,
verses now at around $1430, and $35, respectively.
It's hard to deny that inflation is described by these values.



On Edit, here is a new one from Zerohedge:
Inflation Expectations 2010 And 2011: Compare And Contrast

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/01/2011 11:07



With all the rhetoric about the "self sustaining" recovery, some may forget that back in early 2010 we went through exactly the same song and dance. As we pointed out recently, comparing speeches by James Bullard showed absolutely no difference from the end of March 2011 and 2010. And keep in mind that in early 2010 we had precisely the same "jump" in economic data as we are supposedly experiencing now. Well, we all know what happened in 2010. But to confirm just how short institutional and investor memories are we present the Fed Funds futures for December 2010 (Z0) and December 2011 (Z1) as of today and as of a year ago. Basically, investors were pricing in a nearly 50% higher Fed Funds rate back in 2010: according to the FFZ0 the expected Fed Funds rate a year ago looking out to December 2010 was about 60 bps (and the December 2011 expectation was at about 2%). Compare that to the expectation of roughly 40 bps in the FF rate for December 2011 as of now. So basically when the market expected a much stronger response by the Fed a year ago, what we got instead was... QE2 5 short months later. So is it fair to say that despite all the Fed jawboning back then, absolutely the opposite happened. But that's ok - this time is really different. Dudley promises...
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