BitCoin

[Belligerent Savant]

bitcoin fixes el salvador.jpg

Snapshot in time. It wasn't intended to be a 1-2 yr experiment. Let's see how it plays out by end of 2023.

And I type the above NOT as a proponent, necessarily, of using Bitcoin as legal tender. As I've typed many times here and elsewhere, CBDC/smart contracts/Digital IDs are a real threat to human agency and autonomy.

Bitcoin may be a Trojan Horse, ultimately (despite the fact it's the best available option for decentralization relative to all other cryptocurrency). Time will tell.

That said: FIAT currency, particularly the U.S. dollar under current/historical 'management' (the Federal Reserve et al.) is certainly not going to 'save' us. Greenspan's philosophies sure as hell are NOT going to benefit any average American under the current system.

The last two sentences should not need to be typed, here.

[Elvis]

The dollar -- and other FIAT currencies -- have arguably been quite volatile as well over the same timespan.

Comparison doesn't hold up well...

USD Inflation vs BTC Price.jpg

How does Bitcoin have no mechanism for universal adoption if it's already adopted worldwide by institutions, governments, and individuals?

For the reasons outlined above—financial instruments carry an obligation and a redemption; bitcoin is a speculative "thing" that promises nothing. "Adoption" so far is experimental—and not going well. Regulations will make bitcoin even less money-like (if that's possible).

Interest is one of the key mechanisms for most loans, historically, for FIAT currencies, needless to say. Why shouldn't an individual benefit as a bank does?

Yes, interest on bank loans are the profits that (ideally) assure that borrowers are creditworthy and bad loans are minimized. The interest income ends when the loan is repaid.

The difference is that an individual owning, say, $100M in Treasury bonds enjoys a permanent free income just for having lots of dollars. This is rentier income. A rentier "is someone who earns income from capital without working. This is generally done through ownership of assets that generate yield (cash generated by assets), such as rental properties, shares in dividend paying companies, or bonds that pay interest."

I haven't said that rentier income from bonds is always bad; that's why I say, my feeling is "no," the wealthiest among us should not be given free money just because they have lots of it. This is a problem with the current interest rate hikes—they produce what Mosler calls a "firehose of free money" to govt bond holders—guaranteed income for the rich. It worsens inequality which is already at the highest levels. On the other hand, yield-bearing securities (even high-yield ones) can play a socially positive role in the policy weeds.

[Elvis]

FIAT currency, particularly the U.S. dollar under current/historical 'management' (the Federal Reserve et al.) is certainly not going to 'save' us. Greenspan's philosophies sure as hell are NOT going to benefit any average American under the current system.

In the speech excerpt, Greenspan wasn't proffering philosophies, he was describing operational realities. That said, Greenspan certainly did have some detestable philosophies (essentially Ayn Rand libertarian extremism) and held to the "trickle-down" theories that have caused so much damage and human suffering. In fact, Greenspan said that he conducted monetary policy as if we were on a gold standard.

The field of mainstream economics still labors under such neoclassical/monetarist 'trickle-down' fake science as the notion of a "natural rate of unemployment" just for one. This includes the Fed's current interest rate regime, which, effective or not at present moderate levels, is designed to throw people out of work and reverse wage gains. Powell is explicit about trying to force both higher unemployment and lower wages.

Those are policy errors—ideological garbage—not any intrinsic defect of a fiat money system itself, which is the default mode of money for 5,000+ years.

[Belligerent Savant]

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Love that the above graph Re: U.S. inflation stopped at 2020! Would like to see one that extends into 2022..

Certainly, Bitcoin has been markedly more volatile in prior years. But FIAT has been quite volatile as well more recently.

A cynic may argue this is at least in part by design as a means to eventually carve a path for CBDC adoption. Time will tell.


Also, I agree much of the issue with FIAT comes down to policy errors, as you point out. The system should operate well overall if not for those meddling bureaucrats/federales messing with the default mechanisms.

That's why I qualified my statement with:

"FIAT currency, particularly the U.S. dollar under current/historical 'management' (the Federal Reserve et al.)..."

[Elvis]

A cynic may argue this is at least in part by design as a means to eventually carve a path for CBDC adoption.

A silly paranoid cynic, maybe, because it's highly doubtful that the corporate price-setters who are jacking up prices give a fuck about a CBDC.


A well-designed CBDC could be an extremely useful & beneficial tool, not least for bypassing the many private financial intermediaries who perpetually skim off wealth they didn't earn.

The thing about a CBDC is, it's digital—you can engineer it to do (or not do) just about anything you want in terms of its money nature.

[Belligerent Savant]

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You must be living in a hermetically sealed isolation chamber to earnestly believe CBDCs will be 'useful' to everyday humans in a way that preserves fundamental rights, or that CBDCs, regardless of outward presentation, will be anything other than an added form of subjugation to the detriment of the masses.

"Silly paranoid cynic" -- says the 'anti-capitalist' that quotes Greenspan w/out irony and shows zero outward awareness that the way money works in theory, as depicted in whatever wonky material you've been immersing yourself in the last few years, does NOT, in any real-world rendering, reflect what's ACTUALLY going on.

A spectacle to behold.

Keep the heads firmly buried in the sand, folks.

[Belligerent Savant]

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Rhetorical question:

How many of you here have any experience at all working in a white-collar or hi-profile publicly-traded company?

How many of you have worked with digital currencies in any capacity?

How many of you have any inside intel on investigations or litigation involving financial crimes, blockchain tech, corporate fraud or ponzi schemes, or were involved in assisting in SEC/FTC inquiries or subpoenas?

I have over 20 yrs experience in these areas (5yrs or so in digital assets specifically). I don't just fucking read articles about them online.

I'd venture a guess that many here have minimal real world exposure to the topics raised in this thread.

[DrEvil]

Decentralization in general is a threat to the current power structures, and very much so when it comes to currency, which is the one thing the Bitbugs always ignore. They just assume everyone will eventually start using it and libertarian techbro Nirvana will commence. What will really happen is the second it becomes an actual threat it will be utterly destroyed or co-opted into the prevailing structures and become just another currency with none of the supposed benefits and all the downsides.

Extracting snippets from the above:

Decentralization in general is a threat to the current power structures, and very much so when it comes to currency, which is the one thing the Bitbugs always ignore.

What's a "Bitbug"? If you mean a proponent of Bitcoin, then you're largely incorrect. To the contrary, they are acutely aware of the State's opposition to decentralization. It's one of the core reasons many adopt Bitcoin as a concept, minimally. Where did you get this notion of yours? It has no bearing on the sentiment of those interested in this space.

It's a play on gold bug - people who are extremely bullish on gold. And you misunderstood what I was saying, they're not ignoring that decentralization is a threat to tptb, they're ignoring that as soon as they become a threat they will be crushed. If Bitcoin ever does become a common currency it will be under the control of the government, and it will be regulated just like any other currency. All the benefits of decentralization will disappear, replaced with a hornet's nest of the usual money institutions running all the layers that will be needed on top of the blockchain to make it minimally useful and compliant with regulations. It will just become "dollars, but on the internet".

They just assume everyone will eventually start using it and libertarian techbro Nirvana will commence.

This is really little more than a broad brush over-generalization and misrepresentation. You are ascribing what may apply to a minority to an entire class of individuals that encompass myriad politics, forms and amount of income, and philosophies on money, government, and way of life.

If one doesn't have first-hand, extended exposure into the factors and individuals involved in this space, generalizations like the above may be a common misconception.

[removed unnecessary editorial]

Come on, Bitcoin fans lean heavily libertarian, it's the whole point of the thing: decentralized currency/asset outside government control. Sure, there's plenty of normal people into it too, but they don't give a shit about the ideological underpinnings, they just want to make a quick buck and are piling on out of FOMO. It could be anything - tulips, beanie babies, gold, etc.

[Elvis]

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You must be living in a hermetically sealed isolation chamber to earnestly believe CBDCs will be 'useful' to everyday humans in a way that preserves fundamental rights, or that CBDCs, regardless of outward presentation, will be anything other than an added form of subjugation to the detriment of the masses.

"Silly paranoid cynic" -- says the 'anti-capitalist' that quotes Greenspan w/out irony and shows zero outward awareness that the way money works in theory, as depicted in whatever wonky material you've been immersing yourself in the last few years, does NOT, in any real-world rendering, reflect what's ACTUALLY going on.

A spectacle to behold.

Keep the heads firmly buried in the sand, folks.

No, I'm actually reading outside the narrow band of fear-mongering.

Have you read [b]any of the articles I posted about CBDC design?[/b] Do you have any awareness of how a CBDC is being approached at the Fed? Or do you just prefer to wring your hands over your powerlessness before the great inevitable and monolithic subjugation befalling us?

Does Klaus Schuab actually rule over you and leave you no space for action?

Where did I say that I'm "anti-capitalist"?

You're again confusing Greenspan's technical observations of the money system with any ideology he has.

What's actually GOING ON? Real people working in "wonky" spaces are designing the policies. The "wonky" space is where policy gets made.


I have posted many resources for you, You seem to ignore them all.

[Belligerent Savant]

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This may be the prelude to market crashes, leading to an entry point for CBDC. TBD.


https://www.linkedin.com/posts/anessaal ... er_android

More on the SEC's dual-pronged assault of what remains of U.S.-based Exchanges:

SEC's Latest Crackdown Could Drive Crypto Firms Out of the U.S.

Companies such as Coinbase and Binance may not want to, but they could be forced to focus their efforts elsewhere.

Jun 6, 2023 at 5:19 p.m. EDT

Some industry experts say the SEC’s recent actions against U.S.-based Coinbase and Cayman Islands-based Binance could be a net positive for companies operating in the U.S, given the regulatory clarity they could help bring in the long run. In the short to medium term, however, these actions could force these firms to focus their efforts elsewhere.

“Regulatory pressure does create an incentive for exchanges to move overseas; for the digital asset industry specifically, it’s a much easier shift because there are no factories to move,” said Jason Allegrante, Chief Legal and Compliance Officer at infrastructure firm Fireblocks.

Coinbase recently announced it received a license to offer its services in Bermuda, where it reportedly plans to set up a crypto-trading platform outside of the U.S. The exchange is also doubling down on its operations in Canada, which has tightened its regulations for crypto firms but allowed Coinbase to sign an enhanced Pre-Registration Undertaking, signaling its intent to comply with the coming new regulatory framework.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/ ... of-the-us/

And:

...Oanda senior market analyst Ed Moya said the SEC "looks like it's playing Whac-A-Mole with crypto exchanges," and because most exchanges offer a range of tokens that operate on blockchain protocols targeted by regulators, "it seems like this is just the beginning."

Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin has been a paradoxical beneficiary of the crackdown.

After an initial plunge to a nearly three-month low of $25,350 following the Binance suit, bitcoin rebounded by more than $2,000, exceeding the previous day's high. It was trading just below $27,000 at 0410 GMT.

"The SEC is making life nearly impossible for several altcoins and that is actually driving some crypto traders back into bitcoin," explained Oanda's Moya.

BROKER, EXCHANGE CRACKDOWN

Securities, as opposed to other assets such as commodities, are strictly regulated and require detailed disclosures to inform investors of potential risks. The Securities Act of 1933 outlined a definition of the term "security," yet many experts rely on two U.S. Supreme Court cases to determine if an investment product constitutes a security.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-sec-su ... 023-06-06/


The next 6-12 months will reveal quite a bit about the extent these actions are part of a set up for calamity to follow..

(Side-note: I realize I never looked at Elvis' reply above. Will need to do that next time I'm back here. Too late now to look at it as I anticipate it will cause me to begin drafting a response, which is ill-advised at this late hour.)

[Agent Orange Cooper]

WBD669 - WBD Live in Miami - The Money Printing Debate with
@JeffSnider_AIP
&
@LynAldenContact
. They debate:
- Is QE money printing?
- Can the problem with money be solved?
- Do we need banks?
- The emergent phenomenon of money & Bitcoin

SHOW DESCRIPTION
Jeff Snider is Head of Global Research at Atlas Financial Advisors and Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, they debate whether QE is money printing, if the Treasury market broke in early 2020, dollar shortages, whether there’s an ideal form of money, the importance of Bitcoin, and the problems with central and commercial banks.

- - - -

Lyn Alden and Jeff Snyder are two of the popular economic experts in the Bitcoin space at the moment. They bring much-needed clarity to discussions on economic and financial systems that are lacking in mainstream media. They do, however, disagree on some fundamental issues. This show is a fascinating discourse between two heavyweights who are at the top of their game.

The discussion starts with a debate on the mechanics and implications of quantitative easing (QE), and the role of central banks and commercial banks in money circulation. Lyn and Jeff explore whether QE constitutes money printing, the impact of fiscal deficits on inflation, and the liquidity problems in the treasury market.

The discussion then focuses on the emergence and acceptance of different currencies in the global market (including Bitcoin), the role of central banks, the importance of a currency's availability and infrastructure in its acceptance, and the challenges of achieving a self-contained monetary system without central banks or authorities.

Lyn and Jeff cover the relationship between debt and economic growth, the concept of a "bail-in," and the need for a sensical monetary structure with the right rules and parameters. They also consider whether there is an ideal money, or, whether the monetary system needs to be dynamic such that it can evolve and adapt to a changing world where new demands arise.

https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/ ... ing-debate

[Belligerent Savant]

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For Whatever It's Worth:

@crypt0e

So...
Apparently, a miner sold everything and Jump Trading was involved. The hash rate is back to ATH, confirming the activity. They went heavy on leverage using the Japan carry trade, which is now blowing up. Bitcoin and the entire crypto market are crashing due to a huge sell order triggered by a time-based algorithm, active for the past seven trading days at 10am ET. This sell-off is expected to intensify with the Japanese market opening, driven by recent US stock crashes, Japan's economic struggles, and fears of renewed conflict between Iran and Israel. Meanwhile, Blackrock continues buying the dip, aiming to corner the crypto market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitco ... japan-open

...

Jump Trading is a proprietary trading firm specializing in algorithmic and high-frequency trading strategies. Founded in 1999, the firm operates globally and engages in various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, equities, futures, and options. Jump Trading is known for its use of cutting-edge technology and complex algorithms to execute trades rapidly and efficiently.

@WazzCrypto

Jump have been moving coins relentlessly for at least 22 hours straight

That means they got ppl to work fuckin SHIFTS dumping their books on an illiquid weekend following the worst stock market day in years

This is a conscious decision to inflict the maximum amount of pain

...

https://x.com/crypt0e/status/1820167698698875121

[Belligerent Savant]

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Sam Tan
CEO of BioNexus (NASDAQ: BGLC)

#UnpopularOpinions

What happens when 95% of BTC is bought by Corporations and Government Central Banks?

Bitcoin has been hailed as a transformative force in finance—a decentralized, deflationary asset designed to challenge the traditional systems of money and power. It’s undeniable that Bitcoin and blockchain technology have opened doors to new ways of thinking about wealth, value, and sovereignty.
But as we reflect on the current state of the market, a question arises: are we inadvertently concentrating power in a different form?

When institutions and large players acquire significant amounts of Bitcoin—sometimes financed through debt—it creates a new dynamic. Bitcoin, originally envisioned as a peer-to-peer currency, increasingly resembles a reserve asset held by a select few.

Here’s where the discussion gets interesting:
1. What happens when Bitcoin’s scarcity means that most of it is locked away in reserves, held by entities that do not intend to transact with it?
2. If Bitcoin’s role shifts predominantly to being a store of value, what does this mean for individuals who aspire to use it as a currency, empowering self-determination and financial freedom?
3. What do the remaining 10-15% of retail funds do when the last Bitcoin is mined, and the vast majority of Bitcoin is in the hands of a few funds?
4. Is there a risk that the narrative of decentralization could be overshadowed by growing centralization of ownership?

This isn’t a critique of Bitcoin’s revolutionary potential, I am a cryptocurrency advocate. Blockchain protocols have immense promise, from enabling asset-backed currencies to democratizing finance and bringing greater control back to the hands of individuals. But true decentralization means diversification of participation, opportunities for all, and empowering communities to determine their own financial paths.

As an advocate for innovation and sustainable financial systems, I believe the future lies in diversity, democratization, and self-determination—principles that apply not just to Bitcoin, but to the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Let’s ensure these ideals guide us as we build a more equitable financial future.

...

Jonathan Austin
Product Innovating & Consulting for SaaS, Blockchain

If BTC becomes digital gold held by a few:
• Loss of Decentralization: This undermines Bitcoin’s fundamental principle of promoting financial democratization and its role as an alternative to the US dollar, ultimately leading to...
• Market Manipulation: Few players can control supply, price, and volatility. Which might enable...
• Centralized Mining Power: Risks network integrity and could lead to a 51% attack or Fee Manipulation: Dominant miners could impose exorbitant fees, effectively pricing out smaller users, thereby limiting the network's accessibility to only a select few, meaning a need for...
• Regulatory Crackdowns: stricter global regulations, which may lead to...
• Erosion of Trust: Contradicts Bitcoin’s financial sovereignty and fairness promise.
• Liquidity Lock-Up: Hoarding Bitcoin limits its circulation and practical utility as a currency, potentially stagnating its development and leading to...
• Wealth Centralization: Mirrors traditional financial systems Bitcoin sought to disrupt, and we end up where we started
• Reduced Accessibility: Higher barriers for retail users, increasing wealth inequality and wealth control
One thing BTC cant do is change human nature.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sam-tan- ... er_desktop

[Elvis]

It's so funny that the bitcoin kings want the government to absorb their risk. Fucking unreal.

At least some bitcoiners are starting to ask the right questions.

1. What happens when Bitcoin’s scarcity means that most of it is locked away in reserves, held by entities that do not intend to transact with it?
2. If Bitcoin’s role shifts predominantly to being a store of value, what does this mean for individuals who aspire to use it as a currency, empowering self-determination and financial freedom?
3. What do the remaining 10-15% of retail funds do when the last Bitcoin is mined, and the vast majority of Bitcoin is in the hands of a few funds?
4. Is there a risk that the narrative of decentralization could be overshadowed by growing centralization of ownership?

I like 1. — the US govt should buy all the bitcoin and do nothing with it.

Reminder that bitcoin has no mechanism for universal adoption as a currency.

[Elvis]

To get the people to need bitcoin, you will have to get the people in debt for bitcoin.

I wonder, is that the plan? But how?