Coronavirus Crisis: Main Thread

[stickdog99]

[Harvey]

Was given 30% chance of 5 year survival and in year 5.

You're already kicking the odds in the ass.

[stickdog99]

[Joe Hillshoist]

LOL that I can't do math because I try to cast a critical eye on totally cooked official statistics purporting to show the amazing benefits of shitty, leaky, experimental gene therapies that lose 95%+ of their efficacy in roughly 12 weeks and that appear to have negative efficacy against the transmission of omicron.

Every single statistic produced is already inherently skewed in the direction of these shitty, leaky vaccines. The numerator is always skewed toward vaccines because of the definition that you are not "officially vaccinated" until two weeks after you get each of these shots and boosters.

And the denominator is always overestimated for vaccinated populations because current and not historically accurate estimates are made for both the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations and because every locale has every reason to overestimate its own rate of vaccination in any case.

Finally, the unvaccinated population includes the most indigent, linguistically challenged, deathbed ridden, and hospital and doctor fearing individuals in any society. Of course we would expect some death associated with COVID-19 in this population anytime COVID-19 is prevalent. The fact that last week in NSW there were just 11 deaths associated with that entire population under 80 (compared to 64 fully vaccinated) simply cannot be presented as evidence of these vaccine's efficacy, even assuming that these vaccines were as harmless to people as the placebos they now appear to be in terms of their effectiveness.

Why do you laugh? Has nothing about the virus. You looked at a graph (may have been cooked numbers but so what? numbers on a graph) and assessed the graph with zero competence (you could have interpreted the graph in 2 ways and chose the wrong method and your conclusion would be confusing or look really stupid to others that do math as they are backward.

The problem with corona virus is how it mutates. Looks like it will be with us. No one knows what herd immunity or endemic looks like.

How covid has mutated now isn't a problem its a potential benefit.

As the spike protein (that stickdog banged on about re the vaccine a few posts ago) changed in the Omicron mutation it changed to be more affinitive to the upper respiratory tract and bronchial tubes not the actual lung tissue itself. It still targets the same enzyme but in a different way. According to Proif Ravi Gupra's study group at Cambridge uni the virus no longer binds to lung cells the way it did and no longer splita and damages them as it tries to enter them. It doesn't create amalgamations of infected cells along the lung wall (potentially triggering cytokine storms as well) any more.

This change in its behaviour provides an evolutionary advantage. The place where the virus spreads is closer to the atmosphere and because people can still breathe successfully they will pump more of the virus into the atmosphere as they breathe out. Furthermore it creates an evolutionary advantage in thaat because its no longer as dangerous people don't take action to prevent its spread.

While its probably something that can happen, its hard to see the virus mutating into something that gets into the lungs again with such catastrophic consequences, then becoming dominant simply cos it won't have the time to spread as quickly or easily as the Omicron strain does.

For me this reflects an evolutionary process. We have an upper and lower respiratory system and this process has probably happened alot in the hundreds of millions of years since mammals started developing/evolving the respiratory system we now have. The lower respiratory tract is where oxygen is introduced to the bloodstream. Its vulnerable and infection there makes us vulnerable to systemic infection if the infectious material can travel in the bloodstream and bind to organs and blood vessels.

The upper respiratory tract is different. No blood exchange just a long passage with stuff to filter out as many foreign objects and microbes as possible.

The endemic human coronaviruses all target the upper respiratory tract, and while they can cause serious illness and even death its rare.

Covid seems to be following this playbook. Awesome news really.

I actually heard an African doctor describe Omicron as either a natural vaccine or God's vaccine and he definitely put the evolution of Omicron down to divine intervention.

Anyway take care, try and hang around as long as you can yeah. I like your posting and it would be good to enjoy it for a few years yet.

[stickdog99]

UPDATE - Correlation between Increased Mortality rates and the Vaccination programme in England

One of the most informative datasets released in the UK is from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and looks at deaths involving COVID-19 by vaccination status. The reason that it is interesting is because not only does it break down Covid deaths by age and vaccination status but also non-Covid deaths and all cause mortality.

You can read the ONS’ summary here or look at the whole dataset for yourself here.

One of my first articles I wrote on substack looked at this information up to September 2021. I hypothesised that “If the above observations are correct, then with 3rd dose vaccinations under way, we can predict the following: Once the data is broken down by age group, mortality rates will increase as vaccination rates intensify. There will be more all cause additional deaths than COVID deaths and these may be mistakenly categorised as deaths in the 2 dose group, as opposed to the 3 dose group. This mis categorisation may be used as evidence of waning vaccine efficacy and used to encourage people to get boosters."

This latest dataset looks at deaths occurring between 1 January and 31 December 2021, so covers the initial booster rollout. I will look at each age group in turn starting with the eldest.



As we saw in the previous analysis, as the first dose vaccination programme peaks in February, unvaccinated deaths (blue line) also peak. As the second dose programme peaks in May, so do >21 days after 1st dose deaths (orange line). Now we can see, as hypothesised would happen in my previous article, as the booster programme begins in September, >21 days after 2nd dose deaths (grey line) begin to rise. We can also see the mortality rate of boosted individuals (yellow and light blue lines) rise but this reaches a par with the unvaccinated mortality rate, so is to be expected.

Why does the unvaccinated mortality rate shoot up during 1st dose vaccinations, they haven’t been vaccinated? Why does the 1st dose mortality rate shoot up after second dose vaccinations, they haven’t had a second dose? And now, why does 2nd dose mortality rates shoot up, as boosters begin, when they haven’t had a booster? There is clearly a mis categorisation issue happening and there is clearly an increase in deaths whenever a new round of vaccinations begin. What other reason would there be for non-Covid deaths to go up just when vaccinations start?



The same thing happens for the 80-89 age group. Why would non-Covid mortality rates increase just when the vaccination programme begins and peak as it levels off?

70-79



Same thing for the 70-79 age group but the curves are starting to shift to the right as vaccinations start later in the year the younger the age group.

60-69



Again, the peaks are shifting to the right, the later the vaccination programme for that age group begins.

50-59



40-49



With this younger age group, the pattern is still there but with a few differences. This time there is an early >21 days after 1st dose peak (orange line) coinciding with when the vaccine was rolled out for people with health conditions. There is then a later peak coinciding with the second dose rollout. Most people in this age group had only just had their boosters, if at all, so will barely be showing in the data yet.

18-39



Again with the youngest age group, the pattern is still there but the peaks coinciding with when people with health conditions had the vaccine are most obvious. Clearly, the younger population coped much better with the vaccine, unless they had other health problems. This breakdown in age was not available in my original article and so this pattern was not apparent. As with the 40-49 age group, most people in this age group had not had a booster by December so the uptick in mortality rates is unlikely to be seen until January or February 2022 (although it will be modest as the highest increase in mortality will be those with health conditions and can be seen already in the yellow and light blue lines).

So, my hypothesis from almost two months ago was correct, in so far as there is a rise in non-Covid mortality as the booster campaign began. Furthermore, it seems as though those deaths have been mis categorised as they are showing up in the 2nd dose group (less so in the younger age groups). This group has not had a third vaccination so why else would their mortality rate shoot up?

In the next article, I will look at whether there were more non-Covid deaths than Covid deaths and what patterns can be spotted in that data.

[stickdog99]

ADE showing in the Boosted UK Omicron data?

Big differences in the rates between boosted and unvaccinated

It’s that time of the week when the latest UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance data is released.

The report has been publishing unadjusted rates of COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation and death in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Recently they changed the vaccinated population they were comparing from persons with at least 2 doses to persons with at least 3 doses.

In previous weeks, almost through embarrassment, the unadjusted infection rates for unvaccinated persons have been printed in a lighter font colour. This is because they were showing that, in general, the unvaccinated were much less likely to have been infected with Covid when compared with the vaccinated. This is still the case, but they have stopped trying to hide the chasm and the numbers are back in black again.

The UK’s cases have been almost exclusively Omicron since mid December so it is safe to say that all these rates concern Omicron infections or reinfections.

Let’s take a look at the rate of change in the infection numbers from last week to this week in the boosted versus the unvaccinated.



As you can see, in all age groups for the unvaccinated (except for the under 18s) there has been a drop in case rates over the last week. Similar reductions occur for both boosted and unvaccinated in all the age groups over 50. However, for the 18-49 age groups, whilst the rates are dropping in the unvaccinated, in the boosted group they are growing by between 10-20%.

Why would this be happening in these age groups? One explanation is that the over 50s had their boosters a while ago so are in the peak of their antibody production meaning they are in a similar position to the unvaccinated. However, the younger age groups have only just got boosted and so may be in a period of immunosuppression or the antibodies produced are actually facilitating infection, a form of ADE.

You can see in the graph below that the over 50s reached a high level of boosted vaccination a while ago whilst the circled under 50s is much more recent.



Hospitalisations are virtually identical to the previous week so I’ll skip them and move straight on to deaths within 28 days of a positive test.



In the younger age groups, numbers are fairly small, so rate changes will jump around a bit but in the older age groups, who have been boosted for a while, the trends should be more stable. It is quite obvious from the graph above that death rates are increasing in all age groups above 29 for the boosted and either decreasing, static or slightly increasing (70-79) in the unvaccinated.

A similar trend is occurring in the rates of change in the deaths within 60 days.



Although the rate of change is increasing in a number of unvaccinated categories, it is clear that all boosted groups (over 29) are experiencing much higher rates of change.

As the Pfizer documents showed, ADE was a major concern for them and the vaccine rollout. As this article reported, it had been observed that “a syndrome of “disease enhancement” has been reported in the past for a few viral vaccines where those immunized suffered increased severity or death when they later encountered the virus or were found to have an increased frequency of infection”.

The report stated that there is a theoretical risk of [ADE] occurring either before the full vaccine regimen is administered or in vaccinees who have waning immunity over time.

Both of these theoretical risks may be occurring right now and showing up in the data presented above.

[stickdog99]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ly-trends/

All countries with more than 150,000 cases of COVID last week, ranked by cases per million in population

1. Denmark 49,352 (2.26 vaccine doses per person)
2. Israel 41,741 (1.94 vaccine doses per person)
3. Portugal 34,712 (2.14 vaccine doses per person)
4. Netherlands 32,363 (1.95 vaccine doses per person)
5. France 30,909 (2.04 vaccine doses per person)
6. Switzerland 26,114 (1.76 vaccine doses per person)
7. Austria 25,457 (1.96 vaccine doses per person)
8. Belgium 24,866 (2.07 vaccine doses per person)
9. Czechia 23,683 (1.58 vaccine doses per person)
10. Sweden 21,327 (1.92 vaccine doses per person)
11. Germany 14,353 (1.96 vaccine doses per person)
12. Italy 13,429 (2.15 vaccine dose per person)
13. Spain 11,532 (1.92 vaccine doses per person)
14. Romania 11,043 (0.86 vaccine dose per person)
15. Chile 10,851 (2.44 vaccine doses per person)
16. UK 9.009 (2.03 vaccine doses per person)
17. Poland 9,009 (1.38 vaccine dose per person)
18. Australia 8,351 (1.96 vaccine doses per person)
19. Turkey 8,050 (1.68 vaccine doses per person)
20. USA 7,366 (1.63 vaccine doses per person)
21. Argentina 6,706 (1.94 vaccine doses per person)
22. Brazil 6,126 (1.71 vaccine doses per person)
23. Russia 6.026 (1.06 vaccine doses per person)
24. Peru 5,587 (1.66 vaccine doses per person)
25. Ukraine 5,164 (0.69 vaccine doses per person)
26. Japan 4,435 (1.64 vaccine doses per person)
27. Iran 2,218 (1.58 vaccine doses per person)
28. Mexico 1,896 (1.28 vaccine doses per person)
29. India 949 (1.21 vaccine doses per person)

Among these 29 nations, there is a positive correlation of 0.52 between doses per person COVID-19 cases in the last week.

[Belligerent Savant]

Satire is Dead. This is NOT the Onion:




https://www.vice.com/en/article/akvng5/ ... t-research

And dupes will do it.

They're toying with the maskers now.

[drstrangelove]

They altered the Israeli death data. Went to check it today and Feb 2nd records 1 death. When I checked it yesterday Feb 2nd was 200+. This is the data set on the chart which shows up when you just google "Israel covid".

Worldometer doesn't even have an entry for the 2nd. Just skips over it from the 1st -3rd: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/israel/

[Grizzly]

Quite convenient...
Leaving only Anthony Fauci as the lone HIV voice.
https://time.com/3003840/malaysia-airlines-ukraine-crash-top-aids-researchers-killed-aids2014-mh17/

[PufPuf93]

Was given 30% chance of 5 year survival and in year 5.

You're already kicking the odds in the ass.

Thank you, Harvey.

Maybe time for that Recipes and How to Cope with the shit storm we are experiencing thread?

[PufPuf93]

How covid has mutated now isn't a problem its a potential benefit.

As the spike protein (that stickdog banged on about re the vaccine a few posts ago) changed in the Omicron mutation it changed to be more affinitive to the upper respiratory tract and bronchial tubes not the actual lung tissue itself. It still targets the same enzyme but in a different way. According to Proif Ravi Gupra's study group at Cambridge uni the virus no longer binds to lung cells the way it did and no longer splita and damages them as it tries to enter them. It doesn't create amalgamations of infected cells along the lung wall (potentially triggering cytokine storms as well) any more.

This change in its behaviour provides an evolutionary advantage. The place where the virus spreads is closer to the atmosphere and because people can still breathe successfully they will pump more of the virus into the atmosphere as they breathe out. Furthermore it creates an evolutionary advantage in thaat because its no longer as dangerous people don't take action to prevent its spread.

While its probably something that can happen, its hard to see the virus mutating into something that gets into the lungs again with such catastrophic consequences, then becoming dominant simply cos it won't have the time to spread as quickly or easily as the Omicron strain does.

For me this reflects an evolutionary process. We have an upper and lower respiratory system and this process has probably happened alot in the hundreds of millions of years since mammals started developing/evolving the respiratory system we now have. The lower respiratory tract is where oxygen is introduced to the bloodstream. Its vulnerable and infection there makes us vulnerable to systemic infection if the infectious material can travel in the bloodstream and bind to organs and blood vessels.

The upper respiratory tract is different. No blood exchange just a long passage with stuff to filter out as many foreign objects and microbes as possible.

The endemic human coronaviruses all target the upper respiratory tract, and while they can cause serious illness and even death its rare.

Covid seems to be following this playbook. Awesome news really.

I actually heard an African doctor describe Omicron as either a natural vaccine or God's vaccine and he definitely put the evolution of Omicron down to divine intervention.

Anyway take care, try and hang around as long as you can yeah. I like your posting and it would be good to enjoy it for a few years yet.

You obviously are much more on top of things than I.

"How covid has mutated now isn't a problem its a potential benefit."

My thought is that now may well be true and that is the hope but later is open to question. If there is more corona virus out there but not as serious with Omicron, what is to keep another more serious mutation or multiple mutations at the same time to occur? Omicron is now, time is long. That existing corona viruses are limited to upper respiratory but Delta et al are lower, even considering that the protection from Omicron might dull with time and lower respiratory be an open field for a new variant? I'm blabbering here. Distrustful at this point of positive talk that the end is near or Omicron is the solution not another face of many.

Now it does not matter if a lab leak or offensive action or chance, covid is here. I hope you are correct that this covid is following the playbook of the existing endemics.

Thank you. Have zero desire to exit. All I've got is intuition and a shadow of former rigor that comes and goes. Frustrates me.

[Joe Hillshoist]

You obviously are much more on top of things than I.

"How covid has mutated now isn't a problem its a potential benefit."

My thought is that now may well be true and that is the hope but later is open to question. If there is more corona virus out there but not as serious with Omicron, what is to keep another more serious mutation or multiple mutations at the same time to occur? Omicron is now, time is long. That existing corona viruses are limited to upper respiratory but Delta et al are lower, even considering that the protection from Omicron might dull with time and lower respiratory be an open field for a new variant? I'm blabbering here. Distrustful at this point of positive talk that the end is near or Omicron is the solution not another face of many.

Now it does not matter if a lab leak or offensive action or chance, covid is here. I hope you are correct that this covid is following the playbook of the existing endemics.

Thank you. Have zero desire to exit. All I've got is intuition and a shadow of former rigor that comes and goes. Frustrates me.

Mutations occur all the time but they need to be mutations that improve how something works. In this case how the virus spreads itself to more hosts.

Now it replicates in the airway at much higher rates and doesn't damage the lungs to anything like the old level, if at all. So the infected person keeps breathing strongly and pumping more virus into the atmosphere. That is an evolutionary advantage.

I'm not an expert but it seems that the change that makes it harder to replicate in the lungs and easier to replicate in the airway is an either or type change. It either replicates more easily in the lungs or in the airway but not both. The actual mechanics of what happens as the virus binds to the host cell are different. So it seems its one or the other. Its 70 times more productive in the airway than it was previously and is 10 times less productive in the lungs according to that Cambridge mob. Its producing more of itself and doing it in a way that makes it easier to spread.

[Belligerent Savant]

Was given 30% chance of 5 year survival and in year 5.

You're already kicking the odds in the ass.

Thank you, Harvey.

Maybe time for that Recipes and How to Cope with the shit storm we are experiencing thread?

Brief interjection to correct the quoted bit above, stated by PufPuf, not me (I inserted his handle in the quote).

Despite his apparent disagreements with my 'style' or 'investigative tactics' -- we're largely anonymous handles in an archaic messageboard, so I don't hold grudges here -- it is commendable, and a celebration, whenever anyone can beat given survival odds.

Cheers to you, Puf.

[stickdog99]