"Helicopterless" Norway & the Utøya massacre

[MacCruiskeen]

Perhaps so, Jack, considering that at least part of the thrust of this thread seems to be centered around the idea that the Norwegian police state isn't run efficiently enough.

I'll refrain, with difficulty, from using the f-word followed by the word "off".

Edit: formatting corrected

[barracuda]

Actually, I can't really fault you for that, Mac. I probably should have reconsidered on that one in the name of peaceful co-existance.

[MacCruiskeen]

Posted several hours ago, on page 80 of the "Oslo" thread:

Responding promptly and efficiently to a massacre of the Labour Party Youth Wing does not necessarily entail becoming a police state.

Does it?

The answer is "no, obviously not", for anyone who's still in any doubt.

- Back on topic, if humanly possible.

[barracuda]

I saw you first ask the question, and I've thought about it since. I'd answer it by asserting that a society is under no obligation to prepare themselves for the absolute worst outcomes imaginable in any given circumstance, and that not to prepare in this way does not constitute a negligent or underprotected society. Conversely, a society such as the United States, in which the nation's capital has become a maze of concrete barricades, phalanxes of machine gun wielding police, and metal detectors, winds up paradoxically prepared for anything and nothing, and in the end reduces the freedoms of its citizenry proportionately while demonstrating a negligible increase in their safety, if not an outright increase in the overall dangerousness of their circumstance. This is not the only end result possible by such preparedness, but it seems typical.

[MacCruiskeen]

I saw you first ask the question, and I've thought about it since. I'd answer it by asserting that a society is under no obligation to prepare themselves for the absolute worst outcomes imaginable* in any given circumstance, and that not to prepare in this way does not constitute a negligent or underprotected society.

I do get fed up having to repeat this ad nauseam: whether obliged to do so or not, Norway has long been very well-prepared for just such dangerous and unpleasant contingencies without ever yet having had to become a police state.. (What does even an average fire brigade do, in any wealthy "first-world" country? It prepares itself routinely for 1) sudden unexpected emergencies, and 2) even the absolute worst outcomes imaginable from such emergencies.)

For air transport Beredskapstroppen uses military Bell 412 SP [HELICOPTERS] from the RNoAF.

*The massacre of 68 people on that island was in any case not even "the absolute worst outcome imaginable". Obviously not. For instance, he might have massacred every single one of them. And then he might have set off a mini-nuke. And he might even have had 19 Deathloving Christian Superstudent accomplices simultaneously flying airliners into tall buildings in Oslo, Bergen and Trondheim. Just for instance.

All of this can easily be imagined, and all of this would have been even worse than what he actually did do.

[MacCruiskeen]

Posted a few minutes ago in the "R.I. Quotes" thread:

A species that hires bodyguards to protect them loses the ability to protect itself and is doomed to extinction.

It's lucky the 68 victims of the Utöya massacre didn't have any bodyguards then, otherwise they would have been doomed to extinction.

[barracuda]

whether obliged to do so or not, Norway has long been very well-prepared for just such dangerous and unpleasant contingencies without ever yet having had to become a police state..

How prepared were they for the truck bombing of their government offices in their country's capital? I seriously doubt that could happen in Washington DC these days. Why didn't the single, solitary security guard on the island have a sidearm? I can't remember the last time I attended a comparably sized event in the United States without seeing one.

What does even an average fire brigade do, in any wealthy "first-world" country? It prepares itself routinely for 1) sudden unexpected emergencies, and 2) even the absolute worst outcomes imaginable from such emergencies.

No. Fire brigades train for the best response to typical situations they encounter, not the absolute worst. If that was the case, why would any fire ever burn out of control? Because something unexpected happened that they either hadn't or couldn't anticipate or control.

For air transport Beredskapstroppen uses military Bell 412 SP [HELICOPTERS] from the RNoAF.

At what time would you estimate the helicopter at Rygge would have arrived at Utoya under optimal conditions?

The massacre of 68 people on that island was in any case not even "the absolute worst outcome imaginable". Obviously not. For instance, he might have massacred every single one of them. And then he might have set off a mini-nuke. And he might even have had 19 Deathloving Christian Superstudent accomplices simultaneously flying airliners into tall buildings in Oslo, Bergen and Trondheim. Just for instance.

Very true, it would have been much worse had the police not confronted and arrested the shooter, thus ending the slaughter.

[MacCruiskeen]

whether obliged to do so or not, Norway has long been very well-prepared for just such dangerous and unpleasant contingencies without ever yet having had to become a police state..

How prepared were they for the truck bombing of their government offices in their countries capital?

Good question. Maybe you should ask them (whoever you mean, exactly).

I seriously doubt that could happen in Washington DC these days. Why didn't the single, solitary security guard on the island have a sidearm?

Because Norway is not the USA? Because spree killings had not been frequent occurences there, until last week?
Because when the sole security guard went to work on Utöya that morning, Oslo hadn't yet been bombed and there was no particular reason to fear a further murderous attack on the Labour Party or its Youth Wing? Questions, questions.

I can't remember the last time I attended a comparably sized event in the United States without seeing one.

Norway is not the USA.

What does even an average fire brigade do, in any wealthy "first-world" country? It prepares itself routinely for 1) sudden unexpected emergencies, and 2) even the absolute worst outcomes imaginable from such emergencies.

No. Fire brigades train for the best response to typical situations they encounter, not the absolute worst. If that was the case, why would any fire ever burn out of control?

You are just being silly. You are conflating "best response" with "worst outcome". In any case, fire brigades do not typically dawdle, in two dilapidated fire-trucks, to the scene of an inferno in a chemical factory (or on an oil rig), hoping to put it out with a dozen buckets of water. Not even in quaint innocent little old Norway. Instead, they do their very best, with the best & most appropriate vehicles, equipment and manpower available to them, and they do so as quickly as possible.

Of course, it has to be presumed that the fire brigade actually gives a damn, and that none of their commanders are secretly in cahoots with a fascist arsonist. Which is one of the points any serious inquiry will have to address.

For air transport Beredskapstroppen uses military Bell 412 SP [HELICOPTERS] from the RNoAF.

At what time would you estimate the helicopter at Rygge would have arrived at Utoya under optimal conditions?

In about 5-10 minutes. (The island is 60 km from Rygge, and they must have been on the very highest alert, for this was more than an hour after the "Al Qaeda"-style bombing of central Oslo and the government buildings of the ruling social-democratic Labour Party. Even the kids on the island had been informed of that bombing minutes after it happened, so presumably the police's crack elite Readiness Troops had been informed very quickly as well, not to mention the Air Force, which has the aircraft, including the seven helicopters.)

The massacre of 68 people on that island was in any case not even "the absolute worst outcome imaginable". Obviously not. For instance, he might have massacred every single one of them. And then he might have set off a mini-nuke. And he might even have had 19 Deathloving Christian Superstudent accomplices simultaneously flying airliners into tall buildings in Oslo, Bergen and Trondheim. Just for instance.

Very true, it would have been much worse had the police not confronted and arrested the shooter, thus ending the slaughter.

... "thus ending the slaughter" about an hour and a half after it started, because instead of taking one or more of at least seven helicopters available to them, they chose to walk 24 miles to the shoreline backwards and then stood amazed at the fact that islands are in fact surrounded by water.

[barracuda]

I seriously doubt that could happen in Washington DC these days. Why didn't the single, solitary security guard on the island have a sidearm?

Because Norway is not the USA? Because spree killings had not been frequent occurences there, until last week?
Because when the sole security guard went to work on Utöya that morning, Oslo hadn't yet been bombed and there was no particular reason to fear a further murderous attack on the Labour Party or its Youth Wing? Questions, questions.

Isn't this the same as saying they were unprepared for such a contingency? Yes, the US has more experience with such killings, so response is somewhat faster, especially in urban settings. But consider some of the police response times even in the US:

Binghamton shootings, Binghamton, NY, 2009, 14 dead - SWAT members entered the Civic Center building and began clearing it at 11:13 a.m.—43 minutes after the first call to the police at 10:30 a.m.

San Ysidro McDonald's massacre, San Diego, CA, 1984, 22 dead, 19 injured - The massacre began at 3:40 p.m. and lasted for 77 minutes. Initially, law enforcement and emergency crews responded to the McDonald's located at the U.S. International Border with Tijuana at 3:15 p.m., and 15 minutes later changed directions after they learned that the shooting was actually taking place at the McDonald's next to the post office approximately 2 miles away.

So these things don't always proceed like clockwork even here in our well-organised police state.

I can't remember the last time I attended a comparably sized event in the United States without seeing one.

Norway is not the USA.

Exactly. They are not similarly prepared.

You are just being silly. You are conflating "best response" with "worst outcome". In any case, fire brigades do not typically dawdle, in two dilapidated fire-trucks, to the scene of an inferno in a chemical factory (or on an oil rig), hoping to put it out with a dozen buckets of water. Not even in quaint innocent little old Norway. Instead, they do their very best, with the best & most appropriate vehicles, equipment and manpower available to them, and they do so as quickly as possible.

True enough, and also true that they don't always succeed in saving property and rescuing everyone even when they try their best.

In about 5-10 minutes. (The island is 60 km from Rygge, and they must have been on the very highest alert, for this was more than an hour after the "Al Qaeda"-style bombing of central Oslo and the government buildings of the ruling social-democratic Labour Party. Even the kids on the island had been informed of that bombing minutes after it happened, so presumably the police's crack elite Readiness Troops had been as well, not to mention the Air Force.)

I'll buy that. In a state of perfect readiness, if the Beredskapstroppen were stationed at the air force base, ten minutes at the Bell chopper's top speed of around 250 km/hr. From the timeline:

17:38: Northern Buskerud police district ask Oslo police district for assistance.[15] Beredskapstroppen (the Contingency Platoon) is dispatched from Oslo to Utøya.[10]

So the commandos might have landed on the island as early as 17:48, about thirty-one minutes into the incident. And at a conservative estimate of one killing per minute, the shooter would have still been guilty of killing some 38 people, putting him in the top five or so spree killers in history.

[MacCruiskeen]

In about 5-10 minutes. (The island is 60 km from Rygge, and they must have been on the very highest alert, for this was more than an hour after the "Al Qaeda"-style bombing of central Oslo and the government buildings of the ruling social-democratic Labour Party. Even the kids on the island had been informed of that bombing minutes after it happened, so presumably the police's crack elite Readiness Troops had been as well, not to mention the Air Force.)

I'll buy that. In a state of perfect readiness, if the Beredskapstroppen were stationed at the air force base, ten minutes at the Bell chopper's top speed of around 250 km/hr. From the timeline:

17:38: Northern Buskerud police district ask Oslo police district for assistance.[15] Beredskapstroppen (the Contingency Platoon) is dispatched from Oslo to Utøya.[10]

Halleluja. At long last, you admit the delay was baffling, inexplicable and almost certainly avoidable. (Perhaps other copters could have flown there even more quickly, though? Presumably an honest and serious public inquiry in Norway will address all options, and all the relevant facts, including ones neither of us may even be aware of.)

But the mere-mortal police officers of Northern Buskerud will also have to answer some very serious questions about why it took them more than 20 minutes -- even after the bombing of government buildings in Oslo! -- to respond seriously to (or even to take seriously, for a long time) innumerable frantic, terrified frantic phone-calls from the Labour Party's Youth Wing summer camp on Utöya, and from countless desperate parents elsewhere. It is at least imaginable that not every cop in Norway is a diehard anti-racist and a staunch social democrat.

So the commandos might have landed on the island as early as 17:48, about thirty-one minutes into the incident. And at a conservative estimate of one killing per minute, the shooter would have still been guilty of killing some 38 people, putting him in the top five or so spree killers in history.

So, even if we ignore the mere-mortal police officers' unconscionable delay in informing the elite crack team with the fast helicopters, at least 30 anti-fascist social-democratic people, most of them very young indeed, would still be alive today. Precisely. And the elite crack emergency-response Readiness Troop would have responded with the fastest airborne vehicles available to them, rather than wasting time and lives by driving from Oslo and not even bothering to ensure they would actually have a boat when they got to the shoreline.

This is precisely why so many Norwegians are baffled and angry, and this is precisely why a serious inquiry is needed. And has indeed been announced.

I am glad we have at least reached some agreement.

[stickdog99]

Perhaps so, Jack, considering that at least part of the thrust of this thread seems to be centered around the idea that the Norwegian police state isn't run efficiently enough. Makes you wonder how timely their train schedules are kept. Probably late, late, late.

Because only an Orwellian nightmare state could possibly respond to dozens of youngsters getting murdered (on a day when there was already a nearby bombing attack) in fewer than 78 minutes. And only those advocating such an Orwellian state could possibly be upset by such a response.

[stickdog99]

.

Should we have a thread to focus on the Nazi and his Nazi associates and possible Nazi co-conspirators? Could this be the faster way to get at the core, including of a possible conspiracy?

.

Jack, I'm interested in your thoughts about this bombing/massacre on this or any other thread. Personally, I'm not at all sure "what really happened" here, so I am currently focusing on what (I feel) I am sure about while gathering information and processing the information that others have gathered.

[stickdog99]

San Ysidro McDonald's massacre, San Diego, CA, 1984, 22 dead, 19 injured - The massacre began at 3:40 p.m. and lasted for 77 minutes. Initially, law enforcement and emergency crews responded to the McDonald's located at the U.S. International Border with Tijuana at 3:15 p.m., and 15 minutes later changed directions after they learned that the shooting was actually taking place at the McDonald's next to the post office approximately 2 miles away.

Are you defending and praising this response as indicative of the fact that the USA is not quite the disgusting police state you have made it out to be? You know, since painfully slow and inept response times to mass murder are indicative of proudly quaint civil libertarian societies?

[barracuda]

Halleluja. At long last, you admit the delay was baffling, inexplicable and almost certainly avoidable. (Perhaps other copters could have flown there even more quickly, though? Presumably an honest and serious public inquiry in Norway will address all options, and all the relevant facts, including ones neither of us may even be aware of.)

Well, please understand that I'm buying the ten minute chopper flight time to Utoya mostly for the sake of argument, and at least partly because I have felt badgered into some concessions for that sake, and not really because I sincerely believe the response time would necessarily have been at the penultimate lowest limit of the possibilities. I find that in real life perfection is rarely approached, if ever. And I have said any number of times that I feel an inquiry into the incident should be held, if for no other reason than to acertain whether the response could have been made more effectively.

But I believe that should be the case with almost any situation of this or other criminal analogy, even if the response seemed adequate. Independent civil examination of police effectiveness ought to be a routine matter in most cases, for better or worse. And I have no real expectations regarding such an inquiry - even, and perhaps especially if the Nords decide they don't consider the response to have been inadequate. That's up to them to decide. I'm not interested in seeing a country in which the police have a more relaxed atitude toward terrorism inch toward becoming a facsimilie of the London survellience state or the US police state. At all. Mostly because I believe that, generally, if not in this situation, the conjuring of an ever-present state of the expectation of terrorism is nothing but a means for the state to deprive the citizens of their liberty. Terrorism is a criminal act, but unfortunately by its political nature it is seen and sold as existing in the blurry edges between crime and war, and as such can facilitate the creep of military or quasi-military involvement in civil affairs.

But the mere-mortal police officers of Northern Buskerud will also have to answer some very serious questions about why it took them more than 20 minutes -- even after the bombing of government buildings in Oslo! -- to respond seriously to (or even to take seriously, for a long time) innumerable frantic, terrified frantic phone-calls from the Labour Party's Youth Wing summer camp on Utöya, and from countless desperate parents elsewhere. It is at least imaginable that not every cop in Norway is a diehard anti-racist and a staunch social democrat.

The timeline of the series of phone calls which would have eventually lead to the intervention of the police is another matter. But yes, why not look at it. As I stated before though,it seems the earliest calls were fielded around 17:15 - we don't really know - and about ten minutes later the police say they found out. So what were the official times of those calls? What happened during those ten minutes, at the emergency response phone center? &c. Nothing wrong with asking those questions without prejudice.

[barracuda]

Perhaps so, Jack, considering that at least part of the thrust of this thread seems to be centered around the idea that the Norwegian police state isn't run efficiently enough. Makes you wonder how timely their train schedules are kept. Probably late, late, late.

Because only an Orwellian nightmare state could possibly respond to dozens of youngsters getting murdered (on a day when there was already a nearby bombing attack) in fewer than 78 minutes. And only those advocating such an Orwellian state could possibly be upset by such a response.

No, not only. But when I consider what you'd presumably like to see happen as a result of this incident - a more efficiently run response by the government and police - I have to wonder where you think such improvements might take a society along the road to fascism. Towards it or away?

I prefer a "less-safe" society to a heavily guarded one myself.