Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby barracuda » Wed May 20, 2020 9:16 pm

mission dolores.jpg
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Grizzly » Thu May 21, 2020 12:23 am



Still very relevant...
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby 0_0 » Thu May 21, 2020 4:16 am

Cambridge University to hold lectures online until summer 2021 term
May 19 (UPI)

Cambridge University announced Tuesday that it will not hold face-to-face lectures during the next academic year.

The university said that since social distancing procedures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 will likely continue into next year, most lectures will be held virtually.


https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 589928607/

what was sold as a way to temporarily "flatten the curve" is creepingly becoming permanent
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby stickdog99 » Thu May 21, 2020 1:45 pm

barracuda » 21 May 2020 01:16 wrote:
mission dolores.jpg


Why not just rename Mission Dolores Park to Ayn Rand Park? Just restrict each circle to no more than one person each.

San Francisco has already renamed its city department to Parks and Rugged Individualism.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby stickdog99 » Thu May 21, 2020 1:50 pm

0_0 » 21 May 2020 08:16 wrote:
Cambridge University to hold lectures online until summer 2021 term
May 19 (UPI)

Cambridge University announced Tuesday that it will not hold face-to-face lectures during the next academic year.

The university said that since social distancing procedures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 will likely continue into next year, most lectures will be held virtually.


https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 589928607/

what was sold as a way to temporarily "flatten the curve" is creepingly becoming permanent


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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Belligerent Savant » Thu May 21, 2020 3:24 pm

.

barracuda » Wed May 20, 2020 8:16 pm wrote:
mission dolores.jpg


Image



Keep to your allotted space citizen. How long before venturing out of the white circle for anything other than bathroom breaks (the verge of which can be monitored via implanted sensors or bracelets) PRIOR to the 'rental timeframe' (that you reserve in advance, set in hourly increments) will result in an electric shock transmitted to said sensor?

In other news, it appears CDC is making a key retraction. An important one, as it was one of the core reasons restaurants/many non-essential service shops were shut down.

CDC now says coronavirus 'does not spread easily' via contaminated surfaces

Dr. John Whyte, chief medical officer for the health care website WebMD, told Fox News that the CDC's slight update brings clarity and helps to reduce fears.

“Many people were concerned that by simply touching an object they may get coronavirus, and that’s simply not the case. Even when a virus may stay on a surface, it doesn’t mean that it’s actually infectious,” Whyte said. “I think this new guideline helps people understand more about what does and doesn’t increase risk. It doesn’t mean we stop washing hands and disinfecting surfaces. But it does allow us to be practical and realistic as we try to return to a sense of normalcy."


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/hea ... 232748002/
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Thu May 21, 2020 3:54 pm

the CDC's slight update


Holy Fuckin' Soft Sell, buddy. Yeah. Biggest victim of nCoV is definitely gonna be public trust in institutional expertise.

Interesting, complicated update on UNZ: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/corona-ifr-1-percent/

One of the more important articles I've found in the past month: http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-n ... -covid-19/

And an application of that framework to India, which is of interest to me: https://towardsdatascience.com/tracking ... ec286b8df0

Also want to re-post this link, definitely the best article on the subject I've read in the past month, hands down: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-ri ... avoid-them
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby liminalOyster » Thu May 21, 2020 4:43 pm

0_0 » Thu May 21, 2020 4:16 am wrote:
Cambridge University to hold lectures online until summer 2021 term
May 19 (UPI)

Cambridge University announced Tuesday that it will not hold face-to-face lectures during the next academic year.

The university said that since social distancing procedures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 will likely continue into next year, most lectures will be held virtually.


https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News ... 589928607/

what was sold as a way to temporarily "flatten the curve" is creepingly becoming permanent


For academia, this is just a tepid stage one. Next up: 1) permanently freeze new hires, 2) permanently adjunctify all teaching "staff," 3) abolish and or let expire all existing tenure, 4) corporate buyout of viable institutions, 5) closure of all others.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Iamwhomiam » Thu May 21, 2020 7:02 pm

India's going to become a nightmare. Thanks for the links, Rex. The last was great and she deserves applause for writing something accurate about the risks any literate person can make sense of, especially those senseless people insisting on a return to normal- Now!

A few freshman Albany Law students co-authored a letter to the editor the other day denouncing the school's announcement of a tuition increase this fall, especially when they are being denied the services their tuition paid for, like face to face lectures and social interactions the school environment provides.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Belligerent Savant » Thu May 21, 2020 7:30 pm

Wombaticus Rex » Thu May 21, 2020 2:54 pm wrote:
the CDC's slight update


Holy Fuckin' Soft Sell, buddy. Yeah. Biggest victim of nCoV is definitely gonna be public trust in institutional expertise.


Good. Deserved.



Wombaticus Rex » Thu May 21, 2020 2:54 pm wrote:
Also want to re-post this link, definitely the best article on the subject I've read in the past month, hands down: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-ri ... avoid-them


Agreed. A few excerpts:
Note: the author is a Comparative Immunologist and Professor of Biology (specializing in Immunology) at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.
I regularly hear people worrying about grocery stores, bike rides, inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks.... are these places of concern? Well, not really. Let me explain.
...

When assessing the risk of infection (via respiration) at the grocery store or mall, you need to consider the volume of the air space (very large), the number of people (restricted), how long people are spending in the store (workers - all day; customers - an hour). Taken together, for a person shopping: the low density, high air volume of the store, along with the restricted time you spend in the store, means that the opportunity to receive an infectious dose is low. But, for the store worker, the extended time they spend in the store provides a greater opportunity to receive the infectious dose and therefore the job becomes more risky.

Basically, as the work closures are loosened, and we start to venture out more, possibly even resuming in-office activities, you need to look at your environment and make judgments. How many people are here, how much airflow is there around me, and how long will I be in this environment. If you are in an open floorplan office, you really need to critically assess the risk (volume, people, and airflow). If you are in a job that requires face-to-face talking or even worse, yelling, you need to assess the risk.

If you are sitting in a well ventilated space, with few people, the risk is low.

If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for infection. You would have to be in their airstream for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. While joggers may be releasing more virus due to deep breathing, remember the exposure time is also less due to their speed. Please do maintain physical distance, but the risk of infection in these scenarios are low.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Iamwhomiam » Thu May 21, 2020 7:34 pm

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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Fri May 22, 2020 1:52 am

^^Thanks for that, I was going off their business guidelines and their justification for "non-essential" distinctions. Interesting that they were already downplaying surface spread in April. CDC response has been a mix of cultural competence and hitting their own dick with a sledgehammer so far -- kind of a sine-wave oscillation between the two, week to week.

Based on what happened last time around, there will not be big spikes after re-opening. There will be big spikes after everyone has had enough time to argue about what a mistakes lockdowns were. Right around the same time the popular consensus machine starts publishing thinkpieces about "Maybe This Is Finally Over," then we get the spikes.

I was badly mis-timing my predictions in February. Sure, exponential growth is fast once you've got tinder on the fire, but seeding these things, that takes time. I thought Brazil and Mexico and India would be ablaze within mere weeks, and I was wrong. (Even considering that all three of those countries are facing the same incentives to downplay their problems, still, very wrong.)

It's not just down to infection / spread dynamics, though: what we've seen from aggregate data from phones, highways, businesses is that social distancing behavior began prior to social distancing mandates. Government was lagging behind the actions of the populace, hardly a surprise with any administration, but perhaps especially with this one, innit. So while there's a lot of pent-up folks eager to rush outside and breathe in this beautiful weather, that doesn't equal "back to normal" and there will still be a lot FUD -- and more of that there "overabundance of caution."

There will of course be fuckwit kids getting drunk and talking to the camera (again) and lots of ominous shots of crowds mashed together with a telephoto lens at long distance (again) but that's just perception management. Well, maybe terror management would be more apt, I hear they have a whole theory about that. There are definitely a lot of politically motivated actors in the media licking their chops about Red State megadeaths, but the gap between available facts and their desired narrative is gonna be too big.

Until it is suddenly not. We still have ten whole-ass days in May and every one of them will be a Michael Bay movie, just a constant active shooter race war barfight. The middle-end of June, though, is where things will get extra spicy because once this starts up again, there will be a lot of hand-wringing about lessons learned & the need to really coordinate the next lockdown. And that will be happening through the peak of a beautiful summer full of natural disasters on both coasts, and through the descent into the maelstrom of Election 2020. It's fucking impossible, in other words.

Overall: gonna be a long year! Get some sun!
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby JackRiddler » Fri May 22, 2020 8:50 pm

(this is also for the data thread but it seems like a major development)

WTF!

Almost one-quarter of the death in New York has been at nursing homes. And this?!

I expect it's happening elsewhere too.

https://apnews.com/5ebc0ad45b73a899efa81f098330204c

apnews.com
AP count: Over 4,500 virus patients sent to NY nursing homes
By BERNARD CONDON, JENNIFER PELTZ and JIM MUSTIAN

NEW YORK (AP) — More than 4,500 recovering coronavirus patients were sent to New York’s already vulnerable nursing homes under a controversial state directive that was ultimately scrapped amid criticisms it was accelerating the nation’s deadliest outbreaks, according to a count by The Associated Press.

AP compiled its own tally to find out how many COVID-19 patients were discharged from hospitals to nursing homes under the March 25 directive after New York’s Health Department declined to release its internal survey conducted two weeks ago. It says it is still verifying data that was incomplete.

Whatever the full number, nursing home administrators, residents’ advocates and relatives say it has added up to a big and indefensible problem for facilities that even Gov. Andrew Cuomo — the main proponent of the policy — called “the optimum feeding ground for this virus.”

“It was the single dumbest decision anyone could make if they wanted to kill people,” Daniel Arbeeny said of the directive, which prompted him to pull his 88-year-old father out of a Brooklyn nursing home where more than 50 people have died. His father later died of COVID-19 at home.

“This isn’t rocket science,” Arbeeny said. “We knew the most vulnerable -- the elderly and compromised -- are in nursing homes and rehab centers.”

Told of the AP’s tally, the Health Department said late Thursday it “can’t comment on data we haven’t had a chance to review, particularly while we’re still validating our own comprehensive survey of nursing homes admission and re-admission data in the middle of responding to this global pandemic.”

Cuomo, a Democrat, on May 10 reversed the directive, which had been intended to help free up hospital beds for the sickest patients as cases surged. But he continued to defend it this week, saying he didn’t believe it contributed to the more than 5,800 nursing and adult care facility deaths in New York — more than in any other state — and that homes should have spoken up if it was a problem.

“Any nursing home could just say, ‘I can’t handle a COVID person in my facility,’” he said, although the March 25 order didn’t specify how homes could refuse, saying that ”no resident shall be denied re-admission or admission to the (nursing home) solely based” on confirmed or suspected COVID-19.

Over a month later, on April 29, the Health Department clarified that homes should not take any new residents if they were unable to meet their needs, including a checklist of standards for coronavirus care and prevention.

In the meantime, some nursing homes felt obligated and overwhelmed.

Gurwin Jewish, a 460-bed home on Long Island, seemed well-prepared for the coronavirus in early March, with movable walls to seal off hallways for the infected. But after the state order, a trickle of recovering COVID-19 patients from local hospitals turned into a flood of 58 people.

More walls were put up, but other residents nonetheless began falling sick and dying. In the end, 47 Gurwin residents died of confirmed or suspected COVID-19.

Full Coverage: Virus Outbreak

The state order “put staff and residents at great risk,” CEO Stuart Almer said. “We can’t draw a straight line from bringing in someone positive to someone catching the disease, but we’re talking about elderly, fragile and vulnerable residents.”

The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine, known as AMDA, had warned from the beginning that Cuomo’s order admitting infected patients posed a “clear and present danger” to nursing home residents. Now, Jeffrey N. Nichols, who serves on the executive committee of the group, said “the effect of that order was to contribute to 5,000 deaths.”

Nationally, over 35,500 people have died from coronavirus outbreaks at nursing homes and long-term care facilities, about a third of the overall death toll, according to the AP’s running tally.

Cuomo has deflected criticism over the nursing home directive by saying it stemmed from Trump administration guidance. Still, few states went as far as New York and neighboring New Jersey, which has the second-most care home deaths, in discharging hospitalized coronavirus patients to nursing homes. California followed suit but loosened its requirement following intense criticism.

Some states went in the opposite direction. Louisiana barred hospitals for 30 days from sending coronavirus patients to nursing homes with some exceptions. And while Louisiana reported about 1,000 coronavirus-related nursing home deaths, far fewer than New York, that was 40% of Louisiana’s statewide death toll, a higher proportion than in New York.

New York’s Health Department told the AP May 8 it was not tracking how many recovering COVID-19 patients were taken into nursing homes under the order. But it was at that very moment surveying administrators of the state’s over 1,150 nursing homes and long-term care facilities on just that question.

Those survey results have yet to be released. But regardless, the Health Department said, the survey had no bearing on Cuomo’s announcement May 10 that “we’re just not going to send a person who is positive to a nursing home after a hospital visit.”

Cuomo said such patients would be accommodated elsewhere, such as sites originally set up as temporary hospitals.

To some, the governor’s reversal came too late.

“It infected a great number of people in nursing homes who had no business getting infected, including short-term residents who were there for rehabilitation after surgeries,” said John Dalli, a New York attorney who specializes in nursing home cases.

To be sure, incoming residents weren’t the only possible source of infection. Some homes believe a bigger contribution came from staffers and residents unaware they had the virus. And some say they would have taken on COVID-19 patients regardless of the state’s order.

“There were nursing homes that realized that there was a void,” said Sarah Colomello, a spokeswoman for Thompson House in Rhinebeck. The 100-bed facility set up an isolated unit where affiliated hospitals nearby have sent at least 21 patients. It has reported no deaths.

Cuomo administration officials say the original directive came when the governor feared the hospital system would be overwhelmed and was focused on creating as much hospital space as possible.

That was welcomed by one of the many hospital systems and nursing homes surveyed for AP’s count. Northwell Health said three of its medical centers were so overtaxed at one point they had to put some ICU patients in hallways. To relieve pressure, the company eventually sent more than 1,700 COVID-19 patients to nursing homes.

“Suffice it say, our hospitals were under stress,” spokesman Terence Lynam said.

___

Associated Press investigative researcher Randy Herschaft contributed to this report.
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Re: Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

Postby Wombaticus Rex » Fri May 22, 2020 9:08 pm

This is why you have to keep your periscope in everyone's pool, man. Team Red media has been on this heavy since the beginning of April.

You cannot count on partisans to report on anything but the perfidy of their opposition.

This is the key to Barack Obama's "scandal free" administration, which had dozens of scandals that were documented in detail on the sort of websites that .... well, people get upset about when links to 'em get posted here. Have you SEEN what they SAY about Unz?

And I'm not saying they're good websites! They're just the only people with the will to connect those dots. So you have to pay attention and ascertain what's paranoia and what's worth putting on the corkboard.

Related, QAnon research communities are going to expose a lot of human trafficking networks by the end of this year, and their best cover is going to be "this was just some QAnon bullshit" -- because mainstream media will be grateful for that excuse.
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