Market Crash Watch Party

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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Belligerent Savant » Mon Aug 05, 2024 3:12 pm

.
No control or access to financial accounts, at least not for the plebes.


BREAKING: It has now been 1.5 hours since the market opened and users at Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, Ameritrade, and E-Trade are still unable to access their accounts.

The volatility index, $VIX, just hit its third highest level in history.

Yet, retail traders are unable to buy or sell.

Image

Charles Schwab just put out a message saying they are trying to "resolve the issue as quickly as possible."

Unfortunately, markets have already made massive moves in both directions.
...
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1820474573550506109
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby DrEvil » Mon Aug 05, 2024 3:45 pm

Can't let the plebes sell first and tank the value. As soon as they've offloaded their own positions everything will magically work again. Same thing they did in 2008.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Elvis » Mon Aug 05, 2024 6:08 pm

when people buy crypto the crypto exchanges buy treasuries


This is so hilarious. :rofl2
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Elvis » Mon Aug 05, 2024 6:20 pm

That Treasury "explainer" page doesn't really explain things very well.

PufPuf93 » Mon Feb 20, 2023 3:51 pm wrote:Useful (data heavy with clear explanations) link on USA National Deficit and National Debt courtesy of treasury.gov

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/america ... l-deficit/



The notion that a currency-issuing national government must borrow its own currency leads to some serious confusions:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WvrQDQDKns

Jared Bernstein is a nice guy and in ways a good economist who's done some good work.

But he cannot explain the existence of money.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Elvis » Mon Aug 05, 2024 6:22 pm

In the economy as a whole, the dollars used to buy Treasury securities (and pay federal taxes) can only come prior federal spending.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Belligerent Savant » Fri Nov 01, 2024 10:31 am


The Labor Department has revised the last TWO jobs reports LOWER by a combined 112,000 jobs.

Initially reported numbers showed that the US added 254,000 jobs in September which was just revised down by 31,000, to 223,000.

At the same time, the August jobs report was revised down by 81,000 jobs, from 159,000 to 78,000.

8 out of the last 11 jobs reports have now been revised lower.

Neary, 1 MILLION jobs have now been revised LOWER over the last 2 years.

Image
....

Downward jobs revisions are so frequent, we should look at the data with a 1-month lag.

In fact, it's possible that the October jobs report could be revised into NEGATIVE territory.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1852329906967064716
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Elvis » Sat Nov 02, 2024 12:18 am

A federal job guarantee solves this.

Belligerent Savant » Fri Nov 01, 2024 7:31 am wrote:

The Labor Department has revised the last TWO jobs reports LOWER by a combined 112,000 jobs.

Initially reported numbers showed that the US added 254,000 jobs in September which was just revised down by 31,000, to 223,000.

At the same time, the August jobs report was revised down by 81,000 jobs, from 159,000 to 78,000.

8 out of the last 11 jobs reports have now been revised lower.

Neary, 1 MILLION jobs have now been revised LOWER over the last 2 years.

Image
....

Downward jobs revisions are so frequent, we should look at the data with a 1-month lag.

In fact, it's possible that the October jobs report could be revised into NEGATIVE territory.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1852329906967064716
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Belligerent Savant » Sun Nov 03, 2024 9:10 pm

"a federal job guarantee solves this"

-- in a vacuum, perhaps. But what would be the criteria for such a proposal? Would it be mandated/'imposed' on ALL the jobless (I imagine a certain percentage may not want to participate, which in turn will have ripple effects on its efficacy/desired results)? Any 'forced' or 'mandated' labor imposed on the population raises numerous ethical considerations.

-- I presume this only applies to American citizens or legal aliens, correct? If yes, then it doesn't solve for one of the numerous issues, currently, with illegal aliens.

-- what would be the catch of a 'job guarantee'? i.e., for those that will need a job in order to feed themselves/their families, what may they need to give up in exchange (their privacy, autonomy, etc)? Would there be some sort of 'smart contract' or 'social credit system' construct whereby their pay may be suspended or frozen if they are, say, fined for a moving violation, or are behind in certain payments, etc?

- Etc.

ANY "federal" involvement in a System that's currently Deeply Compromised is a dangerous proposition.

Once again: in a vacuum, in an ideal world, within a relatively fair and/or relatively sound System, ideas like "federal job guarantees" may work.

But we are -- demonstrably/brazenly, to the point that it's arguably absurd I even need to type this/spell this out -- in a Highly Corrupt, Deeply Compromised & Captured System.

As such, most if not all core Leftist principles proposed for practical application within current structures are in almost all respects Pure Fantasy, now and in the foreseeable future.

Or perhaps put another way: any "Leftist" ideals, as presented and applied within this current System, will practically & functionally operate as highly repressive, regressive, & totalitarian.

(Of course the same would apply to any 'Right-leaning' ideals within this current System. We may well see that play out over the next few years...)

Once again, I point you to the 'Covid response' as but one recent example of ostensibly "good intentions" causing immense harms and violations of ethics/human rights. AND, of course: NOT EFFECTIVE AT ALL in solving for the purported aims.*


*the cynic -- like me -- will say that it was actually HIGHLY EFFECTIVE in achieving its aims, but those (actual yet sub rosa) aims are wholly antithetical to those presented to the public.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Elvis » Mon Nov 04, 2024 10:10 pm

Belligerent Savant wrote:But what would be the criteria for such a proposal?

The criteria is the unemployment rate—the number of people seeking paid work but not finding it in the private sector. The only way to really know how many willing workers are seeking jobs it to offer a job to all takers capable of working at a job. When nobody shows up at the local Employment Office looking for work—that's full employment.

Belligerent Savant wrote:Would it be mandated/'imposed' on ALL the jobless[...]? Any 'forced' or 'mandated' labor imposed on the population raises numerous ethical considerations.

Completely false concerns. The only thing imposed, involuntary, and mandated is unemployment. It's official US policy to at all times keep a portion of willing workers out of jobs—ostensibly to avert or fight inflation. This is a facet of neoclassical "trickle-down" economic theory.

The job guarantee offers a job to laid-off workers who are looking for work but can't find a private sector job, or to anyone who wants or needs employment (say e.g., after quitting an abusive employer) at a living wage.


Belligerent Savant wrote: I presume this only applies to American citizens or legal aliens, correct?

The vast majority of job guarantee workers would be people who were working at a job last week, but were laid off (likely in some private equity "efficiency" measure). The idea is to end involuntary unemployment, and keep workers in fit working shape so that when the business sector is hiring again they have a large pool of employed workers to hire from. Business does not like to hire anyone who hasn't been working (source of the long-term underclass of permanently unemployed); it's risky, and they will always prefer to hire somone who's currently working.


Belligerent Savant wrote:what would be the catch of a 'job guarantee'? i.e., for those that will need a job in order to feed themselves/their families, what may they need to give up in exchange (their privacy, autonomy, etc)?

It would be like any other job. It's a job program, managed by local non-profits organizations who are already doing valuable work. Your neighbors. The catch is, if you fuck up, don't show up, don't do the work, get into fights, etc.—you get fired. The leading proposals suggest a three-strikes-and you're out (banned from the program) rule.

The job guarantee program is not a panacea—it does not solve all the problems associated with employment. What it does solve is the systemic problem of forced unemployment for people willing and able to perform a job, and all of the manifold social and economic ills that come with a policy of involuntary unemployment.


Belligerent Savant wrote:ANY "federal" involvement in a System that's currently Deeply Compromised is a dangerous proposition.

This is a preposterous notion with regard to guaranteeing the right to employment. Society is compromised by a collection of bogus economic theories that impose austerity on the population, not least by forcing some given percentage of willing workers out of jobs. The personal, social and economic costs of this policy are enormous.

Current Fed policy is to try to lower inflation by putting more people out of work. They raise their interest rate in an attempt to increase unemployment. It's a kind of national insanity—and not least because it doesn't work unless rates are set stupidly high (ala Volcker); the Fed's recent rate hikes did not lower employment or "bring wages down"—Powell's explictly stated goals.


Belligerent Savant wrote: a Highly Corrupt, Deeply Compromised & Captured System

Exactly—and forced levels of involuntary unemployment are a key aspect of the corrupt, captured system of control. Involuntary unemployment is a tool of control. There's no rational justification for it.


Belligerent Savant wrote:most if not all core Leftist principles proposed for practical application within current structures are in almost all respects Pure Fantasy, now and in the foreseeable future.

That's because the current structures are rightwing, neoclassical "trickle-down" structures that keep working people in debt and afraid of losing their jobs. Americans have lost the ability to imagine anything better. Margaret Thatcher famously told us that "There Is No Alternative" to austerity economics, and even that "there is no such thing as society"—how are these beliefs panning out? Have a look around.


Belligerent Savant wrote: any "Leftist" ideals, as presented and applied within this current System, will practically & functionally operate as highly repressive, regressive, & totalitarian.

This is just kneejerk reactionary talk, slapping on the "Leftist" slur and shutting down any possibility of a more beneficial economy. This current System is what perpetuates the use of unemployment as a system of control. "Necessitous men are not free."


Belligerent Savant wrote:ostensibly "good intentions" causing immense harms and violations of ethics/human rights.

:roll: LOL. Offering laid-off workers a local job does not cause "immense harms and violations of ethics/human rights"! It's exactly the opposite—the policy of maintaining levels of involuntary employment causes immense harms, it's a clearly unethical political choice, and it amounts to a violation of human right per the UN charter. In the vast industrial market economy, there must be an employer of last resort, and only the national government can provide it.

Comparing the US Covid response to an employer of last resort program is like saying that Social Security can never work because the economic system is corrupt. There's no analogy—except that Social Security is being corrupted, step by step, by the billionaire funders of the far right.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby DrEvil » Tue Nov 05, 2024 9:35 pm

Elvis » Tue Aug 06, 2024 12:08 am wrote:
when people buy crypto the crypto exchanges buy treasuries


This is so hilarious. :rofl2


Funny how you never see anyone bragging about holding 50 BTC worth of ETH.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Belligerent Savant » Tue Jan 21, 2025 11:32 pm

@WOLF_Financial

Nancy Pelosi and Inverse Cramer outperformed every hedge fund in America last year.

We don’t live in a serious timeline.

Image

Image


https://x.com/WOLF_Financial/status/1879310085467394233

Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker

@PelosiTracker_
BREAKING: Pelosi did it

She officially finishes 2024 up 54% and beat out Inverse Cramer for the top portfolio on Autopilot

Never doubt the queen of ...

Image

https://x.com/PelosiTracker_/status/1874859312616759754
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Belligerent Savant » Tue Jan 21, 2025 11:37 pm

Elvis » Mon Nov 04, 2024 9:10 pm wrote:
Belligerent Savant wrote:But what would be the criteria for such a proposal?

The criteria is the unemployment rate—the number of people seeking paid work but not finding it in the private sector. The only way to really know how many willing workers are seeking jobs it to offer a job to all takers capable of working at a job. When nobody shows up at the local Employment Office looking for work—that's full employment.

Belligerent Savant wrote:Would it be mandated/'imposed' on ALL the jobless[...]? Any 'forced' or 'mandated' labor imposed on the population raises numerous ethical considerations.

Completely false concerns. The only thing imposed, involuntary, and mandated is unemployment. It's official US policy to at all times keep a portion of willing workers out of jobs—ostensibly to avert or fight inflation. This is a facet of neoclassical "trickle-down" economic theory.

The job guarantee offers a job to laid-off workers who are looking for work but can't find a private sector job, or to anyone who wants or needs employment (say e.g., after quitting an abusive employer) at a living wage.


Belligerent Savant wrote: I presume this only applies to American citizens or legal aliens, correct?

The vast majority of job guarantee workers would be people who were working at a job last week, but were laid off (likely in some private equity "efficiency" measure). The idea is to end involuntary unemployment, and keep workers in fit working shape so that when the business sector is hiring again they have a large pool of employed workers to hire from. Business does not like to hire anyone who hasn't been working (source of the long-term underclass of permanently unemployed); it's risky, and they will always prefer to hire somone who's currently working.


Belligerent Savant wrote:what would be the catch of a 'job guarantee'? i.e., for those that will need a job in order to feed themselves/their families, what may they need to give up in exchange (their privacy, autonomy, etc)?

It would be like any other job. It's a job program, managed by local non-profits organizations who are already doing valuable work. Your neighbors. The catch is, if you fuck up, don't show up, don't do the work, get into fights, etc.—you get fired. The leading proposals suggest a three-strikes-and you're out (banned from the program) rule.

The job guarantee program is not a panacea—it does not solve all the problems associated with employment. What it does solve is the systemic problem of forced unemployment for people willing and able to perform a job, and all of the manifold social and economic ills that come with a policy of involuntary unemployment.


Belligerent Savant wrote:ANY "federal" involvement in a System that's currently Deeply Compromised is a dangerous proposition.

This is a preposterous notion with regard to guaranteeing the right to employment. Society is compromised by a collection of bogus economic theories that impose austerity on the population, not least by forcing some given percentage of willing workers out of jobs. The personal, social and economic costs of this policy are enormous.

Current Fed policy is to try to lower inflation by putting more people out of work. They raise their interest rate in an attempt to increase unemployment. It's a kind of national insanity—and not least because it doesn't work unless rates are set stupidly high (ala Volcker); the Fed's recent rate hikes did not lower employment or "bring wages down"—Powell's explictly stated goals.


Belligerent Savant wrote: a Highly Corrupt, Deeply Compromised & Captured System

Exactly—and forced levels of involuntary unemployment are a key aspect of the corrupt, captured system of control. Involuntary unemployment is a tool of control. There's no rational justification for it.


Belligerent Savant wrote:most if not all core Leftist principles proposed for practical application within current structures are in almost all respects Pure Fantasy, now and in the foreseeable future.

That's because the current structures are rightwing, neoclassical "trickle-down" structures that keep working people in debt and afraid of losing their jobs. Americans have lost the ability to imagine anything better. Margaret Thatcher famously told us that "There Is No Alternative" to austerity economics, and even that "there is no such thing as society"—how are these beliefs panning out? Have a look around.


Belligerent Savant wrote: any "Leftist" ideals, as presented and applied within this current System, will practically & functionally operate as highly repressive, regressive, & totalitarian.

This is just kneejerk reactionary talk, slapping on the "Leftist" slur and shutting down any possibility of a more beneficial economy. This current System is what perpetuates the use of unemployment as a system of control. "Necessitous men are not free."


Belligerent Savant wrote:ostensibly "good intentions" causing immense harms and violations of ethics/human rights.

:roll: LOL. Offering laid-off workers a local job does not cause "immense harms and violations of ethics/human rights"! It's exactly the opposite—the policy of maintaining levels of involuntary employment causes immense harms, it's a clearly unethical political choice, and it amounts to a violation of human right per the UN charter. In the vast industrial market economy, there must be an employer of last resort, and only the national government can provide it.

Comparing the US Covid response to an employer of last resort program is like saying that Social Security can never work because the economic system is corrupt. There's no analogy—except that Social Security is being corrupted, step by step, by the billionaire funders of the far right.


Imagine earnestly believing any of the proposals as espoused by Elvis above -- however just, ethical or well-intentioned -- have ANY FUCKING CHANCE AT ALL OF EVER COMING TO FRUITION in this current iteration of reality (and/or 'The Systems in place'). And to pre-emptively cut off your would-be retort ("It's mindsets like yours that prevent such measures from occurring.." etc. and/or any similar variants): even if you manage to obtain majority consensus on the above measures -- which will never happen, but let's say for the sake of argument that you did -- the notion that such measures will carry on in perpetuity without compromise, corruption, and eventual ruin is comically (tragically) naive.
Actually: It's naive to presume it will even begin as advertised/outwardly announced. Within current systems, the standard practice is that it's irrevocably infiltrated/compromised from the very start, regardless of outward presentation.

Holy shit, the level of delusion among a significant percentage of humans. It's a trip, truly.

We can't be any FURTHER AWAY from any of these causes your suggesting above. And your boy (former, or current -- whatever) BERNIE is certainly NOT going to get anyone closer to it. Nor will AOC (ha!). Or anyone else currently within the System.

By all means, you and anyone else can continue to subscribe to such fanciful notions.

I won't spoil the ending for you.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Elvis » Thu Jan 23, 2025 12:11 am

Belligerent Savant wrote:Imagine earnestly believing any of the proposals as espoused by Elvis above -- however just, ethical or well-intentioned -- have ANY FUCKING CHANCE AT ALL OF EVER COMING TO FRUITION

Kalecki agreed back in 1943. You need to read Kalecki to begin to understand a job guarantee. https://delong.typepad.com/kalecki43.pdf


Belligerent Savant wrote:): even if you manage to obtain majority consensus on the above measures -- which will never happen

Ignorance speaks volumes.

https://delong.typepad.com/kalecki43.pdf
Since 2018, nine publicly available polls, summarized in a table below, have tested the popularity of a federal job guarantee, including two that we at the Center for Working-Class Politics (CWCP) conducted. In short, the answer is yes, Americans clearly support a job guarantee. On average, polls have found 59 percent support for such a measure, though, as with all polling, the range of support varies widely depending on how the question is framed.

Support for a job guarantee is remarkably consistent across key demographics, including partisanship. A 2023 survey by Data for Progress, for example, found that while Democrats were more likely to support the policy than other voters (88 percent of Democrats responded favorably), independents were also overwhelmingly supportive (74 percent), as were a solid majority of Republicans, particularly those under forty-five.

Likewise, a 2022 survey we conducted with YouGov and Jacobin found that 56 percent of independents and a respectable 46 percent of Republicans favored a job guarantee (81 percent of Democrats were in favor). The survey also found that 65 percent of respondents who did not vote in the 2020 presidential election felt positively about a job guarantee, indicating the proposal’s potential value in motivating low-engagement voters. A 2018 poll conducted by Civis Analytics similarly pointed to the broad ideological appeal of a job guarantee, finding that voters who switched from Obama to Trump in 2016 showed a 29 percent net approval for the policy.

I think it's about time the American people get what they want. Instead, they get excuses.

Belligerent Savant wrote:the notion that such measures will carry on in perpetuity without compromise, corruption, and eventual ruin is comically (tragically) naive.

You have failed to explain how mass unemployment is better than mass unemployment. You prefer to keep willing workers out of jobs in order to control prices keep workers in fear.

"It seems to be what we have now is a political system which has essentially become, for the last thirty or forty years, a war on the human imagination."

—David Graeber


Belligerent Savant wrote: the level of delusion among a significant percentage of humans

You lack the imagination to create a better world. You are exactly like the US liberals who are afraid of any real change. Please stand aside, you're blocking progress.


Belligerent Savant wrote:We can't be any FURTHER AWAY from any of these causes your suggesting above.

We're one depression away from finally rejecting 'trickle-down' ideology. If Musk gets his way, that will come sooner rather than later.


I'm curious—why do you favor unemployment over employment? Why do you side with the financial elite? Does it give you a feeling of empowerment?
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby DrEvil » Thu Jan 30, 2025 7:35 pm

Because he's a dyed-in-the-wool republican in everything but name. The contempt for anything left of Clinton is palpable. He's a walking talking GOP ad. Left bad. Unions bad. Trans bad. Green bad. Biden bad. Trump *crickets*. Abortion bans *crickets*. Nazi salutes *crickets*.

You know... he's a salt of the earth type.
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Re: Market Crash Watch Party

Postby Belligerent Savant » Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:09 pm

.

Elvis puts words in my mouth or misinterprets my messaging, and then continues to display tragic blindness to the realities of the current system.

I am just 1 person: surely if these changes can happen as you believe -- WITHOUT COMPROMISE OR CAPTURE -- they will indeed happen relatively soon. My cynicism would NOT impede such progress.

As such: let's re-connect on this in a year and see where we are, eh? Or how about 5 years? Or 10? Spoiler Alert: the end-result will be the same as the (laughable) "Humans will land on Mars!" claims.

Stubbornly continuing to hack at branches rather than striking at root causes for the ills we continue to endure. Not only is your rhetoric no longer commendable, it's quite foolish, and a detriment. So long as the likes of you and other "well intentioned" rubes are out there avoiding painful truths, the wolves will continue to plunder.

---

DrEvil's typically vapid take is expected at this point. No reply warranted.
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