How Bad Is Global Warming?

[Ben D]

Ben, I'm curious about one thing:

Just for fun, let's assume that the sun is going into a Maunder minimum, leading to a cooling effect. A mini ice-age basically.

If that's the case, why is earth still getting warmer? And what do you think will happen when the solar cycle turns and starts adding to the heating again?

You know, it is hardly worthwhile responding to such ill informed comments...there has been no warming for a decade and a half in either the global land - sea surface temperatures or the atmospheric.

Here is the Hadley graph for 1980 to present global surface temperature anomaly...



Btw, apart from that...note that this pause in the increase in warming coincides with the highest CO2 emissions humans have ever produced being pumped into the atmosphere over the same period...



So far as what do I think will happen when the solar cycle turns and starts adding to the heating again...well of course the earth will warm up again. But a deep Solar minimum can be for a long period, many many decades..this video may give you the general idea...

[DrEvil]

Ben, I'm curious about one thing:

Just for fun, let's assume that the sun is going into a Maunder minimum, leading to a cooling effect. A mini ice-age basically.

If that's the case, why is earth still getting warmer? And what do you think will happen when the solar cycle turns and starts adding to the heating again?

You know, it is hardly worthwhile responding to such ill informed comments...there has been no warming for a decade and a half in either the global land - sea surface temperatures or the atmospheric.

....snip...

I posted this all the way back on page 49 of this thread, so I guess the question of who is ill informed is up in the air.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exposed-the-myth-of-the-global-warming-pause-8945607.html

Exposed: The myth of the global warming 'pause'

Failure to record temperature rises in the Arctic explains apparent ‘flatlining’, study finds, undermining sceptics’ argument that climate change has stopped

Scientists can now explain the “pause” in global warming that sceptics have used to bolster their arguments. Sceptics had claimed we have nothing to fear from climate change because it has stopped being a problem.

A new study has found that global temperatures have not flat-lined over the past 15 years, as weather station records have been suggesting, but have in fact continued to rise as fast as previous decades, during which we have seen an unprecedented acceleration in global warming.

The findings will undermine the arguments of leading sceptics, such as the former Chancellor Lord Lawson, who have criticised scientists from the Met Office and other climate organisations for not accepting that global warming has stopped since about 1998.

Two university scientists have found that the “pause” or “hiatus” in global temperatures can be largely explained by a failure of climate researchers to record the dramatic rise in Arctic temperatures over the past decade or more.

When Kevin Cowtan of York University and Robert Way of Ottawa University found a way of estimating Arctic temperatures from satellite readings, the so-called pause effectively disappeared and the global warming signal returned as strong as before.

The paucity of surface-temperature records in the remote and inaccessible Arctic has long been recognised as a problem for global estimates, not least by the Met Office itself.

However, the scale of the Arctic warming highlighted by Mr Cowtan and Mr Way has surprised seasoned climate researchers.

“The problem with the polar areas lacking data coverage has been known for a long time, but I think this study has basically solved it,” said Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

He added: “People will argue about the details, as is normal in science, but I think basically this will hold up to scrutiny.”

[Ben D]

The next 15 years will determine the outcome of the AGW debate...if Solar sunspot cycle activity does indeed continue to be low, and the past history of a general correlation with global temperature holds up, we are in for some cooling...

[Rory]

It's not a debate. Your side is propaganda. Our side is scientific consensus.

If it ever was a debate then, y'know, you lost. All there is left is your rinse and repeat, denier bs

[Iamwhomiam]

And for you to dismiss the Cassiopaean Experiment as some trivial 'new age' woo site, Arkadiusz Jadczyk is a theoretical mathematical physicist, a scientist of the same caliber as those you use for your source material. They are referring to the very same approaching "wave."

Ok, so you think the Scientific American article on Solar Activity Studies is on the same page wrt scientific credibility as the Cassiopaean Experiment. Why am I not shocked...

Btw, fyi some RI Cassiopaean threads here...

http://rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=17715&p=186046&hilit=Cassiopaea#p186046

http://rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=14674&p=147331&hilit=Cassiopaea#p147331

Ben, my dear friend, it seems you've confused the scientist with his scientific mystic wife and her website, The Cassiopaean Experiment.

Btw, many sites are now discussing the 3D to 4D coming shift and most agree that it's to begin very soon, but these are not my beliefs.
Let's recap for a moment...

I couldn’t help but notice your complete disregard of the material I set with bold emphasis from your source. Nothing to say about it?

First I wrote this,

“Oh, poor Ben!
How sorry I feel for you!
Your all-seeing eye has cataracts, you poor fellow.

The wave is such old news, why there are cults awaiting it as I type.

Here's some reading material for you and it seems like you won't need to await a billion or more years before you're crushed by the weight of your thoughts. http://tinyurl.com/peq5as8

And if you tire reading about the ever-approaching wave, here's more, just a bit more metaphysical, perhaps.
http://tinyurl.com/owobrr3

You might notice that 100 years is a bit sooner than a billion. You seem to have your fear priorities reversed.”

Next I wrote,

“I posted something, the exact same thing you did, from another source.

Ridiculous, indeed. But some do believe it, just as some believe we're entering a Maunder minimum or another Ice Age while denying real science proving the opposite is true; that our Earth will become too warm to support life because of man's deadly emissions.”

And for you to dismiss the Cassiopaean Experiment as some trivial 'new age' woo site, Arkadiusz Jadczyk is a theoretical mathematical physicist, a scientist of the same caliber as those you use for your source material. They are referring to the very same approaching "wave."

How sad it is you chose a knee-jerk reaction to the man who’s science your heavy post’s scientists' work is based upon. You could have googled him rather than discount him, simply because his wife is a scientific mystic with a website related to his science.

http://arkadiusz-jadczyk.org/downloads.htm

http://quantumfuture.net/quantum_future/

And frankly Ben, I couldn't care less what happens here or anywhere a billion years from now. Then maybe some slithery lizard thing might, but not me.

Besides, the Sun is expected to burn-off all its fuel in around a hundred million years, so why worry now?

[DrEvil]

Did you even read my previous post BenD? What part of "the temperature curve you're using is wrong" don't you understand? Maybe a picture is easier to grasp:

[Ben D]

Did you even read my previous post BenD? What part of "the temperature curve you're using is wrong" don't you understand? Maybe a picture is easier to grasp: -snip-

The adjusted graph you posted is modified Met office data based on a recent questionable scientific paper...it is just that...adjusted/modified...it is not what the IPCC uses....ie. Hadcrut, RSS, GISS, or UAH

Here is the trend over the last 15 years based on Hadcrut...



Now it is time to put a stop to this exchange...I've made my point..you've made yours...let the reality of global temperature and Solar activity play out and we will witness the result.

Good day...

[Rory]

Good day...

Finally

[coffin_dodger]

Esa's Cryosat sees Arctic sea-ice volume bounce back
BBC News 16 December 2013

The bounce back in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic this summer was reflected also in the volume of ice.

Data from Europe's Cryosat spacecraft suggests there were almost 9,000 cu km of ice at the end of this year's melt season.

This is close to 50% more than in the corresponding period in 2012.

It is a rare piece of good news for a region that has witnessed a rapid decline in both area cover and thickness in recent years.

But scientists caution against reading too much into one year's "recovery".

"Although the recovery of Arctic sea ice is certainly welcome news, it has to be considered against the backdrop of changes that have occurred over the last few decades," said Prof Andy Shepherd of University College London, UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25383373

[Luther Blissett]

Now it is time to put a stop to this exchange...I've made my point..you've made yours...let the reality of global temperature and Solar activity play out and we will witness the result.

Good day...

But we can't just put it to rest, for those of us who understand that our species is polluting and degrading the planet's environment to an irreversible and parasitic degree also visualize the need for a revolutionary change. Global warming and climate change are only symptoms of environmental rape.

This isn't just a debate, it's about how to end industrial civilization now, care for ourselves, care for others, and to minimize pain and suffering.

[fruhmenschen]

New Greenhouse Gas Proves More Powerful Than CO2

December 15th, 2013
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/new- ... -co2-16831

A new greenhouse gas that is 7,000 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at warming the Earth has been discovered by researchers in Toronto.

The newly discovered gas, perfluorotributylamine (PFTBA), has been in use by the electrical industry since the mid-20th century.

The chemical, that does not occur naturally, breaks all records for potential impacts on the climate, said the researchers at the University of Toronto's department of chemistry.
Credit: Flickr/Mel Stoutsenberger

The chemical, that does not occur naturally, breaks all records for potential impacts on the climate, said the researchers at the University of Toronto's department of chemistry.

"We claim that PFTBA has the highest radioactive efficiency of any molecule detected in the atmosphere to date," said Angela Hong, one of the co-authors.

The study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, found PFTBA was 7,100 times more powerful at warming the Earth over a 100-year time span than CO2.

Concentrations of PFTBA in the atmosphere are low – 0.18 parts per trillion in the Toronto area – compared to 400 parts per million for carbon dioxide. So PFTBA does not in any way displace the burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal as the main drivers of climate change.

Dr. Drew Shindell, a climatologist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said:

"This is a warning to us that this gas could have a very large impact on climate change – if there were a lot of it. Since there is not a lot of it now, we don't have to worry about it at present, but we have to make sure it doesn't grow and become a very large contributor to global warming.".

He said a number of recent studies had drawn attention to other potential new greenhouse gases which, like PFTBA, pack a lot of warming potential in each molecule but are not very prevalent in the atmosphere.

Such studies were a warning against increasing uses of such compounds without first understanding their impact on climate change, he added.

[DrEvil]

Now it is time to put a stop to this exchange...I've made my point..you've made yours...let the reality of global temperature and Solar activity play out and we will witness the result.

Good day...

Fair enough. You don't want to consider new data because it messes up your old "It's the sun, stupid" schtick. I can live with that.















Nah! Just kidding. I'm going to keep calling out your bullshit. It's more fun.

[Iamwhomiam]

Thank you Luther, well said.

Fruh, over a 20 year period, multiply that figure by 3.

All fluoride derivatives have tremendous warming potential thousands of times greater than CO2.

[NeonLX]

The Non-Disclosed Extreme Arctic Methane Threat.

Methane Hydrate "Clathrate Gun"

The cause of the sudden temperature increase in Australia this year can be traced to the fast building pall of methane in the Northern Hemisphere caused by global warming of the Arctic methane hydrate permafrosts and destabilization of the subsea methane hydrates (Figure 9). At the moment, the entire Arctic is covered by a widespread methane cloud but it is very concentrated (> 1950 ppb) over the Eurasian Basin and Laptev Sea where the subsea methane hydrates are being destabilized at increasing rates by heated Atlantic (Gulf Stream) waters . The area of the Eurasian Basin is similar to that of the East Siberian Shelf where Shakova et al. (1999) indicate that some 50 billion tons of methane could be released at any moment over the next 50 years from destabilization of subsea methane hydrates, producing catastrophic consequences for the global climate system. Consequently global warming is probably now also destabilizing methane hydrates in the Eurasian Basin, starting the release of an additional 50 billion tons of methane which will further compound the catastrophe represented by the destabilization of methane hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Shakova et al. 1999). Essentially we have passed the methane hydrate tipping point and are now accelerating into extinction as the methane hydrate "Clathrate Gun" has begun firing volleys of methane into the Arctic atmosphere ...

https://sites.google.com/site/runawaygl ... ane-threat

[Iamwhomiam]

Simple.

Simply wordy.



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