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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Belligerent Savant » Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:47 am

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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby chump » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:29 pm


Is a BBC Viral Template Driving an AI Wall Street Crash? with Special Guest David Hawkins

Have BBC SERCO patented fake news injects been driving the pandemic panic gripping the world right now? David explores curious aspects of corona virus mania.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby identity » Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:10 pm

brainpanhandler » Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:38 am wrote:
identity » Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:51 am wrote: I highly recommend the New Roots OoO (diluted 25% in olive oil), from oregano harvested in the mountains of Turkey, with a very high carvacrol content.


Do you dilute it yourself or buy it that way?


The New Roots OoO comes diluted 25% in extra-virgin olive oil. I think it has the highest carvacrol content of any OoO out there. You could also just buy the essential oil from another brand and dilute yourself to your preferred % and in your favorite carrier oil (I just diluted some of the essential oil in coconut oil for topical application last night). BTW, I have been told that a good way of taking it for immune protection is to put a few drops (of the diluted stuff!) on your palms, rub them together, rub on back of neck, and then on soles of feet. Probably not a good idea to take it internally for more than a couple of weeks...

Also, I do think the headline of that article I quoted was somewhat misleading ("Oregano Oil Proves Effective Against Coronavirus"). The few studies that have been done using carvacrol for SARS/respiratory viruses have been done in vitro. That does not mean it will be effective in the case of living human beings! Nor does it mean it will not. As usual, do your own research and then do what feels right.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Grizzly » Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:13 pm

Last edited by Grizzly on Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby identity » Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:41 pm

Project Willow » Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:11 am wrote:Is “gain of function” research (genetically altering the genome of a pathogen so that it can infect humans) a beneficial avenue of study to prevent disease, or is it a key technique in building biomedical warfare agents, or …both?


Haven't seen anything to suggest the former possibility yet. Let us know if you do!

https://www.google.com/search?q=%22gain+of+function%22+coronavirus&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&num=100
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Grizzly » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:06 pm

While the sheep fight over toilet paper and hand sanitizer, the tax payers hand over 1.5 trillion to wall street.
hxxps://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-to-inject-1-5-trillion-in-bid-to-prevent-unusual-disruptions-in-markets-11584033537
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:05 pm

Via: Nature doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-00760-8

How much is coronavirus spreading under the radar?

Amy Maxmen

Just how much has the coronavirus spread? More than 137,000 people in 117 countries and regions have been confirmed as having COVID-19. And earlier this week, the World Health Organization (WHO) described the outbreak as a pandemic. But testing isn’t available to everyone, so the numbers don’t accurately reflect the extent of transmission in communities around the world.

Based on conversations with three leaders in public health — at the WHO, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and at one of one of the largest research charities in the world — Nature explains how officials and researchers are attempting to estimate the size of individual outbreaks based on incomplete data.

Has the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 been spreading undetected in some populations?

“Yes, unequivocally,” says Jeremy Farrar, an infectious disease specialist and director of the research charity Wellcome, in London. A telltale sign of covert transmission in communities is finding a few confirmed but unrelated cases, with no recent history of international travel. That means these cases are connected through a hidden web of infections. The ideal way to know how many people in a community have had coronavirus infections , Farrar says, is to collect blood samples from people in every age group, looking for antibodies against the coronavirus, which show that someone has previously been infected. Data from such serology studies, as they are called, can then be used to accurately determine rates of fatality and transmission. But such studies take time. “We need to make policy decisions and clinical decisions now,” Farrar says. “You can’t say, ‘Let’s wait a month until we have the data.’”

Can scientists estimate the size of an outbreak without widespread testing?

Yes. Experts say that they compare various lines of evidence. One estimate begins with the number of deaths in an area. Farrar calls this a "guesstimate" because each of the variables researchers are using right now are subject to change, introducing uncertainty at each step in the calculation. However, it goes something like this: Data from China suggest that about three weeks passes between when a person feels sick and dies from COVID-19. And if you assume a case fatality rate of roughly 1%, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that each death represents about 100 cases in the first week. Right now, he adds, you can expect the epidemic to double each week if those cases aren’t identified and isolated — bringing the estimate to 400 at the time of death. Because the error bars on each of these variables are large, epidemiologists check their figures against further information.

For example, experts have turned to analyses of coronavirus genomes. The best example is from Seattle, Washington, where on 29 February, Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centre, and his colleagues reported that the genome of a virus collected from a teenager near the city closely matched that of one collected six weeks earlier, from an unrelated woman in her sixties who had returned to Seattle from China. The simplest explanation was that the virus had spread from the woman to other people, who spread it to yet others, eventually reaching the teenager. Bedford’s team calculated that over the six weeks, several hundred people could have been infected.

Gregory Armstrong, deputy incident manager for the COVID-19 response at the CDC in Atlanta, Georgia, says that Bedford got in touch as soon as he finished the analysis. “I asked him to look at the probability of alternatives,” Armstrong says. The teenager had not recently travelled internationally, so another possibility was that a second person had come to Seattle from the same region of China as the first traveller, with the same strain. But Bedford calculated that such a scenario was less likely than a single introduction.

So, how did the teenager acquire the infection without health officials noticing a huge uptick in cases? After the woman and her husband tested positive in mid- to late January, health officials monitored 347 people with whom they had come into contact1. One possibility, Armstrong says, is that some of these contacts were infected, but showed few, if any, symptoms of COVID-19. If they didn’t isolate themselves, they might have spread the virus in the community. When asked why the CDC didn’t initially test more people in Seattle who complained of fevers and coughing in February, Armstrong says, “Resources, quite honestly.”

In early March, academic laboratories ramped up screening for coronavirus, and have started to reveal the extent of the outbreak. As of 12 March, King County health department, which covers Seattle, had reported 270 cases, with 27 deaths.

With so many cases undetected, how can the WHO make claims about how many countries have sustained transmission?

“We have to use the information we have,” says Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of the emergencies programme at the WHO in Geneva, Switzerland. Most of the WHO’s data come from surveillance and case detection, she says, but the organization also corresponds with scientists who conduct genome analyses and other studies. Understanding the extent of transmission in each province or state can help policymakers to tailor their responses.

Van Kerkhove says there is evidence that containment measures worked in China, which has reported just about 20 new cases per day, for the past week. (By comparison, Italy confirmed more than 2,000 cases in the past 24 hours.)

An early signal that China had begun to turn the tide on their epidemic was that most newly reported cases began to occur among known and quarantined contacts of cases, she says. In other words, the virus wasn’t spreading undetected — at least not as frequently as it once was.

“But while we are seeing a decline in cases across Asia, the big worry now is Europe,” says Van Kerkhove. “We know that with more aggressive containment, countries can hit a turning point. But in some countries,” she says, “it will get worse before it gets better.”

Armstrong worries that Europe's situation could foreshadow what's to come for the US. "It’s hard to believe we won’t see that kind of spread here," he says. "I hope we don’t, but health departments — every one of them — will tell you this is the most complex public health emergency we have dealt with."

Is it time to ditch the idea of containing COVID-19?

Absolutely not, say Farrar, Armstrong and Van Kerkhove. Farrar explains that containment and mitigation strategies overlap because measures that help to prevent an outbreak spreading also mitigate its effects on lives and hospitals. The most basic containment measure entails testing to identify infected people, finding their contacts and preventing them from infecting others. The WHO credits the curbing of China’s outbreak to the country’s meticulous identification of cases and contacts. Chinese authorities quarantined contacts — at home and in facilities where they were monitored for 14 days.

“Sometimes people have hundreds of contacts, so that is a very intensive effort,” says Farrar. “But it’s absolutely critical to do it, because even though it probably won’t completely contain the outbreak, it buys you time to make sure hospitals are ready, to think about the consequences of closing schools.”

China’s mitigation measures, such as banning large gatherings, also seem to have slowed transmission. Armstrong uses an epidemiological measurement called the basic reproduction number, or R0, to describe the number of people whom an individual with COVID-19 might infect. “We are estimating an R0 of around two or three,” he says. “If we can more than halve that with mitigation strategies, the outbreak will no longer grow.”

“Right now, we need to do anything that buys us one week, two weeks; anything to delay will have a dramatic impact,” says Farrar. “If London, Seattle or Paris goes through what northern Italy is going through at the moment, it will be devastating.”

Hospitals in northern Italy are running out of beds for patients, and around 250 healthcare workers have been infected. If current rates of infection continue, an analysis in The Lancet predicts that intensive care units in Italy will be at maximum capacity at the end of next week2. "I was on the phone with colleagues in critical care in Italy over the weekend, and it's desperate," says Farrar. "Anything to dampen outbreaks will save an enormous number of lives."
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Blue » Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:14 pm

Thanks so much for that info Mr. Rex.

I thought nordic was banned. Does anyone really believe anything he says anyway? And what's with the Tom Hanks hatred? He's an actor making a movie with production people doing his hair, make up, costumes, stunts. Do yall really think rich and famous people can not be infected?

Neighbor has it and I'm seriously wondering if I had it back in Feb. I was extremely sick, didn't know what was going on at the time. Coughed forever.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Joe Hillshoist » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:01 pm

Here's some more potentially useful information.

Smokers or people with a history have 14x higher rate of progression with the disease. However what progression means I dunno... Doesn't necessarily mean to death and pneumonia and older smokers (or ex smokers) have never mixed well. There's a receptor site on your upper respiratory tract called ACE2 which is apparently how the virus binds and enters your system. It may be triggered by smoking.

Immediately after smoking or gaping your lungs primary immune response is compromised. This is a short term thing. Consider stopping.

It's appears the virus can last at least three hours in aerosol form in the atmosphere and possibly more than 24 hrs on hard sheltered surfaces, we'll probably all get it at some point.

So washing your hands is important but you probably need to do it every time you touch something.

Don't worry about hand sanitiser, use soap at home, or like me take it into town with say 20 LT of water. Wash under running water. Don't use public toilets as the odds or aerosol transmission from fecal matter are much higher. If you do use a toilet put the lid down when you flush.

For hand sanitation I use isopropyl alcohol but ethanol is just as good. Carry a small bottle in public and use it on everything you touch before and after you touch it (in case you have it and are spreading it.). Petrol bowsers, stuff at the supermarket. ATMs, any cash. It's probably a good idea to disinfect everything you touch and everything you bring into your home.

Don't share joints, bongs or vapes.

We know fuck all about this really but whatever good info is there is worth using. I've spent a bit of the last 8 months fighting fires with fuck all information, winging it as best we could and that's the spirit I'm posting this stuff in.

Think about the way the virus can enter your system and do what you can to interfere with pathways.

And as a few others and I mentioned before, do what you can to boost your immune system. There seems to be a relationship between survivability and adaptive immune response.

One more point, at this point here we gave limited community transmission if any. Most of our cases now are coming via travel from the US. Even our secret police minister Peter Dutton has it now after a trip to the US. He was meeting with the heads of the five eyes recently. And Ms Trump. They may all have this now.

If so and its a Chinese bioweapon then it's done its job.

Either way it's probably all over the US by now. You guys are in the shit big time.

Your best bet is to do everything you can and be in a low population centre with decent health care. Good luck. And don't panic.

One more tip, if someone somehow offers you Cytokine modulators get them and keep them handy.

One of the things that kills with this bug is called a Cytokine storm. Look it up.

Cheers.

Take care.

And you know what. Fuck the economy. Spend time with people you love, try not to infect each other but make the most of it.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby liminalOyster » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:18 pm

Joe Hillshoist » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:01 pm wrote:Here's some more potentially useful information.

Smokers or people with a history have 14x higher rate of progression with the disease. However what progression means I dunno... Doesn't necessarily mean to death and pneumonia and older smokers (or ex smokers) have never mixed well. There's a receptor site on your upper respiratory tract called ACE2 which is apparently how the virus binds and enters your system. It may be triggered by smoking.

Immediately after smoking or gaping your lungs primary immune response is compromised. This is a short term thing. Consider stopping.

It's appears the virus can last at least three hours in aerosol form in the atmosphere and possibly more than 24 hrs on hard sheltered surfaces, we'll probably all get it at some point.

So washing your hands is important but you probably need to do it every time you touch something.

Don't worry about hand sanitiser, use soap at home, or like me take it into town with say 20 LT of water. Wash under running water. Don't use public toilets as the odds or aerosol transmission from fecal matter are much higher. If you do use a toilet put the lid down when you flush.

For hand sanitation I use isopropyl alcohol but ethanol is just as good. Carry a small bottle in public and use it on everything you touch before and after you touch it (in case you have it and are spreading it.). Petrol bowsers, stuff at the supermarket. ATMs, any cash. It's probably a good idea to disinfect everything you touch and everything you bring into your home.

Don't share joints, bongs or vapes.

We know fuck all about this really but whatever good info is there is worth using. I've spent a bit of the last 8 months fighting fires with fuck all information, winging it as best we could and that's the spirit I'm posting this stuff in.

Think about the way the virus can enter your system and do what you can to interfere with pathways.

And as a few others and I mentioned before, do what you can to boost your immune system. There seems to be a relationship between survivability and adaptive immune response.

One more point, at this point here we gave limited community transmission if any. Most of our cases now are coming via travel from the US. Even our secret police minister Peter Dutton has it now after a trip to the US. He was meeting with the heads of the five eyes recently. And Ms Trump. They may all have this now.

If so and its a Chinese bioweapon then it's done its job.

Either way it's probably all over the US by now. You guys are in the shit big time.

Your best bet is to do everything you can and be in a low population centre with decent health care. Good luck. And don't panic.

One more tip, if someone somehow offers you Cytokine modulators get them and keep them handy.

One of the things that kills with this bug is called a Cytokine storm. Look it up.

Cheers.

Take care.

And you know what. Fuck the economy. Spend time with people you love, try not to infect each other but make the most of it.


There was a Lancet study yesterday that showed that in "white people," smoking was (oddly, admittedly) not correlated. This came after the 14x one I had also seen and that you reference. I was pleased given that I just relapsed on smokes for 6 weeks after years quit. Since stopped and would say its probably a terror idea to smoke, vape, etc at this point, but still.

I'm also kind of shocked that people keep lauding S Korea's response as if it's mostly an act of government magic and ignoring the most obvious thing - MASKS were worn widely and by all from the beginning. Here we've been treated to this bizarre - masks are unnecessary and alarmist - thing and wear them only if you're sick. Now, a week later we get the equivalent of BREAKING NEWS: Asymptomatic carriers are a big problem.

Just mindboggling to watch denial at its apex.
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Grizzly » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:22 pm

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3

they are talking about actual organ damage...

I asked earlier*, but... How the fuck has Tucker become the truth bringer all of a sudden?
FULL SHOW - TUCKER CARLSON - MAR 13 2020
https://www.bitchute.com/video/FbHSkEkL50HZ/


* http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?f=44&t=37330&p=683691#p683691
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Belligerent Savant » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:31 pm

.

Blue » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:14 pm wrote:
I thought nordic was banned.


Nope, he wasn't.


Blue » Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:14 pm wrote:Does anyone really believe anything he says anyway? And what's with the Tom Hanks hatred? He's an actor making a movie with production people doing his hair, make up, costumes, stunts. Do yall really think rich and famous people can not be infected?


Most, if not all, of us here are glad to see Nordic back. I'm one of them. What reason would we have to 'believe' him any less than anyone else here?

Hanks is a top-tier Hollywood actor. That makes him suspect by default.

Back to the topic at hand, this link has lots of data points to digest; I'll include the 'Results' section below, but the entire piece is worth reading.

https://analytica.com/estimating-us-dea ... us-in-2020


Results

In this section, I summarize my forecast for the Number of Deaths from the COVID-19 Coronavirus that will occur in the US in the year 2020. For those who have jumped directly to this section, I have documented the information and process that has gone into these estimates in the text prior to this section.

I can’t emphasize enough how important it is to pass these estimates around in the form of a probability distribution, and NOT convert what you see here to just a single number. If you are a journalist who is relaying these results to lay audiences, at least communicate the ranges in some form.

The following exceedance probability graph sums up the forecast, and I’ll explain how to interpret it following the plot.

Image
The forecast for the number of deaths from COVID-19 in the US in 2020. This is depicted as a Probability Exceedance plot. Each point shows the probability on the Y-axis that the number of deaths will exceed the number on the X-axis. Suffixes K=1,000, M=1,000,000.

The actual number of deaths has an equal chance of being less than or greater than the median value, making the median the “most typical” of the possible outcomes. To read the median, find 50% on the vertical axis, and find the corresponding value on the horizontal axis. The median estimate is that 36,447 people will die from COVID-19 in 2020.

The 90% exceedance gives a reasonable “best-case” extreme scenario. The forecast gives a best-case of 1,923 deaths. There is a 10% chance of the actual number being this low.

You can consider the 10% exceedance probability to be the “very pessimistic” scenario. There is a 90% chance it won’t get that bad, but a 10% chance it will be even worse. This 10% exceedance forecast (also called the 90th percentile) is 271,900 deaths.

The right tail corresponding to the part of the graph where exceedance probabilities are less than 10% represents the very unlikely, but not impossible, catastrophic scenarios. I judged the probability of 1 million deaths or more to be 2%, with 2 million or more at 1%. The good news about these extreme cases is that the probability of these extreme scenarios materializing is hyper-sensitive to the parameters that we can influence through changes that lower transmission rates.

Summary

I intended this article to be a tutorial-by-example for how to forecast a very difficult uncertain quantity. The quantity I chose happens to be one of very high interest at the present time (10-March-2020), so as a side effect I hope that the forecast for the specific variable I used is useful in many readers’ immediate decisions and decision-models.

I emphasized that you should always consider a forecasting task to be an assessment of a probability distribution. Forecasting a single number is a flawed enterprise. When you forecast a probability distribution, you can see how well you did, and improve.

Despite all the incredible algorithms, data, and model building tools at our fingertips, forecasting is intrinsically an art. But the approach you take matters a lot. Cognitive biases will lead you astray very easily. Starting your forecasting from your personal expertise about the topic is likely to lead to sub-optimal results. I demonstrated how to start with base rate data first, trying hard to avoid bringing in that expertise until you’ve formed a base rate distribution. Then consider how the parameters of your variable differ from the base rate data and use that to adjust the base rate distribution. Explore trends and the simplest models you can come up with, followed by advanced model building.

Finally, invite other people to critique your forecast. Yes, I’m inviting you to criticize my assessment — constructively, I hope. I’ve taken you through the journey to get to that estimate. At the various subjective decision points in that process, how would you have done it differently? Was your forecast dramatically different?

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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Luther Blissett » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:52 pm

I couldn’t believe what I saw when I went out this afternoon to pick up cat food — my neighborhood has a lot of restaurants and bars — and from the crowds it looked like pretty much any other typical, warm St Patrick’s weekend night. Social distancing isn’t working yet and it’s going to go off a cliff pretty soon.

People seem to be treating this like a snow day — work from home, but wait in long lines for brunch and head to packed clubs at night.

Once this merges with camps caused by the opioid crisis, it’s going to be unbelievably ugly and I’m constantly anxious about that.

It’s nice to see everyone though. I really love all the minds here and it’s a bit comforting that there’s still some place to come for the best, most intuitive and most rigorous open source intelligence. I still like the venue, but in the future my vote will probably be with the Solid project, which (when it’s ready) I think will be a great venue for this community: a radical re-decentralization of the Internet, a true “social” “network” without the current trappings of that term, and a secure platform (presumably, with customization).
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Re: Manufactured 'Contagion' - Coronavirus Edition

Postby Luther Blissett » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:57 pm

Also it’s funny that Trump has Coronavirus.
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