Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby DrEvil » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:37 am

MacCruiskeen » Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:02 pm wrote:Dr E, do you feel confident that you will always be allowed to opt out of that app? Maybe for a while, in remote wealthy highly-developed underpopulated Norway. In any case, the majority will eventually opt in, making the refusers all the more conspicuous, as potential health hazards for a start. And of course also as likely subversives, to be watched extra-closely and, if necessary, socially shamed.

Cull the superfluous, control the rest. Now that's a plan. The superfluous are being culled in their millions right now, in India most blatantly and brutally. They are being starved to death and sent on 100-mile marches under the vicious ruling-class pretence that destroying their means of subsistence is the only way to protect their health. And Modi has the gall to beg their forgiveness while he massacres them.

Meanwhile we have the leisure to surf the web and ponder and juggle data as we wish, until we don't anymore, probably sometime very soon indeed.


Honestly, I wouldn't worry about it even if I lived in the US. I worry about government's access to my data in general, but in this case they won't be getting anything they don't already have access to. US carriers have been selling people's location data for years.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:45 pm

8bitagent » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:03 am wrote:I don't know what to believe anymore.


Yeah, that's the whole point. You've Just Been Fucked By Psyops.

JackRiddler » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:38 am wrote:But many of them, such as myself, have not yet arrived at the same conclusions about the present events, seeing an absence of sufficient evidence to be definitive.


It's important to be agnostic, especially in fluid situations. Still, at this point in the game, what concerns me the most about the Gain Of Function thesis on nCoV isn't the absence of sufficient evidence, it's the abundance of it. The narrative is so packed I instinctively suspect a setup, or at the very least, a dossier being handed down.

Have you read the link that Willow posted here? The problem isn't that some of the data points are probably wrong -- ie, the HIV links, or the zoonotic jump timeline -- it's that even if only half of it is true, it's still a remarkably cohesive case, and all documented in the public domain, to boot.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Belligerent Savant » Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:06 pm

.

Wombaticus Rex » Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:45 am wrote:
Have you read the link that Willow posted here? The problem isn't that some of the data points are probably wrong -- ie, the HIV links, or the zoonotic jump timeline -- it's that even if only half of it is true, it's still a remarkably cohesive case, and all documented in the public domain, to boot.


Quite right. Worth reproducing at least part of the piece here (numerous embedded hyperlinks at source):

(this would also explain the ad hoc, reactionary, and at times, bewildered responses from most of our elected -- the word needs to be placed in quotes for some cases -- leaders since this strain began its spread in earnest. A fully scripted Op wouldn't be as... sloppy. They can, and have, improvise[d], however)

Logistical and Technical Exploration into the Origins of the Wuhan Strain of Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Posted on January 31, 2020 by harvard2thebighouse

An accessible and comprehensive YouTube summary of the report below by a Professor of Neurobiology at the University of Pittsburgh’s Medical School is available here. And you can read our takedown of Nature magazine’s recent article claiming COVID-19 definitely wasn’t from a lab here.


This report is the product of a collaboration between a retired professional scientist with dozens of peer-reviewed publications and 30 years of experience in genomic sequencing and analysis, who worked at the Theoretical Biology Division of the Los Alamos National Laboratory and later helped design several ubiquitous bioinformatic software tools, as well as a former NSA counterterrorism analyst. It considers whether the Wuhan Strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) is the result of naturally emergent mutations against the possibility that it may be a bio-engineered strain – directly altered by genetic manipulation, subject to artificially-guided evolutionary selection, or both – most likely released into the public by accident since China’s rate of occupational accidents is about ten-times higher than America’s, and some twenty-times more than Europe’s, the only other regions with high-level virology labs.

Raising the odds of an accidental release, researchers from China’s only BSL-4 lab in Wuhan were reported to have particularly sloppy field research methods, being both bled and peed on by local bats that host coronaviruses remarkably similar to the Wuhan Strain COVID-19. And they’ve also been reported to smuggle used research animals out of their labs, selling them for cash on the street. Perhaps unsurprisingly, in mid February the Chinese Ministry of Science sent out a directive to all its labs emphasizing the important of carefully handling bio-infectious agents and alluding to slack oversight and past lapses, even mentioning coronaviruses specifically.

Mistakes may have been precipitated by the need to quickly finish research that was being rushed for Johns Hopkins’ Event 201 which was held this past October and meant to gameplan the containment of a global pandemic. Research may also have been hurried due to deadlines before the impending Chinese New Year – the timing of these events point to increased human error, not a globalist conspiracy. Beijing has had four known accidental leaks of the SARS virus in recent years, so there is absolutely no reason to assume that this strain of coronavirus from Wuhan didn’t accidentally leak out as well. This is unlikely to be a plot twist in one of the novels Tom Clancy wrote after he started mailing it in.

Simply and horribly, this is likely to become another Chernobyl or Fukushima – a catastrophic illustration of mankind’s hubris and intransigence clashing with Nature, as fate again reaps a once unimaginably tragic toll.

Given that this outbreak was said to begin in early winter when most bat species in the region are hibernating and the Chinese horseshoe bat’s habitat covers an enormous swath of the region containing scores of cities and hundreds of millions people, the fact that this Wuhan Strain of coronavirus, denoted as COVID-19, emerged in close proximity to the only BSL-4 virology lab in China, which in turn was staffed with at least two Chinese scientists – Zhengli Shi and Xing-Yi Ge – both virologists who had previously worked at an American lab which had already bio-engineered an incredibly virulent strain of bat coronavirus – the accidental release of a bio-engineered virus from Wuhan’s virology lab cannot be automatically discounted, especially when the Wuhan Strain’s unnatural genomic signals are considered.

UPDATE 2/14, 3:02am EST: A probable smoking pre-print has been released, by the National Natural Science Foundation of China:
“In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.”


In a predictable turn, that article has been removed and both researchers have since deleted their profiles off of the ResearchGate site completely. Furthering the appearance of a cover-up, back on January 2nd, the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s director sent out a memo forbidding discussion of an “unknown pneumonia in Wuhan” after ordering the destruction of all related lab materials a day earlier, making it abundantly clear that the Chinese government knew about this outbreak long before they took any steps to contain it, or made any public announcement.

These propaganda efforts have been bolstered by possible collusion from American scientists, some of which is detailed below – but also most notably by one Peter Daszak, who had been publishing papers on coronaviruses alongside the primary Chinese person-of-interest, Zhengli Shi, for years. Perhaps most notably, Daszak is listed as a co-author in the paper first documenting the isolation of a coronavirus from a bat that targets the ACE2 receptor – just like COVID-19 – research done in Wuhan’s virology lab and supervised by Zhengli Shi, and led by a second suspect Chinese researcher who you’ll meet below. At best, Daszak is perhaps acting as an unwitting agent of the Chinese government, but regardless holds an enormous conflict-of-interest. And if nothing else, it is wildly irresponsible to speak-out against the possibility that the virus got out of a lab when a natural origin has not been conclusively demonstrated. Daszak’s statement in The Lancet is either incompetence, or is meant to be a smokescreen for the wanton hubris and greed that have fueled the dual-use or “gain-of-function” research detailed below: As one possible related project which may have overlapped with this one, coronaviruses have been seen as a viable vector for an HIV vaccine for years – a project with hundreds of millions of dollars dangling over it.

And unfortunately Daszak is far from alone, there are countless “journalists” mindlessly regurgitating statements from the Chinese government and the WHO with no effort to fact-check whatsoever, as well as “scientists” whose real job is running PR for pharmaceutical and research companies who have spent weeks serving China by making extraordinarily misleading and overconfident statements to the public about the origins and capabilities of this virus. As far back as 2015, Chinese labs were reported to have been involved with dual-use gain-of-function research, mixing and matching viral genomes in the lab. And it should be noted that in 2018, the esteemed scientific journal Nature – which has published numerous articles speciously claiming this virus is definitely natural – was revealed to have buckled to censorship demands from the Chinese government, killing over 1,000 articles to placate their Chinese partners.

Many involved in this dissimulation are effectively acting as agents of a foreign government, and they have left most Americans entirely unprepared for the tragedy that’s beginning to occur in our nursing homes and hospitals. If the idea that just maybe this thing came from a lab had been part of the national dialogue from the start – wouldn’t everyone have been much more cautious and open to social distancing and other limitations once the need arose?

And so being an offshoot of this sort of vaccine program, possibly as a Red Team designed to build defenses and therapeutics against, is just one possible gain-of-function pursuit that would fit some of the unusual genomic and logistical picture below. Whether or not it was the exact target of the Wuhan lab’s genomic tinkering – the reality is millions of dollars of funding from multiple world governments have poured into this research, funding that’s dangled over these scientists as they’ve chased it like Icarus, this time not just risking their own lives – but hundreds of millions of others as well.

Subsequently, we are calling for an immediate end to dual-use gain-of-function research.

/excerpt
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby stickdog99 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:46 pm

JackRiddler » 31 Mar 2020 12:38 wrote:
...

Waiting and seeing doesn't mean we don't keep observing, collecting, and thinking best we can. It also doesn't mean some of us don't call out and also fight (or support fights) against the shit that is visibly and undeniably happening, such as the imposition of violent police states, or the attempted hyperexploitation of the situation by capitalism as usual, or political malfeasance of many kinds, or the total abandonment of people in detained populations, or the impoverishment of whole new groups.


To me, there is far too much undeniable, boldfaced malfeasance occurring every single minute right now in terms of our governments' complete and utter lack of a helpful responses to this crisis (assuming that this is indeed the crisis we have been assured that it is) for me to get too invested in speculating about aspects of this situation that we cannot currently ascertain with certainty.

Even if I imagine I am in a movie and I suspend all my questions about the origins and supposed severity of COVID-19, the events of the movie that have transpired since the initial plot setup make no sense. Almost every rational and helpful response has occurred organically as individuals and small organizations have taken it upon themselves to do whatever they can to help. From the top down, whether at federal, state, or even my own local levels, the response has consisted of letting huge corporations and politically powerful special interests respond to this situation in any way they see fit while using this "crisis" as yet another excuse to hand them trillions. In the meantime, the majority of small businesses have been totally shuttered by law, and the majority of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck have been told only to:

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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby JackRiddler » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:51 pm

.

Yeah, stickdog, agreed. Focusing on and seeking to fight the disaster capitalist practice of crisis exploitation is more or less where I think half the battle is right now.

SOMETHINGS TO CONSIDER ABOUT THE CORONA VIRUS:

By Alonso del Río (Peruvian writer and musician):

Fear takes us back-always-to that ancient corner in our brain where there are only two options: fight or running, in this case run to hide. It seems like from that dark place there's never a third option. Under the empire of fear everything becomes not only simple and clear but also primitive: white or black. We give up "voluntarily" at a greater level of reflection to leave everything in the hands of our little brain tonsil, the government of our nice system (the one who tells you when to pee).

I mean that what is being done to protect children and elderly is all wrong, but maybe by just focusing on that there's a lot we are not seeing.

Probably never clear the origin of this virus. It is spoken from bacteriological warfare, going through the alterations that 5 G can cause to virus mutations that originally live in animals (extinction) that now seek new habitats to thrive. Whatever the origin was, because of the quick and gigantic coverage he had, it looks like they were already waiting for him with red carpet and lights on.

If they did not invented it could not come at a better time to perform a scary essay on how easy it was to decree a military state, suspension of rights and widespread fear in which any different way of thinking would be attacked and destroyed by the own Immune system of terrified society.

More - with the best intention but from the amygdala - society demands the government to " protect " and with the " best " intent the state decides to protect its society. This looks like the bacteriological version of the twin towers.

All energy is set to survive this global " tragedy very soon we forget that until a few months ago the world lived shaken by an immense wave of social protests. From the streets of Hong Kong to La Paz, Quito, Barcelona, Beirut and Santiago de Chile, we have witnessed a giant tide of people taking to the streets to exercise their right to protest and demand change from those in power.

Joseph Goebbels became famous as the creator of social control strategies during Nazism. Faced with Germany's deep social and economic crisis in the 1930 s, the strategy was to create a powerful enemy to fight against. Goebbels disciples do not waste time or opportunities and more, they should be congratulated on their creativity (many friends have perfectly digested the story).

Funny that just when the prestige of the "Chicago boys" is on the floors and when neoliberal promises to take us to a society of widespread consumption and opulence have fallen to pieces, a flu appears that has us all terrified and locked up with house detention. And everyone happy because something darker and fearful finally appeared than capitalism.

Many already know that crisis equals opportunity. But the opportunity is for those who know a crisis is coming or are prepared, so let's look at those who benefits this crisis. To start the dollar and the euro went up 10 %, that is now in Latin America we are 10 % poorer than a month ago. True, all economies suffered a blow. However, it can also be seen as a small "investment" compared to what can be earned in the medium term.

"A small economic investment against great political gain". The biggest beneficiaries are those who profess the ideology of the totalitarian model. "All united against virus threat" there's something that doesn't block me. Part of me says: I already know this story.

It is also remarkable to observe how a collective consensus suddenly " emerged " against the " threat " and any attempt at responsible reflection exploring another point of view was considered highly irresponsible. The ends brush.

Soon we will know who the real winners of this crisis are.
While they say no one wins here, it's not entirely true, the only one winning is Mother Earth, studies and satellite images showed that the coronavirus crisis had reduced China's CO2 emissions by 25 %. In Italy the concentration of nitrogen dioxide (a toxic compound that very negatively affects air quality) has fallen significantly and in Venezia fish returned to the canals!!!.

On the other hand, within the economic war scheme and market dominance one power lost 20 points and another 80, comparatively someone won.

Another point - and rather absurd - is how each country's presidents have their own political goals behind the "pandemic". Some only see a way to show their efficiency (which will become popularity) by the death toll in each country (as if it were a football match), even others like Piñera (whom the virus fell from heaven) that declares a state of emergency and constitutional exception for 90 days?! This Lord is very good, like Take care of the old people. (The measure will involve the exit of the military to "collaborate" with compliance with Executive's provisions).

There is talk that this great effort is to protect populations at high risk especially older adults. But if our elderly really represented more than figures and statistics for governments, they would have already been reported to the AFPs and created a pension-worthy system.

If children were really in their interest they would read at least this news: 8.500 children die every day of malnutrition and according to estimates by Unicef, the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Population Division of United Nations, an estimated 6,3 million children under the age of 15 died in 2017 from mostly preventable causes.

In Mexico alone during May 2018, 93 homicides were recorded per day, (more than a thousand per year) there are also 40 thousand missing and 37 thousand unidentified dead.

And they said, " Yes, but to change all that you need structural changes ". And I said, " So what else can we talk seriously?

The real pandemic originated 50 years ago with absolute control of the media and legalization of weapons of mass stupidity.

If you are moved only by the deaths caused by Covid-19, it will be doable to think something more serious is happening.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Nordic » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:51 pm



This is compelling.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby JackRiddler » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:59 pm

BS, WR, PW:

I promise to turn to the origins question also, though my expertise isn't there. (See how I implied I have expertise in some other field? Hilarious, innit?) The reading passage you reposted BS, originally posted by Willow, is very interesting and in some ways would tickle my own literary biases: to look for blind hubris and colossal if predictable systemic fuck-ups.

But right now my mind remains on two other aspects. One is the violent-state and capitalist exploitation of the unfolding disaster, both of which are escalating.

The other is the shape of the disaster itself, which I absolutely consider to be real but still opaque. So I spent the last hour finally listening to the Ioannidis interview, rather than reading about Wuhan laboratories. It's very much in tune with where my thoughts continue to go. He says all the same things as a couple of us here, but of course with the better vocabulary, caution and thoughtfulness, magnified by the authority of being an acknowledged genius in his field, etc. etc. And he tells you in exactly what ways he may be wrong, and what measurements would be required to figure out whether he is.

So to repost that from a couple of pages ago for those who haven't seen it:

alloneword » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:08 am wrote:The guy that was previously discussed here, interviewed a couple of days ago: Perspectives on the Pandemic | Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford University | Interview


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6MZy-2fcBw
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby alloneword » Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:56 pm

Do also read his latest paper (it's very brief): https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf ... /eci.13222

Frequent hand washing and staying at home and avoiding contacts when sick are probably very useful. Their routine endorsement may save many lives. Most lives saved may actually be due to reduced transmission of influenza rather than coronavirus.

[...]

..if only part of resources mobilized to implement extreme measures for COVID-19 had been invested towards enhancing influenza vaccination uptake, tens of thousands of influenza deaths might have been averted


* Boom! *
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby brainpanhandler » Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:09 pm

Nordic » Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:51 pm wrote:This is compelling.


While I think keeping a sense of humor is a good idea in times like these, I guess I am not 100% certain you are joking. You are joking, aren't you?
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Iamwhomiam » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:47 pm

Nordic » Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:51 pm wrote:

This is compelling.


Unfortunately, it's not. He didn't even check his math. Approximate 8 billion people times 0.1% or 0.001 is 8 million people dying.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:25 pm

Boy, it really is stunning how poor the track record of youtube content creators is. Who can you trust if you can't trust guys who make a living off clicks?

Anyways, here's some asshole:

A Few Facts on the US Response to Covid-19.
by Nick Eftimiades

I have friends who hate the current Administration and ones that love it. No one is shy about showing their feelings. However it seems to me most are uneducated on the response efforts and all that is involved. Allow me to present a few facts on the US response to Covid19.

I think all of you know I am a professor of Homeland Security at Penn State University. Over the last three years I have read every major piece of Homeland Security related legislation, presidential directives, and DHS doctrine. I have worked with DHS and serve on a subcommittee of the Homeland Security Advisory Council. This is such a vast field no one can master all of it. It ranges from pandemics to terrorism, and cyber security to border control.

There are a few noteworthy points on the current situation and USG response:

Since 2005, the government has adopted an “all hazards approach” as its doctrine towards disaster prevention, protection, mitigation, response, and recovery. It means we employ all the same resources whether the problem is natural or man-made.
Homeland security is a shared responsibility between the federal government and states.
First and foremost, disaster planning, prevention, mitigation, and response are responsibilities of the State, not the federal government.
Each year since 2002 federal grants have been provided to states to build capabilities to support their capabilities for protection, prevention, mitigation, response and recovery to catastrophic events.
Last year that figure was over $1 billion. Urban population centers are primary recipients of these grants.

State governors may request federal support under the Stafford Act only if the event exceeds the State’s ability and resources. The President must then declare the event either a Major Disaster or Emergency to release federal support (Usually FEMA and DoD).
There are dozens of USG agencies with homeland security responsibilities.
The US govt. identifies 16 Critical Infrastructure sectors.
85% of critical infrastructure is owned by private industry.

There are 16 Sector Specific Agencies with the oversight of security and response for their specific industries (i.e. Sectors).
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is the lead federal agency for the COVID-19 pandemic response.
The Homeland Security Enterprise comprises federal agencies, State, Local, Territorial, and Tribal governments (SLTT), private industry, NGO’s, first responders, and citizens.

A few concluding thoughts:

New York City was unprepared for, and mismanaged the current crisis despite having time and resources provided. The virus emerged in Seattle (the first 32 deaths out of 50 occurred here) and Los Angeles weeks before New York City. Due to the swift action of those cities the spread was curbed and statistically they have suffered far less casualties.
Federal doctrine, plans, policies, and procedures were in place; stocks of medical and other supplies were not.
The initial response from the administration was slow, possibly losing two to three weeks. It should be noted there is quite often an information void in this type of situation.
The federal government is employing the homeland security “whole of society approach” in responding to this pandemic. Tens of thousands of organizations and over a million people are engaged in the current federal led response effort.
The nation is as close to a wartime footing as it has been since WW II.
Accurately communicating information to the public is a critical component of the national response effort. This effort has been impeded by the following factors:
China’s limiting information and covering up events.
Conflicting opinions (not conflicting guidance) from POTUS and key health officials
Media exacerbating different political leadership opinions and deliberately misreporting facts.
Political infighting between political parties
Shifting blame between some governors and POTUS
Fake News from US and foreign sources
Cyber attacks from foreign sources against health care infrastructure.

SUMMARY:

An information void and probably disbelief delayed the administration’s initial response. HHS and CDC rules and guidelines further delayed federal action on the pandemic. Since the days just prior to the stand-up of the Vice President’s task force, the federal response has since become organized and effective.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Nordic » Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:54 pm

brainpanhandler » Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:09 pm wrote:
Nordic » Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:51 pm wrote:This is compelling.


While I think keeping a sense of humor is a good idea in times like these, I guess I am not 100% certain you are joking. You are joking, aren't you?



Here’s the article in question.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Here’s the relevant quote:

“ If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

What part of this do you think is a joke?
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby PufPuf93 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:04 pm

There are charts and discussion of the mathematics of it all at the link to the entire article.

Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

Here we are, in the middle of a pandemic, staring out our living room windows like aquarium fish. The question on everybody’s minds: How bad will this really get? Followed quickly by: Seriously, how long am I going to have to live cooped up like this?

We all want answers. And, given the volume of research and data being collected about the novel coronavirus, it seems like answers ought to exist.

There are certainly numbers out there. Trouble is, they’re kind of all over the place. For example, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is using models that forecast a best-case scenario in which about 200,000 Americans die, according to reporting by The New York Times. Meanwhile, a report from Imperial College London that made headlines for its dire, modeling-based forecasts predicted about 2.2 million U.S. deaths from the coronavirus, if nobody changes their everyday behavior.

That is, to put it mildly, a freaking huge spread — the difference between a death toll on par with the number of people who die from injury and violence annually in the U.S. and one that’s closer to the number of people murdered when the Chinese communists moved to suppress counterrevolutionaries between 1950 and 1953. It is, in other words, the difference between a number we routinely live with, and one that changes a country forever.

So why is that gap so wide? Well, friends, that’s the nature of modeling this beast. (And one of the reasons why FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have a model of its own. Thanks for your emails asking for one, though.) Using a mathematical model to predict the future is valuable for experts, even if there are vast gulfs between possible outcomes. But it’s not always easy to make sense of the results and how they change over time, and that confusion can hurt both your brain and your heart. That’s why we want to talk about what goes into a model of a pandemic. Hopefully, understanding the uncertainty can help you get the most out of all the numbers flying around.

So, imagine a simple mathematical model to predict coronavirus outcomes. It’s relatively easy to put together — the sort of thing people on our staff do while buzzed on a socially isolated conference call after work. The number of people who will die is a function of how many people could become infected, how the virus spreads and how many people the virus is capable of killing.

Rad on at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... -19-model/
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Iamwhomiam » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:06 pm

SUMMARY:

An information void and probably disbelief delayed the administration’s initial response. HHS and CDC rules and guidelines further delayed federal action on the pandemic. Since the days just prior to the stand-up of the Vice President’s task force, the federal response has since become organized and effective.


An information void? Bullshit! Disbelief is the public reaction. WE're still pitifully unorganized, with states competing with states and now also with FEMA for the same PPG and medical equipment, all trying to outbid each other. Organized and effective, my ass!

What a fucking lame disowning of responsibility by our homeland security, along with an admission of failed intelligence gathering.

Oh, the campaign ads should be fun. Look - here's one now:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uw2W82HE99Q

On edit: And here's another:

https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1241471645233053699?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1241471645233053699&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2020%2F3%2F21%2F1929909%2F-Joe-Biden-Releases-Blistering-He-Knew-Digital-Ad-Hitting-Trump-For-F-ing-Up-Coronavirus-Response
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:07 pm

Elkus has been on a real tear this month, but this one was particularly short and sweet.

(See also "It Only Wants Targets" and "On, Around, Between and Through."

Counter-Disinformation Is Dead

The New York Times maintains a Coronavirus tips and advice section, with an updated publication date (as of this posting) of March 24, 2020 and an initial publication date of March 18, 2020. In response to the question “Should I wear a mask?” the Times writes:

"No. Unless you’re already infected, or caring for someone who is, a face mask won’t help. And stockpiling them can do more harm than good, making it harder for nurses and other workers to access the resources they need to help on the front lines."

On March 17, 2020, the New York Times published an article by Zeynep Tufecki explaining that face masks – not medical-grade respirator masks such as N95 masks but simple disposable surgical masks – do provide some generalized protection for non-infected individuals. And given that many infected individuals do not know they are infected, mask-wearing could also cut down on asymptomatic transmission. Tufecki cited publicly available medical information from reputable sources to support her assertions. More importantly, she observed that Asian countries have informally and formally mandated universal mask wearing to cut down on viral transmission:

"Places like Hong Kong and Taiwan that jumped to action early with social distancing and universal mask wearing have the pandemic under much greater control, despite having significant travel from mainland China. Hong Kong health officials credit universal mask wearing as part of the solution and recommend universal mask wearing. In fact, Taiwan responded to the coronavirus by immediately ramping up mask production."

It is true that improperly worn masks do not help as much as properly worn masks, but publication of instructions for proper fitting and use might help the public properly wear them. It is true that there is a shortage of masks of all kinds, but telling the public an easily discoverable falsehood is not just deceptive but also hilariously incompetent:

"Many health experts, including the surgeon general of the United States, told the public simultaneously that masks weren’t necessary for protecting the general public and that health care workers needed the dwindling supply. This contradiction confuses an ordinary listener. How do these masks magically protect the wearers only and only if they work in a particular field?"

“Masks won’t help” – and specifically “unless you are already infected or caring for someone who is, a face mask won’t help” – is a categorical, simple, and falsifiable assertion. And it is false. Masks do help. Not perfectly. Not without competent use. But they are better than no masks, especially given that many may not know they are infected until it is too late. In a time of mask rationing, it is of course critical that medical staff get masks of any kind so that they can care for the public. But telling people easily discoverable falsehoods may have the opposite intended effect:

"It used to be said that back in the Soviet Union, if there was a line, you first got in line and then figured out what the line was for — people knew that there were going to be shortages and that the authorities often lied, so they hoarded. And when people feel as though they may not be getting the full truth from the authorities, snake-oil sellers and price gougers have an easier time."

Tufecki did not reveal any novel or esoteric information. She merely reported what many people – including the government and citizens of many Asian states – already know. And as of the writing of this post, the updated NYT page still contains the quoted paragraph about masks. And all of this is secondary to the point I am going to make in short order.

The counter-disinformation agenda is dead. I am not going to rehash too much of why it has been decaying here, please read this if you are interested. But it is deader than a dodo.

One of the counter-disinformation agenda’s many assumptions is that disinformation is primarily bottom-up rather than top-down. But the New York Times – not Macedonian teenagers, not Russian bots and trolls, not MAGA red hat posters – is circulating blatant disinformation. And as Tufecki has noted, media actors are likely taking their cues from higher-order entities like the Surgeon General, who have similarly opted to deceive the public.

Another critical assumption of the counter-disinformation agenda is that prestige media sources can be relied on as “ground truth” bases in the wilds of social media. But the New York Times is deceiving its readers, perhaps not realizing that they can read Tufecki’s op-ed – ALSO PUBLISHED AT THE NEW YORK TIMES – that patiently explains how and why it is a deception. So I repeat. The counter-disinformation agenda is dead. I am not here to bury it, I don’t have a mask and I’d rather stay inside.

What the New York Times has done is not the only reason why it is dead, but the baldness of its deception is too symbolically powerful to ignore. The counter-disinformation agenda must be abandoned because its assumptions are clearly no longer tenable. We need a different approach for improving our epistemic health. And it will have to emerge out of the wreckage of the old approach, which is collapsing before our eyes as the virus comes for our friends, colleagues, and loved ones.


Not that Cass Sunstein will stop being a smug prick anytime soon, of course. Death is a process.
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