Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

[Iamwhomiam]

Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

I thought it was because we're dealing with game theory, probability, wave theory and chaos theory, all wrapped into one. How about that!

[chump]

https://youtu.be/DJM-67-WzIw
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[PufPuf93]

Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

I thought it was because we're dealing with game theory, probability, wave theory and chaos theory, all wrapped into one. How about that!

The varied response of humanity set us up for the calamity and has much to do with the uncharted terrain.

BTW Watched that good Stamets mushroom video and went back the next day to say something to you an give thanks but could not find your post with the video. Was the post lost in the combination of threads? Stamets has closed down the sale of any of his varied products available at his website recently.

[identity]

First I am hearing of distancing measures possibly being enforced (in Canada) at least until JULY! Could this mean no restaurants, public gatherings (games, concerts, movies, protests, etc.), recreation/sports activities, pools, libraries, etc. before JULY? Seems like it's a possibility, at least. (I can survive easily with none of these things, but can other people for three or more months [without going nuts]? Not so sure.)

Are any other countries talking this way yet?

“Current GoC [Government Operations Centre] modelling suggests as a best case scenario that current measures continue until at least July.”
That short line, written in a COVID-19 “Daily Sitrep Highlights” by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) on March 30 and obtained by the National Post, is the clearest timeline we’ve seen from the federal government to date on how long Canadians will have to endure measures to fight COVID-19.

Is IRCC referring to social distancing measures such as encouraging self-isolation or banning public gatherings? Or the closure of the Canadian border to most foreigners? Maybe the obligatory 14-day quarantine for those who return to the country? Possibly all or none of the above?

The document does not specify, and spokespeople for IRCC and Public Safety Canada (that oversees the GOC) did not respond to questions by deadline. But the Government Operations Centre is Ottawa’s brain during a national crisis. During such times, some of its many roles are creating risk assessments, “national-level planning and whole-of-government response management,” according to its website.
Thus, it holds a central role in coordinating all the measures put in place by the federal government to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the ones mentioned above. As of now, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has refused to answer specific questions by reporters regarding the government’s internal projections of the spread of COVID-19.

But over the last week, government officials have been hinting that distancing measures would be recommended – or enforced if necessary – for more than just the next few weeks. It's definitely months, many months.

[...]
Later that day, Canada’s deputy chief public health officer, Dr. Howard Njoo, told reporters that Canadians will be in it “for the long haul.”
But again, he shied away from mentioning any specific dates.
“It’s not going to be days and weeks, it’s definitely months, many months. And the one thing that other countries are also looking at, and we’re looking at as well, is that is there a possibility of a second wave? Who knows?” Njoo said. ‘We’re looking at all possibilities and planning for all potential scenarios.”

[Wombaticus Rex]

“ If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

What part of this do you think is a joke?

It's been obvious from the start that nCov wasn't anywhere close to as fatal as SARS or MERS -- and that's a blessing. The problem is the virulence, not the fatalities, although the fatalities will definitely be a huge problem at the peak.

But the mitigation steps are more about preventing & reducing second-order effects than preventing & reducing deaths. It's about what happens when a majority of the first responders in your city are out sick. It's about what happens when your supply chain is being hit by shortages of labor, products and supplies just as your supply chain is being hit by a record high tide of demand. It's about what happens when all 50 states are in a state of emergency and you're out of resources to help them all simultaneously.

People are completely right to point to the fact that a bad flu season kills a shocking number of people -- that's precisely why having two of them at once would be so catastrophic, in the absence of a vaccine or reliable, non-experimental treatment plan for nCoV.

[brainpanhandler]

This is compelling.

While I think keeping a sense of humor is a good idea in times like these, I guess I am not 100% certain you are joking. You are joking, aren't you?

Here’s the article in question.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Here’s the relevant quote:

“ If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

What part of this do you think is a joke?

Holy shit. You're not kidding.

Well, here's a few choice quotes from his rant:

"What you need to understand is that even according to the top expert, Covid19 is NOT (emphasis in original) more deadly than the regular seasonal flu. Let's prove this right now...."

"This is from the New England Journal of Medicine. I'm not going to read all this. I'm gonna leave this for you to read."

"So according to America's top immunologist, Dr. Fauci, we're shutting down the entire world for an illness that has a case fatality rate of 0.1%"

"The government and mainstream media decided to get together, against all logic, against statistics, against the facts and scare people into this authoritarian climate that we're seeing develop all around us right now."


"And what do they say we're up to with covid right now, just in the United States? A little more than a thousand. But how do we know they're not shoving regular influenza viruses into the covid deaths? We don't."

Surely you don't really need me to explain why this is bullshit. Worse than that, it is dangerous bullshit. This guy can go fuck himself.

The nerve of this guy. The first line of the New England Journal of Medicine article he incorrectly cites is as follows: "The latest threat to global health is the ongoing outbreak of the respiratory disease that was recently given the name Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19)."

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

I agree with Dr. Fauci. So much is unknown right now. But the statement above is carefully qualified (see larger font above). The douchebag in your video deliberately mischaracterizes Dr. Fauci's article. He's taking advantage of idiots in order to drive traffic to his carnival of click bait you tube channel. C'mon man.

[Wombaticus Rex]

First I am hearing of distancing measures possibly being enforced (in Canada) at least until JULY!

Been inevitable for awhile, and the fact that so many strategists have the peak for this pegged in the middle of summer -- hardly normal flu season -- was the biggest factor that led me to go back and look into the gain of function issue.

It's tough to get even bounded estimates on the scope of our current situation, but a useful question to guide that project is: When Will This End?

...

Back in the UK, their wonks are currently projecting the peak in June or July:

Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England, said he currently expected that the UK would reach the peak of its outbreak in 10 to 14 weeks time.

...

Here in the US, the CIA's paper of record just published an interactive infographic that puts the peak squarely around July 2020, only varying the number of infections (and note that even their top-bound estimate of 9.4 million is far short of what Congress was being told.) Their model, courtesy of David N. Fisman at U Toronto, assumes a CFR of 1.0 and an r0 of 2.3.

It was the day after I posted that when Trump mentioned in a press conference that his team expected the peak to happen by August. These days, I'm five days behind everything and my mental roadmap is long gone.

[Nordic]

This is compelling.

While I think keeping a sense of humor is a good idea in times like these, I guess I am not 100% certain you are joking. You are joking, aren't you?

Here’s the article in question.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Here’s the relevant quote:

“ If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

What part of this do you think is a joke?

Holy shit. You're not kidding.

Well, here's a few choice quotes from his rant:

"What you need to understand is that even according to the top expert, Covid19 is NOT (emphasis in original) more deadly than the regular seasonal flu. Let's prove this right now...."

"This is from the New England Journal of Medicine. I'm not going to read all this. I'm gonna leave this for you to read."

"So according to America's top immunologist, Dr. Fauci, we're shutting down the entire world for an illness that has a case fatality rate of 0.1%"

"The government and mainstream media decided to get together, against all logic, against statistics, against the facts and scare people into this authoritarian climate that we're seeing develop all around us right now."


"And what do they say we're up to with covid right now, just in the United States? A little more than a thousand. But how do we know they're not shoving regular influenza viruses into the covid deaths? We don't."

Surely you don't really need me to explain why this is bullshit. Worse than that, it is dangerous bullshit. This guy can go fuck himself.

The nerve of this guy. The first line of the New England Journal of Medicine article he incorrectly cites is as follows: "The latest threat to global health is the ongoing outbreak of the respiratory disease that was recently given the name Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19)."

"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

I agree with Dr. Fauci. So much is unknown right now. But the statement above is carefully qualified (see larger font above). The douchebag in your video deliberately mischaracterizes Dr. Fauci's article. He's taking advantage of idiots in order to drive traffic to his carnival of click bait you tube channel. C'mon man.

Why do you care so much about “the guy”? I don’t give a shit about the guy. I only care about the info that he’s presenting.

Which today I presented in an alternate way so you wouldn’t have to have be so distracted by “the guy”.

Honestly it’s why I almost never watch or share videos because I would rather just read the info. But believe it or not I don’t have that much time these days because oddly enough I’m one of the lucky people who has an actual job right now and when I went looking for a link to the actual source I couldn’t find it, maybe because I’m kind of exhausted.

Found it today. There ya go.

[identity]

First I am hearing of distancing measures possibly being enforced (in Canada) at least until JULY!

Been inevitable for awhile, and the fact that so many strategists have the peak for this pegged in the middle of summer -- hardly normal flu season -- was the biggest factor that led me to go back and look into the gain of function issue.

It's tough to get even bounded estimates on the scope of our current situation, but a useful question to guide that project is: When Will This End?

...

Back in the UK, their wonks are currently projecting the peak in June or July:

Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England, said he currently expected that the UK would reach the peak of its outbreak in 10 to 14 weeks time.

...

Here in the US, the CIA's paper of record just published an interactive infographic that puts the peak squarely around July 2020, only varying the number of infections (and note that even their top-bound estimate of 9.4 million is far short of what Congress was being told.) Their model, courtesy of David N. Fisman at U Toronto, assumes a CFR of 1.0 and an r0 of 2.3.

It was the day after I posted that when Trump mentioned in a press conference that his team expected the peak to happen by August. These days, I'm five days behind everything and my mental roadmap is long gone.

This is going to be one... fragrant! Spring/Summer. People on the local /r/ were complaining about the difficulty in finding places to pee when they're out now. At least they can do it at home before they go out, though. With restaurants, rec centres, and libraries closed, as well as many, if not most, grocery/convenience stores and fast food places closing their washrooms to the public, where are the thousands of homeless people and the hundreds living out of their cars/RVs (both of which groups will no doubt find their numbers swelling as things regress) going to do their business? I can see the downtown area (within or near to which the majority of these people spend their waking hours) becoming extremely nasty come June and July.

But at that point, shit piling up and stinking in the street may be the least of our problems.

[Iamwhomiam]

I got a chuckle from your last line.

It exists, and the only thing it wants is targets.

It does not think, it does not feel, and it lies totally outside the elaborate social nuances humans have carved out through patterns of communication,

[Iamwhomiam]

puf

Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

I thought it was because we're dealing with game theory, probability, wave theory and chaos theory, all wrapped into one. How about that!

The varied response of humanity set us up for the calamity and has much to do with the uncharted terrain.

BTW Watched that good Stamets mushroom video and went back the next day to say something to you an give thanks but could not find your post with the video. Was the post lost in the combination of threads? Stamets has closed down the sale of any of his varied products available at his website recently.

Here you go, PufPuf: http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?p=684857#p684857

and the Stamets video link:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7agK0nkiZpA

I haven't been out to see if turkey tail is available locally, but I'm determined to find some somewhere, so I do hope there's a source available that sells a preparation Stamets would approve of, if he no longer offers product. If he's not because of panic demand buying, I sure hope he begins manufacturing more soon. He might not want much to do with that end of it, though, and now only concentrates on research, so hopefully, it can still be found. I'll be sure to let you know whatever I learn.

[PufPuf93]

puf

Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model

I thought it was because we're dealing with game theory, probability, wave theory and chaos theory, all wrapped into one. How about that!

The varied response of humanity set us up for the calamity and has much to do with the uncharted terrain.

BTW Watched that good Stamets mushroom video and went back the next day to say something to you an give thanks but could not find your post with the video. Was the post lost in the combination of threads? Stamets has closed down the sale of any of his varied products available at his website recently.

Here you go, PufPuf: http://www.rigorousintuition.ca/board2/viewtopic.php?p=684857#p684857

and the Stamets video link:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7agK0nkiZpA

I haven't been out to see if turkey tail is available locally, but I'm determined to find some somewhere, so I do hope there's a source available that sells a preparation Stamets would approve of, if he no longer offers product. If he's not because of panic demand buying, I sure hope he begins manufacturing more soon. He might not want much to do with that end of it, though, and now only concentrates on research, so hopefully, it can still be found. I'll be sure to let you know whatever I learn.

Stamets still produces and offers a multitude of products; the sales have just been shut down because of the CV19. His website shows vendors of his products.

Well this is weird and good. I visited his website the day I watched the video yo posted and there was a banner stating that sales were on hiatus because of the CV19. Just went to the site to provide a link for this post and Stamets is back in active sales mode. The large banner I gone and there is a small bar on the online catalogue pages that state, "Please note that due to high demand, order processing and delivery times are currently delayed."

Just now went back and reloaded front page and there is a new banner that says:

"We are once again accepting online orders!
Thank you for your patience and please visit our Information & Updates page for the most current information."

Apparently we are living in real time as far as updates to the website as I type!

https://fungi.com/

Turkey tail capsules are available but looks like may of his mushroom extracts are out of stock.

https://fungi.com/collections/host-defense

[brainpanhandler]

Why do you care so much about “the guy”?

From what I can tell "the guy" is Tim Michaels. And I guess I don't really care about him beyond the fact that he is a douchebag spreading deliberate and potentially dangerous disinfo for profit.

I only care about the info that he’s presenting

Well, if you did, then you would have easily and readily recognized that it was being mischaracterized and would have presented the article itself rather than the bullshit video distorting the article in the NEJM. I mean he repeatedly reads the following sentence from the Fauci article in the NEJM: "This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively." without ever once highlighting or acknowledging the MAY in that sentence.

Which today I presented in an alternate way so you wouldn’t have to have be so distracted by “the guy”.

Honestly it’s why I almost never watch or share videos because I would rather just read the info. But believe it or not I don’t have that much time these days because oddly enough I’m one of the lucky people who has an actual job right now and when I went looking for a link to the actual source I couldn’t find it, maybe because I’m kind of exhausted.

Found it today. There ya go.

Ya, thanks. After watching the video you posted I googled "New england journal of medicine Dr. Fauci" and there was the article in the first result, which I read. It was an exhausting, time consuming exercise. But honestly I did not need to do that to know Tim Michaels (?) is a huckster trying to profit off people's laziness and ignorance. The world really doesn't need any more of that right now.

[identity]

https://endgameconspiracy.com/coronavirus-conspiracy

[Elvis]

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”

The next line of the paper is discernable, something about "efficiency of transmission"? Isn't efficiency of transmission the other important factor in 'ultimate' deadliness? The Guy doesn't mention it, in all of that (wasted) screen time, but what he does do (obviously) is turn a discrete, out-of-context, qualified speculation into a certainty.


Reposting this video, credit to others previously posting it. Doctor John makes a lot of sense to me. Note he says he's in "isolating" himself now, and is "okay with that" because "I'm flying blind" until we get more data. No less important is his impatience with a media circus (come to think of it, circuses are highly organized events)..."this whole...adventure"

The most remarkable thing about this video? In one hour and two minutes (was it edited?), he doesn't touch his face once.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6MZy-2fcBw


One thing is, I read about how with any of these virii the severity of & susceptibility to disease depends on the genetic makeup of the, um, target. Given that "advanced forms of biological warfare...can target specific genotypes [and] may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool," I wonder if a disproportionate number of some politically useful genotype will be killed by COVID-19.