Coming Soon - War with Iran?

[RocketMan]

Iran can not not react.

Well, they do in fact have that choice. But they probably lack the moral fortitude to take the high road. Some stupid little skirmish or air strike somewhere, a few dead American youngsters. This is all so fucking futile. Khamenei preaching jihad and death to American devils.

But it was AmeriKKKa that pulled the trigger, if it comes to that. Not that there will be anyone to write the history.

[FourthBase]

War with Iran would be the climax to the Oil Wars and would settle things once and for all.

There are those who desire exactly this.

Look at the map and realize, if you were one of those Evil Overlords, you'd be thinking "the only thing in the way of complete domination of the region is that FUCKING IRAN!!"

So. Hopefully the smarter people in the room will prevail, which honestly is what has happened thus far.

It's just so sad that people who are just your basic "moderate war mongers and criminals" are the ones who we're trusting with keeping this thing from turning into World War Four.

I mean, the real evil bastards are HOPING Iran makes a nuke and shows it off. And they would gladly HELP Iran get such a nuke.

Definitely afraid of this scenario.

Suppose a nuke goes off in, say, Dallas. How would people here estimate the likelihood of the following scenarios: A) a complete false flag operation, all performed by Americans/Israelis; B) an Iranian operation, covertly supplied by Americans/Israelis; C) an Iranian operation, helped only by Russians/Chinese.

If it were C, would people here oppose violently retaliating? I know C would probably be seen as an impossibility here, but IF it were C...

[RocketMan]

What exactly would it profit Iran to conduct a nuclear bombing in a US city? It would provide an immediate casus belli for the US to launch a full blown invasion anywhere they deem fit, if not the final nuclear exchange. Irani (Chinese, Russian...) strategists are not insane or sucidial, in fact in all probability less so than the Joint Chiefs of Staff or those jolly fellows at RAND Corp. and other such "foreign policy" outfits.

[Harvey]

Definitely afraid of this triggering WWIII.

On the other hand, Suleimani was a world-class piece of shit and Iran is ruled by psychotic right wing extremists. Hope nobody sympathizes with them just because they're anti-Israel and anti-American-hegemony.

That's your MSM talking. He's one of the genuine heroes in the fight against Jihadism.

[FourthBase]

But Iran has no nuclear weapons program. Furthermore, Iran is not an enemy of the United States, indeed it has a long record of trying to initiate dialogue and come to a mutually acceptable arrangement with the US government that would safeguard both countries' interests. Forget the "crazy mullahs" caricature; you'd be hard pressed to find a more deeply pragmatic and reality-based bunch than those who run the current Iranian government.

On the other hand, and for the same reason, Iran is indeed an implacable enemy of Israel, one that moreover, understands Israel's true agenda in the region and is taking concrete and so far very effective actions to thwart it. It is Israel, not the US, that desperately NEEDS to neutralize Iran, just as permanently and absolutely as Iraq has been neutralized.

I'm open to suspecting Israel's rulers of all sorts of devious shit, but I never realized just how much Alice's posts resembled Iranian propaganda. Iran's not an enemy of the US? Iran is ruled by some of the most deeply reality-based pragmatists in the world?

[RocketMan]

The US has no enemies except those it has fostered itself with its rapacious lust for natural resources.

Iran, China, Russia... they would all be prepared to negotiate on a level playing field. But the US's imperial hubris is such that that will probably not happen in our lifetimes. It is in the US national security doctrine. The US cannot brook any rising regional power showing sign of autonomy.

[FourthBase]

Definitely afraid of this triggering WWIII.

On the other hand, Suleimani was a world-class piece of shit and Iran is ruled by psychotic right wing extremists. Hope nobody sympathizes with them just because they're anti-Israel and anti-American-hegemony.

That's your MSM talking. He's one of the genuine heroes in the fight against Jihadism.

Soleimani is a hero?
Hezbollah and Hamas aren't jihadists?
Are you fucking kidding me?

Lemme guess, you think you're not epistemically captive to "alt news" propaganda. What's talking through you, then, Harvey? A magical stream of purely objective information the universe has blessed you with?

[FourthBase]

The US has no enemies except those it has fostered itself with its rapacious lust for natural resources.

Iran, China, Russia... they would all be prepared to negotiate on a level playing field. But the US's imperial hubris is such that that will probably not happen in our lifetimes. It is in the US national security doctrine. The US cannot brook any rising regional power showing sign of autonomy.

Right, no other nation has visions of world domination. Everybody besides the US is willing to play fair.

Why is there only room for one villain in your ideological grand narrative? Ever suspect your worldview is way, way, way shallower and narrower than you'd like to think it is?

[FourthBase]

What exactly would it profit Iran to conduct a nuclear bombing in a US city? It would provide an immediate casus belli for the US to launch a full blown invasion anywhere they deem fit, if not the final nuclear exchange. Irani (Chinese, Russian...) strategists are not insane or sucidial, in fact in all probability less so than the Joint Chiefs of Staff or those jolly fellows at RAND Corp. and other such "foreign policy" outfits.

I realize the US military has its fair share of LeMays. I realize any attack by Iran would be extremely risky for Iran & friends. But you really can't see any upsides, any improbable scenarios where the risk pays off, maybe a scenario where Trump is forced (by blackmail?) not to retaliate? More importantly: You don't think Iran has its own share of LeMays? Do you think Iran's fundamentalist Muslims are saner than America's fundamentalist Christians? You're surely well aware of Christian eschatology, but how much do you know about Muslim end-times fantasies?

[Cordelia]

Reported were three strikes on Soleimani at Baghdad’s International Airport; if accurate, footage of the second:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGv24cLcyac

(Wonder how the airport is handling the departure of U.S citizens advised by the State Dept. to flee Iraq at once.)

Giving a face to a name:


Qasem Soleimani

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the attack was spurred by intelligence assessments indicating that Soleimani was overseeing an “imminent” attack on American citizens in the Middle East.

“I can’t talk too much about the nature of the threats, but the American people should know that President Trump’s decision to remove Qasem Soleimani from the battlefield saved American lives,” Pompeo told Fox News.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/mi ... story.html

[Grizzly]

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[MacCruiskeen]

Heard a brief forelock-tugging interview on BBC World radio with the US envoy to Iraq, some infant named Brian Hook. In less than two minutes this little boy managed at least ten incantations of the magic words "AMERICAN LIVES" before concluding with a solemn assurance that the Iranian general they had just torn to pieces without warning was "the worst BAD GUY in the whole region".

Master Hook made no mention of the dismembered Iraqi who had been accompanying this eviscerated former Bad Guy, but presumably that expendable former Iraqi had been a Bad Guy too, by definition, not having been an American Life.

Anyway, call it statecraft, because the USA has just managed to alienate and infuriate Iran and Iraq simultaneously. Whose wish was that? Who insisted on making it come true? Why? And, above all, cui bono, exactly? I am almost completely half afraid to wonder aloud.

[Harvey]

Definitely afraid of this triggering WWIII.

On the other hand, Suleimani was a world-class piece of shit and Iran is ruled by psychotic right wing extremists. Hope nobody sympathizes with them just because they're anti-Israel and anti-American-hegemony.

That's your MSM talking. He's one of the genuine heroes in the fight against Jihadism.

Soleimani is a hero?
Hezbollah and Hamas aren't jihadists?
Are you fucking kidding me?

Lemme guess, you think you're not epistemically captive to "alt news" propaganda. What's talking through you, then, Harvey? A magical stream of purely objective information the universe has blessed you with?

I think you may have proved my point for me.

[Harvey]

What exactly would it profit Iran to conduct a nuclear bombing in a US city? It would provide an immediate casus belli for the US to launch a full blown invasion anywhere they deem fit, if not the final nuclear exchange. Irani (Chinese, Russian...) strategists are not insane or sucidial, in fact in all probability less so than the Joint Chiefs of Staff or those jolly fellows at RAND Corp. and other such "foreign policy" outfits.

Funny you should mention that. Todays Mail has an interactive map of 'what would happen if your hometown was nuked?' Meanwhile press on both sides of the Atlantic are screaming about likely 'expected' 'horrific' 'reprisals' and 'retaliation.'

Where are the grown ups?

[Grizzly]

Guy's it's okay...Jared Kushner has it ALL under control..