https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/what ... ed-in-maui...
What Caused the Wildfires?From looking at the available information, I feel certain the following are true:
•Some of the wildfires were sparked by downed electrical power lines.
•Fierce winds knocked the power lines over.
•Fierce winds made the fires spread rapidly.
However there are two things, I am much less sure of.
First, were those winds were due to the hurricane? In the interview with Dr. Malone at the start of this article, a very strong case is made that they could not have been due to the hurricane—something at least one mainstream outlet is now beginning to acknowledge. If the winds were not due to the hurricane, this is important for people to be aware of, as the mainstream media will almost certainly try to argue that it was and hence that Hawaii’s government had no culpability in what happened. Instead, it will simply be argued that Lahaina proved it is critical to continue our War Against Climate Change (which as a lifelong environmentalist, I believe has been extremely detrimental to the environmental movement).
Second, I am unsure if all the fires were started by downed power lines, as numerous ones erupted over a very short time span, some started in areas without power lines, and I was told some of those locations were also far enough from the road that it is unlikely they were started by a cigarette being thrown out the window. For example, this video was recently shared with me by a reader:
Assuming that is the case, it means the most probable explanation for some of the fires was deliberate arson, which becomes even more probable given that (as discussed in Dowd’s interview) Maui has a longstanding arson issue.
It’s less clear who the arsonists were, as locals have told me that amongst other things, cars will periodically be stolen, stripped of parts, and then set alight in a field to hide the evidence but it is also possible something more nefarious occurred that was deliberately intended to burn Lahaina down. When I looked further into this, I came across a report stating that a suspicious individual may have been seen in the same location where one of the fires later started, but since that witness was not confident in what they saw, I wasn’t sure what to make of it.
Note: Wildfires also broke out on two other Hawaiian islands and may also provide an important part of the picture for what happened.
What Turned the Fires into a Disaster?When disastrous events occur and root cause analyses are performed after the fact, a frequent observation is that numerous small errors compounded to form a catastrophe a situation analogous to that described by Murphy’s Law—“Anything that can go wrong will go wrong, and at the worst possible time.” Because of this, the normal goal of a root cause analysis to identify those errors and put policies and procedures in place so that they cannot happen again. Sadly, they typically do not get adopted until a major disaster (or multiple similar ones like California and then Maui’s wildfires) occur that prove their necessity.
For example, in the infamous 1911 Triangle Shirt Waist Fire, 146 workers died because a variety of terrible policies were followed such as locking the exit door shut so workers would not attempt to take breaks during their shift (leading to them being trapped inside once the fire started and forcing many to jump to their deaths to flee the fire). Outrage at the disaster in turn led to fire codes and laws to protect laborers being implemented across the state of New York.
In addition to Hawaii Electric making catastrophic blunders, Maui’s government did as well. Some of these are difficult to believe, but I am relatively sure all are true:
•Firefighters took a long time to respond to fires. I heard reports I deem to be credible that emergency services had to be repeatedly contacted (e.g., for over an hour) to respond to a fire that had started. Likewise, many believe Maui’s firefighters left Lahaina prematurely after extinguishing the initial blaze, which many suspect allowed it to reignite into a much more devastating blaze. Both of these indicate Maui had a systemic shortage of necessary fire fighting resources.
•No warnings were sent out to people in Lahaina—either over cell phones or with the sirens (which are regularly tested to warn Hawaiians of a potential tsunami). Thus far, the government has not provided an acceptable explanation for this profound failure which killed a lot of people (currently it is being argued the sirens might have caused people to inappropriately flee to higher grounds). Because of these failures, many did not realize the fire was coming until their house was on fire.
•In Lahaina, one witness reported that electrical power went out and cell phone service switched to emergency calls only prior to heavy winds hitting the area (which in turn preceded the fires hitting the area). I still am not sure what to make of this, but it helps to explain why residents were unable to warn each other of the impending fire.
•The fire hydrants in Lahaina (and in Kula the other major fire site) stopped working.
Exactly why this happened is still unknown (e.g., its theorized that houses combusting depressurized the water system—although that has not typically been observed in fires).
•Maui’s deputy director for water resource management refused to release water to landowners near Lahaina after it was requested to the supply the firefighters. When the water was finally released 5 hours later, it was too late.
•Police blocked the exits from Lahaina and refused to open them up when individuals attempted to flee the fires—as a result, only those who disobeyed the police officer, knew backroads to take, used a bicycle or fled on foot (e.g., to the ocean) survived. This is an incredible accusation, but multiple witnesses have attested to this on camera, and people I trust independently corroborated it.
Note: This closure may have been in part due to a minor fire earlier in the day, or a fear of a downed power lines further down the road. The police officer who blocked the road trapping everyone in the fire zone stated that he did so because he was ordered to, which has made many suspect the police leadership made a catastrophic blunder (or worse).•Schools were closed because of the early morning fire near Lahainaluna High School. Many children may have thus been home alone while their parents were at work and not prepared to flee their homes when the fires arrived.
If each of these is looked at in isolation, they could be explained by poor training or a general lack of competence. However, when viewed together, they become much more suspicious.
Note: I also suspect the older construction of Lahaina (which may not have not been up to code due to having been grandfathered in) likely made it more vulnerable to a fire engulfing it. Likewise, many residents had no real understanding of wildfires and thus were not prepared to react quickly to the risks they were facing (as Dr. Malone explained, being inside one can be terrifying and disorientating, especially if you have no prior familiarity with them)....
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