The Hugh Manatee Challenge

[slomo]

According to what I'm able to scrape from the synopses on movie insider, I'm going to call for a CIA scandal to surface in late January or early February of this year (Safehouse, and This Means War), a bomb plot in New York during the same time period (The Divide), or a story (with a possible CIA bent) related to an arms dealing operation with possible ties to Ernst Werner Glatt (Goon) in February/March.

You can see a few problems here with the challenge as it is currently formulated:

- I need far more character names and details than are currently available to reverse-google seach in order to be able to actually make a decent guesses.

- The vagueness of my prognostication leaves entirely too much wiggle room. Isn't there a CIA scandal just about every day?

- I want a control group. You need to use the same information to make predictions involving an area or areas which have nothing to do with the intelligence community or politics - something like distinguished members of the American Opthamologists Association, bicycle racers, or astronomers. Maybe horse race outcomes based upon the horse names and the owner/stable details would be a good one. Some group that is wide enough to allow for depth of comparison, and has identifiable and recordable events of interest to compare against. Horse racing seems perfect. Let's see if we can make money on bets by harnessing the ineffable synchro-continuum.

This is a great start. The reason I proposed a mechanism for disputing a claim is exactly because of the possible vagueness. In this particular prediction (or for the first two), a CIA scandal or bomb threat in a major American city (NY, LA, Chicago, Washington, maybe SF, Seattle, Houston, and Atlanta and Denver), either worthy of national attention (e.g. front page of NY or LA times) between January 15 and February 15 would suffice. These are relatively specific predictions, as long as the condition "worthy of national front-page headlines" is included. In the third prediction, the connection to a specific individual (Ernst Werner Glatt) makes it sufficiently specific. The reason I widen "New York" to other major American cities is because in movie-land, almost nothing exists outside NYC and LA, i.e. NYC is symbolic of every major American city.

Re: control group, I have been thinking about that, and it's where I get stalled on the appropriate statistical model. In general, control groups are hard to formulate (in epidemiology, anyway) so I'm not surprised that it is difficult in this context as well. I worry that restriction to a specific subject matter (horse-races) is too narrow because the sample size of control predictions would be too small. However, if we accept a prediction for any non-political event (specified beforehand as "non-political" and again subject to community approval) then I think we can widen the set of controls.

[crikkett]

Abraham Lincoln, Vampire Hunter, scheduled for June 22, is obviously meant to hide the history of slavery in the US, and perhaps Dear Abe's gayness too. It'll be released right after Juneteenth, a celebration of the end of slavery in Galveston 2 years after the civil war ended.

I think it predicts martial law by midsummer.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=33792
http://www.salon.com/2011/12/27/why_we_ ... t_slavery/
http://www.movieinsider.com/m7060/abrah ... re-hunter/

[brainpanhandler]

Thank you everyone for this fascinating thread. Interesting reading this rainy morning. My bleary brain thought for a moment that I needed some more coffee when I looked at this:

Neuroscientific Evidence for the Influence of Language on Color Perception
Category: Cognitive Neuroscience • Cognitive Psychology
Posted on: March 20, 2008 4:03 PM, by Chris

...


In perhaps the coolest of the papers in this line of research, Gilbert et al.(4) conducted another visual search task, but this time they used non-color categories, like animals (e.g., dogs and cats). In this case, there'd be a bunch of cats in a circle, and one dog (see below, from their Figure 2, p. 3), and the task is to indicate which side of the circle the dog is on. As in the previous studies, the dog was either in the right or left visual field, and we would expect that the effect of label (i.e., the faster times for between-category searches) would be stronger in the right visual field than the left.

the injection of minor and irrelevant key phrases and puns has no effect on this process, and so something more is needed to explain how KWHJ can possibly be a meaningfully rewarding activity on the part of government (or corporate) agencies. It would be difficult to see how that "something" could be anything mechanistic from a behavioral science point of view, but there are certain theories of magick where a mechanism could be posited.

Aside from the problem of defining "minor and irrelevant" and what constititutes "meaningfully rewarding activity" in light of almost certainly massive amounts of documentably inneffectual and "unrewarding activity" as practically a norm, and I hesitate to add complexity to this problem, I think we also have to consider not just the "natural" state of the human brain and cognition but also the idea that our children and even our infants are having their brains shaped in ways which make them more susceptible to whatever possible kwh mechanism we might eventually posit. (See "baby crack" thread. I can't help but wonder if there is some nefarious shit going on there. Hugh's histrionics aside I don't like what Disney is selling to kids for all sorts of more obvious and documentable reasons and it would not surpise me at all to discover they are very interested in how baby brains work and develope. Hugh's emphasis falls there. And that makes sense to me.)

Compared2what and Barracuda have pressed Hugh very hard in the past for evidence, any evidence, that kwh can work in the way Hugh suggests. Hugh generally points to Innoculation and Interference theories, connects those dots with Zipfs law and a few other dots and then links that with the very real history of government influence of major media for propaganda purposes, which is entirely uncontroversial here, et voila, kwh. It's like theorizing a black hole has to exist because of all the localized effects we can measure that surround it.

It's predictive value? I dunno man.

Take for instance the Mockingjay example I posted. I mean really. Mockingjay? But it is in the "concept" stage. the needle of Operation Mockingbird is presumably always worth throwing more hay on (one of Hugh's favorite analogies). But Hugh would say that having it in the pipeline is valuable in that it can be quickly developed and deployed should some contextual need arise, credible whistleblower, death bed confession, book publishing. etc... Mockingjay is so obvious and self referential that it's almost like they're thumbing their noses at us.

It's probably worth noting which stage of production a film is in when assessing it's potential predictive value. Presumably the further along a film is in production the harder it is to alter and the more useful it might be in determining the predictive value of a films content relative to kwh. I mean once the trailers are released and the posters printed, etc... it seems it would be harder to repurpose for some other unforseen contingency.

This is the "production status" page for the Movie Insider site Sepka provided in the op:

http://www.movieinsider.com/production-status/

[elfismiles]

Wow! I don't remember if I'd seen this before ... Orz' animated gif sig line celebrating some of Hugh's classic works:

'Gremlins' - WWIIDisney/Vietnam/Plum decoy by Spielberg



...

In 'E.T.' where the kidz are bicycling the alien to the woods so he can go home and their bicycles lift into the air...right at the emotional highpoint as they fly off towards a sunset *notice the shape of the fake lens flare. There are two fake lens flare shapes used as subliminals, first a pentagon and then a bell, as in, Liberty Bell. Then the alien ship that lifts off is shaped like the U.S. Capitol Building. This is because 'E.T.' was made to hijack the Vietnam POW left-behind scandal.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=24775

[slomo]

I will say this: today I caught myself in a habit I've developed of looking for the hidden payload in the juxtaposition of two seemingly unrelated headlines appearing on the same magazine cover.

I don't know what that says about me or Hugh's influence on this board.

[Hugh Manatee Wins]

Compared2what and Barracuda have pressed Hugh very hard in the past for evidence, any evidence, that kwh can work in the way Hugh suggests. Hugh generally points to Innoculation and Interference theories, connects those dots with Zipfs law and a few other dots and then links that with the very real history of government influence of major media for propaganda purposes, which is entirely uncontroversial here, et voila, kwh. It's like theorizing a black hole has to exist because of all the localized effects we can measure that surround it.

Repeating again:

- priming, of many varieties, semantic, lexical, orthographic, masked, etc.
- pre-biasing, including mutual exclusivity and recency effect and primacy (first impression)
- agenda-setting multiplied times social affirmation ( what everyone else is talking about)
- visibility times repetition times mnemonic optimization using cognitive- and social-science

...is a good anchor.

[Hugh Manatee Wins]

Wow! I don't remember if I'd seen this before ... Orz' animated gif sig line celebrating some of Hugh's classic works:

Hmm. Consider "Orz" putting that much energy into negative-framing of HMW outing CIA tactics. My my.

'Gremlins' - WWIIDisney/Vietnam/Plum decoy by Spielberg



...

In 'E.T.' where the kidz are bicycling the alien to the woods so he can go home and their bicycles lift into the air...right at the emotional highpoint as they fly off towards a sunset *notice the shape of the fake lens flare. There are two fake lens flare shapes used as subliminals, first a pentagon and then a bell, as in, Liberty Bell. Then the alien ship that lifts off is shaped like the U.S. Capitol Building. This is because 'E.T.' was made to hijack the Vietnam POW left-behind scandal.

viewtopic.php?f=8&t=24775

These subliminal 'lens flares' are in the re-mastered version of 'E.T.' where Spielberg claims to have 'cleaned up' some of his work for our ever-lovin' benefit.
I had to check several released VHS versions to find out which one was the one.

Spielberg used the same sublminal pentagon technique in 'The Land Before Time' animation about dinosaurs showing the last green leaf to eat being 5-sided and given by elders to the child dinosaur who plays with it and uses it as protective blanket just when it seems there's no food left for little dinosaurs.

'Guardian Ethos' linked to the Pentagon for toddlers, thanks to Steven CIA Spielberg and his military backers.

[Plutonia]

I think I might have strayed a little from sepka's original proposal, but here goes..

My prediction has to do with the timing of the US's extradition/prosecution of Assange. If I'm reading this right, not much is going to happen for at least 18 months (and maybe twice that)– expect delays, delays, delays, and that includes a possible long show trial in Sweden as a delaying tactic. Some evidence of that already you could say.

It looks to me like the general perception of Assange is still too positive for a publicly approved execution, so the strategy is to “prime” brain stems to see him as two-faced - allow that he has a good side but introduce ambiguity and doubt by suggesting a hidden, nefarious side, a fatal flaw. That way people can still be sympathetic while accepting whatever it is that is planned for him.

This is basically a furtherance of the attempt to “twin” him with Breivik – that was rather ham-fisted and it didn't (seem to) take. Though it may be resurrected as the campaign develops. Something to watch for.

Also, it's possible that Ramsey Clark will be brought in in some capacity.

It was these two films that prompted my prediction – let me explain:

Pitch Perfect

Status: Post production
In Theatres: ?

Starring:
Anna Kendrick ... Beca
Brittany Snow ... Chloe
Anna Camp ... Aubrey
Rebel Wilson ... Fat Amy
Freddie Stroma ... Luke

Synopsis: Set in the world of collegiate a cappella competitions. Story follows an all-girl college a cappella group who, recovering from years of embarrassing failure in the national finals, regroup with a shaky newbie in the lead to face the all-guys winners in a finals competition.

A basic good-worthy-girls against the arrogant-badly-behaving-boys scenario - that's the Swedish field of play.

The signifiers:
Singing = whistleblowing
Anna = Anna Ardin
Wilson = Wilen
Brittany = Britain
Snow = Sweden
Camp = OWS
Rebel = yeah, she's even Australian
Stroma = Lamo

Pitch:
= OWS, as in “pitch a tent”
= Rhymes with Witch (hunt); Bitch (feminist/Anna); and Snitch (Lamo or from the other side, Manning)
= Priming for the next film – the villain is named Pitch

Plus there are look-a-likes:

Anna Ardin Brittany Snow

Freddie Stroma

With a likely summer/fall release, it suggests to me that the Swedish allegations will still be in play then, so by inference the US's extradition/prosecution won't have begun.


Next:

Rise of the Guardians ( revised from The Guardians of Childhood)

Status: Filming the movie as of December 17, 2011.
In Theaters: November 21, 2012
Directed by: Peter Ramsey & William Joyce
Dreamworks

Starring:
Jude Law ... Pitch / The Boogeyman (voice)
Chris Pine ............ Jack Frost (voice)
Hugh Jackman ....... Bunnymund / The Easter Bunny (voice)
Alec Baldwin ......... North / Santa Clause (voice)
Isla Fisher ............ Tooth / The Tooth Fairy (voice)

Synopsis: "Rise of the Guardians" tells the story of a group of well-known childhood heroes (Santa Claus, Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, Jack Frost and Sandman) – each with their own extraordinary abilities. When an evil spirit known as Pitch (also known as The Boogeyman) lays down the gauntlet to take over the world, the immortal Guardians must join forces for the first time to protect the hopes, beliefs and imagination of children all over the world.

That's pretty clear, then – icons of the Western (consumer) culture protecting the children from a gauntlet-throwing bogeyman plus OMG! The children!! - the evocation of the protective impulse. It's a fairly common misconception that Assange's problem in Sweden has to do with school girls, rather than consenting women.

It's just a guess, but I suspect that one of the Guardians will turn out to be a traitor in league with Pitch – probably Jack Frost.

Interestingly, this film is supposedly based on a set of books that haven't been published yet – actually the first just came out in October, but the others are “in the works” so there lots of time to insert memetic cues: http://sciencefiction.com/2011/02/03/ac ... and-movie/

The signifiers:
Guardian = The Guardian (newspaper); also the US
Jude = Jules, Assange's nick
Law = The Law
Frost = Assange was interviewed by David Frost; also Sweden
Alec Baldwin = OWS - he publicly supported it
Pitch = tent = OWS, again
Ramsey = Ramsey Clark
William Joyce = Lord Haw Haw (more on that below)

And here are another couple of interesting details from another site:

... Alec Baldwin as, we’re told, a Russian-accented Santa Claus. There is another character called The Sandman, described as “a silent, Buddhalike character”.

Sandman = Manning, the silent (silenced) spy.

Le Carre fans will know this – Sandman was the West's codename for the Russian arch-spy, Karla, Smiley's nemesis.

And that makes the uncertain release date for this film kinda curious:

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)
United Kingdom, where it was released on 16 September 2011 Focus planned to give the film a wide release in the United States on 9 December 2011 However the film had a limited release.[16] Recently, it was announced the film is set for a nation-wide release on 6 January 2012.[17]

The only character we get to see in full right now is Jack Frost:


Here's the first teaser poster.
Notice the tattoos – Naughty or Nice? That's the question, isn't it?

What this poster suggests to me is that Santa = USA, and if that's an accurate read, he'll turn out to be a misunderstood, tough-guy with a heart of gold:


This was the previous iteration:


The author/director William Joyce looks like a player. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J ... 8writer%29

He's got another film coming out a just about the time I've predicted we should look for US's intervention to begin:

Leafmen

Changed from"The Leaf Men and the Brave Good Bugs" to "The Legend of the Leaf Men" and now simply Leafmen.

Production: Filming the movie as of August 23, 2010.

In Movie Theaters: May 24, 2013

And this caught my eye too:

William Joyce (24 April 1906 – 3 January 1946), nicknamed Lord Haw-Haw, was an Irish-American fascist politician and Nazi propaganda broadcaster to the United Kingdom during the Second World War. He was controversially hanged for treason by the British as a result of his wartime activities, being taken to owe allegiance to the UK by his possession of a British passport, a document to which, ironically, he was not entitled. ... Joyce was executed on 3 January 1946 at Wandsworth Prison https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Joyce

Guess who else was a guest at Wandsworth Prison?

Julian Assange, was remanded in custody at HMP Wandsworth on 7 December 2010 after being refused bail prior to an extradition hearing at Westminster Magistrates Court. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wandswort ... _Prison%29

And there's already some chatter on the 'net comparing Assange to Lord Haw Haw.



To time my prediction, I allowed 6 months after the Guardian's release date to allow for the DVD release and maximum target audience saturation.

So ..

We'll see.

[slomo]

I think I might have strayed a little from sepka's original proposal, but here goes..

My prediction has to do with the timing of the US's extradition/prosecution of Assange. If I'm reading this right, not much is going to happen for at least 18 months (and maybe twice that)– expect delays, delays, delays, and that includes a possible long show trial in Sweden as a delaying tactic. Some evidence of that already you could say.

It looks to me like the general perception of Assange is still too positive for a publicly approved execution, so the strategy is to “prime” brain stems to see him as two-faced - allow that he has a good side but introduce ambiguity and doubt by suggesting a hidden, nefarious side, a fatal flaw. That way people can still be sympathetic while accepting whatever it is that is planned for him.

[...]

To time my prediction, I allowed 6 months after the Guardian's release date to allow for the DVD release and maximum target audience saturation.

So ..

We'll see.

Plutonia, that is a brilliant analysis, with free-association worthy of GoroAdachi. In my opinion it lies firmly within the rules of Sepka's HMW-Challenge. However, in my opinion, it opens up speculation about the ultimate agency of these associations. CIA? Group mind receiving messages from the future? I dunno, but it's wildly fascinating...

[Plutonia]

Plutonia, that is a brilliant analysis, with free-association worthy of GoroAdachi. In my opinion it lies firmly within the rules of Sepka's HMW-Challenge. However, in my opinion, it opens up speculation about the ultimate agency of these associations. CIA? Group mind receiving messages from the future? I dunno, but it's wildly fascinating...

I know, eh? It's crazy specific.

But while I was following leads I was imagining a group of intelligencers who take the "resonance effect" (don't know what else to call it) for granted, seek it out and factor it in to their manipulations. I think that's plausible and would account for some of what's confusing.

I stopped there, but I could have gone on and pursued other threads - one of which seems to indicate that the Brits are nervous of the Irish again. I sensed that it's like a network of (some more, some less) activated dendrites, that can be energized as needed. Weird.

[DrVolin]

Ok, here's a bit of a crazy one that caught my attention. I have to give it more thought, but here are some initial thoughts.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1441952/

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, based on the novel by Paul Torday, scheduled for release on 3-9-12. The film is distributed in the US by CBS films, so should get fairly widespread publicity. Interestingly, the film is already completed and was previewed in Toronto in the fall. If you look at the IMDB link above, the only user review is dated 9-11-11. It laments that a fine satire of government has been turned into 'schlock'. Obviously, the release date is completely elective, so the presence of a motive can't be ruled out.

The widely posted synopsis calls the film 'an upstream journey of faith and fish to prove the impossible, possible.' Interesting that they would pitch to an American audience a film set in Yemen as a story of faith, using the specifically christian imagery of the fish.

The male lead, played by Ewan McGregor, is called Fred Jones. That is a common enough name, but just happens to be that of the Mystery Gang's leader on Scooby Doo, a prime cultural reference for anyone between about 10 (thanks to the recent live action films) and 50 (those who saw the series in first run on Saturday mornings).

The female lead, played by Krisitin Scott Thomas, is called Bridget Maxwell. This is where it gets a little weird. A googling of 'Maxwell Yemen' quickly turns up a 2001 document from the Maxwell Institute at Brigham Young University about the discovery of the Altars of Nahom in Yemen. The author cites Terryl Givens as calling the discovery 'the first actual archaeological evidence for the historicity of the Book of Mormon' and 'the most impressive find to date corroborating Book of Mormon historicity'.

There are currently 2 Mormons with a credible shot at the Republican nomination and at the Presidency in 2012 (Romney and Huntsman). Yemen is on the frontline of the War on Terror and the scene of the recent extrajudicial execution of an American Citizen, just ahead of the passage of the NDAA that actually makes it legal. The religious right, especially the bible prophecy crowd, see the continuing war in the middle east as fulfillment the conditions for the second coming (destruction of Babylon, rebuilding of the Temple).

As for the author himself, he spent most of his career with a major industry government lobbying group in the UK, working on Middle East issues, before turning to fiction writing at the age of 59. He has had several successful novels, and Salmon Fishing in the Yemen was his first.

Well, this is fun, but I am not sure how useful it is. In keeping with the spirit of the challenge, I will make predictions on this basis. Romney for President? Establishment of a major base of operations in the Yemen, perhaps for strikes on Iran? But I would rather investigate a historical example, which is what I will do now

[brekin]

The Hugh Manatee Challenge

[norton ash]

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, based on the novel by Paul Torday

, scheduled for release on 3-9-12. The film is distributed in the US by CBS films, so should get fairly widespread publicity. Interestingly, the film is already completed and was previewed in Toronto in the fall. If you look at the IMDB link above, the only user review is dated 9-11-11. It laments that a fine satire of government has been turned into 'schlock'. Obviously, the release date is completely elective, so the presence of a motive can't be ruled out.

IMHO, a schlocky satire of government has been turned into more schlock.

A friend lent me the book last summer and we had an argument about it. I thought it was an insensitive, racist piece of mainstream Brit disinfo. There was a small amount of decent satire, drowned out by glib jokes and sketches of Al Qaeda, dry backward Yemen, Brit incursions into Iran, a PM's assistant drawn more broadly than Sebastian on Little Britain, and a Benny Hill version of mysterious Araby in general... no, I did not like that stupid book.

In the context of the thread, though, it really DID have a smell of limited-hangout, feel-good propaganda about it.

[DrVolin]

Wasn't aware of it's existence myself, but that's a very interesting report. Thanks.

[JackRiddler]

I will say this: today I caught myself in a habit I've developed of looking for the hidden payload in the juxtaposition of two seemingly unrelated headlines appearing on the same magazine cover.

I don't know what that says about me or Hugh's influence on this board.

Weren't you doing that years before you ever discovered RI?