The BBC yesterday posted this helpful graphic (buried under a ton of fear-porn, but hey, they posted it).
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654Imperial College London modelling, used to inform government, has suggested 500,000 could have died by August in the UK if the virus was left to rip through the population.
It also warned the government's previous strategy to slow the spread by asking those with symptoms to self-isolate and shield the most vulnerable could have led to 250,000 deaths.
Now, it is hoped the lockdown will limit deaths to 20,000.
But that does not mean 480,000 lives are being saved - many will die whether or not they get the virus.
Every year, about 600,000 people in the UK die. And the frail and elderly are most at risk, just as they are if they have coronavirus.
Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, at the University of Cambridge, points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same.
I wonder who decided to make it a logarithmic scale?
(I posted an
article by Prof Spiegelhalter on 'Risk' last week).