Mass shooting in Las Vegas, 2/10/2017

[Burnt Hill]

When I give support to the idea of mature men having a death wish of taking others out with them, it is because I have interviewed many of them myself as a psych nurse.

It is not social conditioning causing me to accept this as normal, I don't, it is a fact generated by troubled men themselves, the social conditioning is theirs.

In my humble opinion, we have been conditioned to believe that such behavior does not require any more explanation than "well,he's male."

[stickdog99]

When I give support to the idea of mature men having a death wish of taking others out with them, it is because I have interviewed many of them myself as a psych nurse.

It is not social conditioning causing me to accept this as normal, I don't, it is a fact generated by troubled men themselves, the social conditioning is theirs.

In my humble opinion, we have been conditioned to believe that such behavior does not require any more explanation than "well, he's male."

So name the ones who have actually followed through on their "bucket list" death wishes. I am not questioning ego despair. I am questioning that ego despair causing sane, comfortable senior citizens to become actual senseless mass shooters. Surely you can provide many examples of something so well conditioned. I'm still waiting for this extensive list.

While I'm waiting, may I suggest that all of us have become conditioned through the availability heuristic to consider this behavior anything but unbelievably improbable? May I also suggest that the "historical fact" of this event itself (as well as "that" of the Farooks) will be used to dismiss any future questioning of mass shootings pinned on individuals or groups that have historically never committed such mass shootings? Mad leftists? Mad pot heads? Mad professors? Mad mothers? Mad grannies? No reason to question why. They just wanted to kill and die.

This event has already significantly increased the availability heuristic effect for mass shootings. Who benefits?

[MacCruiskeen]

Can anyone show me even one (1) photo or film of MUZZLE FLASHES from those two windows on floor 32?

I'm pretty sure the answer is no, but please correct me if I'm wrong. Not only was that 12-minute battlefield cacophony of 160 dB machine-gun fire magically inaudible * inside the hotel, it was also magically invisible from outside.

*Those who responded upthread by telling me that Vegas hotel rooms are very well soundproofed (!) appear to have missed the fact that the earwitness in the room directly below had no difficulty hearing the policemen's footsteps directly above him:

What is this bullshit?

Kansas man was in the hotel room right below the Vegas shooter during the massacre

Like many people at the concert below, the man in the hotel room directly beneath the Las Vegas shooter’s room initially thought fireworks were going off. ????

Floyd Conrade of Emporia, Kan., was in Vegas for business. He was getting ready for bed on the 31st floor of the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino. By his account, the moments leading up to 10:08 p.m. local time didn’t particularly stand out.

But then the rapid-fire shots sounded — like a finale on the Fourth of July.

Conrade, 50, noticed some debris hit his window as it plummeted toward the ground, where 22,000 people at a country music concert came to realize they were taking fire in a crowded pen with few escape routes.

At least 59 would lose their lives; more than 500 would be injured.

Conrade moved away from the windows as the bullets rained. He went to his bedroom and always kept something between himself and the glass. He stood and he sat. He used an app on his phone to listen to law enforcement chatter, he told The Star and KWCH 12.

After the gunfire stopped, he decided to poke his head into the hallway, where he saw four or five armed officers, one of whom demanded he return to his room.

He did. He sat and waited. Given the darkness and his high vantage point, he couldn’t make out details on the ground, the few times he moved toward the window.

Most of the time he stayed away from the window.

He heard officers over the radio announce the gunman’s room number. It was one digit off from his: 31-134 and adjoining room 135. Stephen Paddock, the shooter, was in 32-134 and adjoining room 135.

That’s when he knew the gunfire he’d heard had been coming from directly above.

Conrade felt safe through it all because of the concrete between him and a mass murderer.

The explosion above that signified officers breaching Paddock’s room startled Conrade more than the gunfire did.

The gunfire was surprisingly quiet from within his room. The footsteps of investigators combing the room seemed loud. ???? Glass crunched beneath their feet. WTF ????The footfalls padded across his ceiling through the night. Conrade could tell their probe was intent, thorough.

He didn’t sleep much that night. By 1:30 a.m. things seemed to have wound down. At about 4 a.m., a SWAT team came through his room.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/ar ... rylink=cpy

http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/ar ... 47656.html

The gunfire was cacophonous - approximately 160 dB, louder than a jackhammer, louder than a heavy metal concert..

Red added for emphasis.

[MacCruiskeen]

When I give support to the idea of mature men having a death wish of taking others out with them, it is because I have interviewed many of them myself as a psych nurse.

It is not social conditioning causing me to accept this as normal, I don't, it is a fact generated by troubled men themselves, the social conditioning is theirs.

In my humble opinion, we have been conditioned to believe that such behavior does not require any more explanation than "well, he's male."

So name the ones who have actually followed through on their "bucket list" death wishes. I am not questioning ego despair. I am questioning that ego despair causing sane, comfortable senior citizens to become actual senseless mass shooters. Surely you can provide many examples of something so well conditioned. I'm still waiting for this extensive list.

While I'm waiting, may I suggest that all of us have become conditioned through the availability heuristic to consider this behavior anything but unbelievably improbable? May I also suggest that the "historical fact" of this event itself (as well as "that" of the Farooks) will be used to dismiss any future questioning of mass shootings pinned on individuals or groups that have historically never committed such mass shootings? Mad leftists? Mad pot heads? Mad professors? Mad mothers? Mad grannies? No reason to question why. They just wanted to kill and die.

This event has already significantly increased the availability heuristic effect for mass shootings. Who benefits?

Thanks for hammering away at this point, stickdog. I couldn't agree more.

It's really pretty appalling that so many people, even here, find it perfectly normal, understandable and unsurprising that a young Muslim mother or an old happily-married millionaire would commit a massacre of random civilians for no discernible reason whatsoever. "Hey, shit happens." Six decades of indoctrination-by-TV have not been without effect.

[stickdog99]

[JackRiddler]

When I give support to the idea of mature men having a death wish of taking others out with them, it is because I have interviewed many of them myself as a psych nurse.

It is not social conditioning causing me to accept this as normal, I don't, it is a fact generated by troubled men themselves, the social conditioning is theirs.

In my humble opinion, we have been conditioned to believe that such behavior does not require any more explanation than "well, he's male."

So name the ones who have actually followed through on their "bucket list" death wishes. I am not questioning ego despair. I am questioning that ego despair causing sane, comfortable senior citizens to become actual senseless mass shooters. Surely you can provide many examples of something so well conditioned. I'm still waiting for this extensive list.

While I'm waiting, may I suggest that all of us have become conditioned through the availability heuristic to consider this behavior anything but unbelievably improbable? May I also suggest that the "historical fact" of this event itself (as well as "that" of the Farooks) will be used to dismiss any future questioning of mass shootings pinned on individuals or groups that have historically never committed such mass shootings? Mad leftists? Mad pot heads? Mad professors? Mad mothers? Mad grannies? No reason to question why. They just wanted to kill and die.

This event has already significantly increased the availability heuristic effect for mass shootings. Who benefits?

See, but this is ridiculous. Once it is clear that a group with this deathwish exists, only one in a tiny fraction need to try to execute to produce a lot of murder cases you don't care to count in this (loads of them in their 60s, a very common age for suicides and not uncommon for spouse murder-suicide) and only one in ten thousand or fewer need to go the mass murder route to produce one that looks like this. Burnt Hill, who is making a point from expertise you apparently lack, does not have to hit the lottery of actually interviewing someone who ended up being a mass killer! (I guarantee you Paddock the poker player would understand how probability works if he were privy to this discussion.) You seem anxious to wish to privilege elderly or rich assholes as a demographic, none of whom would ever act as Paddock did even though counter-examples were given above. No one's saying men generally, not even gun-collecting asshole men generally, or angry misanthropic men generally, but enough from this grouping to produce a regular stream of mass killers, one out of the millions every couple of weeks on average -- and enough of a media machinery to make sure you hear about them regularly, although only the 5+ or 10+ victim incidents get the big coverage. As for the fantasy demographics you say might be accused of being likelier to murder in the future, how about we deal with that if it actually happens, rather than obscuring this discussion now with nonsense?

Another "point" that I find laughable is the idea that a man in his 60s couldn't be robust enough to lug heavy bags himself or, with the requisite training, fire big weapons at a field and maintain the fire for 10 minutes.

/

[MacCruiskeen]

You seem anxious to wish to privilege elderly or rich assholes as a demographic

This is such bullshit, Jack, and it is your entire argument, repeated incessantly. Compare: "You seem anxious to wish to privilege Muslim assholes as a demographic." Ethically and logically these arguments are equally worthless and equally invalid.

Your response to anyone questioning Lee Harvey Oswald's guilt would presumably be: "You seem anxious to privilege small-time spook assholes as a demographic."

[stickdog99]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... t-sex.html

A Las Vegas prostitute who was hired by murderer Stephen Paddock has spoken out about their 'violent' sex sessions and how he bragged about having 'bad blood'.

The woman, who spoke anonymously, said she would spent hours drinking and gambling in Sin City with Paddock, who she described as 'paranoid' and 'obsessive'.

If he hit a winning streak, he would take her back to his room for 'really aggressive and violent sex' including living out rape fantasies, she said.

Paddock also boasted about his bank-robber father, saying that 'the bad streak is in my blood' and 'I was born bad', according to texts seen by the Sun on Sunday.

The 27-year-old woman said Paddock, 64, would often rant about conspiracy theories including how 9/11 was orchestrated by the US government.
...

In Paddock's room, officials found a piece of paper containing a number of phone numbers but they reiterated no suicide note was found.

Earlier, NBC News had reported a mysterious charger that did not match any of Paddock's cellphones - raising the possibility that another person had been with Paddock beforehand.

However, later police said that they have now matched all the cell phones and all the chargers and that they belong to Paddock.

*****

Now I get it! Critical thinking is what radicalized him to senselessly murder people!

[Burnt Hill]

So name the ones who have actually followed through on their "bucket list" death wishes.

None of them, though these are all men who have sought mental health help.

ego despair causing sane, comfortable senior citizens to become actual senseless mass shooters

Assuming Paddock did this, I would not be assuming he was sane and comfortable.
After that I agree with everything you say.

It's really pretty appalling that so many people, even here, find it perfectly normal, understandable and unsurprising that a young Muslim mother or an old happily-married millionaire would commit a massacre of random civilians for no discernible reason whatsoever.

I don't know anyone that found either of these events normal, understandable or unsurprising..
Especially not here.
We are trying to understand it all though, each in out own way.

[MacCruiskeen]

Questioning the official 9/11 yarn? Unconvinced of the Designated Culprits' actual guilt? Hmmm...You seem anxious to privilege Saudi rich-boy assholes as a demographic.

[Elvis]

Okay I listened to the Ed Opperman report (thanks, Willow), and have to give it some weight because he lives in LV and went out and talked to people. His knowledge of the LVPD shed some insight into the police reaction.

But—I can't quite dismiss the woman (Renee?) in the earlier video that Willow posted, whose Marine husband says they definitely heard ("automatic") gunfire. If their story is true, then other reports of gunfire, at appreciable distances from the Mandalay Bay don't seem easy to dismiss, either.

So last night I was telling my girlfriend about the analysis on RI. She only knew what she'd heard on NPR, "all fucking day long."

When I told her about the reports of gunfire at other LV hotels around the same time, she suggested a scenario in which the shooter or shooters had arranged for the sound of gunfire, or big firecrackers, etc., to go off at appointed times to confuse law enforcement, diverting them to various locations.

I think that would be a brilliant tactic.

Since we haven't seen bullet holes, or shell casings in those other places (that I know of), I consider that scenario a possibility—and something that Paddock could have accomplished in his (assumed for the moment) "meticulous planning."


And an aside:
I shudder to think of the number of people I've heard say they'd "like to take some people out with them"; Paddock happened to have the means to carry out the fantasy. And the general outline of his personality (if not a crafted 'legend') suggests to me that he could have done it just out of profound alienation.

As Jack points out:

Once it is clear that a group with this deathwish exists, only one in a tiny fraction need to try to execute to produce a lot of murder cases you don't care to count in this (loads of them in their 60s, a very common age for suicides and not uncommon for spouse murder-suicide) and only one in ten thousand or fewer need to go the mass murder route to produce one that looks like this.

Unlike, say, the San Bernadino events (I'm convinced the couple was set up), I'm undecided here. I can see it going either way.

[DrEvil]

Stickdog, what you're saying is essentially something like: There's never been a car crash at this intersection before, so that can't possibly be a car crash I just witnessed. Just because something hasn't happened before doesn't mean it will never happen. Old, rich white guys also have fucked up minds.

Since Paddock is dead we can't possibly know his mental state. We don't know that he was happily married, well adjusted, content etc. If he was alive right now he might have a perfectly "reasonable" explanation for what he did.

Maybe he just wanted revenge on Las Vegas after losing his fortune on gambling? Maybe he was so introverted that he came to despise humans in general? We will probably never know what exactly motivated him, but being a wealthy senior citizen certainly doesn't rule him out.

(this all assuming that he was the shooter of course).

Also, witnesses are notoriously unreliable, especially in high stress situations. After the Munich shooting in 2016 I saw an interview with a guy who saw the gunman open fire and kill someone, and he had a detailed description of the gunman in his head. His clothes, their color etc. It was only when he returned to his hotel and watched the news that he realized that his mental image was of the first victim. He got the two mixed up in his mind almost immediately after witnessing it.

Human memory didn't evolve for truthfulness. I can pretty much guarantee that all of us have memories of events that don't even remotely resemble what actually happened. Thinking that you saw or heard something can easily become knowing that you saw or heard something.

[stickdog99]

See, but this is ridiculous. Once it is clear that a group with this deathwish exists, only one in a tiny fraction need to try to execute to produce a lot of murder cases you don't care to count in this (loads of them in their 60s, a very common age for suicides and not uncommon for spouse murder-suicide) and only one in ten thousand or fewer need to go the mass murder route to produce one that looks like this.

So then name one, JR. What you are saying is that all it takes is something so incredibly improbable that it has never happened before in the entire history of the world. How you cannot see that you are subject to both generalization and the availabiility heuristic is beyond me. You cannot name a single historical example of something you are still intent on deeming highly likely. Your cognitive dissonance must be staggering.

Burnt Hill, who is making a point from expertise you apparently lack, does not have to hit the lottery of actually interviewing someone who ended up being a mass killer! (I guarantee you Paddock the poker player would understand how probability works if he were privy to this discussion.)

Can our resident expert name a single previous senior citizen millionaire who became a mass shooter? Can you? So I guess we are all equally missing the requisite expertise on this topic. Right?

You seem anxious to wish to privilege elderly or rich assholes as a demographic, none of whom would ever act as Paddock did even though counter-examples were given above. No one's saying men generally, not even gun-collecting asshole men generally, or angry misanthropic men generally, but enough from this grouping to produce a regular stream of mass killers, one out of the millions every couple of weeks on average -- and enough of a media machinery to make sure you hear about them regularly, although only the 5+ or 10+ victim incidents get the big coverage. As for the fantasy demographics you say might be accused of being likelier to murder in the future, how about we deal with that if it actually happens, rather than obscuring this discussion now with nonsense?

Yes, a proven effect that you are profoundly subject to and continually exemplifying in print is total nonsense because something that never happened before in human history is completely probable. You know, because Hollywood. And because availability. And because of fantasies that have never been acted upon before.

Because you have concluded that it is highly probable based on the availability of a few very prominent historical (or fictional?) examples that have no actual relationship to Paddock's profile, you don't have to produce a single instance of a mass shooter who matches Paddock's profile to declare Paddock's actions highly likely. "Since so many people fantasize about opening up the door on a commercial jet and jumping out without a parachute, and since it would only take a tiny percentage of those who fantasize about this for this to become extremely likely, it must be extremely likely!" The fact that this never actually happens in reality has no bearing on this!

Another "point" that I find laughable is the idea that a man in his 60s couldn't be robust enough to lug heavy bags himself or, with the requisite training, fire big weapons at a field and maintain the fire for 10 minutes.

Congratulations! You almost forget the straw man cherry on top!

[stickdog99]

Stickdog, what you're saying is essentially something like: There's never been a car crash at this intersection before, so that can't possibly be a car crash I just witnessed. Just because something hasn't happened before doesn't mean it will never happen. Old, rich white guys also have fucked up minds.

I never said white. I never said male. I said economically comfortable senior citizen. That is a pretty huge demographic in the United States over the past 100 years of automatic weapon gun availability. Wouldn't you agree? So, name another economically comfortable senior citizen who became a senseless suicidal mass shooter.

You can't. But you are still so determined to believe that such behavior is highly likely that you went to the trouble of constructing a bizarrely nonanalogous analogy so that you can keep believing that something that has never happened before is actually an example of something probable. Why? Can you feel the dissonance?

[JackRiddler]

No one says this behavior is highly likely. Only that the size of the pool of potential perpetrators (any one of them astronomically unlikely) is large enough that regular occurrences of this shit become likely, in fact predictable. (And sorry, that "pool" in this case happens to be fucked-up men with enough guns.) It's you who are having a problem with the same basic probability theory that Paddock himself would have understood easily.

You are mostly only deluding yourself by defining Paddock's "profile" in such a precise and overwrought way as to supposedly rule him out as too unprecedented to be a shooter. You may as well say no small plane pilot landlord poker player with a bank robber father residing in Nevada was ever accused, therefore it must be the alternative scenario of _____ (a blank you don't want to fill in with speculation - that's what I meant by "don't get pinned down" - but obviously has some white rich psycho dudes at the back as the actual masterminds).

Also, you are either ignoring or spinning away everything everyone who is contradicting you is saying. I wasn't going to engage any more, but the example of your response to Burnt Hill speaking from experience was annoying. I'll stop. There are no uninvolved and well-informed third-party judges here, most likely, but if there were, I'd be happy to submit our respective posts to their scrutiny without needing to engage in this any more. Thank you.