JREF.

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JREF.

Postby slimmouse » Mon Sep 16, 2013 2:18 pm

There is extremely little of use in JREF, which in a sense makes it valueless to any free thinking individual.

Yeah, sure they rightly ask us to be skepitical about "conspriacy theories" and stuff, although never the state itsefl, ( strangely enough).

They ask us not to be too free thinking that our brains fall out, or similar quips.

Give them their due I guess, since at this stage any "conspiracy theorist" is at least credited with having a brain.

By the time these charlottans have finished with you however, well according to them you dont have a brain anymore if you have any doubts about how the world works, other than reductionist science, mainstream media and politics etc..

To me, these guys are like the sorcerers apprentices, attempting to weave a spell of mind numbing ignorance upon us, its victims.

The masters are of course doing all of this for real. As we speak.
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Re: JREF.

Postby Searcher08 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 2:39 pm

BULLSHIT! NO.
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Re: JREF.

Postby seemslikeadream » Mon Sep 16, 2013 2:46 pm


James Randi really is the Flim-Flam man.






A Skeptical Look At James Randi
by Michael Prescott
Michael Prescott is a well-known novelist based in the United States
© Michael Prescott
Back to...Examining Skeptics

Michael Prescott


Years ago, when I was a full-fledged skeptic, atheist, and rationalist, I read James Randi's 1980 book Flim-Flam! Psychics, ESP, Unicorns and other Delusions. Randi is an accomplished magician and a professional skeptic, dedicating to disproving any and all claims of what he considers pseudoscience. In line with this agenda, and as its title suggests, Flim-Flam is a concerted attack on miscellaneous purported irrationalities - everything from the pop-culture writings of Erich von Daniken to the more serious investigations of professional parapsychologists. I enjoyed the book, which reinforced my belief system at the time.


Recently I picked up Flim-Flam again. Having changed my mind about many things over the past twenty years, I responded to it much differently this time. I was particularly struck by the book's hectoring, sarcastic tone. Randi pictures psychic researchers as medieval fools clad in "caps and bells" and likens the delivery of an announcement at a parapsychology conference to the birth of "Rosemary's Baby." After debunking all manner of alleged frauds, he opens the book's epilogue with the words, "The tumbrels now stand empty but ready for another trip to the square" - a reference to the French Revolution, in which carts ("tumbrels") of victims were driven daily to the guillotine. Randi evidently pictures himself as the executioner who lowers the blade. In passing, two points might be made about this metaphor: the French Revolution was a product of "scientific rationalism" run amok ... and most of its victims were innocent.

Still, the tedious nastiness of Flim-Flam does not tell us anything about its accuracy. Intrigued, I decided to check out a few of Randi's claims in detail.

I chose to focus on Chapter Eight, Randi's dissection of the experiments of Russell Targ and Harold Puthoff, two well-known parapsychologists. Randi calls them "the Laurel and Hardy of psi" and proceeds to argue that their experiments were a tissue of ineptitude, gullibility, and dishonesty.

The first thing I noticed was that Randi never gives any indication that Targ and Puthoff have any scientific credentials or accomplishments. The casual reader could be forgiven for assuming that they are not "real" scientists at all. For the record, Targ is a physicist credited with inventing the FM laser, the high-power gas-tranport laser, and the tunable plasma oscillator. Puthoff, also a physicist, invented the tunable infra-red laser and is widely known for his theoretical work on quantum vacuum states and the zero point field. (see The Field, by Lynne McTaggart, for an overview of Puthoff's work in quantum phyics.) If these two are "Laurel and Hardy," at least they come with good résumés. Randi, by contrast, has no scientific training.

Randi starts off by telling us how Targ and Puthoff took a professed psychic, Ingo Swann, to Stanford University, where, they said, Swann used his psychic abilities to affect the operation of a magnetometer. According to Randi, "the report was all wet." He knows this because he contacted Dr. Arthur Hebard, "the builder of the device, who was present and has excellent recollections of what took place." Hebard, Randi says disputes the Targ-Puthoff account. He is quoted as saying, "It's a lie. You can say it any way you want, but that's what I call a lie."

This is pretty compelling stuff. But is Randi's version of events accurate? Let's take a look.

First, he seems to make a rather basic error when he says that both Targ and Puthoff were present for this experiment. As best I can determine, Puthoff conducted the experiment, which took place in June, 1972, without Targ's assistance. Targ had met Puthoff prior to this time, but their work together apparently did not begin until a few months later.

That's a small point. Far more important is the matter of Dr. Hebard's testimony. There's another side to the story, which I found in Chapter 17 of Psychic Breakthroughs Today ( Quoted by Uri Geller ) by D. Scott Rogo. Rogo, who died in 1990 at the age of forty, was a prolific journalist and researcher of psychic phenomena. He wrote numerous popular books, some of which have been used as college texts. He also published research papers in peer-reviewed parapsychology journals. Although Rogo was sometimes criticized for tackling overly esoteric subjects, he had a reputation for honesty and was respected for his willingness to do hands-on investigation and field work, rather than relying on armchair appraisals. A Scott Rogo tribute and bibliography can be found at www.tricksterbook.com/ArticlesOnline/RogoObit.htm

Rogo writes, "There obviously exist several discrepancies between Dr Puthoff's views on what happened during this experiment, and what Randi claims Dr Hebard told him. So to clarify the matter, I decided to get in touch with Dr Hebard myself. I finally tracked him down at the Bell Telephone Laboratories in Murray Hill, New Jersey. He was very willing to discuss the Swann magnetometer demonstration with me, and professed to be very interested in parapsychology." Hebard's interest in the paranormal contradicts Randi's statement that Hebard, "not being a reader of far-out literature," was unaware of Targ and Puthoff's claims.

Rogo acknowledges that Hebard's account differs in some respects from Puthoff's. "Dr Hebard denied in no uncertain terms, however, Randi's claim that Swann was never asked to 'stop the field charge' being recorded from the magnetometer. He easily recalled that he had suggested that it would be a fascinating effect if Swann could produce it . . . which, of course, he actually did soon after the suggestion was made. Randi also directly quotes Dr Hebard as calling some of Targ and Puthoff's claims 'lies'. Dr Hebard was very annoyed by this claim since, as he explained to me, Randi had tried to get him to make this charge and he had refused. Dr Hebard later signed a statement to this effect for me." (ellipsis in original.)

As for the discrepancies between Hebard's and Puthoff's accounts, Rogo reports that in a subsequent meeting with Puthoff, he was shown "the actual graphed print-outs given by the magnetometer during the Swann demonstrations. The records supported Dr Puthoff's contention more than they did Dr Hebard's."

So far, then, the best we can say is that Randi's criticism of Puthoff (and Targ, who apparently wasn't even involved in the magnetometer experiment) is far from the last word on the subject.

Randi proceeds to launch a comprehensive critique of Targ and Puthoff's article "Information Transmission under Conditions of Sensory Shielding," which appeared in the October 18, 1974, issue of the respected journal Nature. The article details experiments involving, among other participants, the professed psychic Uri Geller.

Randi's take on this series of experiments is withering. He skewers Targ and Puthoff as "bunglers." He reports that their experiments were conducted in a chaotic atmosphere conducive to cheating. He says that a hole in the wall of Geller's isolation room enabled him to spy on the scientists during their ESP experiments. He says that Targ and Puthoff falsified the results of the tests by omitting failed experiments that would have lowered Geller's averages to the level of chance. Further, he says that the scoring of Geller's performances was mishandled, generating higher scores than Geller deserved.

The question naturally arises: How does Randi know all this, since, as he admits, "I've never even set foot on the sacred grounds of SRI [Stanford Research Institute, where the experiments were conducted"? He explains that he was given inside information by "an individual" who claimed to represent dozens of SRI scientists. This group, which worked in secret and even adopted a code name (Broomhilda), passed the information to Randi.

Unfortunately, Randi never names this individual or any other members of the Broomhilda group. He says that "Broomhilda verified for me much of the information that I had been holding on to for years," but where did he get this earlier information in the first place? "That data," he says, "now moved from the status of hearsay to documented fact." But documented is hardly a term applicable to either the initial information, which is never specified, or the Broomhilda information, which came from an anonymous source. He adds, "Additional facts were elicited during conversations and correspondence with individuals. Many of these persons were not aware of Broomhilda and were acting on their own. Their completely independent input supported Broomhilda's charges. Taken together," he concludes, "the information from all sources amounted to quite an indictment."

Maybe so, but it's an indictment that would never hold up in court. The reader is expected to take Randi's word that his unidentified sources are trustworthy - and that the sources themselves are well-informed about experimental procedures they may or may not have witnessed.

Thus when Randi alleges that "hundreds of [failed] experiments that were done by SRI ... were never reported," we must take the statement on faith, as it is unsupported by any documentation. Similarly, when Randi says definitively, "All the other tests [i.e., the successful ones] lacked proper controls and were useless," we search in vain for any footnote to back up this assertion.

A posting www.psicounsel.com/ I found on a message board sums up the situation nicely: "Claims of poor scientific method leveled at the experimenters have been shown to be mainly unsubstantiated personal opinion and second-hand 'Chinese Whispers.'" (Chinese Whispers is the British equivalent of the American game, 'Telephone'.) It might be worth adding that critics of paranormal phenomena, like Randi, are forever decrying any reliance on "anecdotal evidence," which is precisely what the bulk of Randi's argument consists of.

Randi does produce two individuals willing to go on the record - Charles Rebert and Leon Otis, both of whom were SRI psychologists. Rebert and Otis apparently disagreed with the Targ-Puthoff conclusions; indeed, Randi tells us that "a horrified Rebert also heard that Targ and Puthoff were going to proclaim these erroneous findings before Stanford University's psychology department, and he forbade such a blunder. The talk was canceled." But this only tells us that there was a dispute among the scientists at SRI. Rebert and Otis ran some unsuccessful tests with Geller and decided that he was a fraud. Targ and Puthoff ran what they regarded as successful tests and decided that, in some areas at least, Geller had legitimate psychic powers. Nothing in Randi's text establishes which conclusion was correct.

Randi goes on to report that after he had criticized Geller in an earlier book, Targ and Puthoff "issued a 'fact sheet' in rebuttal to twenty-four" of his points. According to Randi, "This attempt was a failure, and in response to one claim that the SRI tests were done under tight controls, a scientist who was there declared flatly, 'This is b.s. As far as my colleagues and I are concerned, none of the experiments met accepted scientific protocol. "I will not burden you," Randi concludes, "with the other twenty-three points; they are as easily demolished."

Well, hold on. A quotation from yet another anonymous source ("a scientist who was there") hardly constitutes a demolition job, especially when the scientist's argument consists of an unsupported assertion ("none of the experiments met accepted scientific protocol"). Personally, I would have welcomed the "burden" of the other twenty-three points and of Randi's detailed and carefully documented rebuttals.

Some idea of the counter-arguments to Randi's claims can be obtained by taking another look at D. Scott Rogo, who earlier showed the initiative to track down Dr. Hebard. Unlike Randi, who, as we have seen, had "never even set foot" inside the research facility, Rogo visited SRI on June 12, 1981. He found that Randi had misrepresented the hole in the wall of the isolation room through which Geller was supposedly able to spy on the researchers. The hole, a conduit for cables, is depicted in Flim-Flam as being three and a half inches wide and therefore offering a good view of the experimental area where the researchers were working. Rogo found, however, that the hole "is three-and-a-quarter inches [wide] and extends through a twelve-and-a-half inch wall. This scopes your vision and severely limits what you can see through it. The hole is not left open either, since it is covered by a plate through which cables are routinely run. Dr Puthoff and his colleague were, however, concerned that their subject might be ingenious enough to insert an optical probe through this hole, so they monitored the opening throughout their telepathy experiments."

Randi also indicates that the hole is stationed 34 inches above the floor. Not so, says Rogo. "It isn't three feet above the floor, but is located only a little above floor level. The only thing you can see through it - even under optimal conditions - is a small bit of exterior floor and opposing wall. (The viewing radius is only about 20°, and the targets for the Geller experiments were hung on a different wall completely.) I also discovered during my trip to SRI that an equipment rack was situated in front of the hole throughout the Geller work, which obstructed any view through it even further. I ended my little investigation by talking with two people who were present during these critical experiments. They both agreed that wires were running through the hole - therefore totally blocking it - during the time of the Geller experiments."

It would appear that the hole in the isolation booth's wall poses considerably less of a problem than the holes in Randi's arguments.

By now, I felt that Randi's credibility was in doubt. He had committed careless errors of fact, had quite possibly misrepresented and misquoted Hebard, and had made unsupported assertions based on rumors. I wondered what Targ and Puthoff have to say about all this. The only responses from either of them that I could find online were part of a long essay by Winston Wu, 'Debunking Common Skeptical Arguments Against Paranormal and Psychic Phenomena' www.victorzammit.com/skeptics/winston.html , the relevant part is Argument 18 Puthoff is quoted as saying the following:

"In Flim- Flam, [Randi] gives something like 28 debunking points, if my memory serves me correctly. I had the opportunity to confront Randi at a Parapsychology Association conference with proof in hand, and in tape-recorded interaction he admitted he was wrong on all the points. He even said he would correct them for the upcoming paperback being published by the CSICOP group. [He did not] ...

"The truth of the matter is that none of Randi's claimed suspected inadequate controls actually had anything to do with the experiments, which of course Randi was not there to know of. This has been independently reported by Scott Rogo somewhere in the literature, who came out specifically to check each of Randi's guesses about inadequate controls and found them inapplicable under the conditions in which the tests were conducted. In fact, all of Randi's suggestions were amateurish compared to the sophisticated steps we took, suspecting as we did everything from magician's tricks to an Israeli intelligence scam....

"In case one thinks that it was just a case of our opinions vs. his opinions," Puthoff continues, "we chose for the list of incorrect points only those that could be independently verified. Examples: [Randi] said that in our Nature paper we verified Geller's metal-bending. Go to the paper, and you see that we said we were not able to obtain evidence for this. He said that a film of the Geller experiment made at SRI by famed photographer Zev Pressman was not made by him, but by us and we just put his name on it. We showed up with an affidavit by Pressman saying that indeed he did make the film."

There is no way for me to verify Puthoff's statement that he tape-recorded Randi's concession of defeat "on all the points." This has to stand as an unsupported assertion, just like Randi's own arguments. But it is possible to take a closer look at Puthoff's last two claims.

First, Puthoff insists that his and Targ's Nature article does not endorse Geller's alleged metal-bending. This is accurate, as you can see for yourself by reading the article www.heart7.net/mcf/hambone/g3.html . Puthoff and Targ write, "It has been widely reported that Geller has demonstrated the ability to bend metal by paranormal means. Although metal bending by Geller has been observed in our laboratory, we have not been able to combine such observations with adequately controlled experiments to obtain data sufficient to support the paranormal hypothesis."

On the other hand, I have not found any statement by Randi in Flim-Flam to the effect that Targ and Puthoff "had verified Geller's metal-bending." He attacks the Targ-Puthoff experiments on other grounds. Of course, he may have made this statement elsewhere, but as far as I can tell, Puthoff is rebutting a point Randi never made.

How about Puthoff's second claim, regarding the SRI film? Randi certainly does make this an issue in Flim-Flam. Targ and Puthoff, he writes, "appended to [the film] - without his knowledge or permission - the name of Zev Pressman, the SRI photographer who had shot the film.... Pressman, said Targ and Puthoff, was present during [a particular series of] experiments. Not so, according to Pressman.... Most damning of all, Pressman said to others at SRI that he had been told the successful [tests] were done after he (Pressman) had gone home for the day. So it appears the film was a reenactment ... Pressman did not even know that Targ and Puthoff were issuing a statement, he did not sign it, and he did not give them permission to use his name. He knew nothing about most of what appeared under his name, and he disagreed with the part that he did know about." [italics in original]

Here we have Randi saying that this photographer, Pressman, was duped and used by the experimenters, while Puthoff says that Pressman signed an affidavit swearing that "indeed he did make the film." Is there any way to resolve this?

A further Web search turned up Chapter 14 www.uri-geller.com/geller-effect/tge14.htm of The Geller Effect. Part One of this book is written by Uri Geller. Part Two, which includes Chapter 14, was written by Guy Lyon Playfair. Living up to his name, Playfair offers an even-handed presentation of the various controversies surrounding the flamboyant and eccentric Geller.

Playfair writes, "[Randi] turned, in a later book, Flim-Flam, to the professional photographer who had made the film, a Stanford employee named Zev Pressman, with an extraordinary series of unfounded allegations....

"Pressman flatly denied all of Randi's allegations in two public statements, neither of which was even mentioned in the 1982 re-issue of the book. 'I made the film,' said Pressman, 'and my name appeared with my full knowledge and permission . . . Nothing was restaged or specially created . . . I have never met nor spoken to nor corresponded with Randi. The 'revelations' he attributes to me are pure fiction.'"

It is true that no mention is made of these "two public statements" in Flim-Flam's 1982 edition - the edition I own.

For corroborating testimony, I turned once again to the indefatigable Scott Rogo, who investigated this claim just as he had looked into Dr. Hebard's testimony and the infamous hole in the wall.

Rogo writes, "I spoke directly with Mr Pressman on 5 January 1981 and he was quite interested when I told him about Randi's book. He denied that he had spoken to the magician. When I read him the section of Randi's book dealing with his alleged 'expose' of the Targ-Puthoff film, he became very vexed. He firmly backed up the authenticity of the film, told me how he had taken it on the spot, and labeled Randi's allegation as a total fabrication. [His own descriptive language was a little more colourful!]" Rogo also reports that Puthoff showed him Pressman's signed affidavit.

How could Randi's conversation with Pressman be so different from Rogo's? The truth is, Randi does not appear to have had a conversation with Pressman at all. Take another look at the quote from Flim-Flam. The key words are: "Most damning of all, Pressman said to others at SRI ..."

Evidently, then, Randi's source is not Pressman himself, but unnamed "others at SRI" who passed on this information to Randi. Another round of Chinese Whispers, it seems.

At this point Randi ends his discussion of the Geller experiments and proceeds to criticize Targ and Puthoff's later work, as well as the work of another researcher, Charles Tart. Dealing with these criticisms would require another essay of equal length to this one, so I will stop here. The reader who wants to go further is invited to read Randi's Flim-Flam and then click on any of the links inserted throughout this essay and listed below. Or just search the Web for the keywords Randi, Targ, Puthoff, etc., and see what comes up.

Before I began this modest online research project for a rainy afternoon, I had mixed feelings about Randi. I saw him as closed-minded and supercilious, but I also assumed he was sincere and, by his own lights, honest. Now, having explored his contribution to the Targ-Puthoff controversy in some detail, I am thoroughly unimpressed. Randi comes across as a bullying figure, eager to attack and ridicule, willing to distort and even invent evidence - in short, the sort of person who will do anything to prevail in a debate, whether by fair means or foul.

The title of his book thus takes on a new and unintended meaning. From what I can tell, James Randi really is the Flim-Flam man.

NOTE: James Randi responded to this article, and Michael Prescott then responded to James Randi. To read this ongoing controversy, see http://michaelprescott.freeservers.com/FlimFlam.htm
Michael Prescott is a New York Times bestselling author. His published works include: Comes the Dark, Stealing Faces, The Shadow Hunter, Last Breath, Next Victim and In Dark Places. His latest book is Dangerous Games

More on James Randi
James Randi Biography
The Randi Prize The Challenge
The $1M Challenge So What?
Randi's Dishonest Claims The Research That Never Was
Ted Dace reports on the Amazing 3 Conference Skeptical of the Skeptics
Mazars and Deutsche Bank could have ended this nightmare before it started.
They could still get him out of office.
But instead, they want mass death.
Don’t forget that.
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Re: JREF.

Postby stefano » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:03 am

That piece by Prescott doesn't seem to have a date?

I just finished the very good The Heretics: Adventures with the enemies of science by Will Storr (which I ought to review for RI), and Storr touches on the same controversies. Specifically, he spoke to Arthur Hebard personally and Hebard told him that he certainly never used the word 'lie' as Randi quoted him, and received from one of his correspondents a photocopy of an affidavit by the photographer, Zev Pressman, attesting that all footage of the Geller experiment was genuine and filmed at the time of the experiment. That book was published in 2013.

The book has another, apparently more damning (to me, anyway) indictment of Randi: a story of how he changed the rules at the last minute to make it more difficult for George Vithoulkas, a Greek homeopath, to take his million-dollar challenge after Vithoulkas had already gone through a huge effort to set up a clinical trial (volunteers, monitors, everything). Vithoulkas's version of events is here; in Storr's book Randi gets quite upset when he's asked about it, trying to pretend that the whole mess happened because Vithoulkas refused to sign the right form.
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Re: JREF.

Postby brainpanhandler » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:17 am

slimmouse » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:18 pm wrote:There is extremely little of use in JREF, which in a sense makes it valueless to any free thinking individual.


Actually, I had never visited until just now.

Crazy clowns and pickled snakes: This week in Doubtful News for Sept 17, 2013
Swift
Written by Sharon Hill
Monday, 16 September 2013 17:38
Here is this week's summary of the strange discoveries and jaw-dropping absurdity courtesy of Doubtful News.

One thing we love to do is followup on mystery stories when the truth comes out. You don't get that from other sites. Here are two this week that were resolved. The mystery monument that appeared as a tribute to a Lovecraftian god was made by art students.

Recall back in February that a sheriff declared a man died of spontaneous human combustion. Well, it was pretty clear even at the time that that was implausible. The medical examiner's report now says he had a heart attack, then burned from a lit cigarette.

I'm sure you are all interested in what is going on in the Bigfooting world today. Well, the Oxford DNA study is being written up. There is no word yet on the results. But, Nebraska and Iowa have gone Bigfoot crazy! And YOU thought Sasquatch was only found in the northwest.

There were two stories this week about creepy characters roaming around that were human but very strange. A mysterious person roams the Swiss woods making locals a little squirrelly. And, for nightmare fuel, a creepy clown is posing for photos in the U.K.

A school in the Netherlands hired a dowser to rid them of bad electromagnetic energy. Then they just turned everything back on again.

Holy water is dirty stuff.

This year could be the worst for measles in a long time. Thanks, anti-vaxxers!

There's skeptical and then there is "skeptical". Some in the swimming community question Diana Nyad's historic feat.

More UFO hoaxes. Why? Because they really work. I wonder how many heard that this was a stunt and how many will remain believing it was unexplained.

Finally, the most ridiculous stories of the week. I totally DO NOT buy this story that a woman was bitten by a pickled snake.

This is simply the most absurd and repulsive excuse for scientific research you've seen in a while.

And, look who hasn't had his face in the media for two weeks. So, he's back! Uri Geller - mystery mongering. http://doubtfulnews.com/2013/09/uri-gel ... letterbox/

Don't forget, Doubtful News is providing continuous updates on the bizarre and wacky Marks psychic family trial taking place in Florida. A link to the updates are found in our header for easy access. Check back often. Direct link is here.

Come visit Doubtfulnews.com for stories like this every day. Check out our twitter feed @doubtfulnews and our Facebook page. We need your participation to get to the real story!

Also check out our Book Recommendations page! We are adding to it all the time. Your purchases help support the site.

http://www.randi.org/site/


That piece is filled with links. I had not heard of most of these stories. It's kind of handy as an index.

You could take a look at these stories and debunk the debunkers Slim. That it seems is USEful to me. Have at it.
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Re: JREF.

Postby NeonLX » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:45 am

The village idiot asks: what is JREF?
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Re: JREF.

Postby slimmouse » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:51 am

NeonLX » 17 Sep 2013 15:45 wrote:The village idiot asks: what is JREF?


people who write stuff like this, the likes of who's articles we've seen a lot round here lately.
14) History of American False Flag attacks. ‘USS Liberty’, ‘Gulf of Tonkin’, ‘Operation Northwoods’, ‘OKC Bombing (Murrah Building)’, ’1993 WTC attacks’. ‘Patrick Clawson’. Project for the New American Century (PNAC) needed “a New Pearl Harbor”, “Rebuilding America’s Defenses”. 9/11 Achieved those goals.
This one is easy:

USS Liberty incident: Not a false flag - the aircraft and torpedo boats that misidentified and attacked the USS Liberty were clearly marked as Israeli. No war occurred, and within hours of the incident Israel was apologizing.

Gulf of Tonkin Incident: Not a false flag - On August 2 the North Vietnamese Navy and the USN did have a brief altercation, and on August 4, the USN did fire on more NVN vessels. The initial incident was the result of misinformation and bad target identification by the USN (a sonar operator mistaking the sound of the ships propeller for a torpedo, etc.).

Op Northwoods: Had it actually been carried out this would have been a false flag event (or rather events). The plan was rejected and never implemented.

The Murrah bombing(OKC Bombing): McVeigh and Nicols have claimed to have acted in concert to do the deed, and the damage was consist with their stated means (fertilizer bomb). There is no evidence that would suggest that the two were compelled to do so. Not a False flag.

the 93 WTC Bombing: AQ's first kick at the cat - straight up terrorist attack.

Patrick Clawson: An economist with no connection to government policy making says something stupid (ie that America provoke Iran into a war). Other than the fact that this guy got some press, how is it different from the drunk guy at the end of the bar muttering about those [insert category of persons here]?

PNAC Report: recommended that the US miltary be reformatted to be able to fight and win a two theatre war (among other recommendations). Having the capability to do something is not the same thing as doing the thing. Sort of like critical thinking and the person who created this list - they have the capability of doing so, but chose not to in favour of writing a list of 24 point that can be debunked....


http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=265416
__________________

BPH. I have little doubt that many of the weird stuff can be debunked. But do we really need the likes of JREF to help us with this?

My feeling is of course that they're largely a waste of cognitively dissonant talent, as the above post from their forum might illustrate.
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Re: JREF.

Postby brainpanhandler » Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:05 pm

slimmouse » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:51 am wrote:
NeonLX » 17 Sep 2013 15:45 wrote:The village idiot asks: what is JREF?


people who write stuff like this, the likes of who's articles we've seen a lot round here lately.
14) History of American False Flag attacks. ‘USS Liberty’, ‘Gulf of Tonkin’, ‘Operation Northwoods’, ‘OKC Bombing (Murrah Building)’, ’1993 WTC attacks’. ‘Patrick Clawson’. Project for the New American Century (PNAC) needed “a New Pearl Harbor”, “Rebuilding America’s Defenses”. 9/11 Achieved those goals.
This one is easy:

USS Liberty incident: Not a false flag - the aircraft and torpedo boats that misidentified and attacked the USS Liberty were clearly marked as Israeli. No war occurred, and within hours of the incident Israel was apologizing.

Gulf of Tonkin Incident: Not a false flag - On August 2 the North Vietnamese Navy and the USN did have a brief altercation, and on August 4, the USN did fire on more NVN vessels. The initial incident was the result of misinformation and bad target identification by the USN (a sonar operator mistaking the sound of the ships propeller for a torpedo, etc.).

Op Northwoods: Had it actually been carried out this would have been a false flag event (or rather events). The plan was rejected and never implemented.

The Murrah bombing(OKC Bombing): McVeigh and Nicols have claimed to have acted in concert to do the deed, and the damage was consist with their stated means (fertilizer bomb). There is no evidence that would suggest that the two were compelled to do so. Not a False flag.

the 93 WTC Bombing: AQ's first kick at the cat - straight up terrorist attack.

Patrick Clawson: An economist with no connection to government policy making says something stupid (ie that America provoke Iran into a war). Other than the fact that this guy got some press, how is it different from the drunk guy at the end of the bar muttering about those [insert category of persons here]?

PNAC Report: recommended that the US miltary be reformatted to be able to fight and win a two theatre war (among other recommendations). Having the capability to do something is not the same thing as doing the thing. Sort of like critical thinking and the person who created this list - they have the capability of doing so, but chose not to in favour of writing a list of 24 point that can be debunked....


http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=265416


Illustrative example of shoddy thinking and cognitive bias. Possibly even deliberate disinfo. Good example of crap from jref.

BPH. I have little doubt that many of the weird stuff can be debunked. But do we really need the likes of JREF to help us with this?


Conceivably. It wouldn't be my first choice or my tenth or even my hundredth. In fact I had never visited until today.

My feeling is of course that they're largely a waste of cognitively dissonant talent, as the above post from their forum might illustrate.


I could find many threads here that could also be called a waste of talent. Max comes to mind. Wonderfully talented fellow. Utterly mad as well. But sort of delightfully so. Hugh falls into that category. Perhaps Hugh especially.
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Re: JREF.

Postby NeonLX » Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:47 pm

M'kay, made me look. I'm up to speed on this issue now. I think.
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Re: JREF.

Postby smiths » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:57 pm

The masters are of course doing all of this for real. As we speak.


"On July 4, 2008, Sunstein married Samantha Power, professor of public policy at Harvard, now United States Ambassador to the United Nations whom he met when they worked as advisors to Sunstein's friend and former colleague at the University of Chicago Law School,[39] President Barack Obama, on his presidential campaign"

I cant provide a link to the following because its off an Academic database, i cannot post the whole thing because i would probably be infringing copyright (not sure), you will just have to rely on my 'relevant' cuts




Symposium on Conspiracy Theories Conspiracy Theories: Causes and Cures*
Cass R. Sunstein Law, Harvard University and Adrian Vermeule Law, Harvard University

What causes such theories to arise and spread? Are they important and perhaps even threatening, or merely trivial and even amusing? What can and should government do about them? ...

Most of the academic literature directly involving conspiracy theories falls into one of two classes: (1) work by analytic philosophers, especially in epistemology and the philosophy of science, that explores a range of issues but mainly asks what counts as a “conspiracy theory” and whether such theories are methodologically suspect; (2) a smattering of work in sociology and Freudian psychology on the causes of conspiracy theorizing ...

We adapt the insights of these literatures by focusing on the features of false and harmful conspiracy theories that make them distinct from, and sometimes more damaging than, other false and harmful beliefs.
Our running example involves conspiracy theories relating to terrorism, especially theories that arose from and post-date the 9/11 attacks. Terrorism-related theories are hardly the only ones of interest, but they provide a crucial testing ground for the significance, causes, and policy implications of widespread conspiracy theorizing. As we shall see, an understanding of conspiracy theories illuminates the spread of information and beliefs more generally. We shall also see, however, that because of their special characteristics, conspiracy theories pose unique challenges ...

Our primary claim is that those who hold conspiracy theories of this distinctive sort typically do so not as a result of a mental illness of any kind, or of simple irrationality, but as a result of a “crippled epistemology,” in the form of a sharply limited number of (relevant) informational sources. In that sense, acceptance of such theories may not be irrational or unjustified from the standpoint of those who adhere to them within epistemologically isolated groups or networks, although they are unjustified relative to the information available in the wider society, especially if it is an open one. There is a close connection, we suggest, between our claim on this count and the empirical association between terrorist behavior and an absence of civil rights and civil liberties. When civil rights and civil liberties are absent, people lack multiple information sources, and they are more likely to have reason to accept conspiracy theories.

We address several dilemmas of governmental response to false, harmful, and unjustified conspiracy theories. Conspiracy theories turn out to be unusually hard to undermine or dislodge; they have a self-sealing quality, rendering them particularly immune to challenge. Our principal claim here involves the potential value of cognitive infiltration of extremist groups, designed to introduce informational diversity into such groups and to expose indefensible conspiracy theories as such ...

a conspiracy theory can generally be counted as such if it is an effort to explain some event or practice by reference to the machinations of powerful people, who attempt to conceal their role (at least until their aims are accomplished) ...

this account is the most useful for our particular purposes, and it seems to capture the essence of the most prominent and influential conspiracy theories about public affairs. Consider, for example, the view that
the Central Intelligence Agency was responsible for the assassination of President John F. Kennedy;
that doctors deliberately manufactured the AIDS virus;
that the 1996 crash of TWA flight 800 was caused by a U.S. military missile;
that the theory of global warming is a deliberate fraud;
that the Trilateral Commission is responsible for important movements of the international economy;
that Martin Luther King, Jr. was killed by federal agents;
that the plane crash that killed Democrat Paul Wellstone was engineered by Republican politicians;
that the moon landing was staged and never actually occurred;
that the Rothschilds and other Jewish bankers are responsible for the deaths of presidents and for economic distress in Asian nations;
and that the Great Depression was a result of a plot by wealthy people to reduce the wages of workers ...

Of course some conspiracy theories have turned out to be true, and under our definition, they do not cease to be conspiracy theories for that reason. The Watergate hotel room used by Democratic National Committee was, in fact, bugged by Republican officials, operating at the behest of the White House. In the 1950s, the Central Intelligence Agency did, in fact, administer LSD and related drugs under Project MKULTRA, in an effort to investigate the possibility of “mind control.” Operation Northwoods, a rumored plan by the Department of Defense to simulate acts of terrorism and to blame them on Cuba, really was proposed by high-level officials (though the plan never went into effect).Our focus throughout is on demonstrably false conspiracy theories, such as the various 9/11 conspiracy theories, not ones that are true or whose truth is undetermined.

Conspiracy theories often attribute extraordinary powers to certain agents—to plan, to control others, to maintain secrets, and so forth. Those who believe that those agents have such powers are especially unlikely to give respectful attention to debunkers, who may, after all, be agents or dupes of those who are responsible for the conspiracy in the first instance. It is comparatively easier for government to dispel false and dangerous beliefs that rest, not on a self-sealing conspiracy theory, but on simple misinformation or on an apparent or actual social consensus that is fragile and easily “tipped.”The most direct governmental technique for dispelling false (and also harmful) beliefs—providing credible public information—does not work, in any straightforward way, for conspiracy theories. This extra resistance to correction through simple techniques is what makes conspiracy theories distinctively worrisome ...

Karl Popper famously argued that conspiracy theories overlook the pervasive unintended consequences of political and social action; they assume that all consequences must have been intended by someone. Many social effects, including large movements in the economy, occur as a result of the acts and omissions of many people, none of whom intended to cause those effects. The appeal of some conspiracy theories, then, lies in the attribution of otherwise inexplicable events to intentional action, and to an unwillingness to accept the possibility that significant adverse consequences may be a product of invisible hand mechanisms (such as market forces or evolutionary pressures) or of simple chance, rather than of anyone’s plans.
Popper captures an important feature of some conspiracy theories. There is a pervasive human tendency to think that effects are caused by intentional action, especially by those who stand to benefit (the “cui bono?” maxim), and for this reason conspiracy theories have considerable but unwarranted appeal.

Many conspiracy theories, including those involving political assassinations and the attacks of 9/11, point to events that are indeed the result of intentional action, and the conspiracy theorists go wrong not by positing intentional actors, but by misidentifying them. (The theory that Al-Qaeda was responsible for 9/11 is thus a justified and true conspiracy theory.)

Conspiracy theories that posit machinations by government officials typically overestimate the competence and discretion of officials and bureaucracies, who are assumed to be able to make and carry out sophisticated secret plans, despite abundant evidence that in open societies government action does not usually remain secret for very long. Consider all the work that must be done to hide and to cover up the government’s role in producing a terrorist attack on its own territory, or in arranging to kill political opponents ...

But when the press is free, and when checks and balances are in force, it is harder for government to keep nefarious conspiracies hidden for long. These points do not mean that it is logically impossible, even in free societies, that conspiracy theories are true; sometimes they are. But it does mean that institutional checks make it less likely, in such societies, that powerful groups can keep dark secrets for extended periods, at least if those secrets involve illegal or nefarious conduct. Of course conspiracy theories are widespread even in open societies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and France; the only point is that such theories are less likely to be either true or justified in such societies ...

An especially useful account suggests that what makes unjustified conspiracy theories unjustified is that those who accept them must also accept a kind of spreading distrust of all knowledge-producing institutions, in a way that makes it difficult to believe anything at all. (yep)

Much depends on the background state of knowledge-producing institutions. If those institutions are generally trustworthy, in part because they are embedded in an open society with a well-functioning marketplace of ideas and free flow of information, and if it is difficult to dupe many diverse institutions simultaneously (as the 9/11 conspiracy theories require), then conspiracy theories will usually be unjustified. On the other hand, individuals in societies with systematically malfunctioning or skewed institutions of knowledge—say, individuals who live in an authoritarian regime lacking a free press—may have good reason to distrust all or most of the official denials they hear. For these individuals, conspiracy theories will more often be warranted, whether or not true ...

On our account, a central feature of conspiracy theories is that they are extremely resistant to correction, certainly through direct denials or counterspeech by government officials; apparently contrary evidence can usually be shown to be a product of the conspiracy itself. Conspiracy theories often display the characteristic features of a “degenerating research program” in which contrary evidence is explained away by adding epicycles and resisting falsification of key tenets. Some epistemologists argue that this resistance to falsification is not objectionable if one also believes that there are conspirators deliberately attempting to plant evidence that would falsify the conspiracy theory, thereby covering their tracks.

Why do people accept conspiracy theories that turn out to be false and for which the evidence is weak or even nonexistent? It is tempting to answer in terms of individual pathology, either literal or metaphorical. Perhaps conspiracy theories are a product of mental illness, such as paranoia or narcissism, or of similar conditions. And surely some people who accept conspiracy theories are mentally ill and subject to delusions ...

For our purposes, the most useful way to understand the pervasiveness of conspiracy theories is to examine how people acquire their beliefs. For most of what they believe that they know, human beings lack personal or direct information; they must rely on what other people think. In some domains, people suffer from a “crippled epistemology,” in the sense that they know very few things, and what they know is wrong ...

Those who believe that Israel was responsible for the attacks of 9/11, or that the Central Intelligence Agency killed President Kennedy, may well be responding quite rationally to the informational signals that they receive; in this sense, those beliefs may well be justified from the standpoint of the individuals who hold them, even if they are preposterous in light of the information available in the wider society ...

Of course it is necessary to specify how, exactly, conspiracy theories begin. Some such theories seem to bubble up spontaneously, appearing roughly simultaneously in many different social networks; others are initiated and spread, quite intentionally, by conspiracy entrepreneurs who profit directly or indirectly from propagating their theories. One example in the latter category is the author of the Chinese bestseller mentioned above;another is the French author Thierry Meyssan, whose book “9/11: The Big Lie” became a bestseller and a sensation for its claims that the Pentagon explosion on 9/11 was caused by a missile, fired as the opening salvo of a coup d’etat by the military-industrial complex, rather than by American Airlines Flight 77.
Some conspiracy entrepreneurs are entirely sincere. Others are interested in money or power or in using the conspiracy theory to achieve some general social goal ...

Whenever a bad event has occurred, rumors and speculation are inevitable. Most people are not able to know, on the basis of personal or direct knowledge, why an airplane crashed, or why a leader was assassinated, or why a terrorist attack succeeded, or why many people stayed in an area despite what turned out to be an imminent natural disaster. In the aftermath of such an event, numerous speculations will be offered, and some of them will likely point to some kind of conspiracy ... Conspiracy theories, like rumors, may simultaneously relieve “a primary emotional urge” and offer an explanation, to those who accept the theory, of why they feel as they do; the theory “rationalizes
while it relieves.” ...

Conspiracy theories do not take hold only because of information. Sometimes people profess belief in a conspiracy theory, or at least suppress their doubts, because they seek to curry favor. Reputational pressures help account for conspiracy theories, and they feed conspiracy cascades. In a reputational cascade, people think that they know what is right, or what is likely to be right, but they nonetheless go along with the crowd in order to maintain the good opinion of others ... In real-world conspiracy theories, reputational pressures often play a large role, leading people to squelch their own doubts in order to avoid social sanctions ...


What can the government do about conspiracy theories, and what should it do?
(1) Government might ban “conspiracy theories”, somehow defined. (2) Government might impose some kind of tax, financial or otherwise, on those who disseminate such theories. (3) Government might itself engage in counterspeech, marshaling arguments to discredit conspiracy theories. (4) Government might formally hire credible private parties to engage in counterspeech. (5) Government might engage in informal communication with such parties, encouraging them to help. Each instrument has a distinctive set of potential effects, or costs and benefits, and each will have a place under imaginable conditions. Our main policy claim here is that government should engage in cognitive infiltration of the groups that produce conspiracy theories, which involves a mix of (3), (4), and (5).
The first-line response to conspiracy theories is to maintain an open society, in which those who might be tempted to subscribe to such theories are unlikely to distrust all knowledge-creating institutions, and are exposed to evidence and corrections. Nongovernmental organizations, including the media, can and do work hard to respond to such theories. As an ambitious example, consider an Internet site, http://www.snopes.com, which researches rumors and conspiracy theories and reports on their truth or falsity. (Another is http://www.counterknowledge.com). For those concerned about the proliferation of conspiracy theorizing on the Internet, this site provides a reliable and helpful reality check. It would be easy to imagine other ventures, small and large, in this vein, for the Internet provides not only a mechanism by which to spread conspiracy theories, but also a range of corrective tools. The more general point is that in free societies, conspiracy theories are generally dislodged by the media and other non-governmental actors.

Here we suggest two concrete ideas for government officials attempting to fashion a response to such theories.
First, responding to more rather than fewer conspiracy theories has a kind of synergy benefit: it reduces the legitimating effect of responding to any one of them, because it dilutes the contrast with unrebutted theories.
Second, we suggest a distinctive tactic for breaking up the hard core of extremists who supply conspiracy theories: cognitive infiltration of extremist groups, whereby government agents or their allies (acting either virtually or in real space, and either openly or anonymously) will undermine the crippled epistemology of believers by planting doubts about the theories and stylized facts that circulate within such groups, thereby introducing beneficial cognitive diversity.
Throughout, we assume a well-motivated government that aims to eliminate conspiracy theories, or draw their poison, if and only if social welfare is improved by doing so ...

One line of thinking denies that conspiracy theories matter. There are several possible reasons to think so. First, conspiracy theories may be held by only a tiny fraction of the relevant population. Second, even if a particular conspiracy theory is widely held in the sense that many people will confess to it when polled, conspiracy theories may be held as “quasi-beliefs”—beliefs that are not costly and possibly even fun to hold, like a belief in UFOs, and that do not form a premise for action.75 Perhaps those who seem to accept such theories have “soft” beliefs, in a way that leads them generally to keep quiet, and rarely to act on what they tend to think ...

even if only a small fraction of adherents to a particular conspiracy theory act on the basis of their beliefs, that small fraction may be enough to cause serious harms. Consider the Oklahoma City bombing, whose perpetrators shared a complex of conspiratorial beliefs about the federal government. Many who shared their beliefs did not act on them, but a few actors did, with terrifying consequences. James Fearon and others argue that technological change has driven down the costs of delivering attacks with weapons of mass destruction, to the point where even a small group can pose a significant threat.77 If so, and if only a tiny fraction of believers act on their beliefs, then as the total population with conspiratorial beliefs grows, it becomes nearly inevitable that action will ensue ...

Rather than taking the continued existence of the hard core as a constraint, and addressing itself solely to the third-party mass audience, government might undertake (legal) tactics for breaking up the tight cognitive clusters of extremist theories, arguments and rhetoric that are produced by the hard core and reinforce it in turn. One potentially promising tactic is cognitive infiltration of extremist groups. By this we do not mean 1960s-style infiltration with a view to surveillance and collecting information, possibly for use in future prosecutions. Rather, we mean that government efforts might succeed in weakening or even breaking up the epistemological complexes that constitute these networks and groups.
Recall that extremist networks and groups, including the groups that purvey conspiracy theories, typically suffer from a kind of crippled epistemology. We suggest a role for government efforts, and agents, in introducing cognitive diversity. Government agents (and their allies) might enter chat rooms, online social networks, or even real-space groups and attempt to undermine percolating conspiracy theories by raising doubts about their factual premises, causal logic, or implications for action, political or otherwise.
In one variant, government agents would openly proclaim, or at least make no effort to conceal, their institutional affiliations. A recent newspaper story recounts that Arabic-speaking Muslim officials from the State Department have participated in dialogues at radical Islamist chat rooms and websites in order to ventilate arguments not usually heard among the groups that cluster around those sites, with some success. In another variant, government officials would participate anonymously or even with false identities. Each approach has distinct costs and benefits; the second risks perverse results but potentially brings higher returns.

The risk with tactics of anonymous participation is that those tactics may be discovered or disclosed, with possibly perverse results. If the tactic becomes known, the conspiracy theory may become further entrenched, and any genuine member of the relevant groups who raises doubts may be suspected of government connections. And as we have emphasized throughout, in an open society it is difficult to conceal government conspiracies, even the sort of conspiratorial tactic we have suggested, whose aim is to undermine false and harmful conspiracy theorizing.
If disclosure of the tactic does occur, however, the perverse results are just a possible cost, whose risk and magnitude is unclear. Another possibility is that disclosure of the government’s tactics will sow uncertainty and distrust within conspiratorial groups and among their members; new recruits will be suspect and participants in the group’s virtual networks will doubt each other’s bona fides. To the extent that these effects raise the costs of organization and communication for, and within, conspiratorial groups, the effects are desirable, not perverse. (And both sets of effects might occur simultaneously).

Some false conspiracy theories create serious risks. They do not merely undermine democratic debate; in extreme cases, they create or fuel violence. If government can dispel such theories, it should do so. One problem is that its efforts might be counterproductive, because efforts to rebut conspiracy theories also legitimate them. We have suggested, however, that government can minimize this effect by rebutting more rather than fewer theories, by enlisting independent groups to supply rebuttals, and by cognitive infiltration designed to break up the crippled epistemology of conspiracy-minded groups and informationally isolated social networks.
the question is why, who, why, what, why, when, why and why again?
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Re: JREF.

Postby Sounder » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:12 pm

"On July 4, 2008, Sunstein married Samantha Power, professor of public policy at Harvard, now United States Ambassador to the United Nations whom he met when they worked as advisors to Sunstein's friend and former colleague at the University of Chicago Law School,[39] President Barack Obama, on his presidential campaign"


But, but at least their saving us from those republicans.
All these things will continue as long as coercion remains a central element of our mentality.
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Re: JREF.

Postby slimmouse » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:51 am

Sounder » 18 Sep 2013 02:12 wrote:"On July 4, 2008, Sunstein married Samantha Power, professor of public policy at Harvard, now United States Ambassador to the United Nations whom he met when they worked as advisors to Sunstein's friend and former colleague at the University of Chicago Law School,[39] President Barack Obama, on his presidential campaign"


But, but at least their saving us from those republicans.


This latest edition of the Corbett report possibly deserves a thread of its own, but is also extremely appropriate to this thread, when it comes to how the real sorcerers work.

A quick primer on "gaslighting",

In this edition of Film, Literature and the New World Order we welcome Thomas Sheridan, author of The Anvil of the Psyche, to discuss Gaslight, the 1940 British psychological thriller that introduced us to the concept of ‘gaslighting.’ In the discussion we point out how common gaslighting is, ask “Are you being gaslighted?”, talk about techniques for defending oneself from gaslighting, and talk about how this technique is used on a societal level by the psychopaths at the top of the pyramid.


Link; http://www.corbettreport.com/gaslight-flnwo-08/
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Re: JREF.

Postby seemslikeadream » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:56 am

Is it not somehow troubling that an organization built on rooting out fraud had, in its midst, a man allegedly committing fraud at a federal level? And there is nothing from Grothe on the seriousness of the charge? Nothing about waiting for the process to play out before reminding us of “Jose’s” accomplishments?

We all search for something to believe in. And while those who chose James Randi believe themselves to be above the rabble who get taken in by street-side fortunetellers, I believe they simply fell for a hoax of another kind. In Fringe-ology, I write at length about what I consider the most irrational moments in Randi’s rationalist career. So I won’t get into them here. But Randi is a fount not so much of critical thinking but critical gaffes: Rupert Sheldrake, Zev Pressman, Arthur C. Clarke, Gary Schwartz (and Loyd Auerbach), Dennis Rawlins and Dennis Stillings have all, at one time or another, fallen into the gap between Randi and reason.

And Randi himself clearly enjoys his own shapeshifting. On the Skeptic Zone podcast, he talks at length about the title of the forthcoming documentary about his life. It's called An Honest Liar, and the conceit is that, as a magician, Randi's job is to deceive and misdirect and create illusions.


JAMES RANDI—SKEPTICISM'S GREAT ACHILLES
I have long felt that the skeptical community has a James Randi Problem.

At one time or another, seemingly every professional skeptic offers thanks and praise to Randi, lauds his Million Dollar Challenge and/or joins his self-named foundation (JREF). They applaud him for forty years spent debunking all things paranormal, line up in droves to attend his annual Amazing Meeting—“a celebration of critical thinking and skepticism sponsored by the James Randi Educational Foundation”—and they rarely, if ever, engage in any critical thinking about Randi himself.

Thus far, they seem unmoved even by the specter of “Jose Luis Alvarez.”

I put the name in quotes because Randi, a Plantation, Florida resident, has lived and worked with “Alvarez” for roughly 20 years, even traveling the world together to debunk psychics and stage mediums. But the feds, this last September, arrested “Alvarez” and charged him with stealing another man’s identity—obtaining passports and getting paid under the name of the real Jose Luis Alvarez, a teacher’s aide in the Bronx.

So, who is the man who has been living in Randi's home and working with him for 20 years? According to the Sun Sentinel, Alvarez is actually Deyvi Pena, who came to the United States from Venezuela in the mid-80s on a student visa to study at the Art Institute of Fort Lauderdale. And now? The questions about Pena extend from his identity to his age to how the feds have come to accuse him of stealing the name, date of birth and social security number of a New York man, back in 1987, in order to travel internationally with Randi. And it is this relationship—the long partnership between Alvarez/Pena and Randi—that should now concern the skeptical community.

In short, what did Randi know and when did he know it?

The answer would seem to matter—a lot.

The identity Randi puts forward for public consumption is truth seeker. His professional role, at least on the surface, is to unmask hoaxers and charlatans—not live with them, or abet them. But as I write in Fringe-ology, Randi strikes me as proving, at best, a highly problematic spokesman for a movement purportedly engaged in truth telling. In fact, I would argue, the now 83-year old Randi, a one-time stage magician and long-time skeptic, has always been too consumed with the prospect of claiming total victory to be bothered overly much by more nuanced truths. But let’s back up a step.

Judging by what has been written about the case thus far, those who know Randi’s partner, who we’ll call Pena/Avarez, like him. They describe him as having arrived in America, in the mid-80s, with serious ambition to further his art. He has since had gallery showings in New York and San Francisco of what the Sun-Sentinel describes as “colorful, modernist” paintings. Operating under his allegedly assumed name, he gave a lecture, in 2011, at the University of California in Berkeley, billed in fantastic terms and garbled syntax: “Utilizing the concept in theoretical astrophysics of parallel universes and space as a continuum membrane with no beginning or end, Alvarez will place his cast of characters as a stand-in for the strong human desire for knowledge and transformation and his continued visual inquiry into the realms of the fantastic and the philosophical."

Pena/Alvarez remains best known, however, for his late-80s work with Randi. He took the stage as “Carlos,” a supposed mystic channeling the spirit of an ancient seer, while Randi oversaw production of what proved to be an elaborate hoax. The idea was to educate people by fooling them: Get audience members and the media to believe in “Carlos” the psychic, then tell them the truth: They had been fooled.

See? Randi argued. All you have to do to convince people you’re a psychic is proclaim yourself one—and act the part.

But the problems with any Randi-led narrative begin immediately. For starters, the media saw right through Carlos. So when Randi goes around saying how easy it is to fool people, using Carlos as an example, he is propagating a myth. The Carlos hoax largely backfired—as these pieces from the Grail and The Skeptic (click The Second Coming, "Skepticism," here) neatly attest. And of course, the layers of mythmaking where “Carlos” is concerned now seem endless. In fact, the false “Carlos” narrative hides Randi’s actual inability to hoax the media. And “Carlos” himself was less person than Chinese box, hiding “Alvarez,” who allegedly hid Pena.

Identity theft is a serious federal offense.

Randi’s partner, who renewed the “Alvarez” passport as recently as 2008, faces a sentence of up to 10 years. His attorneys have notified the court they intend to plead guilty. And while a plea agreement would likely land him a far shorter sentence, he could also face deportation if he is here illegally.

At first blush, there are good reasons to root for someone like Pena: I have nothing but sympathy for anyone who feels they might find a better life for themselves in the United States. And while I’ve never been in that position, I believe I understand how the desire to take part in all America offers could lead someone to take tremendous risks and even break the law.

The problems with extending too much sympathy to Pena/Alvarez is that the real Jose Luis Alvarez has faced myriad inconveniences, indignities and hardships in the years that someone else has been using his identity. According to the complaint filed against Alvarez/Pena, the real Alvarez was not surprised someone had stolen his identity. He had spent years enduring hassles with the IRS and credit card companies.

As the Sun-Sentinel reports: “Alvarez, a teacher's aide from the Bronx, said he has suspected for several years that someone had stolen his identity — … that he's been dunned by the IRS for taxes he didn't owe on income in Florida, that his bank account has periodically been frozen and that he had difficulty renewing his driver's license. He's had to repeatedly prove he is who he says he is, brandishing his New York driver's license and a birth certificate, as well as his employment record.”

Recently, when the real Alvarez tried to obtain a passport to travel to his sister’s wedding in Jamaica, his application was pegged as potentially fraudulent—because, after all, someone else had already been traveling the world with a passport bearing all the same information. Sadly, the real Jose Luis Alvarez was not able to work the matter out in time to attend his sister’s wedding at all.

Events like family weddings don’t reoccur. And if Pena/Alvarez is guilty as charged, he stole that event from the real Jose Luis Alvarez and severely compromised his quality of life for many years. Worse, according to the affidavit of the special agent in the case, when Pena/Alvarez was questioned, he allegedly tried to do still more harm to his victim. Pena/Alvarez told the agent “he was aware that an individual was using his personal information in New York City.”

Certainly, then, if Randi did know the man he lived with was living under someone else’s name, this is a sad aspect of his legacy. But thus far he has remained mostly mum on the subject—a real change of pace for the usually irrepressible, irascible and outspoken skeptic. “I’ve been advised silence is the way to go,” he told the Sun-Sentinel.

Even worse for the reputation of the great Truth Teller, when the Sun-Sentinel asked him what he thought of their conclusion that “Alvarez” is really Pena, he didn’t take the traditional, and dignified way out, and simply say “I have no comment.” Instead, he offered this meek obfuscation: “Well, if that’s who you think he is.”

There is, however, a trail of facts that critical thinkers might pursue in order to come to their own conclusions. The Sun-Sentinel has done a diligent job of pursuing the story, and their coverage offers up a timeline that figures to grow clearer as legal proceedings continue.

1984 — Deyvi Pena moves from Venezuela to Ft. Lauderdale, Florida under a student visa. His listed age is 22.

1986 — Randi wins a MacArthur Foundation “genius” grant, for $272,000 and hires Pena as an assistant. Pena starts appearing around town with Randi and is known to associates as Deyvi or David. In 1986 a Toronto Star reporter shadowed Randi at La Guardia airport, while researching a profile, and wrote: “A few feet behind him, David Pena, a young man of about 20, struggles with three large suitcases.”

1987—Pena allegedly becomes Jose Luis Alvarez, applying for a U.S. passport using the name, date of birth and social security number of a man living in the Bronx, New York. The newspaper cites one person who knew Pena/Alvarez around that time saying he needed a new identity and did not have legal identification.

So, Pena allegedly becomes Alvarez—and performs on and off as “Carlos.” A quick look at the JREF site shows Alvarez is mentioned there 9 times—though nothing (outside the message boards) I could find in connection with the legal charges he faces and nothing on Pena. Is it possible that Pena/Alvarez was confiding his situation to a friend, but not Randi, the man he worked for and ultimately lived with?

There are some telling details. Pena would now be 50, and Alvarez’s listed age is 43, a seven year difference. And intriguingly, the Sun Sentinel found, when Alvarez first performed as “Carlos” Randi billed him as 19 years old—the same age as the New York man whose identity was allegedly stolen by Randi’s partner. Further, in this video, recorded in 2009, Randi says, around the 2:40 second mark, that one worry they had before they put Pena/Alvarez on stage as “Carlos” is that his “Bronx” accent might creep through.

Really?

The real Jose Luis Alvarez is from the Bronx. But the man by Randi’s side, who had allegedly adopted that identity, was from Venezuela.

Had Pena/Avarez somehow known, from the moment he met Randi, that he would one day adopt the identity of a man from the Bronx, and fooled the incredible skeptic by adopting a Bronx accent? Or was Randi just continuing to perpetuate Pena/Alvarez’s cover? Does he himself not know the difference between Venezuelan and Bronx accents? We await the answer. And at this stage, answers are finally forthcoming: Alvarez/Pena has admitted in court that his real name is Deyvi Pena. A court hearing is set for March 14, and Pena's defense attorneys has claimed the whole truth will be revealed, which she bills as a “compelling story”. But clearly, in the meantime, this whole episode looks awfully bad for Randi—and I expect it will look bad for many in the skeptical community when all is said and done.

Why?

Because, if the last months are any indication, the skeptical community will largely ignore or rationalize the story as they have done thus far.

Just recently, in fact, Richard Saunders, host of the Skeptic Zone, spent a half-hour fawning over Randi, the legend, without asking him a single question about the Alvarez kerfuffle.

Has Richard Wiseman weighed in, on his site? Nope.

Nothing at U.K. Skeptics.

Or Ben Radford.

I can find nothing from Michael Shermer on the topic, or Mike Hutchinson, and—well, this is what we humans tend to do on behalf of the people and beliefs we’ve come to revere. And in this case, too many of the people who drape themselves in the cloak of “Critical Thinking” have willingly, I would argue, pulled the wool over their own eyes when it comes to James Randi.

The JREF message board is a case in point. They deserve props, I suppose, for leaving this long thread in place for people to monitor developments in the case and discuss it. But JREF’s president D.J. Grothe strikes a sour note in his post on the subject: “We at the James Randi Educational Foundation are shocked by the sudden arrest of James Randi's beloved longtime partner, Jose Alvarez,” he writes. “Many of us have known Jose for years, both as a friend and as an ally to our cause who has traveled around the world to promote skepticism and critical thinking. Our thoughts are with Jose and Randi in this difficult time, and we hope they will be quickly reunited.”

Is that what it comes down to? Which side we’re on?

Is it not somehow troubling that an organization built on rooting out fraud had, in its midst, a man allegedly committing fraud at a federal level? And there is nothing from Grothe on the seriousness of the charge? Nothing about waiting for the process to play out before reminding us of “Jose’s” accomplishments?

We all search for something to believe in. And while those who chose James Randi believe themselves to be above the rabble who get taken in by street-side fortunetellers, I believe they simply fell for a hoax of another kind. In Fringe-ology, I write at length about what I consider the most irrational moments in Randi’s rationalist career. So I won’t get into them here. But Randi is a fount not so much of critical thinking but critical gaffes: Rupert Sheldrake, Zev Pressman, Arthur C. Clarke, Gary Schwartz (and Loyd Auerbach), Dennis Rawlins and Dennis Stillings have all, at one time or another, fallen into the gap between Randi and reason.

And Randi himself clearly enjoys his own shapeshifting. On the Skeptic Zone podcast, he talks at length about the title of the forthcoming documentary about his life. It's called An Honest Liar, and the conceit is that, as a magician, Randi's job is to deceive and misdirect and create illusions.

All I can say is that, after the Jose Luis Alvarez case shakes out, there might be a great jumping off point for a second documentary.
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Re: JREF.

Postby DrVolin » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:21 pm

I am not very fond of Randi's baby seal clubbing approach. But the bottom line about the various psychic experiments so far is that if they were successful, they haven't been repeatable.
all these dreams are swept aside
By bloody hands of the hypnotized
Who carry the cross of homicide
And history bears the scars of our civil wars

--Guns and Roses
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Re: JREF.

Postby cptmarginal » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:56 am

I find the whole approach of applying the scientific method to psychic phenomena to be laughable. Or at least critically flawed. No easy answers from me on what it's all about, or how better experiments could be designed. But looking for deviations from statistical norms in large samples of predictive experiments (or whatever) just makes no sense to me. It's like a total disconnect from the circumstances in which these types of things occur. That is to say, the experiments are disconnected from the worlds of meaning and feeling inside the heads of the subjects.

That being said, that guy who was doing the experiments where people were shown random mundane photographs with pictures of naked people (and dead people) mixed in was pretty interesting. People were having an arousal response milliseconds before the naked picture was displayed, if I remember correctly. Still a bizarre construct to hinge the determination of psychic phenomena's validity on, but at least it involved emotion and meaning.

Oh, here it is: http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/201 ... see-future
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